VDW Just a few thoughts VDW or otherwise.

[mick]

. If he did ever get 80% winners then he would need to know which bets to swerve, even though the class/Form Horse had been identified.

Well said and worthy of its own thread.What are the right or wrong reasons to swerve a possible bet which on first or even second appraisal appears to have a lot going for it.I have come to trust what my own ratings are telling me on balance but suspect that i use this to best effect when to me they are saying that a horse should not win.

 

[dicko14]

Hey Big Spender last Sunday at Ascot.
I know it might be deemed after timing but wasn't he the best horse in the race. Always there or there abouts in the major races but his ability to lump weight in handicaps against lower rated class animals has never been in doubt.
The price would have ruled him out of the first 5 in the betting but his record in these type of races speaks for itself.

 

[mick]

Hi dicko i think you make a very valid point RE weight carrying ability.I find that a lot of my top rates are towards the top of the hcap .In your above example the racecourse evidence to support weight carrying ability was there,but so often this is not so.I subscribe to RI and i have previously asked them if their on course race readers could comment more often on the comparative physical size and development of horses as this would prove most helpful.No improvement as yet but we live in hope.!

 

[Chesham]

Hi Dicko

The Ascot Race was restricted to 10 Y-o Plus so a good race for the trainer to place HBS in, as there were no unexposed types. I think this was what VDW meant when he said read the small print on the ticket as Wing And A Prayer was advantaged by the Small Print on the ticket.

You will sometimes see 4 y-O's pitched in 3 y o handicaps where they can carry 10 st against a improving 3 y-0 and then get dropped to races where they are restricted to 4 y- o Plus and there actual physical weight is then usually a lot less.

The Claiming Race Method starts with the Small Print as this tells you how much value the Trainer is putting on the horse and this can be compared for what he paid for him. how Much weight he gives against the Offical Rating gives a clue as to how seriously he wants to win with the horse.

Some horse like to dominate in races with a small number of runners others like to stalk in races of many runners. some horse on the Flat run better with a bend (The Bend may also need to go in one direction) Put them on a straight track and they lose. Some time back Walter and myself were following a Female Apprentice Jockey who was crap when riding on any course with a bend but when given a horse with a decent chance where she could race on the outside on a staright track, had a very good strike rate.

 

[Chesham]

Hi dicko i think you make a very valid point RE weight carrying ability.I find that a lot of my top rates are towards the top of the hcap .In your above example the racecourse evidence to support weight carrying ability was there,but so often this is not so.I subscribe to RI and i have previously asked them if their on course race readers could comment more often on the comparative physical size and development of horses as this would prove most helpful.No improvement as yet but we live in hope.!

Hi Mick

Timeform usually give a physical description of the horse, usually at the start of their career which can be useful as some will take time to fill their frame and will make better three y-o and 4 y o types.

 

[mick]

Hi Dicko

The Ascot Race was restricted to 10 Y-o Plus so a good race for the trainer to place HBS in, as there were no unexposed types. I think this was what VDW meant when he said read the small print on the ticket as Wing And A Prayer was advantaged by the Small Print on the ticket.

You will sometimes see 4 y-O's pitched in 3 y o handicaps where they can carry 10 st against a improving 3 y-0 and then get dropped to races where they are restricted to 4 y- o Plus and there actual physical weight is then usually a lot less.

The Claiming Race Method starts with the Small Print as this tells you how much value the Trainer is putting on the horse and this can be compared for what he paid for him. how Much weight he gives against the Offical Rating gives a clue as to how seriously he wants to win with the horse.

Some horse like to dominate in races with a small number of runners others like to stalk in races of many runners. some horse on the Flat run better with a bend (The Bend may also need to go in one direction) Put them on a straight track and they lose. Some time back Walter and myself were following a Female Apprentice Jockey who was crap when riding on any course with a bend but when given a horse with a decent chance where she could race on the outside on a staright track, had a very good strike rate.

Great post and something which is always time well spent.Another small print positive being that in some races a recent winner will incur a smaller penalty than a comparative race elsewhere.The best trainers will also be looking for advantageous small print.

