I have long been convinced - although I have no evidence to back up my theory - that it is unprofitable to blindly bet horses that return to the track in 7 days or under.
Such horses are, more often than not, overbet possibly because the '7 day returner' rule is, or was, a popular system for winner finding in days gone by, maybe when training facilities were not as good as they are today.
As
Chesham and others have previously pointed out, it is wise to consider why trainers turn out their horses so quickly. The main, although not the only, reason is to take advantage of their current handicap mark prior to a higher BHB rating resulting in a rise in weight in the near future. While this is uncontestably true part of me thinks that such horses' record lends themselves more to laying rather than betting.
I freely admit that I have no records to back this up, but I do like a good laying thread.
Simple rules:
1. Any horse returning to the track between 1 and 7 days since it's last run.
2. BSP of 10.00 and under. The lay price taken at the same time as posting.
Start tomorrow.
Such horses are, more often than not, overbet possibly because the '7 day returner' rule is, or was, a popular system for winner finding in days gone by, maybe when training facilities were not as good as they are today.
As
Chesham and others have previously pointed out, it is wise to consider why trainers turn out their horses so quickly. The main, although not the only, reason is to take advantage of their current handicap mark prior to a higher BHB rating resulting in a rise in weight in the near future. While this is uncontestably true part of me thinks that such horses' record lends themselves more to laying rather than betting.I freely admit that I have no records to back this up, but I do like a good laying thread.
Simple rules:
1. Any horse returning to the track between 1 and 7 days since it's last run.
2. BSP of 10.00 and under. The lay price taken at the same time as posting.
Start tomorrow.
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add a portfolio of those together and you have some profit!
