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Last run

gerry

gerry

Mare
There has been so much going on with horses and there form got me thinking, Years ago in old sporting chronicle or life there used to be just the last race form to go by i know long time ago.
But now we have every stat in the book at our finger tips yet does it get easier or harder i would say odd time we go back further and find something that trickers bet like not had ground its best on or what ever reason.
But in the main it comes round to recent form so here i will pick my fancies from last run only.
I will study as i always do and pick my horses but will only give the ones here it was there last run that swayed me see how it goes start with 100 points.
Will check to see if any today of the fancies i have.
 
After looking at my horses for today there is only one who has raced close to recent and it runs in the 4 40 FFOS LAS PILGRIMS KING.
This horse has great record round here and last time out stepped it up in distance and class in my opinion where it weakened late on but back to 2 miles and dropping in class now for sure and mark still the same must have very chance in this.
i will be honest in my bets although need be took in trust for odds but got 9/2 bog this horse last night.
1pt win 9/2bog.
 
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An interesting idea gerry gerry and best off for the outcome. While i agree that recent good form is a positive there is often a price to be paid via poor value odds. ? A punter can back plenty of winners and yet still show a loss and poor value prices will often be the cause.

My recollections of the Sporting Life are that they showed a horses last three runs in detail plus all of its previous wins above this, and back in those those long ago times this was often enough to enable finding some good bets but these days the markets are better informed and generally more accurate at the front end.

Anyway well done for starting the thread. :)
 
mick said:
An interesting idea gerry gerry and best off for the outcome. While i agree that recent good form is a positive there is often a price to be paid via poor value odds. ? A punter can back plenty of winners and yet still show a loss and poor value prices will often be the cause.

My recollections of the Sporting Life are that they showed a horses last three runs in detail plus all of its previous wins above this, and back in those those long ago times this was often enough to enable finding some good bets but these days the markets are better informed and generally more accurate at the front end.

Anyway well done for starting the thread. :)
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yeah i think it was sporting chronicle was last run but so long agoi was not allowed to touch it anyway lol i was deff one race run in daily record.
 
looks like even 70 days of was to long and needed run, so will now hopefully get horses running more and be able to cut to no more than maybe 40 days.
Now 99 points.
 
After having few with chances the one that looks in with chance for me is PISANELLO 3 40 REDCAR.
This one ran good race last time round here in fact last twice but was soft last time and has won twice in france on heavy so ground should be no problem.
I m guessing better drawn today going by results of last race and i like d tudhope back on it.
The handicapper not punishing this horse for running well because hasnt won since was raised for only win in this country but last twice cheeks seem to have helped although didnt before but i think this is sound bet for the bet i am putting on.
1 pt e/w 3places 6/1
 
Hi gerry gerry your 3.40 an interesting race. The starting point for myself is my own ratings and i have Fame And Acclaim and Pisanello Jt rated but on = which in my talk means they have the correct OR so no advantage and no bet. I backed Fame lto 2nd 50/1 and Pisan 4lto 3rd 14/1 ( EP ) so i was kind of hoping that neither would win today but reading your above i now hope that Pisan does so for you. :)

My bet today is Leic 4.35 Zim Baby @ 18/1 and 16/1 Def chancing my arm with this one but live in hope its part of what we do. :)

Mon 24th Leic 4.35 : Zim Baby @ 18/1

A 5 fur 0-85 with 9 run. Zim has the looks of a forlorn hoper and this may prove so but there is a case of sorts to be made for her and likely bigger odds might justify the play. Her scores in Turf Hcaps are 3-31 but her highest winning grade is 0-85 and above this she is 0-21 and her highest winning mark is OR 85 and above this she is 0-13 so these two numbers help give a different and more positive perspective, even more so when her ask here is OR 78 in a 0-85 which is really a 0-82. Lto she ran a mare but this was in a FT HD + BL combo in a 0-100 grade and it's interesting to note that no head gear is used here. Her four wins have been two with BL and two with none so this ploy might revitalize her interest.

She is previous course winner over 6 fur but i do not think this drop to 5 fur will hinder because on the 4th Nov 2020 the same tactic was used on soft ground, and she won a 0-85 by a len, and that win also came off the back of a rotten lto run, it was also her second win of the season as per her ask here. I am not a fan of the trainer but fair dues his ytd tally is 94 wins incl 5 this month. I have no thoughts Re the rider other than i was surprised to see he has only 8 winners this ytd but one of those came 5 days ago and he is 1-3 on Zim with the win being her most recent one. She has won a 0-85 under 9-7 so her 9-5 here should not prevent and 3 of her 4 wins have been on softer ground which is now the case at Leic.

WH have opened early doors at 18/1 and attempting to snag some of this appears a good starting play.
 
