My kennel

[retriever]

I thought I'd better write something here just to mark my 'territory'.

I asked admin to set up this 'blog' really just as a place for me to pull in people who may be able to offer help in things I don't understand. I feel awkward clogging other peoples threads with irrelevant postings that could potentially add pages to them if everyone joins in.

I also have one key element that I wish to pursue and that is simply, he says , to target a profit from betting per month of 10 points. A small portfolio of 'strong' low odds systems, is the initial thought, using horse racing, football or whatever else.
Apart from the numerous tipping threads on this forum, I don't believe anyone really shows their hand with regards to 'betting to achieve a profit'......although, of course, it's a given that that is the end goal.
This will no doubt take a few months to perfect and I'm not even sure if it's feasible or achievable at this stage. The objective here is 10 points every month without fail.....

 

[Frontrunner]

Best of luck with this retriever

 

[retriever]

Updated plan for June.

My original plan regarding 10 points a month needs to change with regards to the target and how I am selecting my picks. When I started my aim was to gain 0.33 points per day and my selections were mostly odds-on football, tennis and horse place betting. I was betting in markets that I had no real edge and thus returned to horse win bets in an area I have more of an understanding.

Now I'm dutching in all the 5f-5½f races, every day, which can give an average of 10 bets per day, so my monthly target needs to be higher.

This is now going to be set at 50 points and I will stop if I reach this within the month.
My bank will need to be at least 200 points. If I ever reach a level of -200 points then I will consider the bank bust.

Optimistic of course, but if you don't strive, you won't thrive.
.

 

[OnTheNod]

I like the idea of more bets personally and not to exacting i dont feel it helps that much nowadays, i just worked mine out and it comes to 10.50625 each day.

But not that many two in one race selections which could work against profits, but my ways are different to yours so best try it for a while in that mode, i think 50pts is a fair goal so even if you fall short is still good going.

Good Luck!! with the project.

 

[retriever]

An on going story Re Tiger Crusade ( Kemp 7.45 ) I backed him lto @ 8/1 ( Sp 9/2 ) and while seldom one to blame the jockey i do not feel Spencer was seen at his best. Wen afternoon i backed him @ 9/2 for this evenings 6 run Chelm 8.0 he was smashed into 9/4. Just prior to Chelm being officially abandoned i also backed him @ 8/1 for tomorrows race so hopefully a case of third time lucky. !

While he has appeared disappointing on several occasions this year there have been some possible valid excuses involved. His most recent win ( 11Oct21 ) was over this CD and if he gets a decent ride and a clear run then off a 4lbs lower mark he could take Fridays race.

I think there is a possibility that Total Commitment will be a non-runner in this race. He raced today at Southwell 6f Cl4 and came 2nd of 5. He has been turned out quickly before ( 3 days ) so could run. I'm not interested in this horse - only that he has Stall 1 - which affects my stats.

A 3yo that stands out for me in this race is Tolstoy. The price just seems too big. I think the recent 'poor' form he's had is partly down to being drawn widest or 2nd widest in his last 5 starts and has run well from better draws previously.
Running from Stall 5, OR of 90 is ok and Muscutt is on board for the first time which can only be a positive.

Interesting, bet365 where not sticking their head on the block here pricing at 14/1 with everyone else 20/1+. I've taken 28's e/w.

No other selection for me as I'm putting my blinkers on here. Probably five others I like with equal positives and negatives so I'm just going to ignore them and hope for a good run from mine. Good luck.
.

Well you made a good case for Tolstoy and as you bet EW i am happy for you to claim a retrospective nose 2nd to Tiger .............please advise which Bookmaker you used if they paid you.

Hi mick
I see your Tiger Crusade has yet to return to the track since that UKBF Common race.
Tolstoy, however, is running today in the 4.56 at Southwell. Only seven runners annoyingly.

