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- Thread starter Leodis
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Leodis
Gelding
Yes, I will have to look through that archive again.Leodis
Here are some posts from the old Gummy forum which I think show Lee's developing understanding of VDW's approach; the posts and others he made have certainly greatly helped me with mine.
We don't have much choice other than to reverse engineer his work, but I understand it is open to the interpretation of the person doing it and can fall foul of assumptions. There are, however, strong patterns emerging - like the key horse criteria and, in particular, those that, on face value didn't quite make the 1-3 rule.
Regards
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Chesham
Sire
Rather than clog up the Bowers Thread perhaps add a horse to the list like Lee did
This completely shifts the dynamic from being reactive to being proactive. It means Lee wasn't handicapping the daily card from scratch; he was managing a portfolio of "coiled springs."
By working from a list, the daily analysis becomes incredibly focused: you aren't looking for a winner among 12 random horses; you are simply checking if today is the day your targeted horse has finally found its perfect race condition.
To replicate this, our primary exercise becomes results analysis rather than racecard analysis. We need to build a Tracker List.
Here is how we will define the criteria for a horse to earn a spot on our list, and exactly what we monitor once they are on it:
Phase 1: Earning a Spot on the List
We review recent races (especially high-class handicaps and Group races) specifically looking for the "glorious losers." A horse goes on the list if it meets these criteria:
The Elite Anchor: The horse finished midfield or worse, but the winner or runner-up is a proven monster, a rapidly progressive yardstick, or a massive festival plot.
The Hidden Metric: Despite the poor finishing position, the horse maintained a high Timeform Speed Figure (Tfig) or Racing Post Rating (RPR) relative to the grade.
Handicapper Bait: The optical defeat guarantees the official handicapper will drop their Official Rating (OR) by a few pounds.
Phase 2: Monitoring Trainer Intent (The Entry Phase)
Once a horse is on the list, we don't blindly back it next time out. We wait for the trainer's entry placement to signal the strike. We monitor:
Entry Volume Profiling: This is the ultimate tell. If a horse on our list suddenly receives a cluster of future entries (especially 4+ entries over a short period), the trainer knows the horse is well-handicapped, peaking, and ready to win now. They are actively hunting for the softest spot.
The Class Drop: The entry is confirmed in a lower class bracket (e.g., Class 2 down to Class 4).
The Weight Relief: The horse is declared carrying significantly less weight than in its "anchor" race, maximizing the advantage of the class drop.
By building this Tracker List, we let the general betting public overreact to the recent string of "zeros" next to the horse's name, while we simply wait for the entry profile and weight drop to align.
This is a flawless example. You can see the entire "coiled spring" blueprint playing out perfectly in the data and the Timeform reports.
Sanbuch is the ultimate "Tracker List" horse. If the turf season hadn't ended in November, he would have been a massive target for his very next run.
Here is exactly why Lee would have put Sanbuch straight onto the list, breaking it down using the criteria we just established:
1. The Elite Anchor: Bumping into a Monster
Sanbuch didn't just lose his last two races; he had the severe misfortune of running into Malt Or Mash twice in a row.
Look at the Timeform comment for the winner, Malt Or Mash: "will likely develop into a pattern performer next year... with the possibility of still more to come such has been his rate of progress."
Sanbuch wasn't getting beaten by standard Class 2 or Class 3 handicappers. He was getting beaten by a rapidly progressive Group-class horse masquerading in a handicap.
2. The Illusion of the "Bridesmaid"
To the general betting public, a form string of 2-2-2 looks like a horse that is ungenuine, doesn't know how to win, or is anchored by the handicapper. Punters hate backing "bridesmaids."
However, the hidden metrics tell the real story: Sanbuch posted massive Timeform Figures (Tfig) of 111 and 110. He was running the races of his life, but his form was completely masked by Malt Or Mash’s brilliance.
3. The Future Trigger Condition
The most valuable part of this data is that Timeform literally hands you the exact race conditions to wait for.
The quote: "left the impression he may have more to offer when tried beyond 1½m, so he could be an interesting one for the top handicaps over 1¾m or even 2m next year."
The quote from September: "crying out for a step up in trip (will stay 2m), there's more to come from him."
How Lee Would Have Played It
Because the season ended, Sanbuch went into winter quarters. But if there had been another month of racing, Lee’s strategy would have been clinical:
1 Add to List: Sanbuch goes on the Tracker.
2 Wait for the Entry: Ignore any future entries at 1m 4f (12f). Wait specifically for Luca Cumani to enter him in a handicap over 1m 6f (14f) or 2m.