 

[mtoto]

Aintree 1:30 1 Lac Fontana 2 Kayf Moss 3 Sea Lord
Aintree 3:20 1 Johns Spirit 2 Tranquil Sea 3 Duke Of Lucca
Aintree 4:15 1 Long Run 2 Tidal Bay 3 Rocky Creek

Family duties call so I haven't had time sort anything out.

This family thing was at very short notice but I will get back to explain my thinking, and ask a few questions re Chesham' s approach/ideas. One thing that does slightly puzzle me is how long does it take to short out the different approach when looking at different races, and which set of stats to use? The chart Chesham posted for the first race yesterday may be quite simple but it still looked complicated to me. I suppose folk who use these charts know what they are looking at it took me quite awhile to sort out in my mind what it showed. Also I'm not at all sure about what facts were profiled in making that chart Can't see that it would have been the same as the one shown the day before.

Be Lucky

 

[Chesham]

Hi @ mtoto

The Chart for the Top Novices took a few minutes to profile. With the better class races that you like there is usually a Trend Button. If you click that it brings up all the past winners. At the Top is a button called Query,




click that and Chose V4 Beta this brings up the system builder that is already set for this race.



If you are Profiling a big race you need to choose criteria that makes sense, so in this case I look at the Highest Class win that past winners of the race have won, prior to contesting the race in question.

With a big race you would not expect the horse to have had many runs in a 90 day period, so again useful filter. (I think VDW mentioned that the better horses were not over raced) Next see the lay off period between their last race and the race in question. It seems that 11 to 45 days is acceptable. Next look at the Tracks where the horse last ran




In yesterdays race it narrowed the race down to 3 horses, and if you look at the past recent trends it has narrowed the race down for every past winner, including yesterdays winner



you could look in more depth with the system builder, one area is to see if any of the 3 horses that were left have Trainers who have won the race before. Henderson had won the race 3 times before. Using the system builder you can check which LTO Race the winners came from with regards Henderson and 3 out of the 5 past winners that Henderson had won with came from the Cheltenham Supreme Novice Hurdle.

Josses Hill came from the Supreme Novice Hurdle. So in Future years it might be something to consider if Henderson has a runner in the race along with the above criteria as he has now won 4/6 of the Aintree Novice Race above

 

[mtoto]

Chesham,

Thanks for the break down and explanation, I understand the logic behind the last example. Have to say I came up with two of the three the stats put forward and look at the form I would still have taken Amore Alto as the bet of those three as well. However like the last two running's of the race I couldn't have backed the winner although they all showed in the top three in my ratings, I wouldn't back any horse to win at those prices!

Doctor Harper I find harder to understand even though you have explained how easy it is to profile a a race. The main problem for me is out of the eleven races I worked on for this meeting only three winners didn't register on my d/base and Doctor Harper was one of them. Even now looking at the criteria I use I can't get him into the equation. That is even if I used BB s/f although here I would say BB's figures agreed with the figures I use and that would have been the form used as I don't have the last s/f from Sandown, even if it was better than that figure it wouldn't have been strong enough to lift him into the rankings.

Right or wrong I firmly believe form is what the horse does on the track and stats betting markets etc cannot alter that, no matter how strong the stats and or market. For me the market only shows other peoples view of the facts/form and as I have no way on knowing what that is based on it doesn't come into the equation. Its my money and I use or try to use my knowledge/logic on how its spent. If I lose I its because I have read the form wrong or something unforeseen (by me) has happened. Sure at times I get beaten by stats but there must also be times I find winners the stats miss and these are usually at good prices. To be honest I do wish I had a mind that could grasp/relate to reams of figures charts etc. I do know even if I did, form and how I understand and look at it would overrule any list.

