VDW Just a few thoughts VDW or otherwise.

[Chesham]

Lee was good a spotting weight being used to condition a horse and then dropped in Class and Weight to collect

Top Dirham was a successful selection for Lee 19/07/04

Top Dirham & Vicious Warrior had met a few races before, but their prepartion for the 19/07/04 race was different TD was dropping in class and carried 11 Lbs less than his last race, where as Vicious Warrior was dropping class also but carrying 17 lbs more than his LTO Run

mtoto I think that is all I can say on the concept of weight and VDW so will leave you to continue your Blog, having enjoyed taking part in the races that you selected at Aintree and posting my views on those races. At least we got to exchange views on those races before they were run.

VDW
Many things were conveyed in such a way that most readers passed over them considering them of little importance although in fact they were. I have never written anything just for the sake of it. Everything has had a relevance and many times I have suggested they read what was said

Back to the Threads that I normally participate in on this Forum

 

[Sigster]

I first came across the VDW conundrum a good few years ago through the letters pages of the Weekender. Barely a week would go by without two or three letters in print, each arguing for their own interpretation of something he had said or some example he had used. It never inspired me to read up, but it introduced me to his work and his theories around horse racing and backing horses. As a systemite I am equally amused and intrigued at such passionate debate, though this is the first time I have seen someone admit defeat in a VDW thread. I suppose the part that intrigues me(again I state, without having read any of his works) is how so many different people are able to interpret his thoughts in so many different ways. From what I have seen it seems rare to find many different people agreeing on all things VDW. Maybe he was cleverer than he's given credit for!

I am following this with much interest tho, and it seems I'm not the only one!

 

[mtoto]

Lee said explain the Braashee and Cossack guard weight turn around and you have have cracked it.

Paul,

I can't find my copy of the the post from Lee you mention, but I do remember reading it and I'm sure I asked Lee if he could explain. As Cossack Guard had the weights revised in his favour I assumed I had misunderstood the post and Lee was suggesting other factors were out weighing the the weight turn around.
However reading your post you seem to be taking the opposite view, could you explain your reasoning when you say weight can effect class? In the real world if a horse is raised in class in hcps it usually carries less weight. My understanding is the higher the class the faster the race (on average) faster the race more energy used. So why does carrying less weight become an advantage big enough to cancel out the faster pace? Sure there are a few horse that break the class barriers I can't argue that but there are more that can't even with less weight. Personally I have found sprinters find it easier to break the barriers, that is one of the reasons I don't work/back in sprints, I don't believe class is a major factor in these race speed rules here (for me).

Sigster,
though this is the first time I have seen someone admit defeat in a VDW thread.

I'm not sure who you think is admitting defeat but I don't think for one moment Chesham is saying his understanding on VDW is wrong and I certainly don't think I have it wrong. I think Chesham is saying he is giving up on me not VDW. I do like the quote he finished with it is one that has been said tome many times. Have to say I agree with it 100% but I would have added don't go adding bits in. Personally I also believe didn't say anything just for the sake of it, I think bits have been added to muddy the waters but I'm still not convinced that is down to VDW, I do believe if VDW really thought weight was important it would have been mentioned when he was showing us how to assess form in SIAO and/or when discussing the Roushayd example.

Chesham,

At least we got to exchange views on those races before they were run.

I hope we can continue to do so in the future, I'm more than happy to hear other folks views on the selected races.

Be Lucky

 

[formtheory]

Hi Mtoto!

I feel it has to do with how V.D.W saw form differently from others.

Most would have thought Cossack Guard would have turned around the form with Braashee due to the weight change.

I think V.D.W had a set idea of weight/class/form etc... trying to understand it myself!

Take care
Paul.

 

[Chesham]

In the above VDW is using the Weight Aspect one carrying less and the other carrying more which adds to the prospect that PK is a good bet



In the above example there were other reasons that VDW gave not to bet in the race but references weight with regards to two of the participants.
VDW
Many things were conveyed in such a way that most readers passed over them considering them of little importance although in fact they were. I have never written anything just for the sake of it. Everything has had a relevance and many times I have suggested they read what was said

Formtheory from an earlier post that I made on this thread

First thing, you may have notcied in some posts that I mention Class Ceilings, so yes I think weight and class are very much a marriage. Racing within their class some horses are big creatures compared to their counterparts and have no problem carring big weights providing they are within their Class Ceiling

Braashee

Note the breeding Angle A C Stewart (Trainer had trained Ghariba out of the same dam, winning a grp 3. The Breeder used Sadlers Wells the dam for Braashee, a Sire with a better stamina Progeny

Now onto the Form of Braashee

Won a maiden 8/13 Fav Carried 8-11 and then pushed up in class where he met Cossack Gaurd on Level Weights, this was the first time that the Official Handicapper had chance to see if he had got his mark correct, remember that the Official Handicapper only had maiden form and the average OR of winners of previous type maiden races at that course etc
Cossack Gaurd was dropping in class from 0-115 to 0-110 and up in weight, but level with Braashee

VDW What the horse does at the 2f from home marker
Held up, headway over 2f out, led over 1f out, pushed out

Indicates that Braashee was having to close the Gap and took over as pace leader 1f from home (Note having an easy lead from the front, effort was needed to get to the lead, pushed out also indicates that the horse was not suffering from a build up of lactic acid for the effort and could have more in the locker.

