• Hi Guest Just in case you were not aware I wanted to highlight that you can now get a free 7 day trial of Horseracebase here.
    We have a lot of members who are existing users of Horseracebase so help is always available if needed, as well as dedicated section of the fourm here.
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    AR

My Selecections (pinstickers guide)

3.25 Beverley
Air Force One looks ok and that run at York is a cracker (last year)
Venture Capital - over its lifetime Gelded, wind surgery and now blinkers ? Dropping in the weights

No Bet
 
Paul Brown said:
3.25 Beverley
Air Force One looks ok and that run at York is a cracker (last year)
Venture Capital - over its lifetime Gelded, wind surgery and now blinkers ? Dropping in the weights

No Bet
Click to expand...
15:25 BeverleyRace Card

13Air Force One (IRE)9/2
29I'm Next28/1
31Corolla Point (IRE)10/11 f

Air Force One had to sit and wait for a run but went with a woosh when the gap appeared. Maybe more to come ?
Venture Capital disappointing
 
17:57 COUNTRY & WESTERN NIGHT 25th APRIL HANDICAP (6) (AWT) 4f 214y
Pace Forecast: Very Strong
E D Horse Eq Trainer Jockey Wgt OR Rating Last three runs
1 (9) FORTUNATE STAR (IRE) 13 (v) STEPHEN HANLON Conor Whiteley (7) 9-9 (58)
2 (2) ALFA SEA BREEZE (IRE) 32 (t)1 IVAN FURTADO David Nolan 9-8 (57)
3 (8) IRISH DANCER (IRE) 18 (t) DECLAN CARROLL Harry Smith (7) 9-7 (56)
4 (5) BANG ON THE BELL 7 (b) J. R. JENKINS Jonny Peate 9-7 (56)
5 (7) INVITORIO (IRE) 7 RUTH CARR Connor Beasley 9-2 (51)
6 (6) POETIC JACK 48 (v)1 ROBERT COWELL Jack Callan (5) 8-12 (47)
7 (10) NOBLE PHOENIX (IRE) 16 DAVID FLOOD Sean Dylan Bowen 8-11 (46)
8 (3) ANGLESEY LAD (IRE) 309 SCOTT DIXON Kieran O'Neill 8-11 (46)
9 (1) DESERT MASTER 34 (v) ANTONY BRITTAIN Alex Jary (3) 8-10 (45)
10 (4) HI HOH TONTO 39 ROSS BURDON William Cox 8-10 (45)
 
Ask Grok;
Outstanding trainers at Southwell AW (especially 5f handicaps):
  • Declan Carroll — Strong historical record at Southwell (~12% strike rate overall, with solid placed rates in lower-grade sprints).
  • Ruth Carr — Very consistent performer here (around 8-9% strike rate from high volume; knows the track well with sprinters).
  • Robert Cowell — Respectable AW record (~13-17% at Southwell in recent seasons).
Current form context (as of 15 Apr 2026): Most yards in this race are operating at modest levels, with no trainer showing a standout recent hot streak in the provided data. Standout Trainer/Jockey combos with runners today:
  • Declan Carroll + Harry Smith (7lb claimer) on Irish Dancer (dual C&D winner; placed in both starts this year and looks a big player at 4/1).
  • Ruth Carr + Connor Beasley on Invitorio (recent turf runner-up; back on AW and well handicapped — 5 tips, 4/1).
Others to note:
  • Stephen Hanlon + Conor Whiteley (7lb claimer) on Fortunate Star (market favourite at 7/2; in-form with recent C&D placings and two classified wins).
  • Robert Cowell on Poetic Jack (visor first time; recent form suggests each-way claims).
This is a competitive Class 6 5f handicap where Irish Dancer and Invitorio stand out for course form and trainer/track familiarity.
 
