tony spencer
Filly
This is a detailed over view of the Lincoln
My detailed View of the Lincoln
- Thread starter tony spencer
- Start date
Having backed LA BOTTE i have taken some interest in the draw and despite what youe AI predicts tony my thinking was there is every chance they'll tack across to the stands side again like they did last year, GOODWINSON drawn in 3 but came through towards nearside.
Also LA BOTTE has been held up at the back in his last two races and spencer is a creature of bad habits, moderate winds suggests that shouldn't be much of a factor but i do worry about the pace or possible lack of.
ETERNAL FORCE has to be respected coming from the haggas yard and was clearly on the improve when completing the hattrick.
Also LA BOTTE has been held up at the back in his last two races and spencer is a creature of bad habits, moderate winds suggests that shouldn't be much of a factor but i do worry about the pace or possible lack of.
ETERNAL FORCE has to be respected coming from the haggas yard and was clearly on the improve when completing the hattrick.
Sullybomb
Filly
Trends
Age – 9 of the last 11 winners were aged 4 or 5Price – 1 of the 11 winners were favourites, 3/11 winners were in the top 3 in the betting, 7/11 winners were priced 12/1 or bigger
Weight – 9 of the last 11 winners carried between 8st 12lbs and 9st 4lbs
Last Run – 4/11 winners won on their last run before the Lincoln Handicap, 9/11 winners had their last run 135 or more days ago
Previous Course Form – 4/11 winners had at least 1 previous run at Doncaster, 2/11 winners had at least 1 previous win at Doncaster
Previous Distance Form – 10/11 winners had at least 2 previous runs over 8 furlongs, 9/11 winners had at least 1 previous win over 8 furlongs
Previous Flat Form – 10/11 winners had at least 5 previous flat runs, 9/11 winners had at least 3 previous flat wins
Rating – 9/11 winners had a rating of between 94 and 102
Group Wins – 0/11 winners had at least 1 win in a group 1-3 race
Season Form – 3/11 winners had at least 1 run that season, 0/11 winners had at least 1 win that season
Great guide
T
tony spencer
of course there are different types of Lincoln winners , but I like a certain profile to check suitability for the classier type winner that has been laid out and is a short price.
That Eternal Force captures the profile well.
cant remember the last winner that came off the all weather so even though La Botte ran like a Skelton handicapper getting ready for Cheltenham recently I prefer the other favoirite.
of course there are different types of Lincoln winners , but I like a certain profile to check suitability for the classier type winner that has been laid out and is a short price.
That Eternal Force captures the profile well.
cant remember the last winner that came off the all weather so even though La Botte ran like a Skelton handicapper getting ready for Cheltenham recently I prefer the other favoirite.
thanksChesham amazing strike rate
my criteria would be
age =4
career runs <8
OR >96
odds <10
days since run >120
career wins 2 or 3
im guessing it would pick up the fancied winners I mentioned on the other thread and also Ballet Concerto who missed out narrowly from running and won the consolation Spring Mile, but maybe plenty of losers , I don’t know, no longer subscribe to HRB so no idea
Yes definitely a horse called Ocean Tempest won after running in Meydan want to say 9 or 10 years ago, might be a couple more.
I’m very surprised that the AW hasn’t been used for recent winners, nowadays normal handicaps I thinks they underrate the AW form especially the maiden and novice races, get some well handicapped winners from the AW races in early season handicaps, helps that Southwell form is now transferable since they got rid of the sand. I think that course is a good source now.
Looks like trainers have the Lincoln set from previous season and target the race from there.
The only track I don’t like transferring now is Lingfield the rest can be pretty solid.
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tony spencer
Filly
Yes dont let me put you off. La Botte : shaped with considerable promise having found himself with plenty to do following an awkward start. Off since suffering a narrow defeat in the Britannia, he was eating up the ground late on and could take a big step forward in the Lincoln, for which he's now a general 5-1 chance. He's only raced on a sound surface on turf.
Sullybomb , Very often members of this forum point to trends like the ones you list and appear happy enough to accept the numbers and assume they have meaning, maybe they do but this game takes a lot of hard work and personally some of these trends don't work for me.Let's just rely on the first one AGE ?.....9 of the last 11 winners were aged 4 or 5 ?
So is this a very solid "trend" or simply reflecting the average age of a class 2 handicap so early in the season.
