• Hi Guest Just in case you were not aware I wanted to highlight that you can now get a free 7 day trial of Horseracebase here.
    We have a lot of members who are existing users of Horseracebase so help is always available if needed, as well as dedicated section of the fourm here.
    Best Wishes
    AR

VDW Just a few thoughts VDW or otherwise.

Status
Not open for further replies.
Sand 1:50 1 Eastlake 2 Pepite Rose 3 Desert Cry
FF lass 2:40 1 Junior 2 Mountainous 3 Alfie Spinner
Sand 3:35 1 Jump City 2 Theatrical Star 3 Ardkilly Witness.

The going has to be the problem today, not just because it is heavy that can usually be sorted out. My problem is while most of the rated horses can act on the, heavy their best performances have been on better going.

1:50 All the prices are to tight for me. Of the three Eastlake has the strongest form. track and going shouldn't be a problem but the jockey is more than a little of putting for me. There is something that shouts PREP about this run no bet.

2:40 Junior is the only horse in this that has form in a higher class but that was some time ago. He does have form on heavy with big weights but will have to improve on recent runs can't see it. Mountainous likes the course and handles the going although his best ever was on better going than heavy but it was on this course. My worry is how much did that last win take out of him it was a hard race. Alfie Spinner ran in this race last season, distant third. Another who has won on the heavy but best performances on better going another leave.

3:35 Jump City I thought he was going to be my bet today, but the course doesn't look right and the going looks worse. If Theatrical Star hadn't been in the race I may of just about taken a chance on JC's class seeing him through. Theatrical Star is yet another with winning form on heavy, has shown he can handle a stiff course by putting up his best performance but once again on better going. Stable doesn't seem to be in the best of form so yet another leave.

At least it keeps the old grey matter ticking over!! :prankster:

Be Lucky
 
Muss 1:00 1 Crowning Jewel 2 Capellanus 3 Mister Dillon
Muss 2:30 1 Clarcam 2 Adeupas D´Ycy 3 Broughton
Muss 3:30 1 Sametegal 2 Lyvius 3 Yorkis

Nothing appeals again today. :idk: Crowning Jewel and Sametegal came nearest, but not happy with the going for either.

Be Lucky
 
You miss the point. Ask the Official Handicapper before yesterday's race which in his opinion was the best horse in the field, and he'd reply Lovelace, then Candidato Roy and Mine, etc etc.
And you reckon that I have missed the point!!!

How can you quote an individual like the Official Handicapper and then ignore completely the basic premise of his work?

He would maintain that "class" or ability should only be viewed in context, and that in the context of a handicap it should not be a consideration.

*****************************


The above is a question and answer to the question of weight and class in hcps . Can I ask what is your/anyone's thoughts on the reply that class plays no part in the handicapping process.

Be Lucky
 
Hi @ mtoto mtoto

The Official Handicapper has to take into account the Class of race that the winner has competed in, so that he can award a New Rating. Usually he is Picking a Horse as a Bench Mark (See Next Post) The Handicapper uses a Horse who in his opinion has run up to his Mark, to a certain extent that is the Class that the horse has beaten

If you look at My Next Post you will see how the Official Handicapper Rated Sea The Stars and which Horse was the Bench Mark, if you think of the OR for that Horse this is the Class of the race that the Winner has won



I have used the Races where Timeform have awarded the Highest Rating (Note that he was a Dual Grp 1 Winner in South Africa and Timeform do not have a rating for those wins)


Candidato Roy
NAD AL SHEBA Thursday, 9 March 2006


Timeform 115 Off Handicap Rating 105



Highest OR in Race = 108 & Lowest 105 and Carried 9-3 (Note the Handicap was very compressed with 10 runners and only 3 lbs between them on Official Ratings)


In the 29/09/07 Race was on a BHA 105 Carried 9-7 = +4 lbs More than Marker Race (Prior to his LTO Race at warwick, had been off the Track 8 months and was trained by Hagass a Switch from Mike de Kock


