JIB Ratings

[trecelyn]

Chester is a bogey track for me but there is a lack of quality handicaps today.

1.35 - Bolo Nights is a long way in front of rest of the field but the odds are just a little too short for me especially given my past experiences betting on this track. Nothing else stands out

3.35 Pride Of Donegal has to come back from a poor run LTO, otherwise the ratings suggest a positive chance today

4.00 - Atomic Force is top and is drawn in stall 2, is that good or bad? With faster breaking horse drawn outside him, will he get boxed in.

Sandown

3.17 Top rated for me is Cash but coming off the break, I will watch today,.

Will be backing Pride of Donegal and hope Atomic Force gets the run of the race

 

[trecelyn]

Friday review

I don’t think Dangerman did a lot in winning his race, I have him running bigger figures than he recorded here. The race not as competitive as first looked.

Antipodes turned in the performance of the week for me, I think there is more to come and he goes on the tracker, disappointed with the run of Spioradalta, not sure what connections decided what they were doing on the day, but hopefully further chances down the line if placed correctly.

 

[Leodis]

I never really understood this example. Clearly the ability of horse in question was reached in race 6, scoring 94 (OR 93) against a JIB class of 98.

Surely, there were other races where the horse would have been well-in and could possibly have been backed, prior to the actual race is was deemed to be 'on'?

Am I missing the point?

 

[trecelyn]

I agree with you Leodis, I have looked at that example many times and can’t fathom it out, just hope you haven’t started a VDW like conspiracy, we could be here for the 30 years no closer to the answer

 

[Chesham]

Lowest Opposition and OR dropped to 80

 

[trecelyn]

NR and 2nd yesterday, cant blame the track for the defeat. Nothing for today but there is one race tomorrow at Windsor

7.00 Uncle Don is top rated from his last run here, possibly aided by having the rail to run up against but did not stop trying just going down by shd in the end.

 

[trecelyn]

View attachment 168358
Lowest Opposition and OR dropped to 80

Chesham I can see where how that works, but most days if you look hard enough you will find examples of horses that have operated af a far higher level dropping into the lowest class opposotion they have faced and a drop in their OR. How do you decide if its a bet or not How far back do you take their rating from? Do you ignore their recent poor form? Are they still able to perform to a higher level than they are facing today?

The way I use the rating is to rate the last 3 runs of the entire field but I also take into account what track the form is achieved on and the number of runners. Thats my starting point, for class 3 races I normally only look at horses rated 90 and above and for class 2, 98 and above. It gives me a shortlist to work from and are mostly from the top half of the handicap. I will check that the rating was gained in comparable conditions to the race I am rating and strike out any that are not. I then take a look at the lower rated horses to see if there is a pretty obvious improver amongst them and if there is I may add it to the shortlist. Thats where my judgement and odds available come into the process to see if there is a bet for me or not.

After the race I look back to see what I got right and what I got wrong, sometimes an obvious error will come to light or I will see something that I can use further on down the line, a point being given Roger Varian's targetting of the John Smiths Maget Cup with slow maturing 4 year olds, did we see his entry this year in Antipodes. Will be watching with interest.

 

[Chesham]

Hi trecelyn

I presume that JIB was keeping a spread Sheet and was working off that with regards his ratings, as it would take him ages to work out the past 16 races .

ArkRoyal added the Jib Ratings for me, on the Class Ratings Sheets when they were available in the past. I have always used my own Adjusted class rating (CCR) on those sheets and of course now

 

[trecelyn]

Chesham the class ratings sheets were a goldmine of information. My take on the JIB ratings are my own, they may be flawed the way I compile them but I'm not relying on anyone else as I used to with the class sheets so they will always be available for as long as i want to keep doing them. Currently my strike rate is around 18% but I have minimum prices that I accept. I will give an example for a fictional 12 runner race how I set my prices.

The first group I look at will have demonstrated both class and form, the next are form horse but not in todays class, then we have the class horses but not in form and finally the also rans.

So if I have 2 form/class horses that is a minimum price of 2 (horses in this group ) plus 1 to allow for the unexpected. So a minimum price of 3-1
Next group say we have 3 horses, I bring forward the 3 from the first group plus 3 from this group plus 1 for the unexpected, so my minimum price for this group is 3+3+1= 7-1
Next group say another 3 horses, so I bring forward the 7 add on the 3 for this group plus 1 for the unexpected 7+3+1= 11-1
I never back from the last group so never price it up.Hope that all makes sense

 

[Sullybomb]

Chesham the class ratings sheets were a goldmine of information. My take on the JIB ratings are my own, they may be flawed the way I compile them but I'm not relying on anyone else as I used to with the class sheets so they will always be available for as long as i want to keep doing them. Currently my strike rate is around 18% but I have minimum prices that I accept. I will give an example for a fictional 12 runner race how I set my prices.

