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Jockey Form

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rbtblb82

Colt
Oisin Murphy is on fire atm, and I'm sure I asked this before but I can't find the thread.

Does anyone know where to get jockey form stats from, but specifically, I'm looking for stats on how many doubles, trebles, four-folds they've hit?

E.g. Oisin Murphy has hit a fair few trebles and 2 or 3 four-folds recently, but I can never seem to find stats on this, but interested to see how many are hit, and by who, if possible? (wish I'd have recorded it myself).
 
Also just noticed, today, Oisin Murphy has the following at Doncaster.....

13:15 - Miss Piggle 12/1
13:50 - Mr Seagull 22/1
15:00 - Secret Of Love 18/1
15:35 - Palazzo Blue 12/1
16:10 - Mr Writer 10/3
16:43 - Laureate Crown 9/2
17:15 - Explode 11/4

Some big odds there for Oisin, it would be rude for me not to back him today after posting the above.
 
rbtblb82 said:
Oisin Murphy is on fire atm, and I'm sure I asked this before but I can't find the thread.

Does anyone know where to get jockey form stats from, but specifically, I'm looking for stats on how many doubles, trebles, four-folds they've hit?

E.g. Oisin Murphy has hit a fair few trebles and 2 or 3 four-folds recently, but I can never seem to find stats on this, but interested to see how many are hit, and by who, if possible? (wish I'd have recorded it myself).
Click to expand...
R rbtblb82
Quite easy to get this sort of stuff although how useful it is, i don't know - also the combinatorics between "opportunity" and "success" are not in sync. What i mean by that is for Oisin to ride 2 winners then he's got to have the opportunity to ride at least 2 horses - but on days when he does have that opportunity his number of rides per day range from 2 to a high of 12 with the mean being 4.62
The same will apply to him riding 3 winners, 4 winners etc with the mean of rides per day getting larger

Anyhoo here are his total career figures which are in "number of days"
It's self explanatory for example Oisin in his career has had 2159 days with >=2 Rides and from that he has ridden exactly 2 winners (double) on 318 of those days - his mean number of rides on these days is 4.62 - his base % of riding exactly 2 winners (without any consideration of the odds of those rides) is 14.73%

Oisin 1.jpg

So those "success" %'s are based only on Oisin riding EXACTLY the amount of winners per day in Column B in the table
But there is another way to show this from a probability POV and that is a "success %" of Oisin riding GREATER THAN OR EQUAL TO the amount of winners per day in Column B - all your doing here is including trebles and fourfolds etc in with doubles and so on and as it is a cumulative calc then the % of success as an outcome becomes slightly larger. Again though these %'s are "base" and take no account of the bookmakers odds of each ride.

Oisin 2.jpg
 
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Oisin certainly has been in tremendous form recently but the bottom line is that he's riding at a career best level this season - his career can be measured by each year against itself as a whole and a normalised finishing position metric (mean.NMFP) scores every ride, and also accounts for the variances within field sizes. An Impact Value using a cumulative sum of 1/Field Size against his actual Wins tells you how he's performing against a jockey with an average strike rate. And Wins Above Market Expectation measures how his rides perform against the wisdom of the Betfair SP.
When Murphy was an apprentice he rode a good deal better then the average claimer but like a good number of them he struggled to sustain that performance once he rode out his claims, at least for a few years before eventually moving up to a new level in 2018. Since then he has improved (although not entirely linearly - he has had his problems) again and again and is still beating the Betfair market despite his closing SP being at it's lowest ever. Normalised Finishing Position and Impact Value currently also at a "Career Best" level this year whilst his 3 best seasons have came in the last 4 years.

OisinMurphyCareer.jpg

Looking within his data it shows that in handicaps he now rides animals that are rated around 8lb better than he did in his first couple of season's as a full professional non-claiming rider. The Betfair market has eventually caught up to his rides in handicaps overall and he's now riding a slightly lower % of handicap rides - the improvement of the Balding stable and the amount of Group/Listed animals they now obtain means he now rides better quality animals also in non-handicaps and in that sphere he has returned a 12% ROI on ALL of his mounts to Betfair SP since 2017 with a profitable outcome every year. With trainers where he has ridden >= 50 rides in his career he has bettered his long term normalised finishing position with 20 trainers, 19 of whom are still operating.

Oisisn.Top.Trainers.jpg
 
Another treble for Oisin Murphy Saturday.....

Treble Tee - SP 11/5
Marvelman - SP 13/2
Fantasy Believer - SP 9/1

I got bigger odds on each... 4/1 + 11/1 + 10/1

If not for Oisin Murphy, Andrew Balding and Tim Easterby, I wouldn't have done anywhere near as good as I have recently.
 
