VDW Just a few thoughts VDW or otherwise.

[Chesham]

Hi @ mtoto




I have tried to Breakdown some of the Questions that you have raised and put those Questions from you in Italics


But first lets look at the questions which motivated VDW to send his letter in to start the ball rolling





Those question are still relevant today as they were then and everyone that I see posting their selections up on this Forum are in their own way attempting to answer those questions. VDW also gave various ideas on how to look for those answers when analysing a race.

One of his first ideas was that Consistent Horses who are in the First 5 or 6 of the Betting Forecast wi their fair share of races


I do find it hard to accept anyone would compare the basic stats VDW used to the amount of stats being presented today. While I agree he did use very basic stats they had to be basic as he didn’t have the software. I also accept he may well have used SOME of them if they had be available however I do think form reading was more important to him than stats.


VDW used % Stats first to identify areas where in his opinion Winners were likely to Come from



Note that VDW says His own Extensive Surveys This indicates to me that it was not just back of the Fag Packet research. Why would he bother to undertake extensive research if his Form Reading was all he needed.




Again VDW is again saying that each element was selected after a great deal of research

As far as I can see what is the difference between the research that many of us undertake and that which VDW Undertook, we are just looking for those elements that will put the odds in our favour. For instance today @ bluechariot started off from a Stats basis and that the odds appeared to be in favour of the Trainers Record in Claiming Races. That is the starting point for him to look further. Then he states that on Form his selection has nothing to fear from the next contender. They finished in the order he suggested. Form Study is still apparent but he has the odds in his favour too.

In the past I think you have indicated that the Trainer does not really influence your thinking that much. Yet VDW Suggested the following



These days with products like HRB it is easier to research Trainers very quickly. You will often see @ mlmrob post that a certain Trainer is using his go to Jockey today, he will also mention the horses back form too.


In the above VDW States that one particular Method of his, has its Roots in Breeding and Training Techniques

Clearly there are many strings to VDW's Bow and he was very much into researching things for himself, which is no different to the various threads where research discussion is taking place.

I don't think any of us have discovered reading Form in any new way, just the that we have more research facilities available to us, to push the odds in our favour.

Personally looking at the selections made on the Inner sanctum, I don't see any sign of Paralysis by Analysis, in fact the exact opposite. I have seen more people say on VDW Forums state after analysing a race for hours, that they will not be backing. I suspect that is because they are paralysed by the fear of not achieving the 80% Strike rate that VDW said was possible and if they failed to achieve that, VDW was dining in their ears that they should look at their Study of Form. To me that is paralysis by analysis

Re To be honest I do read this chaps posts and like yours find then very interesting, when I understand them. But like yours I can’t always find the starting point as often it/they appear to be stats based. So can I ask do you both use the class sheets as a starting point and which set of ratings?

The starting point at arriving at a Selection is varied. I look at the Sheets on the Inner Sanctum, starting with the Class ratings, I can cross reference with @ mlmrob Sheet, @ TheBluesBrother Speed figures are in Race Order thanks to @ pika and are on the same scale as the BHA Ratings as weight is factored in when they are compiled. There is other information that might be useful is t his sheet. For instances the current state of the Racing Yards do they seem out of sorts, is the best Jockey on Board to maximise the horses chances of success, you can have the best horse in the race but if a dumb Jockey rides him badly then the day will not be yours. VDW said that the majority of winners come from the short end of the Betting Market and again you can see if the stats for Trainer/Jockey are good in terms of Actual Against expected (A/E). It is alright having a Trainer/ Jockey with a 50% Strike rate when favourite but useless if they are over bet. @ Horseplayer also has Speed Figures and these do not have weight Factored in at any point, so although they are Speed Ratings they are compiled differently and are a good comparison or stand alone in their own right.

@ ardnehue is experimenting with pulling all the various ratings together in one sheet and researching the areas of combined strength.

Sometimes a system alerts that I have previously set up with HRB can be a starting point for further study and again I will consult the above sheets and also the Timeform Data Base and ratings

I am always interested in reading your race analysis and glad that you share with the Forum Members and long may you continue.

 

[mtoto]

Chesham

But first lets look at the questions which motivated VDW to send his letter in to start the ball rolling.