I can deff see your case mick for zim baby, The worry i think is showing enough speed over 5 fur to get race to suit by being well up with speedier types.Also i feel this being my bets with last run that it being 10 runs since zim baby was close in that i mean with in 2 lengths in sprints that is bit far back which i know is always worry for you how far do you go back.I do hope at price it goes close for you for sure.
I do think rambuso creek last run was very good after couple impossible tasks and in similar race from decent draw although will be held up so draw might need luck in running, Goes well fresh this horse and last run was after break but can run two decent in row so ground is little unknown so thats why i picked my pisanello as my bet for today.
 
Another 2 points gone surprised never got horse any cover and looked like run to free for style , But that was just for place to be fair as winner won as it liked . the draw didnt help as seems low is best today and just shows need wait on day to decide ground for draw.
Now 97 points
 
Possibley one more for today considering draw 5 25 redcar right on that rail PORTERINTHEJUNGLE considering breeding surprised last run was first time ever at 5 fur stayed on strongly to win and claim taking most of 5lb extra, ground should not worry it and could possibley lead all the way here.
1pt win 9/2 bog.
 
mick said:
Hi gerry gerry your 3.40 an interesting race. The starting point for myself is my own ratings and i have Fame And Acclaim and Pisanello Jt rated but on = which in my talk means they have the correct OR so no advantage and no bet. I backed Fame lto 2nd 50/1 and Pisan 4lto 3rd 14/1 ( EP ) so i was kind of hoping that neither would win today but reading your above i now hope that Pisan does so for you. :)

My bet today is Leic 4.35 Zim Baby @ 18/1 and 16/1 Def chancing my arm with this one but live in hope its part of what we do. :)

Mon 24th Leic 4.35 : Zim Baby @ 18/1

A 5 fur 0-85 with 9 run. Zim has the looks of a forlorn hoper and this may prove so but there is a case of sorts to be made for her and likely bigger odds might justify the play. Her scores in Turf Hcaps are 3-31 but her highest winning grade is 0-85 and above this she is 0-21 and her highest winning mark is OR 85 and above this she is 0-13 so these two numbers help give a different and more positive perspective, even more so when her ask here is OR 78 in a 0-85 which is really a 0-82. Lto she ran a mare but this was in a FT HD + BL combo in a 0-100 grade and it's interesting to note that no head gear is used here. Her four wins have been two with BL and two with none so this ploy might revitalize her interest.

She is previous course winner over 6 fur but i do not think this drop to 5 fur will hinder because on the 4th Nov 2020 the same tactic was used on soft ground, and she won a 0-85 by a len, and that win also came off the back of a rotten lto run, it was also her second win of the season as per her ask here. I am not a fan of the trainer but fair dues his ytd tally is 94 wins incl 5 this month. I have no thoughts Re the rider other than i was surprised to see he has only 8 winners this ytd but one of those came 5 days ago and he is 1-3 on Zim with the win being her most recent one. She has won a 0-85 under 9-7 so her 9-5 here should not prevent and 3 of her 4 wins have been on softer ground which is now the case at Leic.

WH have opened early doors at 18/1 and attempting to snag some of this appears a good starting play.
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Ran great race mick so unlucky but nice place price and i think its hard to say 5fur to short but maybe just the style of run of winner made it harder.
 
Other point away from maybe trying to safe day which is not point of exercise so need stick to one per day to survive this but i think last two run well enough today so onwards with it.
96 points
 
So hard to get down to one for me but out of the maybe three i lowered it to i have finally went for 4 30 catterick MUSIC SOCIETY this horse has been running in far better races for while now in fact since last time ran in class 4 round here where he won easily, I think trainer would have liked to have dropped couple pounds to be in the comfort zone but has been running so consistant just not happened so will just have to have a go today, Draw could have been better but will tuck in i am sure and get cover.
2 pts win 0/30
 
Hi gerry gerry your 4.30 another interesting race choice i have backed Lezardrieux @ 8/1 so best of to both of us. :) Re your concerns about the draw i wish i could swop my 3 for your 9 because on Soft ground at Catt these days the jockeys often decided to cross over and race against the near side rail.

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Thats good for mine then mick interesting looks like yours might have only one challanger for lead today, between yours and motawaazy should show up early if on going day.
Although i cant lie the more i looked at mine the stronger i feel ran over 5 last time will have got that sharpness back and deff easiest race so far for him be dissapointed with loss here but you never know and my trainer here has done exact same ith his other one dropped to 5 last time bay breeze but young horse and not yet at same standard yet.Deff is interesting race for sure good luck.
 
I have a E/W bet on Osio Rapido MS i have going up in cl from a 203 to a 217 Lezarddrieux was another i deliberated on but came from a 205 to a 189 ah OR a N/R so no bet from me
 
Thanks guys would have been gutted if he had touched of by his other one as same followed same step up nice forecast.
Wish i had bet it the forecast.
 
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