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Outlanders speed ratings

Outlander

Gelding
Another break even type of day yesterday 3/16 top rated winners @ 8/1, 11/4 and 9/4

Todays Ratings
 

Attachments

  • 071219.xlsx
    21.6 KB · Views: 1

Outlander

Gelding
Ratings proved a decent guide overall yesterday 7/16 top rated winners @ 11/2, 11/2, 11/4, 5/2, 2/1, 15/8 and 8/13.
Todays ratings
 

Attachments

  • 101219.xlsx
    21.5 KB · Views: 0

Outlander

Gelding
Yesterday rating proved a reasonably good guide 6/21 top rated winners @ 9/1, 4/1, 3/1, 15/8, 7/4 and 4/5.
Todays Ratings
 

Attachments

  • 121219.xlsx
    30.1 KB · Views: 2

Outlander

Gelding
Cheltenham Festival speed figures all over 150
race_dateracetimetrackplacehorse_nametimestandardGARating
12/03/2020​
14:50:00​
Cheltenham1stMin (FR)
319.66​
308.84​
76​
169​
12/03/2020​
14:50:00​
Cheltenham2ndSaint Calvados (FR)
319.66​
308.84​
76​
169​
12/03/2020​
14:50:00​
Cheltenham3rdA Plus Tard (FR)
319.66​
308.84​
76​
168​
10/03/2020​
15:30:00​
Cheltenham2ndSharjah (FR)
247.03​
231.67​
119​
167​
10/03/2020​
14:10:00​
Cheltenham2ndFakir Doudairies (FR)
248.14​
232.86​
118​
166​
13/03/2020​
15:30:00​
Cheltenham1stAl Boum Photo (FR)
410.38​
399.18​
62​
165​
13/03/2020​
15:30:00​
Cheltenham2ndSantini
410.38​
399.18​
62​
164​
12/03/2020​
14:10:00​
Cheltenham1stSire Du Berlais (FR)
360.22​
346.68​
74​
164​
11/03/2020​
14:10:00​
Cheltenham1stChamp (IRE)
388.67​
369.90​
102​
164​
13/03/2020​
15:30:00​
Cheltenham3rdLostintranslation (IRE)
410.38​
399.18​
62​
164​
13/03/2020​
15:30:00​
Cheltenham4thMonalee (IRE)
410.38​
399.18​
62​
164​
10/03/2020​
15:30:00​
Cheltenham1stEpatante (FR)
247.03​
231.67​
119​
163​
11/03/2020​
14:10:00​
Cheltenham2ndMinella Indo (IRE)
388.67​
369.90​
102​
163​
10/03/2020​
15:30:00​
Cheltenham3rdDarver Star (IRE)
247.03​
231.67​
119​
163​
11/03/2020​
14:10:00​
Cheltenham3rdAllaho (FR)
388.67​
369.90​
102​
162​
11/03/2020​
13:30:00​
Cheltenham1stEnvoi Allen (FR)
318.73​
300.62​
106​
162​
12/03/2020​
14:10:00​
Cheltenham2ndThe Storyteller (IRE)
360.22​
346.68​
74​
161​
13/03/2020​
15:30:00​
CheltenhamFPresenting Percy
410.38​
399.18​
62​
161​
13/03/2020​
15:30:00​
Cheltenham5thDelta Work (FR)
410.38​
399.18​
62​
161​
10/03/2020​
13:30:00​
Cheltenham1stShishkin (IRE)
248.2​
231.67​
119​
160​
13/03/2020​
15:30:00​
Cheltenham6thReal Steel (FR)
410.38​
399.18​
62​
160​
10/03/2020​
13:30:00​
Cheltenham2ndAbacadabras (FR)
248.2​
231.67​
119​
160​
13/03/2020​
14:10:00​
Cheltenham2ndAramon (GER)