Actually the piece you showed and used when you put the above up is one of the reasons I don't think stats and trends played a major part in VDW thinking. His reply is all about the horse, the horse is the only thing mentioned.

As you say he did go one to mention the record of horses that where consistent and showed in the forecast. And later had an article that when into some detail about the % of winning horses using the last three form figures. However I would argue that are very basic stats that were quite freely available. Very different to the stats/trends that are now available. Personally as previously explained I think these stats are how the probables are found and as VDW said he used a completely different method so as to have two different sets of ratings. While I have to agree the ability rating is based on figures I don't consider any measurement of ability can be labeled as a stat or trend.

While I can see VDW did profile individual horses I can't of hand think of any trainer he actually profiled. He did give examples where horse had previously run in the same race but as far as I can see he didn't go out of his way to tell us and never explained that was even part of the reason for the selection. When VDW explained how he and what he looked for when assessing form everything revolves around the horses and that alone.

In the past I think you have indicated that the Trainer does not really influence your thinking that much. Yet VDW Suggested the following.

In part my concern about some trainers is the owner/connections can over rule the trainer, and horses can run in unsuitable races/courses. As I think the horse is the most important part of exercise the trainer should know what the horses is capable of but even then some can get blinded by those rose tinted glasses. On reading the article above it does say get to know the best horses in the stable. Again back to individual horses.

Personally looking at the selections made on the Inner sanctum, I don't see any sign of Paralysis by Analysis.

When you look at four or more sets of ratings all giving a different class or best in horse this doesn't give you problems? You have a potential selection and one of your stats trends doesn't agree that doesn't ever give you problems and put you of a winning bet?

I am always interested in reading your race analysis and glad that you share with the Forum Members and long may you continue.

As I have said this is the best most helpful forum I have ever joined, and I intend to carry on. My worry is to much will go over my head and then I will start to feel like a spare part. I can't make head or tail of some of the charts and to be honest there are quite a few things talked about that I just don't understand. That wouldn't matter but some of the threads talking about these things are getting quite long and complicated. The other thing and I have to admit it is probably me but the amount of talk and selections in this poor/rubbish racing leaves me scratching my head. Top class racing seems in the main to be left alone and folk say its too hard to find winners. I find the a/w and low class races impossible.

Be Lucky

 

[Chesham]

Hi Mtoto

Surely when VDW said " If you want to know where the coach is going, ask the driver" was a reference to the Trainer

How many times do you see a Trainer Feature in the Past winners data of the Big Races with different horses, quite often the prep races for these wins are similar.

Trainers facinate me, which is why I have a Thread for Those Trainers who have taken over a runner and have placed them for the first time. They are often found to be creatures of Habit. Even those who have Trained under an established Trainer adopt the methods of their Mentor.

Many Trainers will have trained siblings of the horses or even had the dams in training at some point with them. The type of horse that they purchase. Some like Richard Hannon and his Son will purchase on how the horse looks rather than the Pedigree. What a skill that is, as they have proved year on year that what on paper has no obvious Pedigree claims is in fact a decent race horse. it is the Trainer who breaks these horses in and the Trainer who strengthens them up, know when to start their racing career and the Trainer who maps out their season.

of course it is the Horse who is important, but what fun it is watching if the trainer is doing what you suspect he will.

If you find a thread long and complicated then why not just ignore that thread, there is no compulsion to join in.

I have joined in with the Posts that you have made on your Blog when you have covered the big races and have pointed out Pre Race if I have concerns about capability issues with some of those selections, but as there was no response from you I have not bothered of late.

With regards to the low class of races that are covered, it is very unlikely that your own data base will have the horses appear, so with the method that you use it is impossible for you to join in as you will not have an Ability Figure for any of the runners. Although I accept that VDW suggested that followers of his Platform would be better sticking to the better class races, he did give one detailed example of a scrubber race to prove that his Platform would or could work in any race. @ doomster is a prime example of someone who can successfully operate in Class six handicaps time and time again.

To me a winner is a winner, it does not matter if it is a Big Race or a Claiming Race what is the difference, each will have a probability and the Bookies will offer Odds.

