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King George Ascot Saturday 26th July

Thomas

Colt
Incredibly there are only two English trained horses at the declaration stage, while Aidan O'Brien has four declared

It really is a sad state of affairs .

It would appear that Lambourn and Whirl are doubtful runners.
 
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Five runners by the look of it
Jan Brueghal 2. 96
Calandagan 2.76
Kalpana 6.0
Rebels Romance 6.2
Continuous. 100

The current prices on betfair .

Continuous is obviously the pacemaker, sometimes pacemakers set a strong pace, other times they set a steady or slow pace depending on what the trainer thinks.

The betting indicates that four of the five runners have a chance.
 
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Saturday morning update

JB 3.25
Can 2.46
K 7.6
RR 6 4
Con 120

The market since closing declarations, show money has come for Calandagan, Jan Brueghal has drifted as has Kampala, Rebels Romance is steady.
 
Latest

JB 3.55
Can 2.3
K 7
RR 7
Con 160
Sustained support for Calandagan, the coolmore lads often let them drift before coming with the money in the last hour before the off.

I can't get an angle from a form perspective.
 
There's two races at the York Ebor meeting which runners from the Ascot King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes head to.

Since 2000, 34 runners have gone from the Ascot King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes to the York Juddmonte International Flat Stakes 1m 2f 56y Group1, 6 have won (17.6%) and 16 have won or placed (47.1%), this includes 5 winners coming from the King George VI and 1 won (20%)
The last winner of the York Juddmonte International Flat Stakes coming from the recent renewal of the King George VI was in 2021.

Since 2000, 5 runners have gone from the Ascot King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes to the
York Yorkshire Oaks Flat Stakes 1m 3f 188y Group1, 2 have won (40%) and 4 have won or placed (80%), this includes 3 winners coming from the King George VI and 2 won (66.7%)
The last winner of the York Yorkshire Oaks Flat Stakes coming from the recent renewal of the King George VI was in 2019.
 
Kalpana is entered in the Oakes
Continuous Judmonte
The winners potential plans below
IMG_3911.jpeg
TF Commemts from last years Judmont when CALANDAGAN finished 2nd to City Of Troy who had won that years Derby and the Coral cup
A fascinating renewal of what is consistently Britain's top all-aged middle-distance race, rivalled in Europe only by the Irish Champion and the Arc, attracting an appropriately international field, plenty of connections willing to take on the Derby winner City of Troy after what was considered his unconvincing effort in the Eclipse, 13 going to post, the largest field in the race's history - dating back to 1972 - and that a year after the joint-smallest field this century; despite the prescence of a presumed pacemaker, City of Troy made his own running, as he had when winning the Dewhurst last autumn, quite a few keen early, the tempo lifting into the straight, a trio of 3-y-os pulling well clear of some very smart older rivals, the overall time still a new course record, lowering Sea The Stars' mark for this race in 2009 by nearly a second - admittedly with the rail right in this year when it has become customary to be out quite a way for the first day of the meeting in the recent past - the first 2 still to show the full extent of their ability, too.

CITY OF TROY (USA) faced a much sterner test than he had in the Eclipse and was far more convincing, looking every bit the top-class colt he'd promised to be in his earlier victories against his own age group, on going firmer than good for the first time and clearly handling it well, making the running perhaps helping too, Moore typically judging things to a nicety; led, travelled well, kicked on early in straight, shaken up over 2f out, edged right entering final 1f, kept on well, always holding on; he's still not shown everything he can, just as in the Derby taking plenty of pulling up, with the chance to improve further potentially coming in the Irish Champion and Breeders' Cup Classic.

CALANDAGAN (IRE) confirmed himself every bit as good - an probably even better in fact - than he'd looked in running away with the King Edward VII 2 months earlier, coping well with the drop back in trip, showing himself right at home at the highest level, his performance worth marking up slightly, too, given he was the only one to make any impression from the rear third of the field; held up, shaken up over 3f out, good headway over 2f out, hung left briefly, took second final 1f, kept on well, always held by winner; open to further improvement, a win in a Group 1 seems sure to come his way before long, the Champion Stakes perhaps the race to provide it.
 
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Kalpana is entered in the Oakes
Continuous Judmonte
The winners potential plans below
View attachment 158852
TF Commemts from last years Judmont when CALANDAGAN finished 2nd to City Of Troy who had won that years Derby and the Coral cup
A fascinating renewal of what is consistently Britain's top all-aged middle-distance race, rivalled in Europe only by the Irish Champion and the Arc, attracting an appropriately international field, plenty of connections willing to take on the Derby winner City of Troy after what was considered his unconvincing effort in the Eclipse, 13 going to post, the largest field in the race's history - dating back to 1972 - and that a year after the joint-smallest field this century; despite the prescence of a presumed pacemaker, City of Troy made his own running, as he had when winning the Dewhurst last autumn, quite a few keen early, the tempo lifting into the straight, a trio of 3-y-os pulling well clear of some very smart older rivals, the overall time still a new course record, lowering Sea The Stars' mark for this race in 2009 by nearly a second - admittedly with the rail right in this year when it has become customary to be out quite a way for the first day of the meeting in the recent past - the first 2 still to show the full extent of their ability, too.

CITY OF TROY (USA) faced a much sterner test than he had in the Eclipse and was far more convincing, looking every bit the top-class colt he'd promised to be in his earlier victories against his own age group, on going firmer than good for the first time and clearly handling it well, making the running perhaps helping too, Moore typically judging things to a nicety; led, travelled well, kicked on early in straight, shaken up over 2f out, edged right entering final 1f, kept on well, always holding on; he's still not shown everything he can, just as in the Derby taking plenty of pulling up, with the chance to improve further potentially coming in the Irish Champion and Breeders' Cup Classic.

