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Jockeys

markfinn

markfinn

Sire
Jockeys - easy targets - some time correctly so - but generally not - they get blamed for poor runs but rarely are they blamed for good runs ?

Watching tonight the interview with M Johnston's wife commenting on Kings and Queens who despite having an automatic 6lb penalty - when in reality they knew that it should have been looking forward to a 14lb penalty - due to the massively effective win LTO - the commentator asked her " well done , how will it cope with another 6lb rise " she pointed out, that, it was still within what what the horse should really have had on the Lbs to Lengths LTO - Kings and Queens was odds on all day and duly trotted up as expected

So was the jockey at fault for winning to far in front ? thereby exposing the horse and cutting the odds so much so that to be valueless for most punters the jockey tonight put the horse to sleep and had to chase him up in order to win - could be a class horse that they were protecting the price of
 
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Chesham Chesham - but did they need or I should say did they want the jockey to let the secret out . arkle55 arkle55 interesting comment as we know Prescotts are particularly well placed so perhaps an intelligent jockey is not necessarily the jockey with the best strike rate - should we looking for jockeys that dont place followed up by winning jockeys
 
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markfinn said:
Chesham Chesham - but did they need or I should say did they want the jockey to let the secret out . arkle55 arkle55 interesting comment as we know Prescotts are particularly well placed so perhaps an intelligent jockey is not necessarily the jockey with the best strike rate - should we looking for jockeys that dont place followed up by winning jockeys
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Hi Mark

If the horses BHA Rating is too low they cannot get the horse into the bigger prize money handicap as the horse will find itself balloted out. However, they do need to get experience into the horse in preparation for the bigger prize, hence the wide margin wins in this case
 
Chesham said:
Hi Mark

If the horses BHA Rating is too low they cannot get the horse into the bigger prize money handicap as the horse will find itself balloted out. However, they do need to get experience into the horse in preparation for the bigger prize, hence the wide margin wins in this case
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Been sleeping on this - not normally where I play as generally looking for horses on a downward path and came to similar conclusion - ie that they have to ramp up the OR for a future career - so its generally youngsters that will be highlighted by the idea ? - I was just now looking at trying to find away to look at horse's career - with same trainer - through jockeys rides to see if any patterns emerged.
 
Ryan Moor moves markets as do others - been thinking about how do we measure if a jockey can improve a horse or be allowed / trusted to do so and possibly fly under the wire - 2019 til now - thought I would check on WAX and SR.

SR and Money won are the usual yardsticks but Sr will be coloured by opportunities we see same cohort of jockeys riding day day out and money can be coloured by big prizes

So WAX which is a measure of Wins Against Expected ( by the market)

got the list down to top 40 wax performers (Red) and top SR (Black) then mixed them by WAX to see if any chimed

1615391977926.png
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Sean Quinlan is the Man - followed by the Flat lads Callum Shepard , Tom Marquand , Graham Lees , Joe Fanning ..................
 
Thank you for these figures, markfinn markfinn .

I used to follow Sean Quinlan a few years ago. Then, something happened and was away from racing for a while.
He seems to be doing a lot better nowadays.
I think I followed that Whoshotthesheriff over a cliff. Jenny Candlish was one trainer he did a lot for.

Those other lads you mentioned are very good too, imo.
 
Ryan Moore open age handicaps 2019 upto last night

1615399245987.png

Obviosly you need to check for your self and recency is all as stables and connections change regularly
 
Of late I've been looking at prb2 ratings for jockeys over the 30 , 90 and 180 days, I've included this is info when I've posted in the common race thread recently.
I calc prb2 for horses , trainers and jockeys, but I'm now dabbling with a class weighted version of prb2. As it stands so far it gives a small material improvement for the trainer and jockey versions but not the horse version, but it's still WIP.
 
re ; SQ,
Yes, some people blamed Sean for some trouble in a pub in Staffordshire.
He seems to be riding better than ever just lately. Always was good in Scotland and the north of England, imo.

pawras pawras : what is prb2, please?

Whatever it is, I'm glad it's of some use to you.
 
Sandhog said:
re ; SQ,
Yes, some people blamed Sean for some trouble in a pub in Staffordshire.
He seems to be riding better than ever just lately. Always was good in Scotland and the north of England, imo.

pawras pawras : what is prb2, please?

Whatever it is, I'm glad it's of some use to you.
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PRB is Percentage Rivals Beaten.

If you do search on this forum and on the internet you should find plenty of gumpf on it.
 
Cheers, pawras pawras .
Thanks for that.
I thought perhaps 'twas something from the Inner Sanctum. I'll have a search.
Meanwhile, if a jockey is the winner and beats 9 rivals, what PRB is that?
 
You can mess with it and change it match your requirement but



1615473687931.png


so your winner is always going to be 100% of rival beaten

James Willoughby Idea
 

Attachments

  • PRB.pdf
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calculating it for last time out is easy enough but it takes a little more effort to find the PRB from last x days, the pdf though gives you the necessary info to do it though.
calculating it at 30 , 90 and 180 days helps get a sense of whether the horse, trainer or jockey form is relatively static or shifting up or down
 
Thank you both.
I was getting bogged down with regression models and R squared etc.

Would it be a more scientific and in-depth equivalent of a jockey's core or "normal" form?
That is, a guide to reliability?
 
OK, I really meant that PRBsquared is
a scientific rating of a jockey's core, normal form, perhaps.

That's how it seems to me, at this stage.
I wouldn't be surprised if it means a whole lot more than that, so I'll certainly give it some thought.
Thank you again.
 
Sandhog said:
OK, I really meant that PRBsquared is
a scientific rating of a jockey's core, normal form, perhaps.

That's how it seems to me, at this stage.
I wouldn't be surprised if it means a whole lot more than that, so I'll certainly give it some thought.
Thank you again.
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I think the doc Mark attached explains the rationale behind the squared
 
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