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Most important factor when picking a horse

A

Amorga81

Yearling
Hi everyone, I am new to the forum and have loved reading a lot of the posts.

I have loved horse racing for over 20 years now but have always struggled to read the form and have often been confused where to start.

So I thought I would start a thread to see what people thought the most important factor (eg going, trainer, jockey, won LTO....) was when picking a horse

This would be a great help for me
 
Welcome A Amorga81, you'll find a lot of interesting stuff on this site and it gets better as you progress to the inner sanctum and eventually the blog.

I'd say from what I have learnt on this forum from experts like mlmrob mlmrob and Chesham Chesham that the OR is most important closely followed by the going.

I hope you enjoy your time here and the best way to do that is contribute to threads or maybe start your own.

Good luck tomorrow
 
Hi A Amorga81 I am new here but I shall contribute.
A small contribution from myself would be that
What I try is. I find an angle/reason to go with a selection
That may be depending on how lazy I am at that time. I would look at previous race history
Maybe I will go back 3,4 or 5 races even more until I find that angle.
*Returning to the same track of a decent effort after a few runs down field.
*if it’s a small field of upto 7 or 8 runners and I’m not feeling lazy I will go off race times.
I’m looking for something that sticks out time wise and looks a decent price.
When I say sticks out I mean if it’s finished 5th of 8 etc yet only beaten a couple of lengths I will then look at the winning time and compare the weight difference. I usually go 1lb per sec. I try to predict then the time capable.
Simple strategy and there are stats you could probably get with a click to give you all that info but I like to try and work it out myself.
Nothing exciting.
Really depends on the way I feel as to how I will go about finding an angle.
*Then again when I’m looking at a race card and I see what I call top light weight strong jockeys booked at the foot of the handicap. Likes of Franny Norton & Jimmy Quinn .. not so much Quinny these days but he is still a good one. I take a look at that runner straight away.
* Rambling on...realising that I have endless ways of selecting. Having a fav Trainer is that a good thing? You stick with them sometimes overlooking others.
* gambling yards / owners, very early market moves, sometimes though they pull off a nice gamble and then for a few days their runners are market movers without reason. Don’t get drawn in.
Stop rambling now sorry
Good luck anyway..
 
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Hi A Amorga81

After many years of flailing around and trying and testing so many of my ideas that briefly flattered in performance i have settled on what may be best described as trainer intentions -- why are they running the horse in this race? is it being placed to win today or is another race in mind?

But perhaps the best advice i could give is to subscribe to the amazing Horseracebase (often referred on here as HRB). This program is an almost bottomless pit of information and potential and although perhaps intimidating at first, with perseverance it can help you find ideas and angles outside the standard bookies punter and thereby be profitable.
 
I can give a one word answer to the OP question "Balance". These days no one needs to look to hard to find dozens of reasons why horses win and lose races and although you might prioritize some they still need to be correctly balanced in order to get the best from them. Many years ago i laid out my own template which is straight forward and i still use it now..........Class : Weight : Fitness : Dist : Course : Going.

The problem being that each of those six elements are standalone complex topics and they have to be balanced within themselves prior to the same being attempted with each other. Ticking boxes will not cut it.
 
Heavy ground at hamilton today in the 2.55 we have a nursery where in my opinion you need to look for something that might have proven form on the ground and the other factors like dist, course and even OR might serve to compliment that fact, breeding may also be part of the thinking but never certain. MAKYON is the only one to meet the criteria imo and is a worthy fav, GOOD NIGHT MR TOM handles soft and gets 9lb so you wouldn't want to rule out but i just wonder if some of the others would all be running if this wasn't a final worth a few bob including place money (i presume)
Conclusion then is when the ground is so bad it dominates the approach to all other variables or at least that's my thinking.
 
Obtaining a market edge is more difficult these days because imo punters on balance are far wiser than even 10yrs ago, but i still find one of the best edges has been around forever and that is soft ground. The best way to gain the edge from it these days is to predict it ahead of the bookmakers odds compilers and the market in general.

Needs must i have become a weather Fc form reader, Something which can prove as frustrating as horse form but well worth the effort when you get it right because it can result in obtaining some excellent value. But as ever there are no easy finds or solutions and there are plenty of occasions when although a horse has already won on soft it can still be viewed as a negative to chance. You need to fit the ground to the horse not the other way round.
 
Welcome Amorga81,

I look at everything.
Past form, age, weight, jockey, sire, track preference, jockey who gets on particularly well and wins often on a certain horse..... etc.
I also look to see if the stable is firing or not at the moment.

But ever since I have concentrated more on the ground conditions I have seen my winnings increase.

Happy Punting to you all.
 
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Amorga81 said:
Hi everyone, I am new to the forum and have loved reading a lot of the posts.

I have loved horse racing for over 20 years now but have always struggled to read the form and have often been confused where to start.

So I thought I would start a thread to see what people thought the most important factor (eg going, trainer, jockey, won LTO....) was when picking a horse

This would be a great help for me
Click to expand...
Hi A Amorga81 I am new to horse racing and trying to find my way around this forum and was glad to see this thread by you. Very useful advice from the contriutors in this thread.
 
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