• Hi Guest Just in case you were not aware I wanted to highlight that you can now get a free 7 day trial of Horseracebase here.
    We have a lot of members who are existing users of Horseracebase so help is always available if needed, as well as dedicated section of the fourm here.
    Best Wishes
    AR

My "Inform Racing" System - Mk II

Greetings.



As you know I also use IF (in fact one of the 17 systems that IAN offers was created by me and exchanged for the other 16). I use some of these systems and others that I create and share in the forum for this purpose. And I can say that all the systems have fallen noticeably to the point of making a marginal profit.
I calculate a drop in winners of between 8 and 9%.

We will have to see how things evolve now that the systems for Flat come into play.


Perhaps we should create a working group to investigate further.

On the other hand, on the systems and the benefits in one class and another.

Create a system that has only paid off since 2018 on Chase Class 4.

Another that had given benefits for AW in classes 4 and 6 has only given benefits this year for class 6

This is my reflection on this month. I hope things improve!
 
Nocturno44 said:
Greetings.



As you know I also use IF (in fact one of the 17 systems that IAN offers was created by me and exchanged for the other 16). I use some of these systems and others that I create and share in the forum for this purpose. And I can say that all the systems have fallen noticeably to the point of making a marginal profit.
I calculate a drop in winners of between 8 and 9%.

We will have to see how things evolve now that the systems for Flat come into play.


Perhaps we should create a working group to investigate further.

On the other hand, on the systems and the benefits in one class and another.

Create a system that has only paid off since 2018 on Chase Class 4.

Another that had given benefits for AW in classes 4 and 6 has only given benefits this year for class 6

This is my reflection on this month. I hope things improve!
Click to expand...
I'd be happy to try and chip in to helping make some systems or share any ideas J may have, not sure it will help but if you start it I will join in 👍

Good luck today MartinK MartinK
 
Yes it could be backfitting maybe a good angle to work from would be the trainers high spot periods and the amount of runners on a given day and maybe factor in certain courses which are good for a trainer or a preferences of the course type a horse has something like was mentioned similar in another thread i just read.

I think the elements need to be realistic ones and work accross the board more rather than juggling with minor factors to make things work just my ideas though.
 
Sigster said:
Why classes 4 and 6 historically and not class 5?
or classes 1-3 for that matter?
There may be valid reasons but surely if you’re just cherry picking certain areas without valid reason it is backfitting and would be unlikely to hold up going forward?
Click to expand...
Well, thanks to your reply, I reinvestigated the classes. Class 5 gave since 2018 losses in SP and 11 points in BSP (if I remove 2018 the thing improves and this year it has been positive).

Class 3 gives benefits in the 2018/2020 period (there were no races of this class in 2021)

Class 2 gave benefits in 2020 and this year, the previous ones (where there were more races) did not.

Class 1 did not pay any year.

I imagine that when looking for systems with 3 years in positive discard certain classes and probably have lost good profits this year (just when the AW ends)

In any case I will have it by 2022.

Greetings from Spain
 
I have to admit that I am also a bit confused.
I can see that there may be logical reasons why something might work for lower class races, but missing out one class does seem a bit odd.
Class 6 alone makes sense, so it could be that it is a good idea, and the results have now shown an evening out.
Best of luck with it.
 
Yes, it's extremely interesting why systems seem to fade with time, and, according to the data, have variable results in differing classes.
All hypotheses welcome. I have no idea myself. :)

It should be pointed out, perhaps, that Ian's systems have faced rigorous tests, checks and balances etc, but,
like it used to be said in the frenzied property boom in Thatcher's time:

"Past performance is no guarantee of future performance". Prices can go up and down.

I would also add - based on elementary stuff from A. Massey's stuff - after ten years or less, many races are contested by completely different animals.
Besides major changes in the participants ( horses, jockeys, trainers), times have moved on and there is always change.
Maybe every thing has its day?
Constants in life are few and far between. If they exist at all, they are often in the realm of abstract theory.

In reality, we, and our homes, and our transport generally decline. In our case, we blossom, bloom, fade away and die.
Ain't no golden rule that says systems won't do the same? Or, is there???:D:headbang:
I've been searching all my life and, in conclusion, I still don't really know.

All the very best!
 
Nocturno44 said:
... all the systems have fallen noticeably to the point of making a marginal profit. I calculate a drop in winners of between 8 and 9%.
Click to expand...
Until a week ago, my systems would collectively throw up about 4 selections a day on average. Now it's half that -- about 2 a day. I think it's simply because we're approaching the flat season, and the jumps are winding down: poor quality racing that's a bad betting medium.
 
Sandhog said:
... after ten years or less, many races are contested by completely different animals. Besides major changes in the participants ( horses, jockeys, trainers), times have moved on and there is always change.
Click to expand...
Yes, there's always change, but Ian's speed figures simply record speeds which have been achieved by every horse running. If someone devises a system based on Ian's ratings, they're on firm ground so long as the devised system relies on sensible factors. For instance, if a system is based on whether a horse did well at a given course and at a particular distance, it won't go far wrong if underpinned by good speed figures.
 
Sandhog said:
Yes, it's extremely interesting why systems seem to fade with time, and, according to the data, have variable results in differing classes.
All hypotheses welcome. I have no idea myself. :)

It should be pointed out, perhaps, that Ian's systems have faced rigorous tests, checks and balances etc, but,
like it used to be said in the frenzied property boom in Thatcher's time:

"Past performance is no guarantee of future performance". Prices can go up and down.

I would also add - based on elementary stuff from A. Massey's stuff - after ten years or less, many races are contested by completely different animals.
Besides major changes in the participants ( horses, jockeys, trainers), times have moved on and there is always change.
Maybe every thing has its day?
Constants in life are few and far between. If they exist at all, they are often in the realm of abstract theory.

In reality, we, and our homes, and our transport generally decline. In our case, we blossom, bloom, fade away and die.
Ain't no golden rule that says systems won't do the same? Or, is there???:D:headbang:
I've been searching all my life and, in conclusion, I still don't really know.

All the very best!
Click to expand...

Personally I have several systems that have shown regular profits over many years. I also started with the Massey site, and once I got the hang of that I sort of developed my own way of using the ability of these sites to save me ages trawling through past results in order to predict the future.
It may sound daft, but the way I approach things is to start with an idea and only then see if it works - that way I can honestly say that none of my systems are backfitted for the simple reason that I don't actually check the past results until I have formulated the idea.
Most of my ideas end up in the bin, but at least the way I work means that I have some confidence in the ones that I do end up with!
 
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