242.42​
237.03​
51​
160​
10/03/2020​
15:30:00​
Cheltenham4thCilaos Emery (FR)
247.03​
231.67​
119​
160​
12/03/2020​
13:30:00​
Cheltenham1stSamcro (IRE)
307.32​
296.06​
76​
159​
12/03/2020​
13:30:00​
Cheltenham2ndMelon
307.32​
296.06​
76​
159​
11/03/2020​
13:30:00​
Cheltenham2ndEasywork (FR)
318.73​
300.62​
106​
158​
12/03/2020​
13:30:00​
Cheltenham3rdFaugheen (IRE)
307.32​
296.06​
76​
158​
10/03/2020​
15:30:00​
Cheltenham5thPetit Mouchoir (FR)
247.03​
231.67​
119​
158​
10/03/2020​
15:30:00​
Cheltenham6thSilver Streak (IRE)
247.03​
231.67​
119​
157​
13/03/2020​
15:30:00​
Cheltenham7thKemboy (FR)
410.38​
399.18​
62​
157​
12/03/2020​
14:50:00​
Cheltenham4thFrodon (FR)
319.66​
308.84​
76​
157​
13/03/2020​
14:10:00​
Cheltenham3rdEmbittered (IRE)
242.42​
237.03​
51​
157​
12/03/2020​
14:50:00​
Cheltenham5thDuc Des Genievres (FR)
319.66​
308.84​
76​
157​
13/03/2020​
13:30:00​
CheltenhamURGoshen (FR)
246.28​
237.03​
51​
156​
11/03/2020​
13:30:00​
Cheltenham3rdThe Big Getaway (IRE)
318.73​
300.62​
106​
155​
12/03/2020​
13:30:00​
Cheltenham4thMister Fisher (IRE)
307.32​
296.06​
76​
155​
10/03/2020​
13:30:00​
CheltenhamFElixir DAinay (FR)
248.2​
231.67​
119​
155​
10/03/2020​
15:30:00​
Cheltenham7thSupasundae
247.03​
231.67​
119​
154​
12/03/2020​
13:30:00​
Cheltenham7thSaint Sonnet (FR)
307.32​
296.06​
76​
154​
10/03/2020​
14:10:00​
Cheltenham1stPut The Kettle On (IRE)
248.14​
232.86​
118​
154​
13/03/2020​
15:30:00​
Cheltenham8thClan Des Obeaux (FR)
410.38​
399.18​
62​
153​
10/03/2020​
13:30:00​
CheltenhamBDCaptain Guinness (IRE)
248.2​
231.67​
119​
153​
13/03/2020​
14:10:00​
Cheltenham1stSaint Roi (FR)
242.42​
237.03​
51​
153​
13/03/2020​
15:30:00​
Cheltenham9thBristol De Mai (FR)
410.38​
399.18​
62​
153​
13/03/2020​
15:30:00​
Cheltenham10thChriss Dream (IRE)
410.38​
399.18​
62​
153​
10/03/2020​
15:30:00​
Cheltenham8thBallyandy
247.03​
231.67​
119​
153​
13/03/2020​
15:30:00​
Cheltenham11thElegant Escape (IRE)
410.38​
399.18​
62​
153​
13/03/2020​
16:50:00​
Cheltenham2ndEclair De Beaufeu (FR)
247.9​
239.96​
62​
152​
13/03/2020​
16:50:00​
Cheltenham1stChosen Mate (IRE)
247.9​
239.96​
62​
152​
13/03/2020​
14:10:00​
Cheltenham4thBuildmeupbuttercup
242.42​
237.03​
51​
152​
12/03/2020​
13:30:00​
Cheltenham5thTornado Flyer (IRE)
307.32​
296.06​
76​
151​
12/03/2020​
15:30:00​
Cheltenham1stLisnagar Oscar (IRE)
363.2​
346.68​
74​
150​
11/03/2020​
13:30:00​
Cheltenham4thThe Big Breakaway (IRE)
318.73​
300.62​
106​
150​
12/03/2020​
13:30:00​
Cheltenham6thMidnight Shadow
307.32​
296.06​
76​
150​
 