As with any handicap we're probably looking for a horse " well in " and i would have thought the chances are a 4yr old is more likely to have improvement in him/her than a 5yr old and so on with 6 & 7yr olds
The logic here then is what might have been a decent enough 3yr old last season becomes that unexposed 4yr old that might very well have pounds in hand, you can probably extend that to 5yr olds, again this being very early in the turf season.
It might then follow that the field for the average lincoln has a tendency to attract the 4yr olds and similar for the 5yr olds etc ?
This doesn't negate the trend by itself but maybe it dilutes the apparant strength behind the numbers, if most of the field fit into that bracket of 4-7 we surely need to balance that out when pointing to the 9 from 11 ?
A quick glance at today's field and i think i've counted 19 out of the 22 that fit into the 4-7 age bracket today, you will be pleased to know that i haven't looked at the other trends.
ps....This chap BEN AITKEN likes these trends if anyone interested, i tend not to bother.
Analysis & Tips for Doncaster Lincoln Day | Saturday 28th March - The Racing Podblast
Ben Aitken - www.narrowingthefield.co.uk - and Tony McCormick - talkSPORT & talkSPORT 2 - head to the opening day of the 2026 Flat season this weekend, with Doncaster and The Lincoln Handicap the main focus...Saturday (28th March)⭕ 1.50 D...
Sullybomb
Filly
T tacker I think it's just a different way people like to narrow the field, not saying it's right or wrong but, they're trends for a reason meaning they happen again and again. You can interpret them the same way others do stats, make them tell you whatever you want, 10 of the last 10 winners had 4 legs. As you mentioned plenty of people do use the trends, it's probably a good starting point to discount some of the field IMO.
Let's just rely on the first one AGE ?.....9 of the last 11 winners were aged 4 or 5 ?
So is this a very solid "trend" or simply reflecting the average age of a class 2 handicap so early in the season.
As with any handicap we're probably looking for a horse " well in " and i would have thought the chances are a 4yr old is more likely to have improvement in him/her than a 5yr old and so on with 6 & 7yr olds
The logic here then is what might have been a decent enough 3yr old last season becomes that unexposed 4yr old that might very well have pounds in hand, you can probably extend that to 5yr olds, again this being very early in the turf season.
It might then follow that the field for the average lincoln has a tendency to attract the 4yr olds and similar for the 5yr olds etc ?
This doesn't negate the trend by itself but maybe it dilutes the apparant strength behind the numbers, if most of the field fit into that bracket of 4-7 we surely need to balance that out when pointing to the 9 from 11 ?
A quick glance at today's field and i think i've counted 19 out of the 22 that fit into the 4-7 age bracket today, you will be pleased to know that i haven't looked at the other trends.
ps....This chap BEN AITKEN likes these trends if anyone interested, i tend not to bother.
Analysis & Tips for Doncaster Lincoln Day | Saturday 28th March - The Racing Podblast
Ben Aitken - www.narrowingthefield.co.uk - and Tony McCormick - talkSPORT & talkSPORT 2 - head to the opening day of the 2026 Flat season this weekend, with Doncaster and The Lincoln Handicap the main focus...Saturday (28th March)⭕ 1.50 D...www.buzzsprout.com
A quick narrowing of the field using 3 of the trends.
4 & 5yo only
8st 12lbs - 9st 4lbs carried
LTO >=135 days
Cheers
doomster
Dam
Contradicting myself as Anno Domini has run this season, over in Meydan, but the trainer sends few for this race ( 2/4) and one did have a run in the same year previously.
Both winners were put away for the race, but AD was out of the picture on his most recent run and the horse looks to want some cut and pace.
Buick obviously tied up for World Cup day, so not reading a negative into the the 7lb claimer booking.
His C&D run in the Futurity certainly gives e hope and looks likely to drift above 20.
My gut tells me a single figure draw is needed, so stall 18 is a concern for me, but the Silver mile will be a race to watch.
Both winners were put away for the race, but AD was out of the picture on his most recent run and the horse looks to want some cut and pace.
Buick obviously tied up for World Cup day, so not reading a negative into the the 7lb claimer booking.
His C&D run in the Futurity certainly gives e hope and looks likely to drift above 20.
My gut tells me a single figure draw is needed, so stall 18 is a concern for me, but the Silver mile will be a race to watch.
Chesham
Sire
My Trend for this race performed really poorly in the last 2 runnings. Nothing is bullet proof when it comes to Trends , The less filters the better though.
