My Selecections (pinstickers guide)

[Paul Brown]

Pace and Draw York; 1.30 York

2020 by Dave Renham

York Racecourse: Draw & Pace Bias geegeez.co.uk

In a recent article I combined my draw bias roots with a more recently acquired interest in pace / running styles to overview their collective impact

www.geegeez.co.uk

2025 First 4 home Drawn 5,18,14,1 ... 20 Ran

led, shaken up over 1f out, asserted final 100 yds, kept up to work
prominent, pushed along over 2f out, ran on
slowly away, off pace, headway over 1f out, ran on
handy, pushed along before halfway, kept on


2024 First 4 home Drawn 15, 18,12, 8 ... 21 Ran

held up, ridden over 2f out, switched over 1f out, edged left inside final 1f, led close home
chased leaders, pushed along over 2f out, led approaching final 1f, headed close home
close up, pushed along over 2f out, ran on
led group, ridden soon after halfway, no extra inside final 1f

Jonny Concrete remains the horse to beat IMO. Good luck

 

[Paul Brown]

1.30 York

"Chasing Glory, One Stride at a Time."

Cloth	Draw		Horse	Eq	Trainer	Jockey	Wgt	Rating
1​	-3​	-82​	MAE AMOR (IRE) 6	(v)	REBECCA MENZIES	T. Kiely-Marshall (5)	9-11	529​
2​	-17​	-80​	AL HUSSAR 7	(b)	GRANT TUER	Oliver Stammers	9-9	662​	**
3​	-13​	-80​	AN OUTLAW'S GRACE (IRE) 12	(s)	RICHARD HANNON	Alec Voikhansky	9-9	551​
4​	-7​	-80​	PAPA COCKTAIL (IRE) 21	None	MICHAEL HERRINGTON	Oisin James Orr	9-9	650​	*
5​	-21​	-80​	KINIRO 15	None	DAN HORSFORD	Jack Nicholls (5)	9-9	599​	*
6​	-1​	-79​	ALMARADA PRINCE (IRE) 37	None	PAUL MIDGLEY	Billy Garritty	9-8	556​
7​	-8​	-79​	KATS BOB 21	(v)	RUTH CARR	William Pyle	9-8	558​
8​	-18​	-79​	MISTER SOX 21	(s)	TIM EASTERBY	S. B. Kirrane	9-8	553​
9​	-11​	-79​	YES I'M MALI 7	None	DAVID O'MEARA	Daniel Tudhope	9-8	661​	**
10​	-10​	-79​	JONNY CONCRETE (IRE) 6	(b)	IAIN JARDINE	Shane Gray	9-8	742​	***
11​	-2​	-79​	DAKOTA GOLD 231	None	MICHAEL DODS	Connor Beasley	9-8	526​
12​	-6​	-78​	LORD ROXBY (IRE) 14	None	NIGEL TINKLER	Ethan Tindall (5)	9-7	527​
13​	-16​	-77​	EL BUFALO 2	(s+t)	THOMAS FAULKNER	Non Runner	9-6	529​
14​	-14​	-77​	MIRACULOUS (IRE) 7	None	TIM EASTERBY	Oisin McSweeney	9-6	502​
15​	-15​	-76​	INTERVENTION 15	None	MICHAEL APPLEBY	Andrew Mullen	9-5	567​
16​	-22​	-76​	BEATTIE IS BACK 85	None	RICHARD & PETER FAHEY	Warren Fentiman (3)	9-5	484​
17​	-5​	-76​	JENEVER 19	(v)1	JESSICA MACEY	George Wood	9-5	481​
18​	-12​	-75​	FORTAMOUR (IRE) 15	None	BEN HASLAM	Joanna Mason	9-4	532​
19​	-20​	-80​	TRILBY 2	(s+t)1	SAM ENGLAND	P. J. McDonald	9-9	557​
20​	-19​	-75​	ORNE (IRE) 8	(b)	ANTONY BRITTAIN	Cam Hardie	9-4	505​
21​	-4​	-75​	BLIND BEGGAR (IRE) 41	(s)	JESSICA MACEY	Taryn Langley (5)	9-4	519​
22​	-9​	-75​	TIRIAC 7	(s)	PAUL MIDGLEY	Barry McHugh	9-4	563​

York Results​

HIDETOP ^

13:30 WILLIAM HILL KEEP YOUR RACEDAY POSITIVE HANDICAP (4)

1st		12. LORD ROXBY (IRE) 11
2nd		9. YES I'M MALI 7
3rd		19. TRILBY 15
4th		10. JONNY CONCRETE (IRE) 5.5 jf
20 ran. NRs: EL BUFALO, FORTAMOUR (IRE).

