• Hi Guest Just in case you were not aware I wanted to highlight that you can now get a free 7 day trial of Horseracebase here.
    We have a lot of members who are existing users of Horseracebase so help is always available if needed, as well as dedicated section of the fourm here.
    Best Wishes
    AR

My Selecections (pinstickers guide)

Race,Our 1st,Our 2nd,Our 3rd,Winner,Assessment
14:35 Doncaster,Amidst The Chaos,Tilani,Al Muqdad,Mwafaq (Value Watch),"⭐ Very encouraging. We identified the winner as the value horse, and our 1st pick finished 2nd."
15:10 Doncaster,Emerald Harmony,Paddys Day,Moulin Booj,Dyonisos,"Miss. We deliberately opposed the favourite, but the market was right."
15:45 Doncaster,Redbud Sixteen,Footwork,Bintknight,Be Patient,"Partial success. Bintknight finished 2nd, but the winner wasn't in our top three."
16:20 Doncaster,Come On Over,Cosmic Clarets,Kings Merchant,Come On Over,"✅ Excellent. Top pick won. Third pick finished 2nd."
16:42 Sandown,Marnier,Minhad,So Alex,Marnier,"✅ Excellent. Top pick won."
16:55 Doncaster,Saffron Dandy,Chicory,Eternal Sunshine,Alondra,"Partial. Third pick finished 2nd, but we missed the winner."
17:15 Sandown,Ascending Star,Thursday Girl,Silca Bay,Cristo,"Partial. Second pick finished 2nd and first pick finished 3rd."
17:30 Doncaster,Gunalt Wavelength,Seeing Stars,Light The Night Up,Accademia,"Partial. Second pick finished 3rd, but winner not selected."

18:10 Beverley,Singarda,Amber Hamur,Regal Knight,Hatamoto,"⭐ Strong. Winner was 2nd pick. Clear near-hit."
19:18 Chepstow,Ernie Mccrew,Anorah Unleashed,Buckland Belle,Maid In Devon,"❌ Miss. Winner not in top 3."
19:53 Chepstow,Sanaam,Star Material,Moscow Power,Maid In Devon,"❌ Miss. Winner outside selections (not in top 3)."
20:10 Beverley,Singarda,Amber Hamur,Regal Knight,Hatamoto,"⭐ Good hit. Winner was top pick."
20:40 Beverley,Jesmond Dawn,Travis,Qazaq,The Sweet Escape,"⭐ Strong. Winner was NOT in top 3 (model miss)."
 
Race,Our 1st,Our 2nd,Our 3rd,Winner,Assessment
14:35 Doncaster,Amidst The Chaos,Tilani,Al Muqdad,Mwafaq (Value Watch),"⭐ Very encouraging. We identified the winner as the value horse, and our 1st pick finished 2nd."
15:10 Doncaster,Emerald Harmony,Paddys Day,Moulin Booj,Dyonisos,"Miss. We deliberately opposed the favourite, but the market was right."
15:45 Doncaster,Redbud Sixteen,Footwork,Bintknight,Be Patient,"Partial success. Bintknight finished 2nd, but the winner wasn't in our top three."
16:20 Doncaster,Come On Over,Cosmic Clarets,Kings Merchant,Come On Over,"✅ Excellent. Top pick won. Third pick finished 2nd."
16:42 Sandown,Marnier,Minhad,So Alex,Marnier,"✅ Excellent. Top pick won."
16:55 Doncaster,Saffron Dandy,Chicory,Eternal Sunshine,Alondra,"Partial. Third pick finished 2nd, but we missed the winner."
17:15 Sandown,Ascending Star,Thursday Girl,Silca Bay,Cristo,"Partial. Second pick finished 2nd and first pick finished 3rd."
17:30 Doncaster,Gunalt Wavelength,Seeing Stars,Light The Night Up,Accademia,"Partial. Second pick finished 3rd, but winner not selected."

