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My Selecections (pinstickers guide)

Amazing difference between SP and BFSP JUST JUMP (IRE).
3.5f6.79 BFSP

Went to post early wearing red hood, dwelt and awkward start, towards rear, stumbled after just over a furlong, pushed along and switched left for headway 2f out, ridden in fourth over 1f out, pressed leader approaching 110yds out, led closing stages op 7/2 tchd 9/4
 
4.02 Carlisle
Ellusive Butterfly
Going to have a look at this race when I get back from a birthday meal.

Carlisle today so a totally different track to last run.
Also entered for;
Thursday, 09 July 2026 - 5:55
(Early closer) at Leopardstown XIN GIN Irish EBF Brownstown Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies & Mares) (7f)

Last two runs
Took keen hold, made all, switched to near side over 2f out, soon reduced lead, faced challenge over 1f out, gamely (op 11/1 tchd 8/1) Epsom

Took keen hold, soon held up in midfield, waiting for room over 2f out, not clear run when headway inside final furlong, not pace to challenge (jockey said filly was denied a clear run on several occasion from 2f out) York
 
Just off out but I hope Altareq runs a better race than it did last time. Not a bad prize to go for. Maybe helped by the drop in class. Only had 6 races so possible improvement coming shortly. Carlisle
 
Groks assessment of the 4.02 Carlisle. Timeform free racepass. ;
This is a competitive 3yo fillies' Listed race over ~7f at Carlisle (Good to Firm), with a strong pace forecast and prominent runners favoured.

myracing.com +1
Key ContendersAlbaydaa (2.75) stands out as the classy pick. William Haggas-trained, by Pinatubo, she won easily at Carlisle over 6.9f last time (impressive 5.5L romp in a lesser race) and was a solid 2nd at Ascot prior. She has progressive ratings (TFR 107), handles the trip/ground, and has strong pedigree. The "traded twice her SP" hint suggests she was well-backed and performed. Low draw (2) is fine here with no strong bias.

racingpost.com +1
Ellusive Butterfly (3.75) is the other main player. Recent Listed winner at Epsom (7f, Gd/Sft), travels strongly, and has solid placed form. Karl Burke + Clifford Lee is a strong combo. Her pace profile (mostly held up) fits the hint that a strong pace helps her without disadvantaging prominent types too much. TFR 109 edges it on ratings. Draw 3 is ideal.

racingpost.com
Golden Palace (5.0ish) has prominent/pace-running style that suits the track and pace map. Recent 3rd at Musselburgh; has bits of Group form but inconsistent. Richard Fahey filly with speed in pedigree. Likely to go forward from stall 1.

sportinglife.com
Others to Consider
  • Applesandpears (9.0): Prominent runner, recent Carlisle 3rd, hot trainer. Could go well at a price.
  • Just A Girl: Horse for the course, front-runner, but looks a notch below on ratings.
  • Stimulative Trip, Classic Cuvee (hot trainer), etc., are longer shots with questions to answer at this level.
Pace and Track FactorsStrong pace is likely (Assaranca, Golden Palace, Confide In Me, etc., have early speed). The specific hint highlights that prominent runners are key here, and a strong pace should suit Ellusive Butterfly coming from off it (without collapsing the race for her). Carlisle 7f has no major draw bias on good/firm ground.
 
Timeform Verdict (straight from the data):
GOLDEN PALACE is the Analyst’s selection. She has been highly tried after early promise but posted her best effort when third in Listed company at Musselburgh (7f) 18 days ago. A return to this stiffer track is expected to see her to even better effect, and she shades preference over ELLUSIVE BUTTERFLY, who is giving weight away all round. ALBAYDAA (C&D winner) and STIMULATIVE TRIP are the best of the others.Timeform Ratings (TFR)
  • Ellusive Butterfly — 109
  • Golden Palace — 108
  • Albaydaa — 107
  • Figjam / Applesandpears / Stimulative Trip — 103
  • Just A Girl — 102
  • Others 97 and below
Timeform Betting Forecast
  • 4.5 Ellusive Butterfly
  • 5.0 Golden Palace
  • 8.0 Figjam
  • 9.0 Albaydaa
  • 10 Stimulative Trip
  • 12 Applesandpears
  • 13 Just A Girl
  • 15 Classic Cuvee
  • 23 Assaranca / Confide In Me
Key Timeform Comments
  • Golden Palace (Fahey): Lengthy filly with smart sprinting relatives. Improved to a solid Listed 3rd last time. Acts on good to firm and should be suited by this stiffer 7f. Prominent racer from stall 1 — fits the track’s usual bias toward forward runners.
  • Ellusive Butterfly (Burke): Recent Listed winner at Epsom. Travels strongly and stays 1m. Often held up, so the strong pace should suit, though she’s conceding weight to most. Strong Carlisle record for the yard.
  • Albaydaa (Haggas): Course-and-distance winner last time (easy success). Progressive and handles good to firm. Haggas has strong mid-season and 7-10f stats.
  • Stimulative Trip (Menuisier): Hot trainer. Won a 7f maiden last year; some encouragement possible at this level.
  • Applesandpears (Bethell): Prominent runner, C&D third last time. Hot yard.
Pace angle (Timeform): Strong pace likely. Prominent types are usually favoured at this trip/track, which helps Golden Palace, Just A Girl, and Applesandpears particularly. The specific hint notes that even with the strong pace, Ellusive Butterfly should still be able to land a blow. No draw bias.Timeform Summary:
The race revolves around Golden Palace (preferred) and Ellusive Butterfly (main danger, despite weight). Albaydaa is the progressive C&D option in the mix. It’s a proper Listed contest with the top three on TFR all having solid claims.
 