Highest OR in Race = 109 (lovelace) Lowest OR in Race 93


Lovelace



GOODWOOD Tuesday, 4 September 2007 GOOD to FIRM

3.45 Charlton Hunt Supreme Stakes (Group 3)


Timeform 115


Highest OR in Race = 110 & Lowest 96 (Lovelace)

The Race was a 3 Y-O + and LOve Lace Carried 8-9


In the 29/09/07 Race was on a BHA = 109 and Carried 9-8 = 13 Lbs More Than the Marker Race


Mine




HAYDOCK PARK Thursday, 7 June 2007 GOOD to FIRM

4.25 Bank Of Scotland Corporate Stakes (John of Gaunt) (Listed) (1) (Turf) 7f 30y

£15,898 (4yo+)

Timeform 111


Highest OR 112 and Lowest 90 Carried 9-0


In the 29/09/07 Race was on a BHA = 105 and Carried 9-7 = 7Lbs MoreThan the Marker Race

Good Luck

Chesham
 
Last edited:
Hi @ mtoto mtoto

This is the Reply that I got back when I asked which horse the Official Handicapper had used for two races that Sea The Stars had Competed in
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Screen Shot 2014-02-03 at 17.54.51.png
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Good Luck

Chesham
 
Last edited:
Newb 1:50 1 Kilmurvy 2 Pateese 3 Rydon Pynes
War 3:15 1 Majala 2 Persian Snow 3 No Buts
Newb 3:35 1 Dell' Arca 2 Smashing 3 Montbazon

1:50 Although Kilmurvy is top rated class wise and the third strongest probable, the fact his best and most of his runs have been right handed is enough to put me off. He does have a reasonable performance to his name on this course and the going should suit but not for me.
3:15 Majala is now the only runner with proven form in a higher class but I have missed the place price
3:35 I'm taking a real chance with Montbazon here. While he is older than the usual unexposed horse that runs in this there is no doubt he is unexposed. He still holds an entry for the champion, but I do think this is more realistic as the hill didn't seem to suit last time he tried. I find it hard to believe they would risk an unfit horse in a race like this after taking so long to get him back on the track. He has been working with yesterdays classy looking winner and the stable is slowly hitting form so they must have a handle on his well being. Straight E/W bet with a little extra for the fifth place with Mr Power

Be Lucky
 
Hay 1:45 1 Hawk High 2 Abracadabra Sivola 3 Aurore D'Estruval
Hay 2:20 1 Seeyouatmidnight 2 Lienosus 3 Celestial Halo
Hay 2:55 1 Wychwoods Brook 2 3 Nuts N Bolts 3 Across The Bay
Ascot 3:15 1 Stopped Out 2 Heath Hunter 3 Kuilsriver
Hay 3:30 1 Horatio Hornblower 2 Flemenson 3 Top Wood
Ascot 3:50 1 Captain Chris 2 Riverside Theatre 3 Medermit
Hay 4:05 1 Kaki De La Pree 2 Wuff 3 Toubeera

Seven races worked on but only three came up with the the starting factor I look for, proven form in a higher class. These are the 3:15 3:50 and 4:05 in the last two races there is only one horse with this factor but the prices are too tight for me. So while I can see Captain Chris and Kaki De La Pree winning they will not be carrying any of my money.
This leaves the 3:15 with two runners with proven form Stopped Out and Kuilsriver top and third rated, going against a form horse in Heath Hunter. While I make Heath Hunter the strongest probable he does have plenty to find class wise with the other two. Of these two Stopped Out seems to be the more solid consistent horse but for me there is a niggling doubt about the Sandown form that gives him that rating. Up until that run his best form had been in a much lower class and it looks and reads as if he stole the race. Kuilsriver won this race last season and there it does look as if he did it the hard way beating off a couple of challenges. Not sure what happened next as after talk about races at Cheltenham he didn't run again for ten months. The two races this season look like prep races, and I can only assume prep for this! I also notice he has been entered at Don on the 19th I hoping this is because they have a race fit horse ready to go and did'nt want to waste it if Ascot was abandoned. Small win loaded place.