3 Check the Rivals: Ensure Malt Or Mash (or a similarly progressive 3-year-old) is not in the field.
4 Strike: The moment Sanbuch gets his longer trip against standard, exposed stayers, you unload.
This completely validates the proactive "List" approach. You aren't guessing on the day; you already know exactly what conditions Sanbuch needs to win, and you simply wait for the trainer to place him in those conditions.
This completely shifts the dynamic from being reactive to being proactive. It means Lee wasn't handicapping the daily card from scratch; he was managing a portfolio of "coiled springs."
By working from a list, the daily analysis becomes incredibly focused: you aren't looking for a winner among 12 random horses; you are simply checking if today is the day your targeted horse has finally found its perfect race condition.
To replicate this, our primary exercise becomes results analysis rather than racecard analysis. We need to build a Tracker List.
Here is how we will define the criteria for a horse to earn a spot on our list, and exactly what we monitor once they are on it:
Phase 1: Earning a Spot on the List
We review recent races (especially high-class handicaps and Group races) specifically looking for the "glorious losers." A horse goes on the list if it meets these criteria:
The Elite Anchor: The horse finished midfield or worse, but the winner or runner-up is a proven monster, a rapidly progressive yardstick, or a massive festival plot.
The Hidden Metric: Despite the poor finishing position, the horse maintained a high Timeform Speed Figure (Tfig) or Racing Post Rating (RPR) relative to the grade.
Handicapper Bait: The optical defeat guarantees the official handicapper will drop their Official Rating (OR) by a few pounds.
Phase 2: Monitoring Trainer Intent (The Entry Phase)
Once a horse is on the list, we don't blindly back it next time out. We wait for the trainer's entry placement to signal the strike. We monitor:
Entry Volume Profiling: This is the ultimate tell. If a horse on our list suddenly receives a cluster of future entries (especially 4+ entries over a short period), the trainer knows the horse is well-handicapped, peaking, and ready to win now. They are actively hunting for the softest spot.
The Class Drop: The entry is confirmed in a lower class bracket (e.g., Class 2 down to Class 4).
The Weight Relief: The horse is declared carrying significantly less weight than in its "anchor" race, maximizing the advantage of the class drop.
By building this Tracker List, we let the general betting public overreact to the recent string of "zeros" next to the horse's name, while we simply wait for the entry profile and weight drop to align.
This is a flawless example. You can see the entire "coiled spring" blueprint playing out perfectly in the data and the Timeform reports.
Sanbuch is the ultimate "Tracker List" horse. If the turf season hadn't ended in November, he would have been a massive target for his very next run.
Here is exactly why Lee would have put Sanbuch straight onto the list, breaking it down using the criteria we just established:
1. The Elite Anchor: Bumping into a Monster
Sanbuch didn't just lose his last two races; he had the severe misfortune of running into Malt Or Mash twice in a row.
Look at the Timeform comment for the winner, Malt Or Mash: "will likely develop into a pattern performer next year... with the possibility of still more to come such has been his rate of progress."
Sanbuch wasn't getting beaten by standard Class 2 or Class 3 handicappers. He was getting beaten by a rapidly progressive Group-class horse masquerading in a handicap.
2. The Illusion of the "Bridesmaid"
To the general betting public, a form string of 2-2-2 looks like a horse that is ungenuine, doesn't know how to win, or is anchored by the handicapper. Punters hate backing "bridesmaids."
However, the hidden metrics tell the real story: Sanbuch posted massive Timeform Figures (Tfig) of 111 and 110. He was running the races of his life, but his form was completely masked by Malt Or Mash’s brilliance.
3. The Future Trigger Condition
The most valuable part of this data is that Timeform literally hands you the exact race conditions to wait for.
The quote: "left the impression he may have more to offer when tried beyond 1½m, so he could be an interesting one for the top handicaps over 1¾m or even 2m next year."
The quote from September: "crying out for a step up in trip (will stay 2m), there's more to come from him."
How Lee Would Have Played It
Because the season ended, Sanbuch went into winter quarters. But if there had been another month of racing, Lee’s strategy would have been clinical:
1 Add to List: Sanbuch goes on the Tracker.
2 Wait for the Entry: Ignore any future entries at 1m 4f (12f). Wait specifically for Luca Cumani to enter him in a handicap over 1m 6f (14f) or 2m.