 

[Paul Brown]

When Duran Fentimen put his stick in at Haydock is was very worrying.

 

[Paul Brown]

3.20 Curragh
Not my type of race but thought I would have a go at a Group 2 race;

No. Draw Horse Rating
1 -6 California Dreamer 140.7
2 -7 Carolina Jetstream 148
3 -12 Celestial Orbit 211.2
4 -5 City Of Memphis 257
5 -8 Francophone 223.3
6 -4 Hey Boo 172.9
7 -1 Jancis 224.2
8 -10 One Look 263.2
9 -11 Princess Child 213.3
10 -9 Quebec 130.4
11 -2 Sindria 175.7
12 -3 Stateira 201.2

15:20 LANWADES STUD STAKES (Group 2)

1st		4. CITY OF MEMPHIS (IRE) 2/1 jf
2nd		2. CAROLINA JETSTREAM 66/1
3rd		12. STATEIRA (FR) 22/1
All 12 ran.

 

[Paul Brown]

3.40 Leicester

Runner-by-Runner Analysis​

• 1. Shazani On a tempting mark compared to his peak form last autumn over further, but his spring performances have been thoroughly disappointing. He was far too sharp and lit up by the addition of blinkers on his last two outings, dropping away tamely on his all-weather debut at Southwell 26 days ago. Combined with a tricky wide draw in stall 8, he is difficult to fancy until showing signs of a revival.
• 2. Jimmy Knocker He hasn’t been seen since dynamic summer exploits last season, which culminated in a career-best victory at Newmarket's July course off a 4lb lower mark. He excels on a sound surface over this trip, and while the form of his last win looks robust, a 297-day absence means he is highly likely to need this blowout before peaking.
• 3. Spirit Of Jenny The consensus selection across the major morning sheets. She arrives at the top of her game following a close second and a gritty six-furlong victory at Southwell this spring. While she is versatile enough to translate that progressive all-weather form back to turf, her handicap mark has risen 3lb and leaves little room for error on this faster ground.
• 4. Dark Side Thunder A highly experienced operator who has dropped below his last winning mark. He ran a fine second at Yarmouth two starts back but completely blew out over this course and distance 16 days ago when doing far too much upfront. He is notoriously inconsistent on turf compared to the all-weather, but the stable switches gear today—replacing the visor with first-time cheekpieces—which could spark a bounce-back.
• 5. Skellig Isle A massive technical eyecatcher. She won well on her stable debut for Philip McBride over five furlongs and backed that up with a close, flashing-fourth over this trip at Wolverhampton. She gets a crucial 1lb relief from the handicapper today, acts beautifully on a sound turf surface, and the booking of leading young rider Billy Loughnane signals intent.
• 6. Looks Fantastic Off the mark for the Mick Appleby yard over seven furlongs at Redcar in April, but failed to back it up over the same course and distance last time when ridden too aggressively. He clearly handles good to firm ground, but he is inherently erratic and has significant tactical questions to answer on his first competitive try at this sharper six-furlong trip.
• 7. Fenlander Still a 16-race maiden, but this represents a massive opportunity to break his duck. He simply failed to stay seven furlongs here last time out. Prior to that, his sprint form on the all-weather and fast turf was rock-solid. Dropping back to six furlongs on a career-low mark makes him a dangerous proposition given his clear liking for the venue.
• 8. Call Glory A real model of consistency on the all-weather earlier this year, but his turf record leaves a lot to be desired (just 1-for-20). He was well-beaten over seven furlongs at Lingfield six days ago, but his previous two close-up efforts over this track and trip show he can handle the environment. If they go a ferocious gallop up front, he can hit the frame late.

Cloth	Draw	OR	Horse	Eq	Trainer	Jockey	Rating
1​	-8​	-69​	SHAZANI (FR) 26	(b)	ROY BOWRING	George Wood	305.4​
2​	-6​	-68​	JIMMY KNOCKER (IRE) 297	(t)	ANDI BROWN	Dylan Hogan	603.5​
3​	-3​	-68​	SPIRIT OF JENNY (IRE) 25	None	STEPH HOLLINSHEAD	Dougie Costello	572.2​
4​	-4​	-67​	DARK SIDE THUNDER 16	(s)	JESSICA MACEY	Lewis Edmunds	422.8​
5​	-5​	-64​	SKELLIG ISLE 20	None	PHILIP MCBRIDE	Billy Loughnane	502.8​
6​	-2​	-63​	LOOKS FANTASTIC 18	None	MICHAEL APPLEBY	Alistair Rawlinson	509.5​
7​	-7​	-59​	FENLANDER 16	None	PAM SLY	Kieran O'Neill	483.3​
8​	-1​	-58​	CALL GLORY (IRE) 6	None	IAN WILLIAMS	Ryan Kavanagh (5)	523.7​

 

[Paul Brown]

My second set of ratings as a check that I havent missed anything;

My first day back betting so just one race I'll have time to complete. Good luck to everyone over the rest of the flat season.

