Optimum Trip

[martin_85]

Historically I have always avoided maiden and novice races, as I never feel there is enough information for my style of analysis (as limited as that is). Having loosely followed the start of the flat season, noticing some high priced winners in maiden races, it made me think about whether these are coming from horses that have run there first race or two off a distance completely unsuited, and then been placed in a race that suits them.

I unfortunately have very limited spare time at the moment, so there won't be a huge amount of analysis put into this in terms of back testing etc. I thought I would just look for horses that are running a trip at least 2f different to their first race(s), which is a decent price, and assess whether I think the new trip will suit them.

Today we have the 14:13 at Pontefract, with Night Wolf currently available at 20/1.

First two races over 7f and a quick stride analysis indicates he could be better suited to a trip 8-10f. It's possible that 10f is a little too far for him, and that 8-9f is optimum, but the price makes him interesting. He also has the highest TFR, which could be something to look out for during this testing process.

 

[Sullybomb]

martin_85
Some pedigree info I like to use for the 2 & 3yo races.

 

[martin_85]

Thanks for sharing that Sullybomb

Suggests 10f is probably too far for him on that basis. The stride analysis I ran suggested 9f was optimum, but as it's purely a test I thought I would post him anyway. Probably best he doesn't win at 20/1 as I expect it would only be downhill after that!

 

[DuckandDive]

Historically I have always avoided maiden and novice races, as I never feel there is enough information for my style of analysis (as limited as that is). Having loosely followed the start of the flat season, noticing some high priced winners in maiden races, it made me think about whether these are coming from horses that have run there first race or two off a distance completely unsuited, and then been placed in a race that suits them.

I unfortunately have very limited spare time at the moment, so there won't be a huge amount of analysis put into this in terms of back testing etc. I thought I would just look for horses that are running a trip at least 2f different to their first race(s), which is a decent price, and assess whether I think the new trip will suit them.

Today we have the 14:13 at Pontefract, with Night Wolf currently available at 20/1.

First two races over 7f and a quick stride analysis indicates he could be better suited to a trip 8-10f. It's possible that 10f is a little too far for him, and that 8-9f is optimum, but the price makes him interesting. He also has the highest TFR, which could be something to look out for during this testing process.

Unless you have some sort of database or personal record of pedigree/breeding dosage ratings..etc (i haven't). the only real guide, until they have some hard evidence on the track, is to use something like the freely available racing post information.

Sire: Kodi Bear 7f Dam Sire: Pivotal 8f

Best guess ( which most trainers have to do too) is 7f to 8f, maybe 9f, max on breeding.

On form, started off @ 7f (not any shorter) so fair enough. Comments indicate outpaced, stayedon/kept on. This might give the impression it needs further that 7f. Today @10f, suggests a fact finding mission, which might work out well, or not as the case may be. Ground suitable?

Might just be a case of getting a lower handicap mark established by racing it over the wrong distance.

A change of stables so early on suggests they received an offer they couldn't refuse, or a falling out.

 

[martin_85]

Certainly plenty of question marks DuckandDive not least that he hasn't run since October.

I'm wary of refining a system too much, as I always find it easier to come up 'negatives', but I'm sure this can be tweaked as I go. The odd high priced winner might be sufficient to beat the market, we'll see.