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JIB Ratings

With Tattersall being a non runner just the Newmarket race to look at. Expert Agent weakened away at the end of the race as the staying concerns proved correct. Bintola improved again and will be interesting to see where they go with her. Nanoscience ran below her previous best, possibly down to the slower ground. On the whole the ratings again trapped the winner, just the final selection process not firing at moment.
 
York 2.05 - St Anton, Stoneacre Donny, Insanity, My Love Is King

With some debate on the forum lately about horse size and the ability to carry weight Stoneacre Donny is described as a big horse and looking through his performances he does appear to be able to carry such weights which makes me question if stepping up in class carrying a low weight is the best placing of him.
St Anton has had a good season which may not be over yet, his run in the Cambridgeshire was another improved performance, going to need to improve again stepping up in distance.
My Love Is King's mark seems to be anchoring him at the moment, improvement is not beyond him and he needs it to win this.
INSANITY going against my views on 6 year olds in these type of handicaps but the predicted soft ground is going to slow a lot these down today and with no going or distance concerns and handled by a very shrewd trainer I can see this one staying on when others have downed tools and is the selection

York 3.17 Annaf, Apollo One

Apollo One is on a long losing run but his performane LTO puts him in with a chance here
ANNAF not normally a fan of using Listed class form in handicaps but backed up with a good run in the Portland Im prepared to take a chance here


York 5.07 APPLESANDPEARS is another to bring Listed form into handicaps but it is also backed with a solid handicap win in the race prior. Don't normally have just one potential selection but this one is 3 pts clear which is a big gap on the tight scale I use, and just like the race yesterday is a 3 year old filly in form
 
Bit of a disaster yesterday
York 2.05 Grey Cuban -3 on the ratings not considered, St Anton gave a tiny bit of hope for the day, as for the selection Insanity never in the race and got this one hoplessly wrong

York 2.40 neither horse got involved. The winner did not have a rating that made me give it a 2nd look, couple of the placed horses were well rated but I think I'm clutching at straws trying to find some sort of positive which clearly is not there.

York 5.07 Applesandpears, start did not help but did not show anything

Onto today and hoefuly a change of luck

Good 3.52 Caburn - top rated, dropping in class

Good 4.42 Supido - this one may be a bit of a reach but looking beyond the French handicap run and the AW performance there is some seriously good form in the book including a 4th in the Bunbury

Good 5.17 Room Fourteen, plenty in with chances but the 2 metrics I use highlight the selection. Solid handicap form to look at and dropping to a more suitable trip here, should run well
 
Caburn - never put in the race for whatever reason, be it form or intentional not sure
Supido - got a nice price about this one and placed
Room Fourteen - really dissapointed with this one, thought it was my best chance of the day

Kempton 6.45 - First Priciple, top rated dropping in class, returned to the AW
 
Dont normally look at stakes races but with limited handicaps to look at today I have rated Ascot

1.30
Cabalo De Mar highly progressive stayer who comes into this in peak form. He recently secured his third French Group 1 win in the Prix du Cadran just two weeks ago. Probably brings the strongest overall class and stamina form into the line-up. He is a massive winning chance if the quick turnaround from France doesn't catch up to him.

Gregory proven course winner and arrives in good form coming off a 23 day break since his last outing. Has to improve again in a tougher race, not out of the question though.

Amelia Earhart 3-year-old filly receiving a significant weight allowance, carrying just 8st 13lb compared to the 9st 9lb carried by the older colts. This weight pull and her stamina catch my eye at a big price. A few of the others have to misfire but in a big race like this that often happens and im playing for some place money with this one


2.05
Almeraq leading sprinter in the country, unbeaten over this course and distance, having already won the Jubilee Stakes at Royal Ascot. He ticks every single box and is surely the one to beat here.

Great Wish 5-year-old horse is in the form of his life after winning his last two outings but is clearly held by the favourite based on the Royal Ascot race

Paborus closest horse to the favourite last time out, finishing second to Almeraq in the Sprint Cup at Haydock. While he was comfortably beaten that day, I am banking on him doing the same today

Coppull is highly regarded after win in the Hungerford Stakes at Newbury earlier this season. He didn't appreciate the deep, testing ground on his latest start, the return to today's faster ground gives him a chance to bounce right back to his peak form. Dangerous to overlook

Marvelman is a big price but has a history of outperforming his odds in high-stakes environments—including a strong Group 2 win over Room Service late last season. This 16-runner straight sprint may allow him to sit off the pace and pass some beaten rivals at the finish

A2.40
Kalpana chasing a hat-trick of victories in this race. She boasts an imposing class advantage from wins in the King George and Yorkshire Oaks earlier this season, respectable fifth-place finish in the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe just 13 days ago. The most probable winner in the field.

