JennyK
Gelding
Over the years VDW suggested several ways of compiling lists of horses worth following, often based on speed figures. And the most successful VDWer of whom I am aware, Lee, believed that many of VDW's selections were list-based.
I've always been in two minds about lists. On the one hand, it is undeniably interesting when one's tracking arrangements identify one in the following day's cards. On the other, maybe one gives too much attention to "list" horses and in doing so fails to give full attention to the other runners who, taking all the VDW factors into account, have better chances.
One observation my racing friend made seems supported statistically, ie one can rely more on the form of 3yos who beat older horses in handicaps than those who only won a three-year-old only handicap. My database suggests that any 3yo handicap winner has a decent chance of winning a handicap as a 4yo, though those who were in the first category seem to win proportionately more often. Taking sprint handicaps, approaching half of all 3yo winners of handicaps involving older horses seem to win handicaps as 4yos, and at, on average, rewarding odds (around 6/1). This suggests such horses are at least worth putting a marker against, not to follow blindly but when they crop up in a field, to ensure they are not overlooked. The structure of VDW's ability rating - total win prize money divided by races won - seems sometimes to over-state the current ability of older horses and under-state the ability of younger ones, especially relatively lightly raced 4yos.
My database suggests that in 2025 87 3yos won sprint handicaps against older horses. On my historical data something like forty of those should win handicaps as 4yos. I only created the list of 87 this week and of course some have already won, twenty-four. So if the historical percentage works out this year, about a quarter of the remaining 63 should win by the end of the year. (Many of them have already run, without winning, of course, and on the historical evidence a small number may not run as 4yos.) For what it is worth, the 63 are below. Absolutely not a list I'll be following blindly, but I have added, through conditional formatting, coding so that whenever any of these runs in a UK sprint handicap over the rest of the year, until they have won, they will be signalled and then given the usual VDW assessment in terms of ability, form and conditions in the specific races in which they run:
I've always been in two minds about lists. On the one hand, it is undeniably interesting when one's tracking arrangements identify one in the following day's cards. On the other, maybe one gives too much attention to "list" horses and in doing so fails to give full attention to the other runners who, taking all the VDW factors into account, have better chances.
One observation my racing friend made seems supported statistically, ie one can rely more on the form of 3yos who beat older horses in handicaps than those who only won a three-year-old only handicap. My database suggests that any 3yo handicap winner has a decent chance of winning a handicap as a 4yo, though those who were in the first category seem to win proportionately more often. Taking sprint handicaps, approaching half of all 3yo winners of handicaps involving older horses seem to win handicaps as 4yos, and at, on average, rewarding odds (around 6/1). This suggests such horses are at least worth putting a marker against, not to follow blindly but when they crop up in a field, to ensure they are not overlooked. The structure of VDW's ability rating - total win prize money divided by races won - seems sometimes to over-state the current ability of older horses and under-state the ability of younger ones, especially relatively lightly raced 4yos.
My database suggests that in 2025 87 3yos won sprint handicaps against older horses. On my historical data something like forty of those should win handicaps as 4yos. I only created the list of 87 this week and of course some have already won, twenty-four. So if the historical percentage works out this year, about a quarter of the remaining 63 should win by the end of the year. (Many of them have already run, without winning, of course, and on the historical evidence a small number may not run as 4yos.) For what it is worth, the 63 are below. Absolutely not a list I'll be following blindly, but I have added, through conditional formatting, coding so that whenever any of these runs in a UK sprint handicap over the rest of the year, until they have won, they will be signalled and then given the usual VDW assessment in terms of ability, form and conditions in the specific races in which they run:
| Acrisius |
| Addison Grey |
| Arabian Leopard |
| Billie Be Quick |
| Binhareer |
| Brosay |
| Caburn |
| Candy |
| Chuti Manika |
| Cindy Lou Who |
| City Captain |
| Corolla Point |
| Coul Angel |
| Dan Tucker |
| Dandy Magic |
| Diligently |
| Diomed Duke |
| Dr Strangelove |
| Easy Peeler |
| Fancy Dancer |
| Fiorella Princess |
| Flash Harry |
| Fluorescence |
| Galaxy Zoo |
| Getreadytorumble |
| Hidden Verse |
| I Need Your Love |
| Ironist |
| Jm Jhingree |
| Just Queen High |
| King Of Light |
| Kinswoman |
| Kisskodi |
| Kosometsuke |
| Lorna B |
| Mademoiselle |
| Marchogion |
| Money Pockets |
| Nad Alshiba Green |
| Northern Ticker |
| Novamay |
| Pietro |
| Promise Time |
| Pure Artistry |
| Queen All Star |
| Raneenn |
| Rare Change |
| Royal Accord |
| Sanbona |
| Sandscreendeliverd |
| Seraphim Angel |
| Son Of Astar |
| South Road |
| Spiritualism |
| Star Of Mehmas |
| Storm Call |
| Territorial Knight |
| The Feminine Urge |
| Tiva |
| Topwarrior |
| Up The Anti |
| Westgate Warrior |
| Zoulu Warrior |
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