3rd straight, led over 3f out until over 1f out, ran on well

indicates that CG was already in the lead at the 3 F marker and held that lead until passed by Braashee 1 F out, the energy reserves had run out and managed to run on behind Braashee but not enough energy to mount a challenge.
To me Coassack Guard was unable to beat Braashee in a lower class ceiling so why would he turn the form around in a higher class ceiling at Ascot. even with a weight advantage. The higher the class the more sustained pace there usually is within the race, no hiding place to get a breather in before making the effort to maintain the pace for a long as possible, remembering that all horses are slowing down over the final furlong, some less than others.

 

[mtoto]

To me Coassack Guard was unable to beat Braashee in a lower class ceiling so why would he turn the form around in a higher class ceiling at Ascot. even with a weight advantage. The higher the class the more sustained pace there usually is within the race, no hiding place to get a breather in before making the effort to maintain the pace for a long as possible, remembering that all horses are slowing down over the final furlong, some less than others.

Chesham,

We seem to be agreeing on something as I wrote the following to Paul... My understanding is the higher the class the faster the race (on average) faster the race more energy used. So why does carrying less weight become an advantage big enough to cancel out the faster pace?

My reasoning is in many/most cases the weight difference will not out weigh any weight reversals so how can weight effect the class. In this case the weight change wasn't that big would you have still taken the same stance if the difference would have been say 10lbs? I would even though the 2nd race was a furlong and a half shorter.

Be Lucky

 

[Chesham]

The thing to remember with Braashee is that he was going from winning 3 Y-O Handicap to a 4 Y-O+ Handicap at Ascot (Small Print on The Ticket) and had the weight for age in his favour. If you notice I mentioned the successful Progeny of Braashees Dam, once you have a benchmark out of the Dam and the Horse demonstrates that potential on the race course then you have a horse who is yet to mature into his full potential






Braashee was her 2nd offspring The 3rd, a Colt by the same sire as Braashee was purchased a yearling for 300,000 Gns

 

[mick]

Cheshams earlier reference to the vdw preference for weight from the body as opposed to lead in the saddle brought back many memory's as years ago this topic was mentioned far more so than these days.While i would agree that dead weight increases the burden it often presents an additional dilemma as generally i view the booking of a decent 5 or 3lb claimer as a positive but this often results in plenty of same.The RP shows min weight for jockeys during the past year but i feel its a shame that more accurate and up to date info on this is not supplied.

"Heavy" claimers and senior jockeys could be viewed as a positive towards the top of the weights.One for you stats guys to investigate.?

It does not seem that long ago that flat hcaps were being won with horses carrying 7-7 and the racing press were saying "This one has an impossible task under the burden of 8-11".!

 

[mtoto]

Pont 4:15 1 Gunner Lindley 2 Zip Wire 3 Centurius.

From my point of view this race has very little going for it. This is the sort of race I look at thinking prep? If like in this I can't really see anything that is good enough to prep for something. I work on the theory someone is looking to pick up a cheap class two and this is the level to do it.

There are a couple of well known horses running but to date haven't shown the standard of form I would expect/look for to win even a weak class two. There is a problem as there is only one horse running that does have the form, in fact it has proven form in slightly higher class. The problem is it looks as if this horse was brought to be a "jumper". it has gone to a trainer who is not a big name (not to me anyway) This trainer has only raced this horse once on the flat and that was in a class2 a/w race but the run tells me nothing as he was hampered at the start. Looking at some of this horses flat form in Ireland he seems to have been quite well thought of judging by some of the races he ran in. Is this a horse that they think will/should be a jumper and they have got it wrong? If he was trained by someone different I think he would be a shorter price and I'm seriously thinking about have fiver on him just in case this is his Derby.

Be Lucky

 

[Pingman]

Mtoto,

Hi its funny that while waiting this morning to go in to a factory I looked at this and came up with Amrala trained by Channon, on the fact that last year he ran better class than this. I did try to get on a W H Hills at daft o clock this morning but the web site was down so have left it, thinking it was an omen not to bet!

Next best was Centurius but I have fond memories of Ponte and always try to find a bet but today I shall just listen on the radio.

Good luck always find this thread great reading

 

[Chesham]

Hi Mtoto

Fahy has won this race 4 times in the past and 2/2 with Fillies

Today has Las Verglass Star who was in the race last year finished 3rd, BHA 88 and Carried 8-11 (Today BHA 84 & Carries 8-8)

His other Entry is promising as this one is a Filly, Romantic Setting who ran a good race, finishing 2nd in a Grp 3 at York last year against Libre Nauticus who next time out was 4th in the 1000gns.