Price movement has been interesting. Yesterday W/Hill had this at 22/1 and I waited for others to come out. Everyone else came out at 20's and Hills fell into line. I thought it was prudent to take the 20's ( e/w )



This morning the price has more than halved. This is probably down to the Hollie Doyle factor. The draw factor at Southwell over 5f unfortunately doesn't play a part much over the straight course although there is a slight bias towards low and high numbers. Frontrunners and those prominent do best. Tolstoy is running from stall 1 and likes to be upfront.

But whatever the result I'm pleased to have got on at a price too big in my eyes ( which is what it's all about ) and that's been validated by the market this morning.
For me this is a horse to follow - I just love its pedigree.....
Sex - Gelding
Colour - Bay
Age - 4
Stallion - Kingman
Dam - War And Peace
Dams Stallion - Frankel
.

 

[mick]

retriever congrats for being ahead of the market and best wishes for Tolstoy getting the job done. Re Tiger these days i tend to focus on 5yo only so he can now do as he pleases ..........as long as this does not involve doing me if i am opposing him.

 

[retriever]

Thanks mick
That's interesting that you only focus on 5yo's - I guess that cut the work-load down. Obviously there's probably a statistical backing to doing so in the races you target and 5yo's profile the best with regards to their traits.

My main day-to-day routine now ( and going forwards ) is to only focus only on:-
Flat-AW / All-Aged-Handicaps / 3yo+ 4yo+ / 5f to 8.5f
I probably have you and markfinn ( UKBF common race ) for steering me in that direction......although I've always preferred sprint races....mainly looking for micro-draw bias.

The earlier I check the cards, the better for finding potential value and try to narrow a race down to three and back those in a Tote combination Exacta's. I then pick the best one for a Win or Each bet. Seems to be working well.

I would say to anyone reading this, however, that the trick is 'to keep on keeping on' with your MO......specially in the bad patches. If you work ( hard ) to find the edge then long-term you shouldn't lose.

Good luck this year with your punting.

 

[mick]

Good thoughts above retriever and your race type is the same as mine. I use my own ratings as a starting point at the 4 day dec stage and the 48 Hr decs to finalize thoughts Re any possible bet. As you say tenacity can be a need when matters are not going to plan but perhaps one of the hardest lessons to take on board in this game is that everything needs to be viewed in the longer term.

 

[mick]

I asked admin to set up this 'blog' really just as a place for me to pull in people who may be able to offer help in things I don't understand. I feel awkward clogging other peoples threads with irrelevant postings that could potentially add pages to them if everyone joins in.

retriever I have just been reading this Blogs OP and while i can appreciate your considerate thinking Re not clogging up other members threads you have not mentioned the help you seek via this one. ? I would suggest that as backers we all need help as we fight a war on four fronts.......... Against The Bookmakers : The other Punters : The Horses connections : And often against Ourselves.

Four areas which lend themselves to questions - opinions - the sharing of experiences - debate and confusion. Hopefully you may now get Clogged good and proper and be pleased about it.

 

[ARAZI91]

Thanks mick
That's interesting that you only focus on 5yo's - I guess that cut the work-load down. Obviously there's probably a statistical backing to doing so in the races you target and 5yo's profile the best with regards to their traits.

My main day-to-day routine now ( and going forwards ) is to only focus only on:-
Flat-AW / All-Aged-Handicaps / 3yo+ 4yo+ / 5f to 8.5f
I probably have you and markfinn ( UKBF common race ) for steering me in that direction......although I've always preferred sprint races....mainly looking for micro-draw bias.

The earlier I check the cards, the better for finding potential value and try to narrow a race down to three and back those in a Tote combination Exacta's. I then pick the best one for a Win or Each bet. Seems to be working well.

I would say to anyone reading this, however, that the trick is 'to keep on keeping on' with your MO......specially in the bad patches. If you work ( hard ) to find the edge then long-term you shouldn't lose.

Good luck this year with your punting.