Re VDW I am now firmly of the belief most if not all base their understanding of VDW with a tinted belief VDW had a leaning to the readers understanding of racing. Fulham is firmly of the belief s/f have no part in VDW methods because Fulham doesn't trust s/f. You a great and clever profiler read plenty into what for me are very brief mentions of stats and pedigrees. I who had thought for a long time weight is over rated and used in many cases as quick easy excuse for a defeat, jump on the fact VDW "forgets" to mention weight when his says what to look for when assessing form, the same chap that says ignore weight carried on the day when using s/f. Others look for hard and fast rules written in stone and for me I can't find any, I don't think I can find a "guideline" that hasn't been broken at some time by VDW himself. Some use this to say its a fraud/scam I just think it means think on your feet and use your head there are no rules.

Be Lucky

 

[dicko14]

mtoto
1. Court Minstrel 16/1 winner


7. Entertain Me 22/1 winner


6. Samingarry 5/2 winner

How many of those three would have been found on form reading alone?

 

[mick]

, I don't think I can find a "guideline" that hasn't been broken at some time by VDW himself. Some use this to say its a fraud/scam I just think it means think on your feet and use your head there are no rules.

Be Lucky

I think this is well said and also the reason why VDW received a lot of uncalled for stick.I don't feel there are any easy quick fix options if your objective is worthwhile long term gains.Its been a long time since i last re read vdw but did he not often mention that balancing all the factors was very important.His apparent contradictions may often have been as a result of this as every race presents a one off unique contest never to be repeated and therefore the factors often have to be balanced in different ways.?

 

[Chesham]

Chesham,


Doctor Harper I find harder to understand even though you have explained how easy it is to profile a a race. The main problem for me is out of the eleven races I worked on for this meeting only three winners didn't register on my d/base and Doctor Harper was one of them. Even now looking at the criteria I use I can't get him into the equation. That is even if I used BB s/f although here I would say BB's figures agreed with the figures I use and that would have been the form used as I don't have the last s/f from Sandown, even if it was better than that figure it wouldn't have been strong enough to lift him into the rankings.

With Regards to this race I would ask how many of the Previous Winners registered on your data base, for the race where Doctor Harper won. The other four who came from Sandown may also have not registered, if they are Novices then they are still on the up.

Right or wrong I firmly believe form is what the horse does on the track and stats betting markets etc cannot alter that

Timeforms view of Doctor Harpers Last Race: This is traditionally a very strong race of its type, full of unexposed sorts. Doctor Harper Carried Top Weight and gave one stone to the winner. The Race was a £60,000 and it was Doctor Harpers first run in a Handicap after winning a £9,000 Maiden Hurdle, to me that has a run of good Form coming into a £50,000 Hurdle race carrying 9 lbs less. Busty Brown was coming from a Non Handicap and the Race was worth £20,000.

I who had thought for a long time weight is over rated and used in many cases as quick easy excuse for a defeat, jump on the fact VDW "forgets" to mention weight when his says what to look for when assessing form,

If you look at the first example weight is linked to the form, he says checking the form that Prominent King was coming out of Handicap Company (Small Print On The Ticket in the Erin, has him more favourably weighted coming into his next race)



Later he mentions twice that weight is a great leveller, but also note that he make reference again to Wing And A Prayer, because Wing And A Prayer was advantaged by the small print own the ticket i.e. Weight for age.






There you have it three VDW references to weight.




Be Lucky

Hi mtoto I have responded in between some of the points that you raise. You will need to click expand. mick has summed up well that each race is different.

 

[mtoto]

With Regards to this race I would ask how many of the Previous Winners registered on your data base, for the race where Doctor Harper won. The other four who came from Sandown may also have not registered, if they are Novices then they are still on the up.

Chesham,

To answer that I have rely on memory as the data base is re refreshed every year and on form registers is not older than two years. My personal record only records profit and loss on actual bets made.

You may have noticed this year the winner of the race was on the d/base as I mentioned him on my blog. Looking at the results you put up I know Many Clouds register because he was a bet. I have many novices and even winners as low as class 4/5 races so if a horse doesn't register for me, to-date it hasn't produced the standard form I'm looking for.