18:10 Beverley,Singarda,Amber Hamur,Regal Knight,Hatamoto,"⭐ Strong. Winner was 2nd pick. Clear near-hit."
19:18 Chepstow,Ernie Mccrew,Anorah Unleashed,Buckland Belle,Maid In Devon,"❌ Miss. Winner not in top 3."
19:53 Chepstow,Sanaam,Star Material,Moscow Power,Maid In Devon,"❌ Miss. Winner outside selections (not in top 3)."
20:10 Beverley,Singarda,Amber Hamur,Regal Knight,Hatamoto,"⭐ Good hit. Winner was top pick."
20:40 Beverley,Jesmond Dawn,Travis,Qazaq,The Sweet Escape,"⭐ Strong. Winner was NOT in top 3 (model miss)."
Changed format slightly, for more clarity ;
DateRaceTrackOur 1stOur 2ndOur 3rdValue WatchWinnerResult CodeAssessment
03/07/2026​
14:35​
DoncasterAmidst The ChaosTilaniAl MuqdadMwafaqMwafaqVALUE💎 Value Watch won
03/07/2026​
15:10​
DoncasterEmerald HarmonyPaddys DayMoulin BoojDyonisosMISS❌ Winner not in selections
03/07/2026​
15:45​
DoncasterRedbud SixteenFootworkBintknightBe PatientPLACED🟨 Selection placed but winner missed
03/07/2026​
16:20​
DoncasterCome On OverCosmic ClaretsKings MerchantCome On OverTOP1🥇 Top Pick won
03/07/2026​
16:42​
SandownMarnierMinhadSo AlexMarnierTOP1🥇 Top Pick won
03/07/2026​
16:55​
DoncasterSaffron DandyChicoryEternal SunshineAlondraPLACED🟨 Selection placed but winner missed
03/07/2026​
17:15​
SandownAscending StarThursday GirlSilca BayCristoPLACED🟨 Selections placed but winner missed
03/07/2026​
17:30​
DoncasterGunalt WavelengthSeeing StarsLight The Night UpAccademiaPLACED🟨 Selection placed but winner missed
03/07/2026​
19:02​
BeverleyIm NextEmperor SpiritElegant ErinIm NextTOP1🥇 Top Pick won
03/07/2026​
19:18​
ChepstowBuckland BelleLady Of CloverAlices InfluenceViolet GoldsmithPLACED🟨 Selections placed but winner missed
03/07/2026​
19:53​
ChepstowMoscow PowerBlue OrbitMaid In DevonMaid In DevonTOP3🥈 Third Pick won
03/07/2026​
20:10​
BeverleyHatamotoAmber HamurRegal KnightHatamotoTOP1🥇 Top Pick won
03/07/2026​
20:40​
BeverleyJesmond DawnTravisQazaqThe Sweet EscapeMISS❌ Winner not in selections
 
Last edited:

Official Model Selections​


RankHorseConfidence
🥇 1stMighty Magnus (IRE)★★★★☆
🥈 2ndQuantum Power (IRE)★★★★☆
🥉 3rdDesert Treasure★★★☆☆
 
RankHorseConfidence
🥇 1stAsfoora (AUS)⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
🥈 2ndPartisan Hero (IRE)⭐⭐⭐⭐
🥉 3rdRumstar⭐⭐⭐⭐

WORDS OF TRUTH NR​

13:50 CORAL CHARGE (Sprint) (Group 3) (1)
1st
Rob Hornbysilk
3. RUMSTAR 10/3
2nd
Ray Dawsonsilk
7. LUNA A INBHIR NIS 18/1
3rd
C. T. Keanesilk
2. PARTISAN HERO (IRE) 12/1
9 ran. NRs: WORDS OF TRUTH.
 
Last edited:
2.05 Newmarket

Rank​
Horse
Rating​
Form​
Pace​
Stats​
Total​
🥇
Arc Ole Ole
10​
9​
9​
9​
37
🥈
Hard To Believe (IRE)
9​
9​
10​
9​
37
🥉
Mythical Bay (IRE)
9​
9​
8​
8​
34
4​
Lopeo (IRE)
8​
8​
7​
9​
32
5​
Heroics
8​
8​
7​
8​
31
6​
Magnetude
8​
7​
6​
8​
29
7​
Amora Queen (GER)
5​
6​
6​
6​
23
14:05 BETWAY BET £10 GET £40 HANDICAP (2)
1st
Callum Hutchinsonsilk
4. MYTHICAL BAY (IRE) 4/1
2nd
Robert Havlinsilk
1. MAGNETUDE 14/1
All 7 ran.
 