Minnie Hauk has had a somewhat frustrating, inconsistent campaign since her stellar 2025 Oaks campaign. While she flopped behind Kalpana in the Arc last time out, her close second-place finish in the Prince of Wales's Stakes on this course earlier this season gives herevery chance of bouncing back to win.

Sparan Nua pushed Kalpana when finishing a narrow second to her at York. She failed to fire in the Prix Vermeille last time on firmer ground, but the return to today's "Good" ground conditions gives a solid ew chance.

Johanna Walsh is a progressive filly racking up two victories and a strong second from her last five outings. Probably just below Kalpana and Minnie Hauk she is a remarkably tough and reliable performer who looks tailor-made to sneak into the frame for a strong each-way return.

3.20
Gstaad has done very little wrong all season. Obvious class standout and ishighly likely to feature heavily at the finish. Difficult to see him getting beaten

Rayif open to improvement on just his seventh career start. Winner of the Group 1 Prix Jacques le Marois at Deauville in August. Drawn low in stall 1, the stiff Ascot mile is likely to suit

Hawk Mountain is drawn low alongside Rayif. While his recent form is questionable my figures suggest there may be some latent potentia thrre. He would require a massive career best to trouble the top two but cannot be ignored from this yard.

4.35 at last a handicap, it is obviously fiercely competitive but I have landed on one horse

Colori Forever, Ryan Moore has been booked to ride. Has course form shown earlier this season in producing a last-to-first winning performance. Recent outings have seen him struggling to make an impact in Group 2 and Group 3 races Dropped back into a handicap he is a major threat if he gets a clean break from the gate

One final race to mention is the Catterick 4.45

Spartan Arrow 6-year-old gelding that has struggled this season but as a result has dropped to a lenient handicap mark. The betting market is quite rightly framed around the form horses, he was backed LTO but given an awful lot to do coming from too far back and has Group 3 winning form.

The day could go according to form and some of my selections will look questionable when the results are in but im looking forward to some quality viewing today, just hope ITV dont ruin it with their strange production ideas.

Selections
1.30 Cabelo De Mar
2.05 Paborus ew
2.40 Sparan Nua ew
3.20 Rayif ew
4.35 Colori Forever ew
4.45 Spartan Arrow
 
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Came closest with Paborus, thought he had it at one point. Couple of placers, ending 2.4 pts down on the day. Bit dissapointed on the whole, especially with the 2 handicaps. Can see a couple of potential areas to look at to improve things. Work in progress
 
trecelyn said:
Newm 5.20 Expert Agent

Expert Agent - 90 obviously taking a punt that he stays the distance, sire has produced planty of winners over 7f
Bintola - 87 could be a lot better than she has already shown but fillies have such a poor record in 7f handicaps at this track
Nanoscience 87 similar to Bintola, overlooked for betting today

York 4.25 Tattersall
fits my hypothesis in the post above, gained 4 wins in years 3-4, unproductive but shortened season at 5, dropped to last winning mark at 6 to win again. Has a career high OR to overcome here and wont really want to see soft in the going description
Click to expand...
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Bath 4.20 Race filters point me towards a younger uk bred with no headgear or big weight. Not sure where the pace is going to come from here. No pace will not suit my selection. Top rated is ELECTRIFARHH who races in the rear and could get outpaced at the end of the race. The ideal scenario is a fast run affair with a pace collapse allowing the selection to stay on on the uphill finish. This race does represent a drop in class for her
 
Newcastle 4.57 CIRCUS OF ROME is highly effective around 1m4f with wins coming at Newcastle (1m4½f) and Newbury (1m4f), alongside a strong 4th at Haydock (1m6f), can get outpaced over shorter distances. Competitive Class 3 / 4 horse, but struggles when stepping up to Class 2 or above. Latest run at Pontefract potentially shows a return to form whilst dropping back to a competitive mark. Step up to optimum trip in his favour, only doubts at moment surround weight carrying.
 