Re the race on Thursday my top ten rated where

Busty Brown *
Jetson*
Meister Eckhart*
Kaylif Aramis
On The Bridge*
Doctor Harper**
Cantlow**
Carole's Destrier
Return Spring*
Crowning Jewel*

* = proven form in higher class
** = not registered on d/base
All the others are horses with required standard of form.

I study the top few in my ratings but looking at the template I can see everything I think is important Meister Eckhart was my main bet but as Busty Brown was top rated and looked as if he had been prepped for this he couldn't be ignored. The fact he was trained in Ireland didn't come into the equation at any time for me and if I'm 100% honest still wouldn't. Hindsight is a wonderful thing, and I do wonder if I was swad by the hype and I could see the plot and as I wasn't happy Jetson would be a successful saver I went with Busty.

Re Vdw I don't know what else to say as we are never going to agree. I ignore weight I don't look at it in any stage of my working/thinking. When My ratings come up with the top weight or highest OR I'm more than pleased as I have found the same horse as the official handicapper and I'm coming at it from a different angle. If it was costing me money I would then have to think about my logic but in the long run it isn't.

Dicko

How many of those three would have been found on form reading alone.

Not quite sure why you asked that question as I have never said I rely on form reading alone. I find the best horses based on my idea of measuring ability and then the form reading comes into play.

I can't comment on the last two horse you mention but Court Minstrel for me is a clear cut prospect of good form reading. Right time of the year best figures in a class 2 winner of a class 1 trainer talking about champion hurdle last season. To close to the Scottish champion hurdle to be just a prep, short of running round waving a flag more than enough clues.

Be Lucky

 

[Chesham]

Hi mtoto

Re Your Comment

Re Vdw I don't know what else to say as we are never going to agree. I ignore weight I don't look at it in any stage of my working/thinking. When My ratings come up with the top weight or highest OR I'm more than pleased as I have found the same horse as the official handicapper and I'm coming at it from a different angle. If it was costing me money I would then have to think about my logic but in the long run it isn't.

Why do you ignore the advice below, it makes no sense to me as you are quite pedantic about other aspects of VDW. You could well have identified the Class/Form horse in the race, but VDW is saying that the horse is not weighted to win the day will not be yours. It is not me that you are disagreeing with when you say " I ignore weight I don't look at it in any stage of my working/thinking." It is VDW who you are never going to agree with. You seem to be concentrating on the Class & Form part of the VDW Platform, but ignoring the Capability part of that Platform





When you say If it was costing me money I would then have to think about my logic but in the long run it isn't.

It is costing you money, for every stake saved it increases your profits, as I pointed out Pre Race with Champion Court and the weight aspect, if it had been in a race with 7 runners he may have got away with the weight by being able to dictate the pace, but that was not going to happen in the Aintree Race.

 

[mtoto]

You seem to be concentrating on the Class & Form part of the VDW Platform, but ignoring the Capability part of that Platform.

I have explained I started by reading systematic Betting and I still can't find anywhere in that book where weight is mentioned as a factor in reading/using form or for that matter as any part of the method. As you know chapter five is dedicated to form and class and he even goes into explaining how course type can effect form no mention of weight. He later goes into detail assessing the form in races Roushayd leading up to the Old Newton even here there is no mention of weight even in the hcps. Although a couple of times lack of pace/speed in some of these races.

In chapter six he then explains how the method can be used for NH races. again no mention of weight even where weight would/could be expected to make a bigger difference to the form due to the longer distances being covered. In this chapter he uses s/f and it is obvious he didn't adjust for weight carried I seem to remember checking and the figures quoted were the figures in the form book. Even back then it did cross my mind why use figures adjusted to 9st/12st and not adjust them for weight carried. There I came to the conclusion that was because they were the ones that were readily available.

I was quite surprised on joining forums folk kept saying this couldn't win because of the weight. Apart from pointing out PK had a 17lb advantage over a horse that beat him last time out I still can't see in TGY's weight being mentioned in more than general terms. Weight is a great leveler fair enough but nowhere is it even suggested less weight will/can improve a horses chances, or improve its form. When I read the piece about INDIVIDUAL weight limits I have to admit I had to laugh and assumed it must be a Peach idea. Just because a horse can carry 9st in a class 3 race doesn't mean it can carry it in a higher class race . For me capability is measuring a horses chances of reproducing its form under these conditions in this class.