The first group I look at will have demonstrated both class and form, the next are form horse but not in todays class, then we have the class horses but not in form and finally the also rans.

So if I have 2 form/class horses that is a minimum price of 2 (horses in this group ) plus 1 to allow for the unexpected. So a minimum price of 3-1
Next group say we have 3 horses, I bring forward the 3 from the first group plus 3 from this group plus 1 for the unexpected, so my minimum price for this group is 3+3+1= 7-1
Next group say another 3 horses, so I bring forward the 7 add on the 3 for this group plus 1 for the unexpected 7+3+1= 11-1
I never back from the last group so never price it up.Hope that all makes sense

trecelyn sounds very Interesting, I've seen Chesham mention these sheets before. Seems to be working well for you.

 

[trecelyn]

I will try and give an actual example of how I work. My class figures give the following qualifiers
No's 1,2,3,5,9,10 so these are my class horses
Of those 1,3 & 7 are form horses and go in the first group, 3+1= minimum price 4-1
4 has the form but not the class, so its 4 (the odds from class/form group) +1+ 1 = minimum price 6-1
Then I add the rest of my class horses 2,5,9 & 10 so I have 6+4+1= minimum price 11-1

AP =Actual Price
PP= Percieved Price
1 PP= 4-1, AP= 4-1
2 PP= 11-1, AP= 14-1
3 PP= 4-1, Ap= 5-1
4 PP= 6-1, AP= 10-3
5 PP= 11-1, AP= 16-1
6 Eliminated
7 PP= 4-1, AP= 8-1
8 Eliminated
9 PP= 11-1,AP= 12-1
10 PP= 11-1, AP= 20-1
11 Eliminated
12 Eliminated
13 Eliminated
14 Eliminated
I operate in the first group and I've already nailed my colours to the top rated Uncle Don (3), Dilligently's form is a bit erratic, I do prefer consistency, hence my selection

 

[Chesham]

WOLVERHAMPTON (A.W)

17:00

1m 1f 104y

Tundra		1m 1f 104y SD	CL6	3K	133			Richard Kingscote	59		65		-1					58
Date	Course	Dist/Going	Class	Prize	Weight	Position	Comment	Jockey	OR	SS	RPR	TBB SP	TBB HC	BHA Perf		PRB	PRB^2	JIBRace	JIBHorse
2/22/21	Wolv	1m 142y SD	Cl5	4yo+ 3K	114	2 of 7	2.5L Nirodha (IRE)[15/2] 114	Darragh Keenan(3)	59	103	64	34	51	A:59		83.33%	69.44%	70	65
2/6/21	Kemp	1m 3f 219y SS	Cl5	4yo+ 3K	128	8 of 8	15.3L Aced It (IRE)[40/1] 128	Tom Queally	62	85	44	16	33	A:45		0.00%	0.00%	68	48
1/18/21	Wolv	1m 1f 104y SD	Cl6	4yo+ 3K	135	10 of 12	8.55L Monsaraz[9/1] 135	Hollie Doyle	64	96	56	44	61	A:53		18.18%	3.31%	61	47
1/5/21	Wolv	1m 142y SD	Cl5	4yo+ 3K	129	4 of 12	5.8L Gavi Di Gavi (IRE)[16/1] 129	Charles Bishop	65	96	65	25	42	A:61		72.73%	52.89%	67	56
12/17/20	Souf	1m 3f 23y SD	Cl6	3yo+ 3K	138	10 of 10	57.45L Straight Ash (IRE)[10/1] 138	Tom Queally	65	61		0	17	A:0		0.00%	0.00%	58	-25
12/5/20	Wolv	1m 142y SD	Cl6	3yo+ 3K	131	3 of 8	2L Hector's Here[40/1] 131	Darragh Keenan(3)	65	97	71	41	58	A:63		71.43%	51.02%	64	60

The above is for a Horse Called Tundra and it had the Top Jib Rating in the Race 65 achieved in a JiB Class 70. LTO The race Race he was now in was JiB class 58, which was a big drop in class

The Class Rating Sheet (Called CCR on my recent reports ) has Tundra top rated 63.84 in a LTO class 68.9 race . The Race class that he was now in = 56.7 and a drop in class of 12.2 Lbs.

Jib Ratings worked well when another set of Ratings came to the same conclusion