Hi retriever - was not even aware you had started this blog - regarding the angle "micro-draw bias" you obviously need stall statistics to monitor and check - may i ask your "source" ?

 

[mick]

Hi retriever - was not even aware you had started this blog - regarding the angle "micro-draw bias" you obviously need stall statistics to monitor and check - may i ask your "source" ?

A good question Re an often confusing topic. I use the RI ones which enable incorporating additional filters. This often enables emulating the race being pondered and can tell a different tale to the all in stats.

 

[ARAZI91]

A good question Re an often confusing topic. I use the RI ones which enable incorporating additional filters. This often enables emulating the race being pondered and can tell a different tale to the all in stats.

View attachment 126759

The "all in" stats though become even more confusing and just plain wrong if "non-runners" are not accounted for. When a non runner is declared the stalls are "shuffled" inwards eg in a 12 runner race and the horse that was carded to be in stall 10 is a NR , then it becomes an 11 runner race and those originally carded stall 12 and 11 become 11 and 10 - even more confusing if > than 1 NR.....but the compounding effect over time and lot's of races give a whole set of false statistics if this is not accounted for - there are still plenty of commercial data suppliers that do not account for this ,especially if their source is Press Association Data (PA) who just leave the data feed as is with the original carded stall number.

 

[mick]

ARAZI91 I agree but as my screen shot shows the Remove non runner corruption button is engaged. I have found the going can make a big difference as can pondering more recent outcomes in comparison to the longer term ones. I often feel able to bet against what the press and market are calling a poor draw if less obvious workarounds or justifications can be gleaned.

There is also the fall back adage that ..........A good jockey can beat a bad draw.

 

[ARAZI91]

ARAZI91 I agree but as my screen shot shows the Remove non runner corruption button is engaged. I have found the going can make a big difference as can pondering more recent outcomes in comparison to the longer term ones. I often feel able to bet against what the press and market are calling a poor draw if less obvious workarounds or justifications can be gleaned.

There is also the fall back adage that ..........A good jockey can beat a bad draw.

Yeah its good for you that you have that facility to remove NR's, I do it by automated code as well within my own data as there is an easy fix - but my point is not about the nuances of the draw regarding recency, going or jockeys but that OTHER MEMBERS may not be aware that their own commercial software are giving them the wrong outputs.
Here's Ayr 6f Handicaps - 8 runners and upwards - 2011 to 2022 (185 races)
Left side data is with the original carded stall left intact (NR's not accounted for)
Right side is with the NR's accounted for
Basic maths will tell you that if your minimum Field Size is 8 then stalls 1 to 8 should have the same amount of runners!! the deltas on the far side show the differences in win % and winplace % - Ayr only run around an avg of 15 of these races a year (8+ runners) so imagine some of the AW tracks where in the same timespan the racecount could run into 4-500+ the errors would be even more compounded.



I know that Timeform and Proform account for this, but i also know of a few well known other commercial software vendor's who don't - one is quite well used within the forum.

 

[mick]

Beware of what you wish for because the poor draw stats topic has just bitten me in the bum. I have a possible bet for Wen and this mornings 48 hr decs show a negative draw. I will post below some of the notes i have made concerning this.

Wen 4th Kemp 8.0 : Got No Dollars @

A 7 fur 0-70 with 12 run. Dollars shows top off my ratings @ +1 and has the looks of one placed to win. His recent form 0-7 may have included some gaming because all of those runs where in the OR seventies which looks an ask too much, but the BHA have finally relented and dropped him to OR 69 which is still 2lbs above his highest winning mark but based on some of his placed form runs is def doable.

These double digit size fields appear to suit with all four previous wins in same and the profile suggests that his 49 day return should not prevent. Two of his wins have been at Kemp with the most recent coming over this CD Jan last year. 5lb claimer Luke Catton was shown as booked at the 4 day stage and his allowance takes the sting out of the gross 9-8. He was also on top for Dollars most recent win.