Richard Fahy also trained a horse out of the same dam = Miss Work of Art who won a Listed race. Romantic Setting also has a Full Sister called Entangle who won a Grp 3 among other races in Scandinavia. Looks to have potential to improve and is EW able

 

[dicko14]

Think this race is a 50/50 race. How the race is run is as important in this race as the form of the horses.
Will listen with interest.

 

[dicko14]

Lee and Tudhope made the race theirs by forcing the pace and not many got into the race.
I feel Pontefract is a course suited to an enterprising ride.

 

[Chesham]

Hi dicko14

Having watched the race live I think you are spot on, Willie Carson once said that you can give weight but not ground when the going is Soft or worse. The Jockeys were saying earlier that ground was really sticky.

 

[mtoto]

Lee and Tudhope made the race theirs by forcing the pace and not many got into the race.
I feel Pontefract is a course suited to an enterprising ride.

Dicko, Chesham,

Have to say I agree 100% and did expect the horse to be ridden much closer to the pace. After watching the stables runner in the previous race I was very surprised to see him that far back. As the horse has front run in the past I can only assume the jockey rode to instructions and have to say I found that a little confusing as I thought the short run in would have suited him front running.

I always try to scrutinies my bets after a run as well as before placing the bets. Looking at the race now it does look as if that race was treated as a prep race, but at the moment I can't work out for what, or when. I'm always more than happy for folk to chip in before a race, that gives a different perspective to a race that I may not have seen. I hesitate to put into writing my thoughts after a race as when I get it badly wrong and can't/didn't foresee a problem it could sound like sour grapes. When I'm right it could look as if I'm blowing my own trumpet.

Be Lucky

 

[dicko14]

mtoto
Nobody on here would think adversely if you posted your thoughts post race. Indeed I for one think you should. After all isn't that what race readers get paid to do? There's lots we all can learn from post race analysis. There wouldn't be form books otherwise.

 

[mick]

I hesitate to put into writing my thoughts after a race as when I get it badly wrong and can't/didn't foresee a problem it could sound like sour grapes. When I'm right it could look as if I'm blowing my own trumpet.

Be Lucky

I feel that conducting (and sharing) post mortems is a positive thing win or lose.By reinforcing what we did right or identifying a mistake or something missed we could /can all learn from each other.Constructive after timing backed up via sound reasoning can be a positive exercise.

When one of my bets loses i first blame myself and look for errors in my judgement.If found these negatives can then be used in a positive way in the future.Sometimes i cannot "see" my mistake and have to conclude that given the same circumstances i would still make the bet.This is when the input from others can prove most helpful.

 

[mtoto]

Nott 4:10 1 High Jinx 2 Mighty Yar 3 Flying Officer.

Nothing here for me due mainly to the prices being foo short.

Actually I think this race is or could be very tricky as most of the principals are also entered in the Yorkshire cup so is this a prep? Only two are form horse in my opinion, one of these has proven form in higher class than this, High Jinx but he is having its first run since being gelded. In the past he has needed a couple of races to find his best form. The other form horse is Biographer but he seems to do best on stiffer courses can't see this or York playing to his strengths. Neither of these two form horses meet the consistency requirements, if pushed I would have to favour High Jinx. There are also at least two other horses that are being touted on their potential, and an unexposed horse who was 2nd in this race last season.

Edited to eliminate today's deliberate mistake the Yorkshire Cup is run at York not Doncaster

Be Lucky

 

[mick]

Hi mtoto RE your thoughts on High jinx.Although not on a seasonal depute he does have a good piece of form after a long absence 13/09/13. I note they are also dropping him in distance which in this instance and on soft might prove beneficial another positive co incidence being that R Moore is back up (last jock to win on him and missing for the past 8 rides).Not a race i would bet in anyway,and i have to agree with your comment that the fiddlers have well stitched up the front of the market.

 

[mtoto]

Newb 3:40 1 Exchequer 2 Muwaary 3 Zarwaan
Ayr 3:50 1 Viva Colonia 2 Tahiti Pearl 3 Bless The Wings
Ayr 4:55 1 Mickie 2 Bull And Bush 3 Romantic Fashion.

The prices in the 3:40 and 4:55 make them no bet races for me.

3:50 On the face of it both Viva Colonia and Bless The Wings have proven form in higher
class than this. I think Viva Colonia's last race was the intended target so he should be
fit and ready to go for this . Also notice there has been a jockey change and the usual
jockey is at the meeting but not riding for the stable?? The course going and distance all
look ok. Much the same can/could be said for Bless The Wings re conditions and he has to
be respected, however I do think he is slightly flattered by his class rating.Tahiti Pearl
looks out classed here, but it should be noted he was aimed at the same race as Viva
Colonia at Aintree, and that also looks as if was targeted. I don't think this course
will play to his strengths but after some thought I'm giving the race a miss.

Be Lucky