Last edited:

2.25 (put on after race had started)​


RankHorseRatingFormPaceStatsTotal
🥇Indalo (IRE)1099937
🥈Classic9991037
🥉Tribal Chief (FR)999936
4Ebts Guard988934
5City Of Poets (IRE)888933
6Liberty Lane (IRE)877931
7Hard Endeavor (FR)788730
8Excellent Believe778830
9Sea Force (IRE)778729
10Popmaster (IRE)767727
11Mirsky767626
12Bourbon Blues676625
13Ozat (FR)667524
14Balmacara567523
 

3:15 Newmarket – Betway Old Newton Cup Handicap​


RankHorseRatingFormPaceStatsTotal
🥇Klassleader101081038
🥈Paddy The Squire10810836
🥉Night Breeze (IRE)989935
4Fierce Fortitude899834
5Elsass (IRE)898934
6Claymore (FR)886830
7Plage De Havre778830
8Ammes (IRE)878730
9Sportingsilvermine (IRE)776727
10Burdett Road765826
11Enemy657624
12Al Aali (FR)558624
 
4:25 Newmarket – Betway Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap​
Master Scoring​
Rank​
Horse​
Rating​
Form​
Pace​
Stats​
Total​
🥇
Silver Ghost (IRE)​
9​
8​
10​
9​
36​
🥈
Crown Board (IRE)​
10​
9​
8​
9​
36​
🥉
Royal Zabeel (IRE)​
9​
8​
7​
10​
34​
4​
Akkadian Thunder​
9​
8​
10​
8​
35​
5​
Goldmoyne (IRE)​
9​
8​
7​
7​
31​
6​
Golden Redemption (USA)​
7​
8​
9​
8​
32​
7​
Divine Libra (IRE)​
7​
7​
8​
8​
30​
8​
Houquetot (IRE)​
8​
5​
6​
7​
26​
9​
No Retreat (IRE)​
6​
7​
8​
7​
28​
10​
One Smack Mac (IRE)​
5​
5​
6​
6​
22​
16:25 BETWAY BEST ODDS GUARANTEED HANDICAP (2)
 
Last edited:
Just to be clear. If I rate 150 races and then;

Why I like this​


At this stage of development, it is the cleanest approach.


We're about to validate the model over approximately 150 races. If every category is weighted equally, we can identify which component contributes the most to finding winners.


For example, after 150 races we might discover:


  • Rating is correct 72% of the time.
  • Form is correct 63% of the time.
  • Pace is correct 81% of the time.
  • Stats is correct 58% of the time.

Only then would there be evidence for changing the weightings.
 
7.30 Nottingham



Rank​
Horse​
Rating​
Form​
Pace​
Stats​
Total​
🥇
Jack Langley​
10​
10​
9​
10​
39​
🥈
Saratoga Gold​
8​
8​
7​
8​
31​
🥉
Regally Blonde​
7​
6​
8​
9​
30​
4​
Ikigai Star (IRE)​
7​
5​
8​
7​
27​
5​
Chambers (IRE)​
7​
4​
6​
6​
23​
6​
Free World​
5​
3​
6​
6​
20​
 
2.02 Southwell
Constant Star is going in my notebook. Ran a good race to finish 5th after being slowly away. This one has time on its side.
Rank​
Horse​
Rating​
Form​
Pace​
Stats​
Total​
Forecast Odds​
🥇
Kalokalo (IRE)​
9​
10​
10​
9​
38​
5.5​
1st​
Kalokalo (IRE): 4.0 (3/1)
🥈
Constant Star (IRE)​
6​
6​
8​
10​
30​
23​
5th​
Constant Star: 34.0 (33/1)
🥉
Lillie Margot​
10​
8​
5​
7​
30​
7.5​
3rd​
Lillie Margot: 10.0 (9/1)
4​
Alpine Culture​
8​
8​
8​
5​
29​
5.5​
*​
Alpine Culture: 6.0 (5/1)
5​
Paranjape​
8​
7​
6​
8​
29​
11​
*​
Paranjape: 12.0 (11/1)
6​
Areti​
9​
8​
4​
7​
28​
10​
4th​
Areti: 11.0 (10/1)
7​
Just A Gambler (IRE)​
5​
6​
4​
8​
23​
20​
*​
Just A Gamble: 8.0 (7/1)
8​
Picture Palace (IRE)​
7​
7​
7​
2​
23​
11​
*​
Picture Palace: 15.0 (14/1)
9​
Lightning Glory (IRE)​
9​
7​
5​
2​
23​
8.5​
2nd​
Lightning Glory: 8.0 (7/1)
10​
Pepsea (IRE)​
6​
6​
5​
4​
21​
17​
*​
Pepsea (IRE): 26.0 (25/1)
11​
Sovereign Bay (FR)​
6​
5​
4​
3​
18​
11​
*​
Sovereign Bay: 23.0 (22/1)
12​
Cliff Danger​
5​
5​
5​
3​
18​
13​
*​
Cliff Danger: 17.0 (16/1)
13​
Decem Starr (IRE)​
5​
4​
5​
2​
16​
15​
*​
Decem Starr: 15.0 (14/1)
14​
Lightening Lad​
3​
3​
3​
1​
10​
101​
*​
Lightening Lad: 67.0 (66/1)
 
