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My AW Bets

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Hi @Sean Re your Newc 7.0 i backed Chuzzlewit @ 12/1 yesterday so best of for both of us. :)

Thur 6th Newc 7.0 : Chuzzlewit @ 12/1

An 8 fur 0-80 class 4 with 8 run. Chuzz is not a winsome animal at an all in 2-23 but over this CD he is 1-3 with the win obtained at an evening meeting close to this date last year. That was in a higher 0-90 grade and off a 12lbs higher mark than the OR 74 he has now so a repeat of this would def make him the winner here. His two losing CD runs where in class 1 and 2 contests.

He has never won a Hcap on turf and is 0-10 in same. His AW Hcap win came in blinkers which have been left off for his two most recent runs but are back on here. Imo many of those losing outings where not placed to win jobs and i am hoping this may account in part for the poor S/r as opposed to the 5yo being unreliable or inconsistent by choice.

The stable appear in decent form ( 5-19 during Feb ) and longer term Newc is the riders most productive track. Chuzz is running off a 42 day break with no real evidence to support but if he is allowed to contest " brakes off " then i would not anticipate this preventing an overdue third win. B365 have just opened @ 12/1 and this suits.
 
@Sean i like your stats regarding Crouch/Owen they have a 40% win record when teamed up but they are best when the horse is fancied, so my own personal caveat would be “when in the top 3 betting” 👍🏿 It should be a decent e/w shout now showing at 9’s
 
Larry said:
Just had some 12's with WilHill but mick mick 's selection is shortening rapidly
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I got 9s as posted , think it'll shorten before the off , maybe .. never let drifts put me off though tbh , always think that the horse doesnt know what price it is , it'll run its race and we take our chances. My only concern is its never run at Newcastle before but has ran well at other all weather tracks so hopefully it'll be okay

Yeah i see mick mick has shortened , best i can see now is 11/2 .. think all the lurkers are on as well lol
 
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Whilst I agree with you @Sean "a horse doesn't know if it's drifting" usually connections do know so a horse drifting for a gambling stable is completely different to a horse drifting for a different stable, I don't know if James Owen runs a gambling stable or not
 
Sean said:
Thursday 6th March

6.30 Newcastle - Aurora Majesty 9/4 :handgestures-thumbup: 1st (won nicely and beat the odds which finished up at 1/2)
7.00 Newcastle - Overnight Oats EW 9/1 Unplaced
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Friday 7th March

5.45 Newcastle - Darlo Pride 4/1
6.45 Newcastle - Topteam EW 8/1
8.15 Newcastle - Tasever 9/2 / Kings School 4/1
 
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@Sean regarding the horse doesn't know it's drifting, tonight in the 6.45 at Newcastle I'm liking Nordic Norm alot, sorry opposing your Topteam, the horse is Karl Burke trained a notorious yard in more ways than 1 & at the moment it's drifting but i'm hoping the yard got fancy prices last night & are now laying at short prices only to go in again just before the off
 
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