Outlander

Gelding
winners speed ratings quite a few slowly run races in the soft ground
race_dateracetimetrackplacehorse_nametimestandardGARating
12/03/2020​
14:50:00​
Cheltenham1stMin (FR)
319.66​
308.84​
76​
169​
13/03/2020​
15:30:00​
Cheltenham1stAl Boum Photo (FR)
410.38​
399.18​
62​
165​
12/03/2020​
14:10:00​
Cheltenham1stSire Du Berlais (FR)
360.22​
346.68​
74​
164​
11/03/2020​
14:10:00​
Cheltenham1stChamp (IRE)
388.67​
369.90​
102​
164​
10/03/2020​
15:30:00​
Cheltenham1stEpatante (FR)
247.03​
231.67​
119​
163​
11/03/2020​
13:30:00​
Cheltenham1stEnvoi Allen (FR)
318.73​
300.62​
106​
162​
10/03/2020​
13:30:00​
Cheltenham1stShishkin (IRE)
248.2​
231.67​
119​
160​
12/03/2020​
13:30:00​
Cheltenham1stSamcro (IRE)
307.32​
296.06​
76​
159​
10/03/2020​
14:10:00​
Cheltenham1stPut The Kettle On (IRE)
248.14​
232.86​
118​
154​
13/03/2020​
14:10:00​
Cheltenham1stSaint Roi (FR)
242.42​
237.03​
51​
153​
13/03/2020​
16:50:00​
Cheltenham1stChosen Mate (IRE)
247.9​
239.96​
62​
152​
12/03/2020​
15:30:00​
Cheltenham1stLisnagar Oscar (IRE)
363.2​
346.68​
74​
150​
13/03/2020​
16:10:00​
Cheltenham1stIt Came To Pass (IRE)
415.51​
399.18​
62​
149​
13/03/2020​
14:50:00​
Cheltenham1stMonkfish (IRE)
357.96​
346.68​
51​
144​
10/03/2020​
17:30:00​
Cheltenham1stRavenhill (IRE)
505.16​
469.96​
118​
141​
12/03/2020​
16:50:00​
Cheltenham1stConcertista (FR)
249.02​
237.03​
74​
140​
11/03/2020​
15:30:00​
Cheltenham1stPolitologue (FR)
250.03​
232.86​
102​
139​
10/03/2020​
16:50:00​
Cheltenham1stImperial Aura (IRE)
324.32​
300.11​
118​
138​
12/03/2020​
16:10:00​
Cheltenham1stSimply The Betts (IRE)
326.08​
308.84​
76​
132​
11/03/2020​
16:50:00​
Cheltenham1stAramax (GER)
252.08​
231.67​
106​
132​
13/03/2020​
13:30:00​
Cheltenham1stBurning Victory (FR)
246.28​
237.03​
51​
131​
10/03/2020​
16:10:00​
Cheltenham1stHoneysuckle
308.73​
283.14​
119​
130​
10/03/2020​
14:50:00​
Cheltenham1stThe Conditional (IRE)
410.75​
380.96​
118​
126​
13/03/2020​
17:30:00​
Cheltenham1stIndefatigable (IRE)
303.73​
289.06​
51​
122​
11/03/2020​
14:50:00​
Cheltenham1stDame De Compagnie (FR)
325.4​
300.62​
106​
121​
11/03/2020​
17:30:00​
Cheltenham1stFerny Hollow (IRE)
246.06​
224.74​
106​
116​
12/03/2020​
17:30:00​
Cheltenham1stMilan Native (IRE)
429.2​
399.63​
76​
107​
 

