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Over 2.5

Footy Trader said:
Sometimes 2 of 3 the strategies select the same match. If that happens I place a 2 point bet on that particular game. This happened for the Dalkurd match yesterday and also the Elfsborg game tonight, but for logging my bets on this forum I'm just saying 1 point on all matches.
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If you're using a different staking plan personally to what you mentioned in your first post, then you won't achieve the same PL and yield as to what you highlighted there as well. If the more promising picks don't get bet on X2 as you suggested yesterday, you very likely won't get that 11%-odd points per month average with this trial.
You are starting the trial with a 100pt starting bank after all, so why not offer your picks with a multiple point per bet as well ?
 
paulb164 said:
If you're using a different staking plan personally to what you mentioned in your first post, then you won't achieve the same PL and yield as to what you highlighted there as well. If the more promising picks don't get bet on X2 as you suggested yesterday, you very likely won't get that 11%-odd points per month average with this trial.
You are starting the trial with a 100pt starting bank after all, so why not offer your picks with a multiple point per bet as well ?
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Point taken Paul,
All bets will be 1 point unless stated. I will update results.
 
Monday 19/08/19

18:00 Sweden Allsvenskan Elfsborg v Ostersunds FT 4-1 (+1.92 pt)

19:45 France Ligue 2 Auxerre v Guingamp FT 2-2 (+1.47 pt)

As per Paul's comments I will now log all bets as per my staking (as mentioned in one of my earlier posts). Total revised bank is as follows:-

Today's PL +3.39 pts
Sunday's PL (adjusted) -3.96 pts

Running Bank 99.43 pts
 
Here are results from Jan 2013.

The first year I mainly paper traded and then went in with real money from Jan 2014.
I start with my betting bank, work out the stake (based on 100 pts) and use the same stake for the month. Then each month I stake at the new 100 pt bank. At the end of the year I withdraw funds (hopefully) and then start again. My 3 strategy filters, leagues etc etc have never changed.



75918
 
Excellent set of results Dave.:clap:
How did you feel, though, from January though to July when you started in 2014? :D Obviously held your nerve...…
If you ever make it to being a pro tipster - I'd follow you!!
You're on par (or even better) than the football Tipsters over at BettingGods..

Yesterdays results are better and I think you were largely unlucky with the weekends football results....
 
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886 points in 6 and a half years is great, and shows the long term potential of these things. And if you have a long term investment brain then it’s great reading. Sad thing is, most bettors don’t have this attribute and want it all now now now. Greed greed greed.
 
Kent Gill Kent Gill LOL....I seem to recall you writing something like the following...…..:D

"Some people invest £10000 and are happy with 5% interest a year, I wouldn’t be, I’m finding ways to make interest way above and beyond the standard form of acceptance."
 
retriever said:
Kent Gill Kent Gill LOL....I seem to recall you writing something like the following...…..:D

"Some people invest £10000 and are happy with 5% interest a year, I wouldn’t be, I’m finding ways to make interest way above and beyond the standard form of acceptance."
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Yes, that’s right, I pers wouldn’t be happy with 886 points in 6 years, I’d like that a month or a year, but 886 points, on one overs system, is still good, I’m not knocking that.

My issue with betting at odds of or around 2.00 is you need a 50% strike rate just to peddle along. When you bet at odds of say 11.00 you only need a 10% strike rate. Which is a lot easier to achieve IMO.

Quite often you can hit a run of 5-6-7 winners in a row, which gives you a huge buffer and would allow for 150-200 losses in a row to lose all the profits, but then if you lose 150-200 in a row you need to be asking yourself some serious questions.
 
retriever said:
Excellent set of results Dave.:clap:
How did you feel, though, from January though to July when you started in 2014? :D Obviously held your nerve...…
If you ever make it to being a pro tipster - I'd follow you!!
You're on par (or even better) than the football Tipsters over at BettingGods..

Yesterdays results are better and I think you were largely unlucky with the weekends football results....
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Yes, Sunday's results were close but not close enough. However, Saturday was a good day with 5/5 bringing in 4.59 pts
 
Kent Gill said:
Yes, that’s right, I pers wouldn’t be happy with 886 points in 6 years, I’d like that a month or a year, but 886 points, on one overs system, is still good, I’m not knocking that.

My issue with betting at odds of or around 2.00 is you need a 50% strike rate just to peddle along. When you bet at odds of say 11.00 you only need a 10% strike rate. Which is a lot easier to achieve IMO.

Quite often you can hit a run of 5-6-7 winners in a row, which gives you a huge buffer and would allow for 150-200 losses in a row to lose all the profits, but then if you lose 150-200 in a row you need to be asking yourself some serious questions.
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Personally, I prefer the slow burner approach. As said previously, this has averaged 11 pts per month and when you compound monthly it means that if you start the year with a £1000 betting bank, it should be worth about £3500 by the end of that year. I'm more than happy with that.
 
Great to see some of the background to this thread.

Out of interest... what is the success rate of the picks that qualify from more than 1 filter ? I'm thinking (if it is high enough) that you could use them in a 2 or 3-fold accumulator ?
 
paulb164 paulb164 Why would it necessarily be so that the picks that have been chosen by 2 or 3 of the systems have a higher win rate?

Would have thought it would be the same...….it's just that in Footy Trader's personal bets meant he backed them each time they were picked ie. twice or thrice.
 
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retriever said:
paulb164 paulb164 Why would it necessarily be so that the picks that have been chosen by 2 or 3 of the systems have a higher win rate?
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Horse racing I know, but I looked at this a few years back to see if backing horses that were picked up by two different systems would be more profitable (if anyone is interested it was a thread called when two systems collide).
The results were totally random as I recall, so I reckon retriever retriever could well be correct here.
 
I asked, as the fact that picks occurring in more than 1 filter warranted higher staking - to do that would suggest a bit more certainty with the results ? The 2 examples that Footy Trader Footy Trader mentioned that he would have put 2pts on were convincing winners, and also from decent-scoring leagues (compared to the other picks' leagues' averages).

dave58 said:
Horse racing I know, but I looked at this a few years back to see if backing horses that were picked up by two different systems would be more profitable (if anyone is interested it was a thread called when two systems collide).
The results were totally random as I recall, so I reckon @retriever could well be correct here.
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I'm not sure if horse-racing can compare to football with this - with horses it's one against several to win... with football there are only 2 competitors, and with the over/under 2.5 goal market, there can only be 2 outcomes to bet on. Considering that goal averages per game across all domestic leagues usually sit around roughly 2.1 goals per game, there's actually very little threshold (a single goal) to cross between that average and a winning bet by picking over 2.5 goals for your bets.
 
Friday 23/08/19

19:00 Romania Liga 1 U Craiova v Astra

19:00 France Ligue 2 AC Ajaccio v Paris FC

19:00 France Ligue 2 Chambly v Chateauroux

19:00 France Ligue 2 Niort v Caen

19:00 France Ligue 2 Clermont v Auxerre

21:15 Portugal Primeira Liga Rio Ave v Aves
 
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