CALANDAGAN (IRE) confirmed himself every bit as good - an probably even better in fact - than he'd looked in running away with the King Edward VII 2 months earlier, coping well with the drop back in trip, showing himself right at home at the highest level, his performance worth marking up slightly, too, given he was the only one to make any impression from the rear third of the field; held up, shaken up over 3f out, good headway over 2f out, hung left briefly, took second final 1f, kept on well, always held by winner; open to further improvement, a win in a Group 1 seems sure to come his way before long, the Champion Stakes perhaps the race to provide it.
Fillies have a very nice record in the Arc in recent years, thought she ran a lovely trial for the race, I can see why they cut her odds, she strikes me as fitting the profile of an Arc winner. Bluestockingesque.
 
I can't comment on fillies specifically but personally I wouldn't be looking for inspiration for the Arc from the Ascot King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Diamond Flat Stakes, because since 2000, 53 runners from the Ascot race went to the following Arc, 5 won (9.43%) and 15 won or placed (28.3%) , that includes 12 winners of the King George VI , of which only 2 won (16.7%) the Arc in Oct.
 
There's two races at the York Ebor meeting which runners from the Ascot King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes head to.

Since 2000, 34 runners have gone from the Ascot King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes to the York Juddmonte International Flat Stakes 1m 2f 56y Group1, 6 have won (17.6%) and 16 have won or placed (47.1%), this includes 5 winners coming from the King George VI and 1 won (20%)
The last winner of the York Juddmonte International Flat Stakes coming from the recent renewal of the King George VI was in 2021.

Since 2000, 5 runners have gone from the Ascot King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes to the
York Yorkshire Oaks Flat Stakes 1m 3f 188y Group1, 2 have won (40%) and 4 have won or placed (80%), this includes 3 winners coming from the King George VI and 2 won (66.7%)
The last winner of the York Yorkshire Oaks Flat Stakes coming from the recent renewal of the King George VI was in 2019.
Forget saturday's race, that early pace made the race a nonsense, if coolmore had a plan then surely that wasn't it.
Just compare the sectionals with last year's race and the winner GOLIATH.
 
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In previous renewals the York Yorkshire Oaks Flat Stakes and York Juddmonte International Flat Stakes have been pointers to the Arc unlike the Ascot King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes, so see what comes out of the Ebor meeting
 
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Ryan Moore views before the race was run

I ride JAN BRUEGHEL who has done very little wrong throughout his career. He’s only had six starts and has won five of them including the St Leger. He beat Calandagan in the Coronation Cup last month and we think a mile and a half at Ascot will suit him well. Conditions should be absolutely fine for him as well. Hopefully he’s going to turn up in the same shape or even better and we’d be hopeful of a similar performance. He’s the highest rated horse in the field.

Calandagan looks like being at the head of the market. He won his first Group 1 at Saint-Cloud last month, beating Aventure and Junko. It was a small field but he was an impressive winner, and I remember Novellist winning the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud and then following up in this race a few years ago. He’s run in top company, has been beaten by some very good horses and won the King Edward VII over course and distance last year. He’s a very consistent, solid horse who I have a lot of respect for.

I know Kalpana pretty well. She’s had two very good runs this year. She won the Group 1 Champions Filles & Mares Stakes at Ascot last October on soft ground, but I don’t think she needs it soft. She’s performed well on quicker ground and her runs this year put her in the mix.

You can’t knock Rebel’s Romance. He’s seven, he’s won his last two in Group 2 company, and he’s won over £10 million in prize money. He’s performed all over the world and is just a very likeable horse proven at the top level. You can pretty much guarantee he’s going to run to his mark, so if we’re going to beat him, we’re going to have to run to our best.
 
A target race for runners coming the Ascot King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes that might not be so well known is the Sha Tin Hong Kong Cup Flat Stakes 1m 2f Group1 in Dec.
I have 6 runners have gone from the Ascot George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes to the following Sha Tin Hong Kong Cup Flat Stakes and 2 have won (33.3%) and 5 have won or placed (83.3%), the last winner was in 2003 but the last one that placed in Hong Kong Cup was in 2023.
 
It was a muddling race, and the tactics of Coolmore were baffling to say the least, it made no sense to me.
The money horse Calandagan won the prize, but overall I was disappointed with the race, and how it was ran.
 
Don't forget what O'brian said earlier and i agreed before he said it LOS ANGELES where ever that goes the rest in stable will need go elsewhere.
So he will still have believe if ground not to soft then this is his arc horse or at least his best horse.
 
A target race for runners coming the Ascot King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes that might not be so well known is the Sha Tin Hong Kong Cup Flat Stakes 1m 2f Group1 in Dec.
I have 6 runners have gone from the Ascot George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes to the following Sha Tin Hong Kong Cup Flat Stakes and 2 have won (33.3%) and 5 have won or placed (83.3%), the last winner was in 2003 but the last one that placed in Hong Kong Cup was in 2023.
Good piece of research pawras pawras
 
A target race for runners coming the Ascot King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes that might not be so well known is the Sha Tin Hong Kong Cup Flat Stakes 1m 2f Group1 in Dec.
I have 6 runners have gone from the Ascot George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes to the following Sha Tin Hong Kong Cup Flat Stakes and 2 have won (33.3%) and 5 have won or placed (83.3%), the last winner was in 2003 but the last one that placed in Hong Kong Cup was in 2023.

Which I find interesting cos having cross referenced the UK/IRE/FRA races pattern races against those in Hong Kong, most don't do well in the Hong Kong Cup, e.g. runners going from the Ascot Prince Of Wales Flat Stakes don't do well even for places where as those going from the King George VI have had good place results as quoted.
 
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