Outlander

Gelding
Thoughts
Sire Du Berlais will be 9 next year but has to be the best 3m hurdler in training.
Epatante with the mares allowance is 170 and will be hard to beat again next year, unless Honeysuckle has a go.
Al Boum Photo is the only staying chaser who can run 170 + on a regular basis .
Goshen still needs to find a stone to be a champion hurdler
With hindsight Saint Roi was ridiculously leniently handicapped on his French form and laughed at the handicapper.Pity I didn’t realise this before the race.
Chacun Por Soi was very unlucky to miss out and is the best 2 miler in training, his slamming of Min was exceptional and Min can run 170 for fun.
Fakir D’oudaries is still one of my favourites with normal progression from his 5yo season should still prove a genuine grade 1 performer.
There is not much point better any horse in a Cheltenham handicap that is not a novice , the horses that have been around longer are just fodder for the up and comers.
French Bred AQPS horses are totally and completely dominating National Hunt racing and can simply run faster than other breeds
 

Bertie123

Yearling
Yesterday not great again 2/15 top rated winners @ 9/2 and 4/1
There were 5 2nd top rated winners @ 22/1, 20/1, 8/1, 9/2 and 4/1
so maybe the rating weren't too bad a guide overall.

Todays Ratings
Just picking up this thread while going through a few old threads. It seems from reading your posts you are trying to find the winner of every race? This is impossible and useless for making a profit. You are obviously finding good priced winners with your ratings and should be concentrating on which type of race or races the most success is coming from. Then specialise in those races. I only bet 2 and 3 year olds in non handicaps up to 8f. You need to specialise and I am sure you will,be successful.
 

Chesham

Sire
Just picking up this thread while going through a few old threads. It seems from reading your posts you are trying to find the winner of every race? This is impossible and useless for making a profit. You are obviously finding good priced winners with your ratings and should be concentrating on which type of race or races the most success is coming from. Then specialise in those races. I only bet 2 and 3 year olds in non handicaps up to 8f. You need to specialise and I am sure you will,be successful.
I think you will find that O Outlander has made giant strides since March 14th and has been making a Good profit on his latest Ratings and methods of zoning in on specific areas where the strike rate and profits increase.
 

Outlander

Gelding
Just picking up this thread while going through a few old threads. It seems from reading your posts you are trying to find the winner of every race? This is impossible and useless for making a profit. You are obviously finding good priced winners with your ratings and should be concentrating on which type of race or races the most success is coming from. Then specialise in those races. I only bet 2 and 3 year olds in non handicaps up to 8f. You need to specialise and I am sure you will,be successful.
I have changed the way I calculated my speed ratings about 2 months ago after a discussion on your thread, I don’t include weight now , I haven’t had chance to update my ratings in the last few days because I’m helping my son out with his new house, but up to that point my ratings have been making a small profit on all top rated horses speed and class to Betfair SP with 5% commission , recently started a detailed results sheet with filters to try and locate where my ratings are doing best, but need much more data before I can get anything worthwhile.
I’m still not the best pre-race punter I tend to bet the wrong ones too much but I’m getting better as I’ve showed a very small profit on my bets since I’ve been doing the speed ratings it has helped me a bit and I feel I’m not guessing anymore. I have a view on races now because I have them rated, I still find it hard missing winners so I bet too much, need to be more selective but the hard part for me is getting the wheat from the chaff instead of vice-versa.
I used to find it very easy to lose and now since I’ve started with the ratings I find it much harder to lose but unfortunately still hard to win, treading water with minimal profits.
Always looking to improve what I have , my latest project when I get chance is to dovetail my jumps and flat databases to have interchangeable ratings for both codes on the exact same scale so I can properly assess if jumps horses running on the flat or the other way around have a level of form to give them a chance, that’s the idea anyway. But at the moment I would say I am getting better at the ratings but still a long way to go. I always have new ideas and try to make small improvements , I feel if you do this one day you might have something decent.
I bet the horses in-running every day so this is just a hobby at the moment with any downtime in between races.
 