Cloth	Draw	OR	Horse	Rating
1​	-8​	-69​	SHAZANI (FR) 26	109​
2​	-6​	-68​	JIMMY KNOCKER (IRE) 297	215​
3​	-3​	-68​	SPIRIT OF JENNY (IRE) 25	173​
4​	-4​	-67​	DARK SIDE THUNDER 16	136​
5​	-5​	-64​	SKELLIG ISLE 20	144​
6​	-2​	-63​	LOOKS FANTASTIC 18	174​
7​	-7​	-59​	FENLANDER 16	166​
8​	-1​	-58​	CALL GLORY (IRE) 6	147​

"Chasing Glory, One Stride at a Time."

 

[Paul Brown]

First day back betting and quite pleased with a loss of £1.95. Pilu in the 4.50 was my last bet of the day and ran a solid race but unfortunately came up against a nice horse. Total stake £132. It could have been worse

 

[Paul Brown]

One hopes that this scary virus does not take a grip on British horseracing;

Equine influenza: update on measures for trainers and teams | British Horseracing Authority

www.britishhorseracing.com

"Chasing Glory, One Stride at a Time."

 

[Paul Brown]

Racecard | British Horseracing Authority

www.britishhorseracing.com

 

[Paul Brown]

https://betting.betfair.com/horse-racing/market-movers/

 

[Paul Brown]

3.30 Bath

No.	Draw	Horse
1​	-4​	Obsidian Dream	434.9​
2​	-3​	Tuscan Point	638.4​
3​	-2​	Early Release	448.7​
4​	-1​	Strike	539.5​
5​	-5​	Phoenix Moon	562​

 

[Paul Brown]

3.30 Bath

No.	Draw	Horse
1​	-4​	Obsidian Dream	434.9​
2​	-3​	Tuscan Point	638.4​
3​	-2​	Early Release	448.7​
4​	-1​	Strike	539.5​
5​	-5​	Phoenix Moon	562​

Interesting race. My eyes a drawn to on of the larger prices in Obsidian Dream. In its lifetime form it has only had 8 races, winning one of them which was a maiden in 2024. Taking a chance to small stakes with this one.

Timeline

• September 2024: Earns his sole career victory in a Bath maiden.
• October 2024: Steps up to Class 2 level, finishing a solid 4th of 14 runners.
• Early 2025: Drops drastically in form, starting with a poor run in March at Kempton.
• 23rd July 2025: Undergoes corrective wind surgery to address underlying respiratory issues.
• December 2025: Returns for his first post-surgery run (Class 3, Wolverhampton), finishing well down the field.
• January 2026: Drops to a Class 5 at Lingfield for his second run after the wind op, finishing a highly encouraging 3rd of 8, went third inside final 110yds, no match for first two.
• Good luck today. If the history is slightly wrong, I appologize.

 

[Paul Brown]

With horses like Ken Brulee winning the 6.54 race, my last race of the day. Profit, Total P&L: £14.62 and turnover to follow;

Turnover

147.85​

roughly 9.9p profit per £1 staked

 

[Paul Brown]

3.05 Hamilton

No.	Draw	Horse	Rating
1​	-6​	Back To Me	149.2​
2​	-7​	Tricky Tel	230.1​	***
3​	-1​	Sierra Sands	183.1​
4​	-8​	Siouxpersonic	186.2​	**
5​	-2​	Watchdog	185.1​	**
6​	-4​	March Ahead	166.5​
7​	-5​	Douwantitrightnow	122.9​
8​	-3​	Falcon Queen	153.3​

Good luck today

"Chasing Glory, One Stride at a Time."

 

[Paul Brown]

Missed a bit of the day and traffic on the way back was S**t. Anyway 3rd day of betting; Profit /stake £ to follow

Total stake

£49.00​

Profit , Total P&L: £46.57

"Chasing Glory, One Stride at a Time."