This years qualifier does show up on a different analysis too, but Haggas has two runners today and even he my not know which one is the best until after the race is over. I think it was RC once said. That you need a horse that is 10Lb well in on Official RTings to account for luck in running .
Since we already ran the OR-based Bowers calculation in the previous step, we successfully narrowed this chaotic 20-runner field down to a razor-sharp 10-horse shortlist.
Let's get straight into mapping the tactics and crunching the numbers for our retained runners.
In massive fields like the Lincoln, a lack of pace is a tactical disaster for horses buried in the pack. It turns a 1-mile cavalry charge into a messy, traffic-filled sprint for home. However, it creates a massive opportunity for anyone willing to take the race by the scruff of the neck.
Looking at the underlying signals, only one of our retained runners has shown a consistent, successful willingness to lead:
Eternal Force .
Despite being mapped broadly as a Mid-Division (MD) runner, his in-running comments tell the real story. In two of his last three starts, he "made all" or "took charge 0.25L in the early stages" and subsequently won both. Because the rest of the field wants to sit prominently or drop in behind, Eternal Force is our Lone Speed Anomaly. He is highly likely to get a free pass on the lead, allowing Tom Marquand to dictate the fractions and get first run on the closers.
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Eternal Force (5/1) is the undisputed tactical play. He survived the Bowers cull, boasts three consecutive 100% PR% victories, and is the absolute Lone Speed Anomaly in a paceless 20-runner field. He will get an uncontested lead and dictate the Lincoln on his own terms.
Behind him, La Botte (7/2 Fav) has the highest Bowers Rating and a massive 117.8 peak CCR, proving he is a Group horse in a handicap. If Jamie Spencer can navigate the inevitable traffic jam caused by the slow pace, he is the biggest threat.
For deep value, Galeron (22/1) has the elite consistency (90%, 75%, 82% PR%) and a peak 114.5 CCR to blow past tiring horses if the pace accidentally gets hot.
This years qualifier does show up on a different analysis too, but Haggas has two runners today and even he my not know which one is the best until after the race is over. I think it was RC once said. That you need a horse that is 10Lb well in on Official RTings to account for luck in running .
Since we already ran the OR-based Bowers calculation in the previous step, we successfully narrowed this chaotic 20-runner field down to a razor-sharp 10-horse shortlist.
Let's get straight into mapping the tactics and crunching the numbers for our retained runners.
Step 2: Mapping the Front End
The 'Comment Shaper' Race Shape Summary paints a fascinating picture for a 20-runner Heritage Handicap. We have 0 Front Runners mapped and an Early Shape Pressure of just 2.80 (Moderate Shape).In massive fields like the Lincoln, a lack of pace is a tactical disaster for horses buried in the pack. It turns a 1-mile cavalry charge into a messy, traffic-filled sprint for home. However, it creates a massive opportunity for anyone willing to take the race by the scruff of the neck.
Looking at the underlying signals, only one of our retained runners has shown a consistent, successful willingness to lead:
Eternal Force .Despite being mapped broadly as a Mid-Division (MD) runner, his in-running comments tell the real story. In two of his last three starts, he "made all" or "took charge 0.25L in the early stages" and subsequently won both. Because the rest of the field wants to sit prominently or drop in behind, Eternal Force is our Lone Speed Anomaly. He is highly likely to get a free pass on the lead, allowing Tom Marquand to dictate the fractions and get first run on the closers.