The animal has won an 8.0 pm winter race at Kemp so no concerns there and the stable appear in good nick with eight winners during Dec. As ever there are niggles involved with the main one being his 6 box which emulating via 12 run - Hcaps shows a worst of the lot 4% S/r but his previous CD win was when drawn 5-12 and his 16Mar22 CD run when drawn 6-12 resulted in him being done only half a len in a 0-80 so subject to price i may chance my arm.

 

[Chesham]

In the Lingfield 12.33 TF have the Draw Bias against low. Looking at the 4 past winners of the race. Drawn 4,2,9,1

 

[Chesham]

Winner of the above drawn 4

which makes the race and past draw 4,2,9,1 and 4 today

 

[retriever]

you have not mentioned the help you seek via this one.

Hi mick Thanks for your input. The help I seek? That was a while ago, and I think I have progressed a bit since that post, although we are always learning, aren't we!!

Hi retriever - was not even aware you had started this blog - regarding the angle "micro-draw bias" you obviously need stall statistics to monitor and check - may i ask your "source" ?

Hi ARAZI91 I am probably going to disappoint you here as what I do regarding the 'micro-draw' angle is very much 'hands-on' and race specific.
I wish I could develop data banks and statistics with computers and programming but I wouldn't know where to start. I have a fair understanding of spreadsheets and love trying to work formulas. I use OpenOffice but need to get Excel.

Regarding the draw I do it via HRB race by race. The bias ( if any ) comes down to stall positioning in relation to the bends over the distance. All weather tracks work better than the Flat as there's obviously more data.

As an example of what I look for lets take a race tomorrow :- 2.00 Chelmsford ( 9 runners )

I would first look at this System Builder category having put in the race parameters :- 'Position In Stalls'



This gives :-



Now you can see the bias here to the low numbers which is what you would expect at Chelmsford......LH anti-clockwise track...with the horses grabbing the rail. This just gives me a 'picture' to use along with other factors, obviously, Age, Weight, OR, H/g, Sex, etc. The odds market stays out of it until the end where I look for the best value - usually from my shortlist of three.

Now I know HRB doesn't adjust for non-runners and from the above we can see an anomaly with Stall 7. Looking further by highlighting it we see :-


This shows in part the shuffling due to non-runners. However it is still quite high in that area, so with a further look, I see that if a fancied runner is running from that area I know not to discount it too early - especially if it is able to break fast and get a front-running position.

Usually it's the case that the higher draw numbers will see more shuffling than the low numbers. Stall 1 will see none I would say. Where can it go?
If stall 2 is a non-runner they are not going to move them all up. It will just become a vacant hole that the race loader can dive into quickly.

All tracks are different and I know we are dealing with small sample sizes but over a certain threshold ( say, double the number of runners.....9 runners......minimum 18 races ) a small bias might be seen. Some tracks, for example, may have the stall positioned at a tangent to the first bend and those in the centre of the stalls have the shortest distance to the bend.

This is what I mean by 'micro-draw' and it's very much 'hands-on' and not easily converted to numbers and stats. They do sometimes move the stall positioning ( different tractor drivers....lol ) on some of the wider tracks which means an 'advantage' is negated. Just have to watch for it.
Goes without saying - replay watching is a must.

And just for interest the above 2.00 Chelmsford race I got down to these three. Probably do a combination Exacta and pick one for a win bet.




Incidentally, Bobby On The Beat, raced on Saturday, I put up in the HOD Saturday Super Heinz thread working to similar lines.
Got 6/1......SP 11/4 ARAZI91 can verify.
.

 

[retriever]

OMG mick It's taken the best part of an hour to do the above post and I see half a dozen posts above to digest!!
.

 

[mick]

OMG mick It's taken the best part of an hour to do the above post and I see half a dozen posts above to digest!!
.

Best report the culprits to Admin for Cluttering your thread.