 

[Paul Brown]

3.07 Ripon

"Chasing Glory, One Stride at a Time."

No.	Draw	Horse	Rating
1​	-8​	North West Gal	132.6​
2​	-6​	Black Missile	157.1​	***
3​	-5​	Valor Spirit	134.4​
4​	-9​	Come On Over	129.5​
5​	-7​	Uncertainty	114.6​
6​	-1​	Great Success	115.9​
7​	-11​	Country Artiste	136.2​
8​	-4​	Head For Freedom	144.3​	*
9​	-2​	Solar Cooper	114.7​
10​	-10​	Simba's Pride	153.2​	***
11​	-3​	Northern Tempest	118​

The 15:07 Ripon Runner Guide​

• 1. North West Gal: Ended her juvenile campaign with a 5f Newcastle AW novice win. She caught the eye on her seasonal return/handicap debut at Catterick over 6f, running an encouraging fifth while meeting trouble when short of room near the finish. Raced a bit freely there, but she's entitled to strip fitter and enters the calculation on a fair mark if she settles better.
• 2. Black Missile: Highly consistent juvenile who placed on his first three starts. Made a very promising handicap debut/seasonal reappearance at Beverley (5f), though he showed greenness by pulling hard and hanging left under pressure. He gets a first-time cheekpieces (1st-cp) assignment today, and stepping back up to 6f looks a massive positive.
• 3. Valor Spirit: A six-time placer as a juvenile who stays on a workable mark, but represents a new stable (Bryan Smart) following a 20,000gns autumn transfer and a subsequent gelding operation. Disliked the heavy ground when last seen 217 days ago; handles any other surface, though the market will best indicate readiness after the break.
• 4. Come On Over: Yet to win in eight career starts and has looked out of sorts on his first two runs for David O'Meara over an inadequate 5f trip. However, he met traffic on his stable debut and has slipped to a competitive mark. Relishes returning to 6f—the trip over which he placed in a nursery last autumn—making him a live shortlist threat.
• 5. Uncertainty: Showed useful ability when runner-up in a 7f nursery last year for Richard Hannon, but has looked entirely unenthusiastic and out of sorts on both outings for Simon Whitaker. Pulled way too hard and finished a well-beaten last at Doncaster 12 days ago; possesses significant temperament questions to answer.
• 6. Great Success: Remains unexposed after just four lifetime starts but has bit to prove. He was heavily made use of on his seasonal return/handicap debut at Leicester over 7f, but raced far too freely and faded tamely. Drops back in trip here but faces a tough tactical challenge from a wide draw out on the wing.
• 7. Country Artiste: Appears to be on a downward trajectory, proving thoroughly underwhelming in two all-weather outings for Craig Lidster this January. Now 0-9 overall; while returning to 6f is a positive move, it is difficult to enthuse over her chances following a four-month absence.
• 8. Head For Freedom: Shaped with distinct promise when a close fourth over course and distance on his return in April. His subsequent unplaced effort at Beverley is remarkably easy to excuse as he suffered costly mid-race interference. Currently operating below his last winning mark, handles a sound surface well, and looks poised to bounce back.
• 9. Solar Cooper: Bounced back from two poor stable runs to register a clear course and distance victory here 11 days ago. He has a 50% or better strike rate over this C&D and remains competitively weighted despite a 6lb penalty. The catch is that he bizarrelry runs without the cheekpieces that triggered that recent win, and has a trickier draw.
• 10. Simba's Pride: A progressive, natural sprinter on a clear upward trajectory. Followed up a tidy Hamilton win with an excellent, rallying second over course and distance 11 days ago, where he was unluckily touched off by a neck after trading at 50% or less of his starting Betfair SP. He runs from the exact same mark before a 1lb rise kicks in, occupies the favored stands' side rail, and is strongly fancied to overcome Ripon's hold-up disadvantage. The standout selection.
• 11. Northern Tempest: Has been soundly beaten in both all-weather handicaps this spring after pulling his jockey's arms out. Still unplaced in all five career starts; while returning to 6f will help, his breathing is clearly a worry with a tongue-tie fitted, and stablemate Simba's Pride is heavily preferred.

 

[Paul Brown]

End of day for me.Total P&L: £37.28.
Stakes to follow.
Backed my first 2yo of the season and it won well.Things are ticking along nicely, so I'm preparing for a losing day as I know it's coming sooner or later. I'm keeping to low stakes at the moment as it's my first week back using real money. When I've built the bank up, I will be happier and more confident.