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I've no idea. I am waiting until the year is over and during the lull when the only Flat racing is aw will have time to explore what might be made of the fact that quite a few win as 4yos moving forward. From the research angle, the two most important issues for me will be (a) can the original list of qualifiers be substantially reduced without a commensurate loss of winners (87 being more horses than I feel able to follow) and (b) when they win as 4yos is it clear on the basic criteria I use that they were likely to (I would never follow a list blindly). If I am lucky, I might find a basis for a manageable list (up to a couple of dozen) from which about ten, on 2026's experience, might reasonably be expected to win when they do, and not when they shouldn't.

Probably another blind alley, but unless one goes down it, one doesn't know.
 
AI Can work it out quite quickly

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Based on the 16 runs you provided for American Affair after your saved date of April 27, 2024, here are the calculated betting statistics (based on a 1-unit / £1 level stake per race):

Summary of Results​

  • Total Runs: 16
  • Winning Runs: 6
  • Losing Runs: 10

Profit / Loss Breakdown​

Winning Returns (Profit):

  • 16.6.24 Thirsk (6/1) = +6.00
  • 14.9.24 Doncaster (4/1) = +4.00
  • 19.4.25 Musselburgh (7/2) = +3.50
  • 15.5.25 York (7/2) = +3.50
  • 17.6.25 Ascot (11/1) = +11.00
  • 31.7.26 Goodwood (12/1) = +12.00
  • Total Profit from Wins = +40.00 units
Losing Returns (Losses):

  • 10 losing runs at 1 unit staked per run = -10.00 units
Total Net Profit / Loss:

  • +40.00 (Wins) - 10.00 (Losses) = +30.00 units (or +£30.00 to a £1 level stake)

Key Statistics​

  • Strike Rate: 37.5% (6 wins from 16 runs)
  • Total Staked: 16.00 units
  • ROI (Yield / Return on Investment): +187.5% (Calculated as: Net Profit / Total Staked x 100)
 
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Based on the 15 runs you provided for Brighterdaysahead (FR) after your saved date of April 9, 2023, here are the calculated betting statistics (based on a 1-unit / £1 level stake per race):

Summary of Results​

  • Total Runs: 15
  • Winning Runs: 10
  • Losing Runs: 5

Profit / Loss Breakdown​

Winning Returns (Profit):

  • 09.4.23 Fairyhouse (5/4) = +1.25
  • 19.10.23 Thurles (1/4) = +0.25
  • 10.11.23 Down Royal (2/1) = +2.00
  • 11.2.24 Navan (1/3) = +0.33
  • 13.4.24 Aintree (6/5) = +1.20
  • 01.11.24 Down Royal (4/5) = +0.80
  • 23.11.24 Punchestown (9/4) = +2.25
  • 29.12.24 Leopardstown (5/2) = +2.50
  • 01.2.26 Leopardstown (11/4) = +2.75
  • 09.4.26 Aintree (13/8) = +1.63
  • Total Profit from Wins = +14.96 units
Losing Returns (Losses):

  • 5 losing runs at 1 unit staked per run = -5.00 units
Total Net Profit / Loss:

  • +14.96 (Wins) - 5.00 (Losses) = +9.96 units (or +£9.96 to a £1 level stake)

Key Statistics​

  • Strike Rate: 66.67% (10 wins from 15 runs)
  • Total Staked: 15.00 units
  • ROI (Yield / Return on Investment): +66.39% (Calculated as: Net Profit / Total Staked x 100)
 
JennyK said:
I've no idea. I am waiting until the year is over and during the lull when the only Flat racing is aw will have time to explore what might be made of the fact that quite a few win as 4yos moving forward. From the research angle, the two most important issues for me will be (a) can the original list of qualifiers be substantially reduced without a commensurate loss of winners (87 being more horses than I feel able to follow) and (b) when they win as 4yos is it clear on the basic criteria I use that they were likely to (I would never follow a list blindly). If I am lucky, I might find a basis for a manageable list (up to a couple of dozen) from which about ten, on 2026's experience, might reasonably be expected to win when they do, and not when they shouldn't.

Probably another blind alley, but unless one goes down it, one doesn't know.
Click to expand...
Here is your answer JennyK JennyK

This does not include the previous 24 winners you had excluded.

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This is all qualifiers from the rules you have set in 2026.

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The ROI is three horses. Mae Amor at BSP 191 contributes +£1,865; take her out and the +58% becomes about +11%; take out Jungle Drums (36) and Hundred Caps (29) as well and the whole thing is fractionally negative on 391 bets.

Is it Profitable Overall..... YES

if you have the full 130 horse qualifying list from 2025, but the overall picture is, that it relies on 3 big priced winners.

Just wanted to add a little context.

Sul :handgestures-thumbup:
 
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Sullybomb Sullybomb

No, that is not my answer. I had merely noted that in previous years 3yos who won all-age handicaps often won similar races the following year while those who just won 3yo only races less often seemed successful as 4yos. January to March is a relatively quiet time for me, racing-wise, with usually just one or two aw cards a day, so scope to review my list of 87 and see if I can find a basis for defining what would be a manageable subset from among this year's 3yos.
 
JennyK JennyK Here are the horses from your original 87 that are propping up your list. Which is why I precisely asked the question whether your list of horses actually makes money? I'd certainly be interested under which subset you'd remotely consider them a VDW bet?

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This Should reduce the number of races to analyse JennyK JennyK . Also it removes the 66/1, 33/ and 25/1 that was making it look bad​


The Good news is that it is easy to change over in 2027


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These are the winners so far since the start of 2026 To give you an idea of the various odds for the winners only .​


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Sandscreendeliverd​

Runs in the Epsom 4.00 Tomorrow
 
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