Yarmouth 4.03 FANTASY MASTER
Since moving to sprint-specialist trainer Robert Cowell in 2026, the horse has run several good races. It has finished a close 2nd twice recently (Doncaster by a neck; Newmarket by a head), suggesting he could be well-handicapped. On turf he can struggle on "Good" or "Good to Firm" ground, however, he seems better on Soft or Heavy ground over 5f. When the ground is deep he can get outpaced early but flies home late to finish in the frame or snatch a win as demonstrated when winning a Class 3 at Nottingham on Soft ground.
Classwise, class 2 is too hot. Its most recent run at Ascot (3 Oct 2026) saw it finish 8th of 12. Though only beaten by 4 lengths, it simply does not possess the change of gear for top-tier handicaps. Starting to look like a win is imminent.
 
Thanks gerry gerry appreciate you looking in

Fantasy Master did not run as I had expected, rechecked my figures and cannot see any errors there so just have to suck that one up and get on with things

Newmarket 2.55 Arbaawy raced extensively over 1m as a juvenile and early 3-year-old career, frequently finishing close up. However, his best performance came LTO, where he hit the front 2f out and was only denied by a nose on the line
While he can handle good ground, he thrives when the mud flies. His agonizing nose defeat at Salisbury came on Soft ground, and his best juvenile performance was a 2nd over 1m on soft ground at Windsor. Faster ground appears to blunt his effectiveness, as seen when he finished 10th of 11 on Good to Firm (GD-FM) at Ascot.
He is a big, long-striding horse who needs a proper test. He performs well on large, galloping circuits like Salisbury, Newbury, Newmarket, and Doncaster. His best performances come when he can chase the leaders from mid-division. Leading too early leaves him exposed to late closers.
Began his season highly rated on a mark of 79 following competitive maiden performances. Ran respectably off this in higher class races which has seen his mark drop down to 74. His LTO run at Salisbury off 74 shows this him in good form and is close enough to the top of my ratings to get me interested in him
 
Newmarket 4.05 Yes I'm Mali While he won a 5f nursery as a juvenile, he is now an out-and-out 6f specialist. He lacks the raw speed for 5f (faded badly at Doncaster) and doesn't get a stiff 7f (weakened at Newbury and Haydock). All three of his career wins have come at exactly 6f.
He is significantly better on straight tracks where he doesn't have to negotiate bends. He acts particularly well on straight tracks like Thirsk, Ripon, and Newmarket (July). Handles soft exceptionally well, with a win at Ripon on 1.Sep.26 under the big weight of 10st 1lb proves he has the strength to head the handicap here. Handles big-fields, finishing a close 2nd of 20 at York, 2nd of 18 at Thirsk, and a close 4th of 12 at Ripon.

Climbed the ranks this season, his win off 81 at Ripon, and his recent 4th-place finish in a hot Class 2 handicap at Ripon off an OR of 85 shows he is in form and is dropping in class here off a lower mark.
 
trecelyn said:
York 2.05 - St Anton, Stoneacre Donny, Insanity, My Love Is King

With some debate on the forum lately about horse size and the ability to carry weight Stoneacre Donny is described as a big horse and looking through his performances he does appear to be able to carry such weights which makes me question if stepping up in class carrying a low weight is the best placing of him.
St Anton has had a good season which may not be over yet, his run in the Cambridgeshire was another improved performance, going to need to improve again stepping up in distance.
My Love Is King's mark seems to be anchoring him at the moment, improvement is not beyond him and he needs it to win this.
INSANITY going against my views on 6 year olds in these type of handicaps but the predicted soft ground is going to slow a lot these down today and with no going or distance concerns and handled by a very shrewd trainer I can see this one staying on when others have downed tools and is the selection

York 3.17 Annaf, Apollo One

Apollo One is on a long losing run but his performane LTO puts him in with a chance here
ANNAF not normally a fan of using Listed class form in handicaps but backed up with a good run in the Portland Im prepared to take a chance here


York 5.07 APPLESANDPEARS is another to bring Listed form into handicaps but it is also backed with a solid handicap win in the race prior. Don't normally have just one potential selection but this one is 3 pts clear which is a big gap on the tight scale I use, and just like the race yesterday is a 3 year old filly in form
Click to expand...
Some real nice reading - thank you
 
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