Be Lucky
 
Kemp 2:05 1 Duroble Man 2 Activial 3 Solar Impulse
Newc 2:20 1 Figaro 2 Ubaltique 3 Grate Fella
Newc 2:55 1 Junior 2 Relax 3 Wyck Hill
Chep 3:05 1 Saved By John 2 Grey Gold 3 Al Alfa
Chep 3:40 1 Kris Spin 2 Tullyesker Hill 3 Awaywiththegreys
Kemp 3:50 1 Bury Parade 2 Bless The Wings 3 Jump City

Six races worked on and can't find anything that really interests me today. Two that did have me having a second look were the Alan King runners Duroble Man and Bless The Wings. Both have proven form in higher class, but both have serious questions to answer and this could just well be runs to test out their well being after the lay off. :idk:

So a watching day

Be Lucky
 
Don 2:55 1 Simply Ned 2 Doeslessthanme 3 Swift Arrow
Kelso 3:05 1 Clever Cookie 2 Secrete Stream 3 Hit The Top
Don 3:30 1 Monbeg Dude 2 Wayward Prince 3 Renard

This time of the year is usually quite for me as Cheltenham is just around the corner and
most of the good ones are waiting for that.

Only three races looked at and only three runners from those races have the required
proven form in higher class races.
In the 2:55 there is just the one Doeslessthanme, he is joint top rated, but comes out
second best on count back. He fails on consistency and forecast, and doesn't make the
probables list. In fairness his figures are based on form that only just comes into the
required time and is getting a little old. + on closer examination it does flatter him.
Throw in the going could be a major concern and he isn't a betting proposition for me.

3:05 Nothing in this race even has the standard of form I'm looking for. The figures are
abased on stats alone this includes the probables. This doesn't mean the figures are
useless, but it makes value harder to find. A no bet race for me.

3:30 Of these three I think Wayward Prince stands the best chance of showing a profit.
His second last race was his best yet and the course, going, and distance should suit. He
is entered in the national, but this looks far more suitable without any worries about the
going firming up. Coming out of none hcps, and not finishing his last race has him well
down many sets of ratings and hopefully ignored by the public. I don't doubt for one
moment Monbeg Dude will run his race and is a major danger. I do feel the hype connected
with the owners will reflect in his price, and when his jumping record, and the fact the
national will be the real target under the odds will all that is on offer. Wayward Prince
is the bet small win loaded place but if by some chance the Dude does go of a a
reasonable price (over 6/1) a win saver will be in order.

Be Lucky
 
Hi Mtoto

One thing worth noting about Wayward Prince is that 2nd LTO he finished 2nd as he had done the year before in that race. Then tried to win the Aintree Race LTO for the 2nd year running, which looked to be his target race. Has yet to win a Handicap Chase, but on best form is potentially well handicapped if he puts his mind to it ?? but to me looks to have too much weight and would be the first horse in the past running of the race to win off that weight.
 
Last edited:
Sand 2:05 1 Ceasar Milan 2 Horizontal Speed 3 Brave Vic
Sand 3:15 1 Swing Bowler 2 New Year's Eve 3 Baltimore Rock

2:05 I managed to make a profit in this race for the last two years but find today's running a bit of a puzzle. Most if not all of the best form has been achieved in small fields. If pushed I would side with Brave Vic, but again his best was in a small field on a very different type of course. I'm not sure if I'm grasping at straws but his profile does look as if he has been lined up for something and this has to be worth winning. I make him the second best class wise and he does look capable of getting a place at least
3:15 Class wise Swing Bowler is head and shoulders above these on proven form. My problem with her is her Cheltenham run last season, was it the stiff course, the distance, or did she bounce after the very good Newbury run? If it was the stiff course I can't really see Sandown will suit, and as her last Newbury run was only just below the standard set last season if it was the bounce it could happen again, although the distance shouldn't be a problem. I couldn't back against her but I'm not sure I will be backing her either . So all in all another watching day :cry:

Be Lucky
 
Chelt 1:30 1 Vautour 2 Splash Of Ginge 3 The Liquidator
Chelt 2:05 1 Valdez 2 Trifolium 3 Rock On Ruby
Chelt 2:40 1 Alfie Sherrin 2 Green Flag 3 Vintage Star
Chelt 3:20 1 Hurricane Fly 2 The New One 3 My Tent Or Yours
Chelt 4:00 1 Quevega 2 Cockney Sparrow 3 Doyly Carte
Chelt 5 15 1 Ericht 2 Persian Snow 3 Buthelezi