Asked Grok to look at my ratings. It managed to read them and gave me the following; Your ratings align closely with the market favourites (Fortunate Star, Irish Dancer, Invitorio) and highlight Irish Dancer and Invitorio as particularly well-rated for their course/trainer profiles. This looks a tight Class 6 where C&D form and recent sharpness matter most. Good luck!
 
Asked Grok to look at the draw data from Adrian Masseys website and what it tells me about the race;
What this means for the 5:57 Southwell 5f handicap (12 runners on Tapeta):The bias is not extreme (unlike some historical fibresand-era stats that heavily favoured very low stalls), but there is a clear and profitable preference for low to low-middle stalls. High draws (especially 9-12) face a noticeable disadvantage, as they tend to race on the slower part of the track.Runners by draw in this race (stalls 1-12):
  • Favourable (Low / Low-Middle):
    • (1) Desert Master (dual C&D winner, recent form mixed but knows the track)
    • (2) Alfa Sea Breeze (tongue-tie first time)
    • (3) Anglesey Lad
    • (4) Hi Hoh Tonto
    • (5) Bang On The Bell
    • (6) Poetic Jack (visor first time)
  • Neutral / Less Favoured (Middle-High):
    • (7) Invitorio (your rating 58, recent turf 2nd)
    • (8) Irish Dancer (dual C&D winner, strongly fancied otherwise)
    • (9) Fortunate Star (favourite, in-form, but drawn widest of the main contenders)
    • (10) Noble Phoenix
Key takeaways for betting this race:
  • Fortunate Star (stall 9) and Irish Dancer (stall 8) are the two strongest form horses but sit in the less advantageous half of the draw. They will need to overcome that mild bias.
  • Invitorio (stall 7) is borderline and still has a reasonable chance given its recent improvement.
  • Horses drawn 1-6 get a small but statistically meaningful edge according to Massey's large sample. Desert Master (1) and Bang On The Bell (5) could be the best-drawn of the competitive ones.
In summary: The data supports a slight preference for lower stalls, making high-drawn runners like the top two in the market slightly harder to back at short prices. Pace will still be crucial on this straight track, but the draw gives a small edge to those on the inside/centre.
 
Paul Brown said:
Asked Grok to look at the draw data from Adrian Masseys website and what it tells me about the race;
What this means for the 5:57 Southwell 5f handicap (12 runners on Tapeta):The bias is not extreme (unlike some historical fibresand-era stats that heavily favoured very low stalls), but there is a clear and profitable preference for low to low-middle stalls. High draws (especially 9-12) face a noticeable disadvantage, as they tend to race on the slower part of the track.Runners by draw in this race (stalls 1-12):
  • Favourable (Low / Low-Middle):
    • (1) Desert Master (dual C&D winner, recent form mixed but knows the track)
    • (2) Alfa Sea Breeze (tongue-tie first time)
    • (3) Anglesey Lad
    • (4) Hi Hoh Tonto
    • (5) Bang On The Bell
    • (6) Poetic Jack (visor first time)
  • Neutral / Less Favoured (Middle-High):
    • (7) Invitorio (your rating 58, recent turf 2nd)
    • (8) Irish Dancer (dual C&D winner, strongly fancied otherwise)
    • (9) Fortunate Star (favourite, in-form, but drawn widest of the main contenders)
    • (10) Noble Phoenix
Key takeaways for betting this race:
  • Fortunate Star (stall 9) and Irish Dancer (stall 8) are the two strongest form horses but sit in the less advantageous half of the draw. They will need to overcome that mild bias.
  • Invitorio (stall 7) is borderline and still has a reasonable chance given its recent improvement.
  • Horses drawn 1-6 get a small but statistically meaningful edge according to Massey's large sample. Desert Master (1) and Bang On The Bell (5) could be the best-drawn of the competitive ones.
In summary: The data supports a slight preference for lower stalls, making high-drawn runners like the top two in the market slightly harder to back at short prices. Pace will still be crucial on this straight track, but the draw gives a small edge to those on the inside/centre.
Click to expand...
 