The big Flat races will be upon us in the coming months and I am sure many of us on here will be discussing those, why not use the 'What am I Backing Today' thread for the races that you are covering, that way I am sure that you will get more interested in those races, sometimes a Blog gets overlooked and seen as a personal Journal,rather than encouraging a Pre Race Discussion. you could still keep a Copy of the Rcae Analysis also on your Blog as that is an accurate reflection of your seasonal bets as you go along and keeps everything in one place for those who follow your VDW Interpretation.

Best Regards

 

[dicko14]

Rather than feel like you are becoming a spare part why not join in some more threads.
You posted 3 probables for the Lincoln but didn't join in the big race thread which had that race as its point of focus. Trends or stats or good old form reading are always welcome.
Your unique style of form reading can only benefit that thread. (OK I know I started said thread)

 

[mick]

Some most interesting comments from all.I feel a bet is found via a combination of fact plus opinion,and the latter is an area where all of us will often agree to differ and thank goodness this is so or there would be no markets.? I use ratings form and profiling to find a bet then relevant stats to hopefully enhance it.Others appear to reverse this sequence. Imo there is no right or wrong way if what you are doing is working and you have the confidence that this will continue to be so.

A very good example from this blog is mtoto using non hcap form in hcap races.This does not work for myself but i can very much appreciate and respect the fact that it does for him.I don't feel information over load is ever a problem as this enables areas for further investigation and choice.?

Even when i do not agree with something a member has posted i still very much appreciate that they are sharing it.Long may this last.

The VDW Letters are imo a very good example ,in at the beginning i could see the good sense in what the man was saying but was never able to interpret his method to the extent that i could achieve similar results ,but i will always feel grateful to the guy as i believe that the most important aspect of his five part formula for finding winners was the one least discussed HARD WORK.

 

[Chesham]

Hi @ mtoto

Trainers






Now look at what is written next


Here VDW States that getting to know the particular Trainers methods and in other articles has said how often does the Favourite lose only to win next time out. In the case of Rope ladder was not really put into the race after a big speed fig




I know that we have discussed the LTO Market position before and that you don't see this has any influence, but above VDW is saying that it should be clear to anyone.

Lee also mentioned the Importance of the Market

Finally back to Trainers



We all know that the horse is important but it is the Trainer (Maybe in conjunction with the Gambling Owner) who decides when the Money is going down on the horse. These days we have to contend with owners who are both Backers and Layers so the game is probably a lot harder.

 

[mtoto]

Aintree 2:00 1 Activial 2 Guitar Pete 3 Aurore D'Estruval
Aintree 4:15 1 Arnaud 2 Oiseau De Nuit 3 Claret Cloak
Aintree 5:25 1 Busty Brown 2 Jetson 3 Meister Eckhart

5:25 I backed Meister Eckhart at Cheltenham and I still think that was his seasons target. I make this a fair bit weaker than that race and I think this could well be the constellation target. Last season he ran at Fontwell before Cheltenham and then ran at this meeting so it is possible this was always in mind. He was put into the race at Cheltenham but when his chance had gone he wasn't given a hard time. I make him the class horse as does the official handicapper and I think he had an easier race than most of his main rivals. One that I am worried about is Busty Brown, he looks as if he has been prepped for this as that last race looks a little "strange" I do have some concerns about this horse mainly because of the going but also the bounce factor. I make that last race his best ever by some distance and is a month long enough to get over it after so long of the track (injured) ? I'm backing both win and loaded place.

Be Lucky

 

[Chesham]

Hi Mtoto

I can't find any past winners who raced in Ireland LTO

 

[mick]

We all know that the horse is important but it is the Trainer (Maybe in conjunction with the Gambling Owner) who decides when the Money is going down on the horse. These days we have to contend with owners who are both Backers and Layers so the game is probably a lot harder.

As i recall one of VDWs original comments was that the better class races with even the placed prize money well worth winning went a long way towards negating the above.But this aside i would say that your above is (unfortunately) the most relevant and useful statement us backers should bear in mind.Strange as it might sound when contemplating a bet i attempt to think like the horse and the trainer with the latter causing the most problems.!

Although the end market is a very good guide to the chances of most horses there have always been instances when a horse will lose because its earlier available price is deemed to short by connections.Under these circumstances the opportunity to lay it now provides further incentive for some.?

