JIB Ratings

[trecelyn]

Been AWOL for a while trying to figure a few things out whilst not joining in any conversations which is silly really as I'm sure a few people on here could have helped me. I have been trying to develop the John In Brazil class ratings, I have adapted them to a point where I am comfortable using them in better class races. My adaptation takes into account field size as i think bigger fields can be more competitive and racecourse gradings. I have also added a consistency factor that i use as a final check.

Everything was going ok until I hit 7 losers this weekend, mostly at Epsom. Dont know if it was track, the going, a mixture of both or the ratings not being good enough. Been here before and I have found posting selections to this forum tends to sharpen the focus so here goes.

There is only one race tomorrow that meet my selection criteria Goodwood 1.50. The 4 that come out on top are
Toyotomi - 4pts clear and good consistency
Seven Questions - 2nd rated with improving ratings
Jungle Drums - rating comes from AW and has generally struggled on turf, poor consisteny but trainer/jockey combo have a habit of making me look stupid
Sudden Flight - may offer a bit of value to the market leaders, with his best rating coming last time out

Toyotomi at 4-1 appears to be the bet, I am also tempted by the 12-1 about Sudden Flight as an EW bet but with the bad weather about and the field already down to 8 will leave it this time.

 

[JennyK]

I'm not au fait with JIB's ratings, trecelyn, and in any case you have created your own version, but I remember him from reading the posts on the Gummy forum now archived on this one as a critic of VDW whom, I think influenced by the successes of another Gummy poster, Lee, somewhat warmed to him. If I remember correctly, JIB's main criticism of VDW's ability (class) rating was that it took no account of runs other than wins and therefore scored horses who had come close to winning lower than in his view they merited. Do JIB's class ratings address that supposed weakness, and are they purely rating ability or also form?

In the 1.50 today Brosay (161) is top on VDW's ability ratings but not a "form" horse on VDW's method of rating forum status. He is followed by Seven Questions (143) and Toyotomi (133) who are "form" horses, and Jungle Drums (133) who isn't. From a VDW perspective, Seven Questions and Toyotomi are of primary interest but although the same pair as your two top-rated, in reverse order.

I only look at sprint handicaps and the main one at Epsom yesterday, the Dash, worked out quite well from the VDW ability ratings perspective. The two top rated were Stormy Impact (294) and Vintage Claret (195) but neither were "form" horses, and the two top on ability who were also "form" horses were Lexington Blitz (117) and Arklow Lad (94). Did the JIB ratings, as amended, have any of those in contention?

 

[tacker]

Funny enough trecelyn i looked at this TOYOTOMI yesterday for a thread elsewhere but he didn't quite qualify.
Ran a solid race lto thirsk, held travelled well but a little hampered when challenging, finished well with a slightly faster final furlong.
His french form was decent including a well btn 2un behind LAZZAT, handles soft ground and if you wanted to take the formline from ayr last year then he's 4lbs better in with SEVEN QUESTIONS having beat that horse by 7L, (that bit of form might need a pinch of salt).
good luck.

 

[Chesham]

Hi trecelyn

these posts should help you. John In Brazil I had positive exchanges with on the Old Peach Forum. Another thing at that time , we shared a common interest in Chasers who OR was much higher than its old Hurdle OR and was now returning to Hurdle Handicaps

John was similar to Lee in respect that he used his ratings to see if a horse was dropping to lesser competition on a favourable mark , compared to past performances . He posted this for Fantasy Believer on a small forum that I was part of. (Fulham, Bobajobber and Mtoto were also members of that Forum .

The trainer of Fantasy Believer as it turns out was very clever at placing this horse to win\

I figured out how a chap called JIB (John In Brazil) compiled his own ratings. He did have some success with his ratings.

This is how he worked them out.

JIB used the Average OR of the First 5 in the Betting non Handicaps and the Average OR of the first 6 in the betting Handicaps, to arrive at the Class of Race and then applied his formula to distance beaten.

Finishing dist (in lengths) x 15 / race dist (in furlongs) = lbs


He could be following a horse for ages until he thought that he was entered against beatable opposition. The example below is by JIB
When deciding the class of the race about to be run he would use the first five or six in the Racing Post Forecast with regards to average OR's

In the example below OH = Official Handicapper


Quote JIB: On the 11-07-06 Fantasy Believer faced opposition I rate at 78. However if I was rating the race before the off I would be using the fc rather than the result so there could be a slight variation between these two ratings.