Some of todays rating. The model did a bit better today but I hav to expand it because it too simple. After today it will look different;
2.02 Southwell​
Sky Sports Racing Virgin 512 Handicap​
Rank​
Horse​
Rating​
Form​
Pace​
Stats​
Total​
Forecast Odds​
🥇
Kalokalo (IRE)​
9​
10​
10​
9​
38​
5.5​
1st​
Kalokalo 4
🥈
Constant Star (IRE)​
6​
6​
8​
10​
30​
23​
5th​
Constant Star: 34.0
🥉
Lillie Margot​
10​
8​
5​
7​
30​
7.5​
3rd​
Lillie Margot: 10.0
4​
Alpine Culture​
8​
8​
8​
5​
29​
5.5​
*​
Alpine Culture: 6.0
5​
Paranjape​
8​
7​
6​
8​
29​
11​
*​
Paranjape: 12.0
6​
Areti​
9​
8​
4​
7​
28​
10​
4th​
Areti: 11.0
7​
Just A Gambler (IRE)​
5​
6​
4​
8​
23​
20​
*​
Just A Gamble: 8.0
8​
Picture Palace (IRE)​
7​
7​
7​
2​
23​
11​
*​
Picture Palace: 15.0
9​
Lightning Glory (IRE)​
9​
7​
5​
2​
23​
8.5​
2nd​
Lightning Glory: 8.0
10​
Pepsea (IRE)​
6​
6​
5​
4​
21​
17​
*​
Pepsea 26
11​
Sovereign Bay (FR)​
6​
5​
4​
3​
18​
11​
*​
Sovereign Bay: 23.0
12​
Cliff Danger​
5​
5​
5​
3​
18​
13​
*​
Cliff Danger: 17.0
13​
Decem Starr (IRE)​
5​
4​
5​
2​
16​
15​
*​
Decem Starr: 15.0
14​
Lightening Lad​
3​
3​
3​
1​
10​
101​
*​
Lightening Lad: 67.0
2.32 southwell​
Rank​
Horse​
Rating​
Form​
Pace​
Stats​
Total​
Forecast Odds​
🥇
Vitalline​
9​
9​
9​
10​
37​
10​
9th​
Vitalline: 9.0​
🥈
Jimmy Knocker (IRE)​
9​
8​
9​
10​
36​
15​
5th​
Jimmy Knocker 34​
🥉
Onemorenomore​
8​
8​
8​
7​
31​
5​
3rd​
Onemorenomore: 4.33​
4​
Anthropologist​
8​
7​
6​
5​
26​
7.5​
4th​
Anthropologist: 6.50​
5​
Tennessee Gold (FR)​
6​
5​
7​
8​
26​
4​
*​
Tennessee Gold 4.5​
6​
Suhub​
7​
6​
7​
5​
25​
10​
*​
Suhub: 15.0​
7​
Surprised​
6​
5​
6​
8​
25​
19​
*​
Surprised: 21.0​
8​
Symphony Of Joy (IRE)​
5​
5​
6​
5​
21​
17​
*​
Symphony Of Joy 15​
9​
Gunfighter (IRE)​
5​
4​
4​
7​
20​
8​
won​
Gunfighter 7​
10​
Wadacre Maestro​
4​
4​
5​
5​
18​
7​
2nd​
Wadacre Maestro: 7.00​
3.05 Southwell – attheraces.com/marketmovers Handicap (Div 2)​
Rank​
Horse​
Rating​
Form​
Pace​
Stats​
Total​
Forecast Odds​
🥇
Reputation (IRE)​
9​
9​
10​
10​
38​
10​
*​
Reputation 15​
🥈
Pickersgill (IRE)​
8​
8​
7​
10​
33​
6​
*​
Pickersgill 5.5​
🥉
Noble Guest​
9​
9​
6​
8​
32​
3.5​