1:30 One of my favorite races of the whole season, but not my luckiest as I usually only finished placed. I'm going with the The Liquidator, in the past I have gone for speed but this time I'm taking Ruby's advice and going with the proven stayer over speed. I have three horses joint top rated on class, the three listed. The Liquidator has course/festival form, don't know what to make of his last run but feel they must be happy he will return to form. Small win loaded place
2:05 like the 3:20 and 4:00 are no bet races for me as the prices are so tight I can't see any value. As Rock on Ruby is a horse I really like it is a bit of a shame, the same goes for Our Conor as I did think he could take this.
3:20 Alfie Sherrin another with course/ festival form and looks the strongest of the three top rated.
5:15 Here I'm taking the class horse Attaglance, he fails on consistency but is head and shoulders above these on class. The chase form that gives him those figures was achieved at Cheltenham and he does have festival form over hurdles.

Three small bets all win and loaded place

Be Lucky
 
Chelt 1:30 1 Red Sherlock 2 Rathvinden 3 Faugheen
Chelt 2:05 1 Ballycasey 2 Don Cossack 3 Corrin Wood
Chelt 2:40 1 Meister Eckhart 2 Dell' Arca 3 Bayan
Chelt 3:20 1 Sire De Grugy 2 Sizing Europe 3 Captain Conan
Chelt 4:40 1 Ballyglasheen 2 Katgary 3 Gerdago

The figures look stronger/better than those for yesterday, but the bare figures are just a part of the answer. Like Hurricane Fly yesterday the problem with Sire De Grugy is it important that the figures recorded at Cheltenham are some way off his best? Yesterday one could look at the rest of the field and see there were live dangers and see good reasons to serve the Hurricane, unfortunately the same can't really be said for the field in the 3:20. The class horse is a little to old to really be winning races like this and the next best is held on its best form. A race with a big question mark against the course and still I can't find a reasonable bet.

2:40 Meister Eckhart the overall class horse in the race, has proven form in higher class. Second in this race last season and following the same lead up into the race, my figures say he is a better horse than last year. There is a slight worry the going will not be in his favour as it seems to be drying out quite quickly. Because of this I also backing Bayan, a horse with form on the course and looks as if he has been targeted at this. Prep race? recently to blow the cobwebs away and if the going has dried up could be a very big danger. Both win and loaded place.

4:40 Ballyglasheen has Cheltenham form to his name and the going could well be returning to his liking.after his last run. This is a little stronger than the race he won but that also had runners from top stables so it wasn't a walk over. He will lack nothing from the saddle. Small win loaded place.

Be Lucky
 
Chelt 1:30 1 Oscar Whisky 2 Felix Yonger 3 Wonderful Charm
Chelt 2:05 1 Mickie 2 Jetson 3 Josies Orders
Chelt 2:40 1 Al Ferof 2 Menorah 3 Benefficient
Chelt 3:20 1 Big Buck's 2 Annie Power 3 More Of That
Chelt 4:00 1 Champion Court 2 Colour Squadron 3 Johns Spirit

Can't really see much going for me today as the ratings for the 1:30 2:40 and 3:20 pretty much agree with the bookies not leaving much/any value. :doh:

2:05 I had an ante post bet on Fingal Bay so I'm sticking with him for this. The whole race is a bit of a problem rating wise as I do feel Mickie's rating flatters her by a biggish margin. As I'm not into pounds and ounces I find it hard to adjust her figures accurately. I do find it hard to believe she is better class wise than Fingal Bay and ignoring the bare figures make FB the class horse this would lift him well up the rankings. After saying all this I wouldn't back him at the prices on offer today as I do feel they are tight.

4:00 This is a major class drop for Champion Court on a course that suits, and a return to suitable going and distance. Don't usually like 7lb claimers but this one has to be an advantage. Small win Loaded place.

Be Lucky
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top