• Hi Guest Just in case you were not aware I wanted to highlight that you can now get a free 7 day trial of Horseracebase here.
    We have a lot of members who are existing users of Horseracebase so help is always available if needed, as well as dedicated section of the fourm here.
    Best Wishes
    AR

Median price. Is it a good way of culling the runners ? Feel free to give constructive criticism

The prices were taken between 1pm and 1.30pm

15:20 Yarmouth
5f (5f42y) Winning Experience With Moulton Racing Handicap (Class 5) (4yo+ 0-75)
No.HorsePricePass/Fail
1​
Existent
4.3​
4.5​
0.2​
Pass
2​
Neyva's Angel
3​
4.5​
1.5​
Pass
3​
Al Barez
4.5​
4.5​
0​
Pass
4​
Travel Agent
9​
4.5​
-4.5​
Fail
5​
Thunder Star
4.5​
4.5​
0​
Pass
Median 4.5

15:53 Yarmouth
QuinnBet Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap (Class 6) (4yo+ 0-55)
No.HorseSPMedianDifference
1​
Court Of Session
4​
9​
5​
Pass
2​
Mighty Ruler
12​
9​
-3​
Fail
3​
Chasing Gold
9​
9​
0​
Pass
4​
Prefer The Sister
3.5​
9​
5.5​
Pass
5​
Walking On Clouds
5​
9​
4​
Pass
6​
Top Star
23​
9​
-14​
Fail
7​
Coolagh Magic
12​
9​
-3​
Fail
8​
Mr Phillips
5.5​
9​
3.5​
Pass
9​
Tilsworth Turf
26​
9​
-17​
Fail
Overall Median Price: 9.0
16:28 Yarmouth
QuinnBet Handicap (GBBPlus Race) (Class 4)
No.HorseSPMedianDifference
2​
Patrol
4.3​
5.4​
1.1​
Pass
3​
Moonrunner
3.8​
5.4​
1.6​
Pass
4​
Baltic
15​
5.4​
-9.6​
Fail
5​
High Point
8.5​
5.4​
-3.1​
Fail
6​
First Officer
6.5​
5.4​
-1.1​
Fail
7​
Yokohama
2.6​
5.4​
2.8​
Pass
Overall Median Price: 5.4
17:03 Yarmouth
Download The QuinnBet App Classified Stakes (Class 6)
No.HorseSPMedianDifference
1​
Dors Delight
51​
8​
-36.5​
Fail
3​
Sweetstevie
51​
8​
-36.5​
Fail
5​
Wingstar
21​
8​
-6.5​
Fail
6​
Wrist Art
3.5​
8​
11​
Pass
8​
Churchill's Spirit
8​
8​
6.5​
Pass
9​
Rockafeller Skank
1.8​
8​
12.7​
Pass
10​
Sapphire Dream
6​
8​
8.5​
Pass
17:35 Yarmouth
quinnbet.com Handicap (Class 6)
No.HorseSPMedianDifference
1​
Bennyworth
12​
12.5​
0.5​
Pass
2​
Salamis Bay
23​
12.5​
-10.5​
Fail
3​
Picaro
13​
12.5​
-0.5​
Fail
4​
Darkest Red
2.5​
12.5​
10​
Pass
5​
Tenison
4.5​
12.5​
8​
Pass
6​
Premier Cru
19​
12.5​
-6.5​
Fail
8​
Queen Of Astolat
4​
12.5​
8.5​
Pass
9​
Cospicua
13​
12.5​
-0.5​
Fail
Overall Median Price: 12.5
 
Decimal odds <= number of runners works for me, Paul Brown Paul Brown, when the Betfair markets is at or around 102%.

Tip: if you log into Betfair, you will almost always get a lower SP% than the 'logged out' one and well before the race. Alternatively, you could normalise your market source to 100%.

Regards
 
Decimal odds <= number of runners works for me, Paul Brown Paul Brown, when the Betfair markets is at or around 102%.

Tip: if you log into Betfair, you will almost always get a lower SP% than the 'logged out' one and well before the race. Alternatively, you could normalise your market source to 100%.

Regards
Ive got some spare time today and thought I would develop my thoughts :) Im going to extend what I have for the moment and adjust the market near the off. I also will be adding more pass and fail bits to my day off rantings
 
3.20 Y
No.HorseSPMedianDifferenceStatus"2nd Test3Rd Test4th Test5th Test
1​
Existent
5.4​
5.4​
0​
FailPassPassPassPass
2​
Neyva's Angel
2.86​
5.4​
2.54​
PassFailPassPassFail
3​
Al Barez
5.6​
5.4​
-0.2​
FailPassPassPassPass
4​
Travel Agent
16.5​
5.4​
-11.1​
FailFailFailFailFail
5​
Thunder Star
4.6​
5.4​
0.8​
PassPassPassPassPass
5.4​
 