 

[Chesham]

Hi @ mtoto

I have now looked at the Race where you have selected two EW and looking at this race it can be a newish recruit to Hurdles who wins. Cheltenham has seen 9 past winners come from this track, but the LTO Course that attracts me as a prep is Sandown, in particular their March meeting has seen 4 Novice Handicap Hurdle Participants go on to win todays race from only a few qualifiers.



Only 7 horses with the above criteria have attempted to run in todays race and 4 have won, out of the five who managed to complete the race.





Today there is another Qualifier and that is Doc Harper who ran in



This race is usually a strong race for unexposed types and this year met expectations. Doc Harper finished 3rd, beaten only 5 lengths, was carrying Top weight of 11-12 and gave a stone in weight to the winner. Today carries 9 Lbs less physical weight

Looks a Decent EW Prospect to me

 

[ArkRoyal]

Cracking call Chesham

Glad Mr E got the place for you Mtoto

 

[Chesham]

Thanks AR

The Following leads me to think that VDW also profiled races

 

[mtoto]

Chesham,

You once said I would argue black was white and that is not my intention, and I do hope this is taken in the way it is meant and not just arguing for the sake of it.

The Following leads me to think that VDW also profiled races

I can see why you could think that from reading the quote, but I can assure you I and I believe VDW didn't profile races we profile horses, good horses. Because of this the same races appear season after season. VDW did not enforce a limit of the runners and if I didn't anyone reading my results sheet could come to the same conclusion about my methods.

Re Doc Harper, have to say a very nice winner, and I would have been very happy to have found him. However that would have been impossible as he didn't register in my class rating, and looking at all the set being promoted on this forum that I can find, he also fails to register anywhere near the top of the anyone's ratings. Fair enough you did explain how you found him but that then begs the question how/why did you decide that stat was the all important one when looking at that race. Yes, the runners that came out of the Sandown race had a good record but as far as I can see the favourite also had a good record . As it has been pointed out I should take more notice of the market why wouldn't the favourite have been of major interest for you? I can see you warned me that an Irish trained horse hadn't won the race in the recent past but would that in its self be enough to put one off. After reading your warning I did have a quick look but I couldn't see any Irish horse running in the race that the market favoured so would the fact the favourite was Irish cancels out the favourite's stat?

Be Lucky

 

[mick]

Hi mtoto RE your above post i don't think you argue ,you question and Chesham reciprocates. Imo this type of constructive interaction is a positive for all concerned.(and for myself helps make this thread the best of many on the forum).

RE the 5.25 i had your Mister eckhart top on my figs but swerved the wager as my rating was -2 and also regardless of what the stats might show i would not feel comfortable backing an 8yo in such a good class hurdle.I am not after timing as i did not bet but the final notes i made when i finished working on the race where that the class horses where not favourably treated at the weights and this potentially left the door open for the race to be won by an improver (which is what Cheshams pick was).

My understanding of your method is that you identify the proven class horses in the better class races , often for good reasons you still feel unable to bet.When this situation occurs then the statistical profiling which Chesham used could be viewed as a positive approach to a negative situation.?

 

[Chesham]

Hi @ mtoto

The Favourite had last raced in Ireland and none of the Past 17 winners had last raced in Ireland. The yesterday race was often won by an improving sort and the race meeting which featured most for Improving Sorts was the March Sandown Meeting with 4/7 winners and 4/5 of those who completed the Aintree race (5/6 Now)




Doctor Harper had his first run in a hurdle race at Exeter and was a Class 3 Novice which usually goes to a an above average Novice. Doctor Harper won, was very well backed 8/11 Favourite and was described as making an impressive start over Hurdles, jumped well, travelled well, led 3 out, in command soon after, won easily; an exciting prospect, open to plenty of improvement and one to keep on the right side


With regards to BB’s ratings Doctor Harper was on a Maximum of 121 so was in the running on yesterdays figures, especially as he was likely to improve being in his first season Hurdling.


Doctor Harper when he is in the first 3 in the betting 1,1,1,1,5,1


When Not in the First 3 Betting 12, 3,


In the LTO Sandown Race he was whacked up in class giving weight to all the other runners, was 7th in the betting and still finished in front of those who were more fancied in the Market. It was a good weight giving performance (PK, Springs to Mind)


Meister Eckhart had only won one Maiden Hurdle Race, was not in the first 6 of the Betting Forecast (outside VDW Guidelines) and was Top Weight, he had been aimed higher than Handicaps and his Handicap Mark had suffered. I think connections will send him chasing.

