• Hi Guest Just in case you were not aware I wanted to highlight that you can now get a free 7 day trial of Horseracebase here.
    We have a lot of members who are existing users of Horseracebase so help is always available if needed, as well as dedicated section of the fourm here.
    Best Wishes
    AR

Oppose the ratings !

cosmicsports

cosmicsports

Colt
Everybody here is trying to work out accurate football ratings.
We have had lengthy discussions.

But the truth is that bookies also use the ratings, some ratings - probably the elo ratings.
There is a formula that converts elo rating differences to probabilities and thereafter to odds.
If the bookies are not using exactly the same formula as mine, they use some formula pretty similar.
Plus of course corrections they apply from case to case because of injuries, rainfall etc etc.

So at best we are level pegging.
But what if the ratings fail ?
You might say ok, they do sometimes - Liverpool lost to Aston Villa by 7 goals to 2 last year.
The bookies could n't possibly predict that as neither could we, so what ?
But are there occasions where a) the ratings are no good, b) we can somehow make a better guess.

One such situation is in my opinion when we have to deal with matches between teams of different countries. There they use ratings but they 're not so good.

There are many counterexamples but my all time counterexample is from way back in the nineties.
Rangers v. AEK Athens.
AEK Athens beat Rangers in Athens by 2-0.
AEK was plainly superior. Before any Scottish supporters among you raise objections, AEK Athens is definitely not better than Rangers throughout the years, but in 1995 they were.
So for the return leg at Ibrox I see a price 15/2 for AEK to win !
Could n't make use of it because we had no betting companies those years, I just saw it in the newspapers rather. But that's neither here nor there.
The bookie ratings based on all time performances dictated this and it was obviously wrong.
Finally AEK won by 1-0 at Ibrox and should have been 3-0.

So that's one category where the bookies usually fail but we can reasonably do better.
When teams of different countries play against each other.

Now I don't think this applies to the big clubs of Europe.
For example now that we are in the stage of 8 of the champions league I don't think they don't know how to calibrate the likes of Napoli, Benfica, Bayern, AC Milan ...
But I mean early on or in the Conference league.

Could you systematize these thoughts of mine somehow so we can locate positive value ?
Are there any other similar frequently occuring situations ?
 
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An interesting post cosmicsports cosmicsports and although i have no knowledge of Football betting i feel simular thinking can be applied to horse racing ratings. There are some good commercially aval ones but they will be available to many including the Bookmakers, and this can negate there worth Re the important value aspect.

Far better to create and bet off your own. I found this to be a difficult ask which took years of effort and disappointment before reaching the point whereby i finally felt comfortable with using what i had, and good about the fact that they sometimes disagree with the majority view. The other positive being you know the ingredients and the weightings involved and this knowledge provides additional confidence when using them.
 
mick said:
An interesting post cosmicsports cosmicsports and although i have no knowledge of Football betting i feel simular thinking can be applied to horse racing ratings. There are some good commercially aval ones but they will be available to many including the Bookmakers, and this can negate there worth Re the important value aspect.

Far better to create and bet off your own. I found this to be a difficult ask which took years of effort and disappointment before reaching the point whereby i finally felt comfortable with using what i had, and good about the fact that they sometimes disagree with the majority view. The other positive being you know the ingredients and the weightings involved and this knowledge provides additional confidence when using them.
Click to expand...
I 'm talking about football.
In the field of horse racing I can't really say that such thoughts apply.
Sometimes I find outsiders but I 'm not using unorthodox methods.
But if the racing form books could do me a favour and publish just data and no predictions life would be easier for me !
 
TheBluesBrother said:
No, it is not, I used to be an original member back in the day, you cannot fault Alexander's maths he is very clever.

Mike.
Click to expand...
Well ... ok.
We are two friends here really but I 'm the one who knows English.
So I asked my friend to look at this and if he does n't I 'll have to find time to study it myself.
But anyway my original plan was to look for things other than accurate ratings.
 
I 'm upset since yesterday.
My friend who likes to study the software tools and communicate the results to me is very ill I was told.
Prayers please.

But I was a member of newhavensoft forum only I can't seem to login now.
I understand this program computes probabilities and then converts to odds.
If the odds presented are above those offered then it's good - we bet. If they are below then it's not good.

Yet the figure of merit ?
They should give us a figure of merit (so we understand what they 're doing).
If the average bookie prediction parameter is say 38% theirs is ?
If it is 38.5% then the software's advice is valid, if it is 37% it's not.
The more the merrier of course but 38.5% would be enough if the bookies are at 38%.
To do this they 'd have to copy-paste the odds from some bookie monitoring site (e.g. oddsportal.com) and do some computing.

Without a figure of merit what to do ?
The scientists of thermonuclear fusion have the Lawson criterion as a figure of merit.
If the Lawson criterion is satisfied then we take more energy out than we put in and it works.
If it is not sastisfied then it's megabuck per megawatt - it does n't work - government grant withdrawn.
We ?
 
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