Well done Paul.
My Selecections (pinstickers guide)
- Thread starter Paul Brown
- Start date
Paul Brown
Colt
Worked out quite well so will try another race
18:30 Roscommon
La La Lucrative (IRE)
5/1
Toy Soldier (IRE)
3/1 f
Givehertilxmas (IRE)
11/1
Paul Brown
Colt
Going/Tracks
Good to Firm (Good in placesStalls:Straight Course: Centre Round Course: Inside 1M 4F Start: Stands' side
Weather
Partly Cloudy. 0.3mm rain overnight. Cloudy but dry outlook for racing.Watering:Watering as necessary to hold.
Going History
On Wed, 01 Jul 7:27am the ground condition was Good to Firm (Good in Places).On Tue, 30 Jun 1:06pm the ground condition was Good to Firm (Good in Places). (GSt 7.9 on Sun 10:30am)
On Mon, 29 Jun 6:58am the ground condition was Good to Firm (Good in Places). (GSt 7.9 on Sun 10:30am)
On Sun, 28 Jun 10:31am the ground condition was Good to Firm (Good in Places). (GSt 7.9 on Sun 10:30am)
Paul Brown
Colt
The Draw
AI Overview
At Thirsk Racecourse, the most distinct draw bias occurs over the 5-furlong distance, where high draws hold a significant advantage, especially on firmer ground. While the draw is generally less influential over 6 furlongs, understanding the interaction between pace and the track configuration is crucial. [1, 2, 3]
Key Draw Characteristics at Thirsk
AI Overview
At Thirsk Racecourse, the most distinct draw bias occurs over the 5-furlong distance, where high draws hold a significant advantage, especially on firmer ground. While the draw is generally less influential over 6 furlongs, understanding the interaction between pace and the track configuration is crucial. [1, 2, 3]
Key Draw Characteristics at Thirsk
- 5 Furlongs: This course and distance is notoriously one of the most draw-biased in the country. Higher-drawn horses typically have the edge, with historical stats indicating that high-drawn front-runners perform exceptionally well. Low draws can become more competitive only when the ground is genuinely soft. [1, 2, 3]
- 6 Furlongs: The bias is much less pronounced over 6 furlongs compared to the 5-furlong sprint. However, in larger fields, a slight edge to higher numbers is still frequently observed. [1]
- 7 Furlongs / 1 Mile: Over longer trips, low draws can sometimes be at a disadvantage, though results are heavily dependent on the individual running styles and pace of the field. [1, 2]
Paul Brown
Colt
Paul Brown
Colt
2.40 Thirsk 6F. Not the easiest race to deal with and it really is a no go for me. Just putting it up for a bit of fun.
No 1 on the card is Stormy Pearl. Has been running well and has good PRB figures recently.
Apprentice ridden
I prefer 10 runner handicaps myself so this field is just too big and too open. top 3 selections
no 1 Stormy Pearl (drawn 5)
no 13 Ellie's De Vega (13)
no 4 Mrs Trump (4)
I wonder how the draw will work out?
Pace ?
No 1 on the card is Stormy Pearl. Has been running well and has good PRB figures recently.
Apprentice ridden
Mikey Sheehy
Licence Apprentice
Lowest riding weight in last 12 months 8st 9lbI prefer 10 runner handicaps myself so this field is just too big and too open. top 3 selections
no 1 Stormy Pearl (drawn 5)
no 13 Ellie's De Vega (13)
no 4 Mrs Trump (4)
I wonder how the draw will work out?
Pace ?