Aftertimed
15:42 Nottingham
Wildwest Beer Festival 4th July Handicap (Class 4)
No.HorseSPMedianDifferenceStatusComCom
1​
Miletus
6.5​
7​
1​
PassPassPass
2​
One Night Thunder
5​
7​
2​
PassPassPass
3​
San Juanito
41​
7​
-44​
FailFailFail
4​
Return To Unit
7​
7​
-0.5​
FailPassPass
5​
Triple Double A
5​
7​
2.4​
PassPassPass
6​
On The River
7​
7​
0​
PassPassPass
7​
Youarenotforgiven
51​
7​
-34​
FailFailFail
8​
Wondrous Light
4.5​
7​
2​
PassPassPass
9​
Swift Salian
10​
7​
-5​
FailPassPass
 
4.52

1 High OpinionPASS1 High OpinionFAIL1 High OpinionFAIL1 High Opinion
7.6​
5.65​
-1.95​
2 AlbegonePASS2 AlbegonePASS2 AlbegonePASS2 Albegone
5​
5.65​
0.65​
3 Thornaby PearlPASS3 Thornaby PearlPASS3 Thornaby PearlPASS3 Thornaby Pearl
4​
5.65​
1.65​
4 ToptimePASS4 ToptimePASS4 ToptimePASS4 Toptime
6.2​
5.65​
-0.55​
5 Wrestling RevenueFAIL5 Wrestling RevenuePASS5 Wrestling RevenuePASS5 Wrestling Revenue
4.1​
5.65​
1.55​
6 Charging BullFAIL6 Charging BullFAIL6 Charging BullFAIL6 Charging Bull
24​
5.65​
-18.35​
 
5.03 Aftertimed

1 Dors DelightFAIL1 Dors DelightFAIL1 Dors DelightFAIL
50​
16​
-34​
3 SweetstevieFAIL3 SweetstevieFAIL3 SweetstevieFAIL
55​
16​
-39​
5 WingstarFAIL5 WingstarFAIL5 WingstarFAIL
21​
16​
-5​
6 Wrist ArtPASS6 Wrist ArtPASS6 Wrist ArtPASS
5.5​
16​
10.5​
8 Churchill's SpiritPASS8 Churchill's SpiritPASS8 Churchill's SpiritPASS
16​
16​
0​
9 Rockafeller SkankPASS9 Rockafeller SkankPASS9 Rockafeller SkankPASS
1.76​
16​
14.24​
10 Sapphire DreamFAIL10 Sapphire DreamFAIL10 Sapphire DreamFAIL
9​
16​
7​
16​
 
Aftertimed 5.15

1 Mythical BayPASS
1​
Mythical BayPASS1 Mythical BayPASS
1.91​
9​
7.09​
3 Impossible MissionPASS
3​
Impossible MissionPASS3 Impossible MissionPASS
17​
9​
-8​
4 HonouramongthievesPASS
4​
HonouramongthievesPASS4 HonouramongthievesPASS
6.5​
9​
2.5​
5 Cosmo BrownPASS
5​
Cosmo BrownPASS5 Cosmo BrownPASS
17​
9​
-8​
6 BarristerPASS
6​
BarristerFAIL6 BarristerFAIL
8​
9​
1​
7 Kindly QueenPASS
7​
Kindly QueenPASS7 Kindly QueenPASS
9​
9​
0​
8 GlennaFAIL
8​
GlennaFAIL8 GlennaFAIL
9​
9​
0​
9​
 
Aftertimed
5.30 Leopardstown

1 Cloughleagh BridgePASS1 Cloughleagh BridgeFAIL1 Cloughleagh BridgePASS
42​
13.5​
-28.5​
2 Lily BearPASS2 Lily BearPASS2 Lily BearPASS
5​
13.5​
8.5​
3 Pisiffik GingerPASS3 Pisiffik GingerPASS3 Pisiffik GingerPASS
4.3​
13.5​
9.2​
4 Star Glory PASS4 Star Glory PASS4 Star Glory PASS
7
13.5
6.5
5 Caoch The PiperPASS5 Caoch The PiperPASS5 Caoch The PiperPASS
21​
13.5​
-7.5​
6 Dear MadamPASS6 Dear MadamPASS6 Dear MadamPASS
13.5​
13.5​
0​
7 EpiloguePASS7 EpilogueFAIL7 EpiloguePASS
14​
13.5​
-0.5​
8 Cashel QueenPASS8 Cashel QueenPASS8 Cashel QueenPASS
5.6​
13.5​
7.9​
9 Celtic MoonPASS9 Celtic Moon FRFAIL9 Celtic MoonPASS
17.5​
13.5​
-4​
13.5​
 
I just ran a quick test on your theory Paul Brown Paul Brown hope you don't mind.
Here are the overall results.

So this would be betting every runner Below At or Above the Median.

1781197729602.png

What I will say from the test is, there are certain courses where you could make a LOT of money backing the ABOVE, but you'd go through massive LLR's. Some courses perform really well with the Below too.

Here are some AW stats.
1781197975217.png

There is method to it, just need to be selective.



Cheers
 
Last edited:
Back
Top