Asked Grok;

Pace bias analysis
What about pace rating such as Attheraces data for this race

Searching the web
30 results
At The Races (ATR) pace data / run-style analysis for Southwell 5f handicaps (Tapeta straight track) shows a clear bias towards prominent/front-running types.Key Insights from ATR-linked stats and supporting analyses (Geegeez, drawbias.com, etc.):
  • Front-runners / Prominent racers have a strong edge over 5f at Southwell. In recent Tapeta samples (around 40+ handicaps), leaders/prominent horses win far more often than expected, with high Percentage of Rivals Beaten (PRB) figures (often 55-60%+ for front/prominent vs much lower for midfield/held-up).
  • Hold-up horses (raced in rear) perform poorly — they struggle to make up ground on this straight course, especially in a competitive field. Come-from-behind types are at a notable disadvantage unless the pace collapses.
  • Early pace is "somewhat helpful from any stall," but being able to lead or race prominently is the biggest positive factor. Races are often run at a good gallop, rewarding those who can get a good position without over-exerting.
  • Combined with the mild low-to-middle draw edge (from Adrian Massey's data), the ideal profile is a horse that can lead or track the pace from a lowish draw (stalls 1-6).
Application to the 5:57 Southwell 5f Class 6 Handicap (12 runners):This race is likely to be run at a genuine pace (typical for Southwell sprints). Horses needing to come from the back will find it tough.Horses with prominent/pace advantages (based on recent running styles in the form/comments):
  • Fortunate Star (stall 9) — Often prominent or able to lead; in good recent form with C&D placings/wins in classifieds. Despite the higher draw, its pace helps mitigate the mild bias.
  • Irish Dancer (stall 8) — Dual C&D winner; usually races prominently or mid-division. Recent runner-up efforts suggest it can get a good position.
  • Bang On The Bell (stall 5) — Has shown pace in recent runs; back on AW after a turf 3rd. Low-middle draw + prominent style is a plus.
  • Desert Master (stall 1) — Dual C&D winner; often races up with the pace. Best-drawn horse with proven speed here.
  • Poetic Jack (stall 6) — Visor first time; recent form shows it can be prominent (caught late over 6f last time). Good low-middle draw.
Less favoured on pace:
  • Invitorio (stall 7) and Hi Hoh Tonto (stall 10) — Tend to race more in midfield/rear; recent improvement noted but they'll need the leaders to go too hard.
  • Hold-up types like Noble Phoenix or Anglesey Lad (if reverting to rear style) face an uphill task.
Combined Draw + Pace Verdict:
  • Best combinations: Low draw + prominent/early pace → Desert Master (1) and Bang On The Bell (5) get a tactical boost.
  • Fortunate Star and Irish Dancer remain strong contenders due to proven C&D ability and ability to race handy, even from wider stalls.
  • Your ratings (e.g. Irish Dancer 61, Invitorio 58, Fortunate Star 59) align with the market, but pace/draw filters suggest avoiding pure hold-up horses unless the race sets up unusually.
In short: Prominent racers from low-to-middle draws are the ones to concentrate on. This race should suit horses that can get a good early position without using too much energy. Good luck!
 
Paul Brown said:
Asked Grok;