Bertie123

Yearling
I think you are a very dedicated speed fan. You should be very proud of the work you are covering. Unfortunately it seems the more we delve the more we want to do to become more and more accurate. It seems unfair that we don’t earn what we should, given the time we put in. I know I have had days when I have been supremely confident of the race I have rated only to see my selection run like a tortoise!
I wish you all the very best in this most frustrating endeavour.
 

tacker

Mare
Is it ever sensible to rely on any one aspect of a horses form whether it be speed ot time ?
I'm of the view that nothing should be ignored, ground conditions can be paramount with some horses but again can mislead you if you see it has won on soft doesn't confirm it is suited to such conditions without understanding what was achieved, same with the proximity to horses running in much higher classed races, caught me out many a time.
The way people on here use databases is impressive as is the speed lads but do you want to bet without all the other factors being taken into account ? The ability to watch a horses previous runs is priceless but still needs understanding and judgement or it becomes easy to be fooled, pace of the race is a great help in assessing a race but very complicated, if it was easy there wouldn't be any bookies.
 

mick

Sire
T tacker Re your above i suspect that the members of this forum who create and profit from there own SF take nothing at face value or for granted when using them. Other than to take note of time based going i do not use SF as part of my process but even allowing for this i still find much of interest in what they share. :) Re your " if it was easy there wouldn't be any bookies" i would counter via " If it was impossible then said bookies would take a bet from all punters " .
 

tacker

Mare
T tacker Re your above i suspect that the members of this forum who create and profit from there own SF take nothing at face value or for granted when using them. Other than to take note of time based going i do not use SF as part of my process but even allowing for this i still find much of interest in what they share. :) Re your " if it was easy there wouldn't be any bookies" i would counter via " If it was impossible then said bookies would take a bet from all punters " .
Of course they don't mick mick , my comment was simply following on from what B Bertie123 was saying, nobody finding fault just sharing opinions.
My use of the word "impressive" was meant to complimentary and not to be crtical of how they work, subject is wider than any one forum anyway.
 

Chesham

Sire
Is it ever sensible to rely on any one aspect of a horses form whether it be speed ot time ?
I'm of the view that nothing should be ignored, ground conditions can be paramount with some horses but again can mislead you if you see it has won on soft doesn't confirm it is suited to such conditions without understanding what was achieved, same with the proximity to horses running in much higher classed races, caught me out many a time.
The way people on here use databases is impressive as is the speed lads but do you want to bet without all the other factors being taken into account ? The ability to watch a horses previous runs is priceless but still needs understanding and judgement or it becomes easy to be fooled, pace of the race is a great help in assessing a race but very complicated, if it was easy there wouldn't be any bookies.
O Outlander , TheBluesBrother TheBluesBrother and davejb davejb have earned my respect in the way they have collaborated so well together and they have recognised what you have mentioned with regards ground conditions being paramount and also of Equal importance, factoring Rail Movements. There working together has seen very accurate speed ratings that can be relied upon to measure what a horse has achieved and sometimes there figures will give a clue that a much hyped horse many the pundits have gone overboard about, has yet to live up to that hype, as it’s speed figures do not match up with the “Next Best Thing since sliced bread“ opinion of the pundits

O Outlander has recently factored in a column to reflect Class and a combined column for Speed +Class . TheBluesBrother TheBluesBrother has also pointed the way to show when a horse has achieved a Rating that is of a class Ceiling higher than the one is entered for. (This is a good source of winners when other things are factored in. davejb davejb has his own way of class factor with his ratings.


Yes I agree with you T tacker Speed figures need to be used with other observation and all three of the Speed Rating Compilers take that into account when using those figures for their bets .

I also take other factors into account when using those figures and watching the races where those figures were earned and sometimes I thing the Figures May be marked up as even better when those factors are added to the analysis

example

BFD481DC-1F76-4336-AF79-3B884EE6C60C.jpeg
 

tacker

Mare
Chesham Chesham
Yeah! the three lads you mention certainly know their stuff, indeed I have used the thread "compiling speed figures" to entice people including what might be desribed as racing celebritieson to the forum to have a read of some interactions involving those three.
 
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