Step 3: The Retained Runners Summary Chart
Here is the fully locked-in tactical matrix for our 10 retained contenders. It includes the OR-based Bowers Rating, the Custom Class Rating (CCR), the Capped Performance Rating (PR%), Timeform metrics (TFR/Tfig), RaceIQ signals, and historical comment interpretations.| Horse | Bowers Rtg | PR% (Last 3) | CCR (Last 3: Most Recent) | TFR | Tfig | RaceIQ Data / Integrated Comments (Most Recent First) |
| La Botte | 3.5 | 90%, 96%, 60% | 117.8, 94.5, 92.2 | 113, 113, 99 | 110, 87, 99 | RaceIQ: Elite closing sectionals. 1. Heavily restrained... headway out extremely wide... closing all the time. 2. Unlucky loser... interference entering final 1f halted momentum. 3. Raced wide, tracked pace, challenged 2f out, no extra. |
| Eternal Force | 13.0 | 100%, 100%, 100% | 111.0, 92.0, 81.0 | 108, 99, 76 | 101, 84, 19 | RaceIQ: Sustained high top speed. 1. Mid-field, headway... quickened to lead final 1f, won readily. 2. Headway under 2f out, led over 1f out... found extra. 3. Made all... asserted final 1f under hands-and-heels ride. |
| Botanical (IRE) | 16.0 | 35%, 20%, 50% | 111.2, 101.6, 102.4 | 106, 107, 108 | 107, 101, 81 | RaceIQ: High early exertion rates. 1. Tracked pace, led briefly over 2f out, weakened entering final 1f. 2. Tracked pace, effort under 3f out, hung left... faded. 3. Led first 3f, ridden out wide 2f out, no extra last ½f. |
| Shout (IRE) | 17.0 | 85%, 100%, 50% | 102.2, 103.0, 82.6 | 107, 108, 94 | 87, 107, 76 | RaceIQ: Elite late progression. 1. Slowly into stride... driven under 2f out, kept on. 2. Smooth headway over 2f out, produced to lead over 1f out, ridden out. 3. Dropped out, shaken up out wide... steady progress. |
| Rogue Diplomat (IRE) | 21.0 | 100%, 100%, 100% | 104.0, 96.0, 95.0 | 103, 103, 96 | 71, 96, 86 | RaceIQ: 1st for Average Stride Length. 1. Mid-field, headway 2f out, led final 1f, kept on, just held on. 2. Towards rear, pushed along and headway over 2f out... lead closing stages. 3. Waited with, quickened to lead under 2f out... ridden out. |
| Anno Domini | 22.0 | 30%, 20%, 60% | 99.7, 95.9, 112.8 | 102, 100, 103 | -, -, 79 | RaceIQ: Solid finishing speed. 1. Soon steadied, effort out wide entering straight, never nearer. 2. Slowly into stride, waited with, headway on inner over 1f out. 3. Held up... headway over 1f out, ran on, nearest at the finish. |
| Valvano (IRE) | 28.0 | 75%, 70%, 0% | 115.7, 117.1, -20.0 | 104, 105, - | 93, 57, - | RaceIQ: Vulnerable to traffic. 1. Squeeze through a tight gap and made rapid headway... headed. 2. Raced freely, going well when denied a run over 1f out... ran on. 3. Forced pace, headed over 3f out, stopped quickly. |
| Urban Lion | 31.0 | 55%, 20%, 75% | 83.8, 95.1, 119.7 | 94, 96, 108 | 83, 85, 94 | RaceIQ: Fades under late pressure. 1. Handy, shuffled back soon after halfway... stayed on one pace. 2. Prominent, led briefly 2f out, no extra final 1f. 3. Led, shaken up around 2f out, headed over 1f out, stuck to task. |
| Galeron (IRE) | 31.0 | 90%, 75%, 82% | 114.5, 93.6, 99.3 | 104, 97, 101 | 92, 87, 96 | RaceIQ: Consistent closing sectionals. 1. Reared leaving stalls... had to wait for gap 2f out... finished well. 2. Raced off the pace... headway out wide over 1f out, responded well. 3. Smooth headway over 2f out, every chance under 2f out, left behind. |
| Orandi (FR) | 32.0 | 10%, 5%, 65% | 59.2, 60.5, 84.8 | 57, 41, 96 | 44, 18, 76 | RaceIQ: Dropping performance metrics. 1. Raced off the pace, still plenty to do under 2f out, never better than mid-field. 2. Close up, lost place before halfway, shuffled back towards rear. 3. Broke well, settled in touch, ridden 2f out, one paced. |
The Final Tactical Verdict
The mathematics and the pace map have aligned perfectly here. Eternal Force (5/1) is the undisputed tactical play. He survived the Bowers cull, boasts three consecutive 100% PR% victories, and is the absolute Lone Speed Anomaly in a paceless 20-runner field. He will get an uncontested lead and dictate the Lincoln on his own terms.Behind him, La Botte (7/2 Fav) has the highest Bowers Rating and a massive 117.8 peak CCR, proving he is a Group horse in a handicap. If Jamie Spencer can navigate the inevitable traffic jam caused by the slow pace, he is the biggest threat.
For deep value, Galeron (22/1) has the elite consistency (90%, 75%, 82% PR%) and a peak 114.5 CCR to blow past tiring horses if the pace accidentally gets hot.
Sullybomb
Filly
FWIW T tacker , my three against the field are:Yes i very much agree
My intention wasn't just to knock trends per se but to point out that when you scrutinise the numbers further they tend not to look that strong imo.