Pace bias analysis
What about pace rating such as Attheraces data for this race

Searching the web
30 results
At The Races (ATR) pace data / run-style analysis for Southwell 5f handicaps (Tapeta straight track) shows a clear bias towards prominent/front-running types.Key Insights from ATR-linked stats and supporting analyses (Geegeez, drawbias.com, etc.):
  • Front-runners / Prominent racers have a strong edge over 5f at Southwell. In recent Tapeta samples (around 40+ handicaps), leaders/prominent horses win far more often than expected, with high Percentage of Rivals Beaten (PRB) figures (often 55-60%+ for front/prominent vs much lower for midfield/held-up).
  • Hold-up horses (raced in rear) perform poorly — they struggle to make up ground on this straight course, especially in a competitive field. Come-from-behind types are at a notable disadvantage unless the pace collapses.
  • Early pace is "somewhat helpful from any stall," but being able to lead or race prominently is the biggest positive factor. Races are often run at a good gallop, rewarding those who can get a good position without over-exerting.
  • Combined with the mild low-to-middle draw edge (from Adrian Massey's data), the ideal profile is a horse that can lead or track the pace from a lowish draw (stalls 1-6).
Application to the 5:57 Southwell 5f Class 6 Handicap (12 runners):This race is likely to be run at a genuine pace (typical for Southwell sprints). Horses needing to come from the back will find it tough.Horses with prominent/pace advantages (based on recent running styles in the form/comments):
  • Fortunate Star (stall 9) — Often prominent or able to lead; in good recent form with C&D placings/wins in classifieds. Despite the higher draw, its pace helps mitigate the mild bias.
  • Irish Dancer (stall 8) — Dual C&D winner; usually races prominently or mid-division. Recent runner-up efforts suggest it can get a good position.
  • Bang On The Bell (stall 5) — Has shown pace in recent runs; back on AW after a turf 3rd. Low-middle draw + prominent style is a plus.
  • Desert Master (stall 1) — Dual C&D winner; often races up with the pace. Best-drawn horse with proven speed here.
  • Poetic Jack (stall 6) — Visor first time; recent form shows it can be prominent (caught late over 6f last time). Good low-middle draw.
Less favoured on pace:
  • Invitorio (stall 7) and Hi Hoh Tonto (stall 10) — Tend to race more in midfield/rear; recent improvement noted but they'll need the leaders to go too hard.
  • Hold-up types like Noble Phoenix or Anglesey Lad (if reverting to rear style) face an uphill task.
Combined Draw + Pace Verdict:
  • Best combinations: Low draw + prominent/early pace → Desert Master (1) and Bang On The Bell (5) get a tactical boost.
  • Fortunate Star and Irish Dancer remain strong contenders due to proven C&D ability and ability to race handy, even from wider stalls.
  • Your ratings (e.g. Irish Dancer 61, Invitorio 58, Fortunate Star 59) align with the market, but pace/draw filters suggest avoiding pure hold-up horses unless the race sets up unusually.
In short: Prominent racers from low-to-middle draws are the ones to concentrate on. This race should suit horses that can get a good early position without using too much energy. Good luck!
Click to expand...
Those are not my ratings. I dont know how it has read the screen shot. Fortunate Star rating are in the hundreds. Maybe I caught it out ?
 
Paul Brown said:
My 3 are but thats not my ratings














Irish Dancer


Invitorio


Fortunate Star
Click to expand...
17:57 COUNTRY & WESTERN NIGHT 25th APRIL HANDICAP (6)
1st
Connor Beasleysilk
5. INVITORIO (IRE) 11/4 jf
2nd
Alex Jarysilk
9. DESERT MASTER 16/1
3rd
Conor Whiteleysilk
1. FORTUNATE STAR (IRE) 9/2
All 10 ran.
 

Urchin (gelded) 2.35 looked a nice horse, although at first glance looked as though it was lightly built and needed to fill out. Very nice performance but against unknown opposition. Racing post comment was ;​

Comments
Third over 1m here on sole 2yo start; pedigree suggests that he will relish this trip

Well the step up in distance certainly did suit.​

 
Mr Dreamseller (2.47 Thirsk 6th Feb 2026) had a spin at wolverhampton and won readily, unexposed type and drawn in 13 so is probably nicely placed. Could be anything so just a watching brief.
 
Paul Brown said:
5.45 Winchurch
Click to expand...
Miss Brazen won the race. The Easterbys had a 4% strike rate in the last 14 days but came good here. Miss Brazen had won on its seasonal 2nd run a couple of times AFAIA. This was its first run since October 2025. My top 3 for the race were Winchurch, Level Up and Initial Blue.
 
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