3 Check the Rivals: Ensure Malt Or Mash (or a similarly progressive 3-year-old) is not in the field.
4 Strike: The moment Sanbuch gets his longer trip against standard, exposed stayers, you unload.
This completely validates the proactive "List" approach. You aren't guessing on the day; you already know exactly what conditions Sanbuch needs to win, and you simply wait for the trainer to place him in those conditions.
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Chesham
Sire
Lee said he was working from lists, which is different to trying to find a winner in a race with a similar method, having not been following the horseSome good points,Chesham, and I remember a few of us (Pippex etc) exploring the declaration angle back on FS.
My model is geared towards the last three race profile. It does flag Follow (List) if today's race isn't quite the one.
Regards
You’ve hit the nail completely on the head with your intuition about the rivals. The clue is entirely embedded in who these horses were running against.
Lee was employing a classic, highly effective betting strategy known as Collateral Form or "Key Race" Profiling (often referred to as chasing "Hot Formlines").
Here is the exact blueprint of how his strategy worked, hidden right in plain sight within the build-up races:
The Strategy: The "Shark Tank" Drop-Down
Lee was identifying horses that had spent their last three races locking horns with absolute superstars, rapidly progressive yardsticks, or massive festival plots.
The general public looks at a horse’s recent form figures—seeing an 8th, an 11th, or a 4th—and immediately downgrades them. Lee, however, looked at the quality of the conquerors. He waited for a horse to take a few optical "defeats" against elite rivals, knowing that their Timeform Speed (TS) and Racing Post Ratings (RPR) were actually indicating massive underlying ability. As soon as the horse was placed in a race without a progressive monster (the 4th race), Lee struck.
Here is how that exact clue plays out in the data you provided:
1. Byron: Swimming with Group 1 Sharks
In Byron's build-up, he finished 3rd and 8th. The general betting public sees a horse regressing. But look at who beat him:
American Post: A multiple Group 1 superstar who won the Poule d'Essai des Poulains.
Azamour: An absolute titan who went on to win the St James's Palace Stakes, Irish Champion Stakes, and King George.
The Strike: After running in G1 company against two of the best horses of the decade, Byron dropped into a G2 at Goodwood. To Lee, this was a massive drop in class, and Byron duly won.
2. Persian Waters: The Festival Plot
In his third build-up race, Persian Waters finished a distant 8th.
The Rival: He was beaten 13 lengths by Xenophon at the Cheltenham Festival (Coral Cup). Xenophon was one of the most legendary, heavily plotted handicap hurdle winners of that era.
The Strike: Persian Waters had his form brutally exposed by a graded-level superstar. When he reappeared at Haydock in a standard Class 2 handicap, dropping 11lbs in weight from his Cheltenham run, Lee knew he was incredibly well-handicapped against standard opposition.
3. Top Dirham: Dodging the Nemesis
Top Dirham’s form looked terrible to the casual punter: 2nd, 11th, 8th.
The Rivals: He was repeatedly tortured by Goodbye Mr Bond, who was an incredibly progressive, well-handicapped horse racking up wins that summer.
The Strike: Top Dirham was running huge races against a horse that was simply ahead of the handicapper. As soon as Top Dirham lined up in a race where Goodbye Mr Bond wasn't entered (July 19th at Ayr), his true class showed, and he won.
4. Captain Gerrard: The Champion Fillies
Captain Gerrard's only "blemish" in his build-up was a 4th place finish.
The Rival: He was beaten by Fleeting Spirit, who was arguably the best juvenile sprint filly in Europe that year (winning the Flying Childers and later the July Cup).
The Strike: Having held his own against a future champion, Captain Gerrard stepped into Group 3 company and dominated.
The Blueprint Summary
Lee's system required three steps to trigger a bet:
1 Find the "Hidden" Peak: Identify a horse that posted a strong TS or RPR in a recent race despite not winning.
2 Verify the Conqueror: Check the horses that beat them in the last 3 races. Were they Group 1 stars, heavily plotted handicap good-things, or subsequent serial winners? If yes, the form is "Hot".
3 Wait for the Drop: Wait until the horse is entered in a race where they avoid those elite rivals, drop slightly in class, or gain a favorable weight shift.
You read the form perfectly—the secret wasn't in the horses Lee backed, but in the caliber of the horses they had been losing to.
Chesham
Sire
Mr Swan may care to give thought not to a race as a whole but to he respective horse's performances over the last furlongs in each of their three previous outings