I wonder if there is going to be a bit of a burn up in the last race. Not many runners so those inbehind should be able to challenge without too many traffic problems. Timeform forecasting a weak pace. So maybe I'm barking up the wrong tree.
 
My small bet tonight is for first half goals double Over 1/2 goal double
Switzerland V Canada over 1/2 goal first half
Scotland v Brazil over 1/2 goal first half
around even money for the double
 
Paul Brown said:
I wonder if there is going to be a bit of a burn up in the last race. Not many runners so those inbehind should be able to challenge without too many traffic problems. Timeform forecasting a weak pace. So maybe I'm barking up the wrong tree.
Click to expand...
17:35 Carlisle

Wednesday 24 June 2026
All14:0014:3015:0015:3016:0216:3517:0517:35

Racing Staff Week Fillies' Handicap​

    • 3YO plus | Class 4 | 6f 195y | Good to Firm | 6 Runners | Turf | Weighed In
  • Off time: 17:35 | Winning time: 1m 25.80s
RacecardLive OddsResult
1st


6
(5)
Who Wants Me
48-11
11/1
T: I JardineJ: A Mullen
Slowly away, held up in rear, headway on inside 3f out, led over 1f out, hard pressed towards finish, just held on op 12/1 tchd 10/1
My Stable
2nd

nse
1
(1)
Mostar Dreams
510-2
15/2
T: A KeatleyJ: Mikey Sheehy
Held up in fourth, switched left and headway over 2f out, chased winner 1f out, ran on inside final furlong, just failed op 17/2 tchd 9/1
My Stable
3rd

2 ½
5
(4)
Nanoscience
38-13
13/8f
T: A M BaldingJ: P J McDonald
Chased leader, every chance over 1f out, third and no impression inside final furlong op 9/4 tchd 6/4
My Stable
4th

½
2
(2)
Donna Nook
49-5
11/2
T: D O'MearaJ: D Tudhope
Led, ridden 2f out, headed over 1f out, stayed on one pace inside final furlong op 6/1 tchd 5/1
My Stable
5th

hd
4
(3)
Shushu
39-2
11/4
T: R VarianJ: Ray Dawson
Chased leaders, switched left over 4f out, green and lost place over 2f out, stayed on final 110 yards op 13/8
My Stable
6th

3 ¼
3
(6)
Rogue Attraction
39-5
9/1
T: E BethellJ: K Stott
Veered left start, towards rear, closed on outside over 4f out, weakened from over 1f out op 15/2 tchd 13/2
 
Paul Brown said:
4.02 Carlisle
Ellusive Butterfly
Going to have a look at this race when I get back from a birthday meal.

Carlisle today so a totally different track to last run.
Also entered for;
Thursday, 09 July 2026 - 5:55
(Early closer) at Leopardstown XIN GIN Irish EBF Brownstown Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies & Mares) (7f)

Last two runs
Took keen hold, made all, switched to near side over 2f out, soon reduced lead, faced challenge over 1f out, gamely (op 11/1 tchd 8/1) Epsom

Took keen hold, soon held up in midfield, waiting for room over 2f out, not clear run when headway inside final furlong, not pace to challenge (jockey said filly was denied a clear run on several occasion from 2f out) York
Click to expand...
16:02 Carlisle
1st

Ellusive Butterfly (IRE)5/2
 
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