Re Canny Danny I can't argue VDW is suggesting the weight difference is the problem although it wouldn't affect me today and I would have major concerns about the distance and the hard race last time out and how recent that hard race was.

Be Lucky

 

[Chesham]

Hi mtoto

I am glad that you mention Systematic Betting and if you think that weight is not mentioned in that book, then I suggest that you turn to the page where Abathatc example is covered. VDW starts by discussing his 1987 Season and then commences with his 1988 season where he started off by winning, then pushed up in class and VDW says to note that he had picked up a 5 lbs Penalty when coming into this race. Albert Henry Won This Race.

(In the above race Abathc is carrying 9st)

VDW then says that Abathatc is dropped in class having marked his card in the race won by Albert Henry and that we should note that his previous Conqueror (Albert Henry) was also in this race too, but had picked up a 7 Lbs Penalty, for winning, when beating Abathatc.

(Despite dropping in class Abthatc is now only carrying 7-12, 16 lbs less physical weight than LTO, where as Albert Henry is carrying 4 lbs more physical weight, this is probably the example that Lee cottoned onto)

If that is not clear that VDW is factoring weight when analysing a race then what is.

Perhaps you don't want to accept that weight needs to be factored in as that would turn your long standing position on VDW upside down, but from the booklet that you mentioned I have given you another example of weight being a factor.

 

[mick]

A most interesting discussion gentlemen.Setting aside the vdw intentions what i have found RE weight in hcaps is that given similar racing conditions there are just to many occasions when pounds and lengths do work out precisely for myself to feel able to bet against this.Most of my bets come from the top of the hcap and i feel that class is more important than weight but in these circumstances part of my interruption of capability would be has the horse also shown that it can run well under a large physical weight.There is evidence to suggest that this is why some will lose when dropped in grade.It is not that they are unable to give weight from an advantageous rating perspective but rather that they are "self " disadvantaged via carrying the weight.? With some horses this might be down to physical size with others possibly their own preference, mind set or attitude under the circumstances.?

By having the confidence to ignore weight and use non hcap form in hcap races i genuinely believe that mtoto gives himself a market edge.Likewise those who use stats to find a bet as opposed to supporting one. Neither works for myself but this does not prevent me from appreciating (or constantly questioning my own negative thoughts concerning both) This is how we learn and improve.?

 

[mtoto]

(Despite dropping in class Abthatc is now only carrying 7-12, 16 lbs less physical weight than LTO, where as Albert Henry is carrying 4 lbs more physical weight, this is probably the example that Lee cottoned onto)

Chesham,

I'm afraid to say you have me beat and I must be looking at the wrong notes/race. I have Abthatc carrying 16lbs less but I have Albert Henry also carrying less weight, 8/9lbs I think (notes a little old and tattered) anyway enough to suggest Albert Henry would go very close to confirming the form. I read this as an example of the class rating being the important aspect of the example with the less weight element being a bonus. I no longer have this form book but I taking it that in winning the Sandown race Albert Henry didn't meet the required s/f of 80 so wouldn't be a possible selection.

Be Lucky

 

[Chesham]

Hi mtoto

I have checked the figures again and Albert Henry did carry 8 Lbs Less and Abathatc 16 lbs from their last meeting, the point is that VDW takes the trouble to Mention the Penalty Aspects in relation to their first and 2nd races against each other.

PK he mentions weight
Canny Danny He Mentions weight a great leveller and that Wing And A Prayer is the opposite where he is favoured by the weight.

He mentions weight again where trainers leave a higher weighted horse in the race to treat the stables other runner more favourably. Again mentions weight.

 

[formtheory]

Hi all,

Lee said explain the Braashee and Cossack guard weight turn around and you have have cracked it.

I feel weight is tied in with class movement and other factors.

Interesting conversation.

Paul.