| 1 (5) | Beaten favourite last time at Carlisle. 5-time winner who likes to lead or go prominent. Below last winning mark; huge player from a good low draw. |
| 2 (17) | Out of form last time at Carlisle. Wide draw (17) makes things very tough here. Needs to settle better. |
| 3 (6) | Stepped forward when 4th at Ripon last time out. Creeping down the weights and acts on good ground. Under the radar. |
| 4 (4) | Won this exact race last year off a higher mark. Out of form recently, the yard is firing. |
| 5 (15) | Excellent 2nd at Ripon 14 days ago despite a bad start. Big threat if he gets across smoothly from stall 15. |
| 6 (10) | Returned with a solid 2nd at Southwell on the AW. Turf record is poorer (0 wins from 9 starts), making him a risky proposition. |
| 7 (7) | Beaten favourite last time out when a close 2nd at Hamilton. Gets first-time blinkers here to sharpen him up. Clear threat. |
| 8 (8) | Veteran 11-time winner. Lacked change of pace at Doncaster last time out but his rating is slipping to a dangerous level. |
| 9 (16) | Respectable 4th at Musselburgh 9 days ago. Handles a sound surface well, but the draw out wide complicates his hold-up style. |
| 10 (1) | Three-year-old taking on elders. Disappointing at Catterick last time out and others look sharper. |
| 11 (14) | Returns from a 102-day break. Both career wins came on the All-Weather; 0-for-3 on turf so far. |
| 12 (2) | Unplaced in all 8 career starts. Finished 5th at Newcastle last time out; step back up to 6f suits but needs significant progression. |
| 13 (3) | Highly consistent 3yo place-getter. Possesses the highest pace rating (9) in the field and has drawn perfectly in stall 3 to bounce out and dictate. |
| 14 (11) | Fair 4th at Wetherby over 5f. On a long losing run and just about stretches out to a true 6f. |
| 15 (12) | Both career wins have come on the AW. Form on turf is currently 0 from 5. Hard to recommend. |
| 16 (19) | Out of form since late 2025. Handled a brutal wide draw (19) which sinks her chances further. |
| 17 (18) | 1 place from 17 starts. Hard to make any logical case based on recent performances. |
| 18 (9) | Sports first-time cheekpieces and a tongue-tie. Down significantly in trip, but hasn't shown enough yet. |
| 19 (13) | 0 wins from 10 starts. Struggled at Wolverhampton last time and looks up against it here. |
Paul Brown
Colt
Stormy Pearl was slowly away according to the commentary.
14:40 Thirsk
1
5Barmyblade (IRE)9/1
2
16Indy's Angel25/1
3
9Golden Prosperity (IRE)22/1
4
3Night Emperor (IRE)13/2
Paul Brown
Colt
3.10 Thirsk
Thought i had sent this
Now aftertimed
Thought i had sent this
Now aftertimed
| No. | Draw | Horse | Total_100 |
1 | 11 | Showtown (IRE) | 63.7 |
2 | 6 | Saucy Jane | 78.4 |
3 | 2 | Go Lockers Go | 75.4 |
4 | 5 | Houndhill | 65.8 |
6 | 4 | Liverpool Star (IRE) | 65.6 |
7 | 9 | Simbas Pride | 58.5 |
8 | 3 | Kings Road Dandy (IRE) | 48.8 |
9 | 8 | Celtic Arrow (FR) | 61.8 |
10 | 10 | Masai Angel (FR) | 29.5 |
11 | 12 | Country Artiste (IRE) | 69.2 |
12 | 7 | Hares Bredth | 53.6 |
Last edited:
Paul Brown
Colt
3.40 Thirsk
| No. | Draw | Total_100 |
1 | 2 | 84.1 |
2 | 5 | 85.5 |
3 | 3 | 72.5 |
4 | 1 | 77.6 |
5 | 4 | 69.3 |
Paul Brown
Colt
| No. | Draw | Horse | Total_100 |
1 | 2 | Asia Force (IRE) | 84.1 |
2 | 5 | York Tower | 85.5 |
3 | 3 | Yafreh | 72.5 |
4 | 1 | Temple | 77.6 |
5 | 4 | Parisian Scholar | 69.3 |
Paul Brown
Colt
4.10 Thirsk
| No. | Draw | Horse | Total_100 |
10 | 9 | Juan Les Pins | 92.5 |
9 | 3 | Bergerac | 86.8 |
2 | 6 | Veblen Good | 84.5 |
4 | 8 | Strong Warrior | 82.5 |
5 | 2 | Indian Run | 80 |
3 | 5 | Novello Lad | 77.2 |
7 | 1 | American Style | 77.2 |
8 | 4 | Westmorian | 73.4 |
6 | 10 | Lord Roxby | 70 |
11 | 7 | Mister Sox | 66.5 |