Rogue Diplomat (8f a slight doubt, but loves the track)
Valvano (Addition of headgear may bring about improvement)
Galeron (Stays well, likes the track and very capable 5lb claimer aboard)
Cheers
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Jackform
Mare
I've left this to Gordon Hill 
, as was.
9. 3* Eternal Force
2. 5* La Botte
12. 4* Rogue Diplomat
10. 2* Valvano
7. 1* Urban Lion
1. 3* Botanical
At The Races advice in comparison.
Harry Eustace hasn't hidden his confidence in LA BOTTE, with the Newmarket handler stating earlier in the week this would probably be the last time he is seen in handicap company before aiming higher. A desperately unlucky loser in the Britannia at Royal Ascot, he made a pleasing reintroduction when fourth in the Lincoln Trial at Wolverhampton and that outing should bring him on nicely. Eternal Force represents a yard that has won this contest five times, most notably with Addeybb in 2018 and last year with Godwinson, and he arrives in search of a four-timer after impressing at Haydock on his final appearance last term. Rogue Diplomat ended last season winning four on the bounce, including a brace of 7f handicaps here in the autumn, and he enters calculations along with Botanical, who makes his first start for Karl Burke, and Anno Domini, with Charlie Appleby opting to utilise Toby Moore's 7lb claim.
Top Tip: La Botte (2)
Watch out for: Eternal Force (9
Those drawn low have won three of the last four runnings of this prestigious handicap. The two who stand out are La Botte and ETERNAL FORCE, with just a slight preference for the latter who was turned inside out by a gelding operaion last season, winning his last three starts to round out the year, including when quite impressive fashion at Haydock latest. He returns off an 8lb higher mark but is likely to have improved from three to four and his trainer, who won the race last season, must have his eye on something better than handicaps for him down the road. La Botte really caught the eye on his return at Wolverhampton and probably should have won last season's Britannia. He could outclass these as he looks a Group performer in the making but there always a chance Jamie Spencer will over complicate things. Anno Domini is interesting also for a yard that won this in 2016 and 2019, with him having a good 7lb rider aboard on this return to Britain, while Valvano has long shaped as though there's a big handicap in him and he's unexposed at this trip - he's done most of his racing over 10-12f. He also gets a new headgear combination.
, as was.9. 3* Eternal Force
2. 5* La Botte
12. 4* Rogue Diplomat
10. 2* Valvano
7. 1* Urban Lion
1. 3* Botanical
At The Races advice in comparison.
Harry Eustace hasn't hidden his confidence in LA BOTTE, with the Newmarket handler stating earlier in the week this would probably be the last time he is seen in handicap company before aiming higher. A desperately unlucky loser in the Britannia at Royal Ascot, he made a pleasing reintroduction when fourth in the Lincoln Trial at Wolverhampton and that outing should bring him on nicely. Eternal Force represents a yard that has won this contest five times, most notably with Addeybb in 2018 and last year with Godwinson, and he arrives in search of a four-timer after impressing at Haydock on his final appearance last term. Rogue Diplomat ended last season winning four on the bounce, including a brace of 7f handicaps here in the autumn, and he enters calculations along with Botanical, who makes his first start for Karl Burke, and Anno Domini, with Charlie Appleby opting to utilise Toby Moore's 7lb claim.
Top Tip: La Botte (2)
Watch out for: Eternal Force (9
Those drawn low have won three of the last four runnings of this prestigious handicap. The two who stand out are La Botte and ETERNAL FORCE, with just a slight preference for the latter who was turned inside out by a gelding operaion last season, winning his last three starts to round out the year, including when quite impressive fashion at Haydock latest. He returns off an 8lb higher mark but is likely to have improved from three to four and his trainer, who won the race last season, must have his eye on something better than handicaps for him down the road. La Botte really caught the eye on his return at Wolverhampton and probably should have won last season's Britannia. He could outclass these as he looks a Group performer in the making but there always a chance Jamie Spencer will over complicate things. Anno Domini is interesting also for a yard that won this in 2016 and 2019, with him having a good 7lb rider aboard on this return to Britain, while Valvano has long shaped as though there's a big handicap in him and he's unexposed at this trip - he's done most of his racing over 10-12f. He also gets a new headgear combination.
- Eternal Force (9)
- La Botte (2)
- Anno Domini (6)
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