numbercrunching
Yearling
I've enjoyed having a play around with some data and modelling approaches to tennis and horse racing betting, and I've settled upon a model that I want to try out now for football as well.
Rationale: I've created a model based on various data sources to assess the chances of win, lose and draw for matches in markets with decent liquidity on the Betfair Exchange. I then compare that to the market. Where there is a large edge identified by the model vs the market, I'll list it here as a 1 point win bet.
Liquidity on matches is generally decent enough that if this seems successful over time, it could be a workable option for me/others.
I've set the edge as 5 percentage points plus my own individual judgement, but we'll see how that works in time.
Not sure how busy this will be: I assume a quiet few days then a busy Saturday, but European football may feature too.
Wish me luck.
Rationale: I've created a model based on various data sources to assess the chances of win, lose and draw for matches in markets with decent liquidity on the Betfair Exchange. I then compare that to the market. Where there is a large edge identified by the model vs the market, I'll list it here as a 1 point win bet.
Liquidity on matches is generally decent enough that if this seems successful over time, it could be a workable option for me/others.
I've set the edge as 5 percentage points plus my own individual judgement, but we'll see how that works in time.
Not sure how busy this will be: I assume a quiet few days then a busy Saturday, but European football may feature too.
Wish me luck.