*​
Noble Guest: 4.33​
4​
Tough Enough​
8​
7​
10​
6​
31​
8.5​
3rd​
Tough Enough: 13.0​
5​
Portman Blue​
8​
7​
8​
5​
28​
8​
2nd​
Portman Blue: 12.0​
6​
Blazing Son​
7​
6​
5​
9​
27​
12​
*​
Blazing Son: 7.0​
7​
King Of Fury (IRE)​
7​
6​
5​
7​
25​
5.5​
won​
King Of Fury 4​
8​
Shamacid (IRE)​
6​
5​
4​
5​
20​
11​
*​
Shamacid 8​
9​
Crystal Dagger​
4​
4​
3​
5​
16​
29​
*​
Crystal Dagger: 34.0​
4.15 Southwell – Download The At The Races App Handicap​
Rank​
Horse​
Rating​
Form​
Pace​
Stats​
Total​
Forecast Odds​
🥇
Naanas Sparkle​
10​
9​
6​
10​
35​
9​
Won​
Naanas Sparkle: 7.00​
🥈
Buzz Box​
8​
8​
10​
9​
35​
12​
*​
Buzz Box: 17.00​
🥉
Alligator Alley​
8​
8​
9​
9​
34​
11​
*​
Alligator Alley: 41.00​
4​
Kylian (IRE)​
9​
7​
7​
7​
30​
3.25​
*​
Kylian (IRE): 4.00​
5​
Rappers Delight​
8​
8​
8​
5​
29​
6​
2nd​
Rappers Delight: 4.33​
6​
Cloud King​
7​
6​
8​
6​
27​
15​
*​
Cloud King: 29.00​
7​
Canons House​
7​
5​
4​
8​
24​
5.5​
3rd​
Canons House: 5.00​
8​
Tropical Storm​
6​
5​
7​
5​
23​
9​
*​
Tropical Storm: 8.50​
9​
Blinky (IRE)​
6​
5​
5​
5​
21​
15​
*​
Blinky (IRE): 10.00​
Notes​
4.50 Southwell – Free Race Replays On attheraces.com Handicap​
Rank​
Horse​
Rating​
Form​
Pace​
Stats​
Total​
Forecast Odds​
🥇
John Galt (FR)​
9​
9​
9​
9​
36​
6.5​
*​
3.5​
🥈
Dino Bellagio​
9​
9​
6​
8​
32​
7.5​
*​
7.5​
🥉
Premier (FR)​
8​
8​
10​
5​
31​
3​
3rd​
7.5​
4​
Senor Cortez (IRE)​
8​
8​
9​
5​
30​
7.5​
Won​
2.75​
5​
Baltic​
5​
5​
6​
10​
26​
11​
*​
15​
6​
Spooky Wooky (IRE)​
6​
6​
7​
5​
24​
7​
*​
21​
7​
Shushi​
6​
5​
4​
5​
20​
6.5​
2nd​
9.5​
5.25 Southwell – Free Bets On attheraces.com Handicap (GBBPlus Race)​
Rank​
Horse​
Rating​
Form​
Pace​
Stats​
Total​
Forecast Odds​
🥇
Club Class​
10​
10​
10​
5​
35​
3.25​
2nd​
3.25​
🥈
Forever Penywern​
9​
9​
8​
8​
34​
6​
Won​
9​
🥉
Crystal Mariner (IRE)​
8​
8​
7​
10​
33​
10​
*​
5​
4​
Jupiter Ammon (IRE)​
8​
8​
7​
5​
28​
4.33​
*​
4.33​
5​
Northwest Passage​
8​
8​
6​
5​
27​
9.5​
*​
11​
6​
Aulis​
6​
8​
9​
7​
30​
17​
*​
21​
7​
Victors Spirit (SAF)​
6​
6​
5​
9​
26​
12​
3rd​
10​
8​
Vaguer (IRE)​
4​
2​
3​
5​
14​
9​
*​
8.5​
 
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