With regards Profiling why would VDW say those two Races were Two of Favourite Races, personally I think it was because he knew which type of horse was needed to win them and the methods needed to bring them along. The Lancashire Oaks is a Profile Type Race

Posted Pre race by me on Flatstats

 

[mtoto]

Aintree 2:00 1 Amore Alato 2 Baltimore Rock 3 Josses Hill
Aintree 3:05 1 Rajdhani Express 2 Wishfull Thinking 3 Ballynagour
Aintree 3:40 1 Double Ross 2 Poole Master 3 Champion Court
Aintree 4:15 1 Seeyouatmidnight 2 Tagrita 3 Racing Pulse
Aintree 4:50 1 Cheltenian 2 Caid Du Berlais 3 Pass The Time

Looks quite tricky today. The 3:05 and 4:15 out as I can't see any value in them. The
other three all have different questions to answer re going course etc.

2:00 Amore Alato is the class horse and racing style should suit this course and for me
there are major doubts about the next two handling the track as well as AA. Baltimore Rock
all his best form has been right handed and the very best was on a right handed stiff
course. Josses Hill while his Cheltenham form seems to be why he is the likely favourite I
make his Kempton form stronger but behind the form of AA;s Kempton form. Amore Alato small
win loaded place.

3:40 I have problems with Double Ross and Poole Master, the course with Double Ross as
his best performances have all been on stiff courses, with Poole Master the going, as his
best has been in the heavy. That leaves me with Champion Court and he is a horse that
never seems to run to his figures and/or potential. Although his best figures have been at
Cheltenham in the life of this d/base he has only run twice at Aintree and both times
recorded figures good enough to register. In the main he is a sound jumper and I'm going
with him but it will be an even smaller win and loaded place than usual.

4:50 I spent far to much time looking at this race, the problem is I love these hcp hurdle
races and this one has plenty of horse I like. In the end I have decided to give it a
miss as for the life of me I can't get a sensible grip on Cheltenian. It can't be he did
like the course or going, the prize was worth it so why was he pulled up when in with a
fighting chance? Now I may have missed some thing being said by the connections but I
thought he must have injured himself or they thought he had. The next two in the ratings
are way behind class wise, and the top class horse Cash And Go like the joint next best
class wise Party Rock are out of form. This leaves the top two rated probables in order
Stonebrook Zabana but with three horse in the race with better than proven class form and
eight others with form going for probables seems to be clutching at straws.

Be Lucky

 

[Chesham]

In The 2.00

Just using Stats Only

View attachment 4268



Todays Qualifiers

 

[Chesham]

Hi @ mtoto

in the 3.40 you have gone for Champion Court carries 11.12 in the past 17 runnings of this race no horse has won carrying more than 11-8

In Chases he seems to do better with a smaller number of runners,probably has he likes to dictate the pace and unlikely to get things his own way in races with plenty of runners

 

[ArkRoyal]

.... in the past 17 runnings of this race no horse has won carrying more than 11-8

Make that 18 now with Ma Filleule winning off 11-7, but there were only 2 runners out the 30 that were over 11-8

 

[Chesham]

Make that 18 now with Ma Filleule winning off 11-7, but there were only 2 runners out the 30 that were over 11-8

Hi AR

It was a big ask anyway for Champion Court to carry top weight, as he has only once this season finished closer than 17 lengths to the winner in the races that he has contested this season.

The fact that VDW said that there was usually a certainty in the Old Newton Cup & Lancashire Oaks, and that's why he said they were his favourite races leads me to believe that he knew exactly which type of horse was needed to win this race. if it was a case of his method just Profiling the horse and not the race he would have said all races are his favourite.

In the first Race yesterday that @ mtoto had a bet in, using very quick profiling three horse were thrown up and listed in SP order were 1st & 2nd

in the second race a bet can be saved by profiling the race as VDW said it is going against the odds. VDW covered weight and its problems in his example where although the horse who was clearly the Class/ Form, had to give too much weight to West Tip. If he did ever get 80% winners then he would need to know which bets to swerve, even though the class/Form Horse had been identified. Pegwell Bay would be swerved he said if the going was soft, Forgive And Forget where Kempton was not a suitable track to be seen at his best.