Another treble for Oisin Murphy and it's not finished yet, damn, I didn't have him on today.

EDIT: Four-fold!
 
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rbtblb82 said:
Oisin Murphy is on fire atm, and I'm sure I asked this before but I can't find the thread.

Does anyone know where to get jockey form stats from, but specifically, I'm looking for stats on how many doubles, trebles, four-folds they've hit?

E.g. Oisin Murphy has hit a fair few trebles and 2 or 3 four-folds recently, but I can never seem to find stats on this, but interested to see how many are hit, and by who, if possible? (wish I'd have recorded it myself).
Click to expand...
I'd say it's worth backing muliples on Charlie Appleby trained horses ridden by William Buick at Newmarket in early and late stages of the season.

Oisin Murphy does tend to have lots of winners on the same day, I;ve kind of noticed that about him. But then he is probably the best jockey based in UK.
Amongst other jockeys regularly used by Andrew Balding, David Probert had a five-timer one day at Ffos Las two or three years ago as well. I think he's Welsh so maybe in demand for good rides there! Of course, he's in Hong Kong currently anyway
 
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In these days where gambling on the outcome of a horse race has been reduced to (by some - including the gambling commission) as being the same as spinning a wheel, or picking a lucky number (no skill required) then here's an equation that should be on EVERY gambling forum, especially for some who may be trying to "trap" 3, 4, & 5 timers on a regular basis without any relevance to the actual "combinatorics" involved in the whole shebang lol - in this equation, * = multiplied by and as both %'s sum to 100, then that means the equation is "weighted"
example (some of "this") multiplied by (some of "that") = "thisthat"

60% * Baader Meinhof Phenomenon + 40% * Selection/Confirmation Bias = YOU MAY END UP FUCKING HOMELESS !!

The Baader-Meinhof phenomenon, also known as the frequency illusion, is a cognitive bias where you suddenly notice something new more often, leading to the belief that it's appearing with increased frequency. This occurs because the brain, having recently encountered new information, starts selectively attending to and seeking out instances of it. It's a combination of selective attention (focusing on the new item) and confirmation bias (interpreting repeated encounters as proof of increased prevalence)

Selection/Confirmation bias is a type of bias that results from improper selection of a cohort that does not closely represent the greater population for which the study aims to be applicable. It can also result from inadequate randomization into separate study groups.

Kind of like this :
Only shouting from the rooftops on the small number of days that your winning numbers come in whilst giving no credence to the other thousands of days that they never ever come in

There are church-halls all over the UK and IRE where men and women who never learned the above go to meetings every week, drink tea, say a wee prayer and relate by guilt of accountability and massively reflect on their loss - BEWARE
 
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And who's to say once ARAZI91 ARAZI91 these people having wee cuppa and biscuit hopefully, and a wee prayer and chat about how there going home to there family they have gathered round now are not a lot happier than us lol.
Maybe a lot of sadness creates happiness but you have to generate enough sadness to realize it.
Hopefully if total honest i never find out i cover my bets and bet till heart is content during wee cuppa and biscuit and do my prayers at night just incase,
My only thing is i never ask for winners during them as i believe you need ask for others to be ok before your self don't get me wrong i am desperate to ask just scared too and he knows i need them so i will be patient or i will be sad one day which ever comes first.
 
Didn't back any of the horses but it was a day to follow William Buick.

Three rides on a so-so Monday afternoon card at Yarmouth the day after Arc Sunday.
Admittedly Yarmouth isn't far to travel and one was for Charlie Appleby, but often the type of day he would take off and maybe Billy Loughnane or Dougie Costello would have taken the Godolphin ride. If he had taken this rde, he may well have not taken any outside rides on the day.

In hindsight, it looked significant and all three horses duly won - the Godolphin runner at 5/1 after drifting in the market. It looked not a bad novice race on paper but the horse (a debutant), won really easily.
I should have been more alert!
 
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Happy accident for me last night, obviously following Oisin atm, noticed Oisin was on a 25/1 for James Horton last night, but then noticed it was Oisin Orr, but since I'd picked I thought I best still back and it won at 25/1, that was lucky, thanks to Oisin Murphy again though really, if not for him I wouldn't have put it on.
 
Terrible grammar. No, I meant that even if he had taken the Godolphin ride, fact he had two outside rides on the same card also added to the probable significance of all the bookings, (meaning they were more likely to win)
 
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rbtblb82 said:
Got to give a mention to Billy Loughnane, also having a cracking season, another treble yesterday for the lad.
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From what i hear young Billy L is very articulate in relaying back to connections what actually happened in a race
I'm told that he's very well versed in the theories of "pace"
two "in-demand" skillsets that are apparently lacking in a lot of UK and Irish Flat jockeys.
 
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