Taking his last 16 runs before 11-07-06 with the most ancient first.

Starting on a mark of 93:
1) (93) rates 77 against opposition rated 81. (Gets 2lbs from the OH )
2) (91) rates 85 against opposition rated 83. (OH changes his mind and gives him 3lbs )
3) (94) rates 87 against opposition rated 93. (OH takes leave of his senses and drops the horse 5lbs! )
4) (89) rates 92 against opposition rated 94. (OH hands him back 4lbs )
5) (93) rates 90 against opposition rated at 99. No change.
6) (93) rates 94 against opposition rated at 98. No change
7) (93) unseated rider. No change.
8) (93) poor effort on soft going. No Change.
9) (93) another poor effort on heavy. (3lbs from the OH )
End of 2005 season.
10) (90) poor effort on seasonal debut. (3lbs from the OH )
11) (87) another poor effort on soft. (2lbs from the OH )
12) (85) rates 84 against opposition rated 90. (Another 1lb )
13) (84) rates only 68 against opposition rated 86. However looking at the result the draw could have been a big negative. Another 1lb ) Now down 10lbs from his peak.
14) (83) rates 78 against opposition rated 85. Yet another 1lb )
15) (82) rates 75 against opposition rated 92. No change.
16) (82) rates 77 against opposition rated 83. (Another 2lbs )

So on 11-7-06 Fantasy Believer was up against the weakest opposition since his previous win 16 races before. Furthermore although he was some way short of his peak the year before his recent performances show that he was consistently running to the same level of the opposition he was about to face.

This year I have learned the importance of a horse having beatable opposition. On this aspect Fantasy Believer scores heavily as his trainer has found him a v raggedy arsed bunch to run against under ideal conditions.

Incidentally the win on 11-07-06 ratesat 80.

The Formula that JIB Uses for runners who are behind the winner.

finishing dist (in lengths) x 15 / race dist (in furlongs) = lbs

If The race is 8f and the class rated 80 by Jib then a horse who was 2 lengths away from the winner would be rated 80-3.75 = a rating of 76.5

Calculation (beaten 2l X 15) / (Race Distance 8f)

Ascot 3.45 Saturday

The OR of first 6 in the betting

107 95 100 96 97 99 Average = 99 which will be JIBs Race Class for this race

Mabait was 3rd beat 1.75 Lengths

His rating = =(1.75*15)/7 = 3.75 or rounded up = 4

Race Class 99 minus 4 = 95

So Jib would have this horse rated 95 in a class 99 of an official Handicap Rating (OR) = 97

Personally I think JIB should use finishing dist (in lengths) x 17.5 / race dist (in furlongs) = lbs

This is the John In Brazil Rating and think it would fit in well with HRB as the Horses Rating For Each Race would be displayed when bringing up the horses record and could see a similar picture to Fantasy Believer

How to start


View attachment 83160

Hi BC Re “I have come around to John in Brazil's view that it's flawed for the reasons I gave earlier, but I see that Chesham still uses it and has posted some information that I'll have a look at later tonight or on Saturday.”


I find that JiB Ratings work well, especially if the horse is well in on TheBluesBrother TBBHC Column. “THEBLUESBROTHER HANDICAP RATING” can be compared to the BHA Rating.

At the end of the day Ratings are a guide and need to be used in conjunction with other data. What matters is to find the best way to use whichever Ratings that you are using .

View attachment 112441

 

[Chesham]

One other thing trecelyn, if you are using Jib ratings, then Median OR is a better way forward than Average OR .

 

[DuckandDive]

trecelyn As an exercise, I explored the basic Jib on today's 1.50 Goodwood race.

I'm guessing, but the Jib reduction will very much depend on which form-line you use. Here's the reduction I tried, in the Jib column based on the lowest distance beaten, in the last 2 runs. Ideally, the last run, in theory, "should" be used, but if a poor one, ie: beaten 10 lengths+, then the previous one may suffice. (unless also beaten 10l+, in which it won't matter too much, as it's in very poor form). Just my P.O.V.

Input table.



As a further exercise, I compared it with Bowers. (why the heck not?). The 1.50 is a Balanced race, so let's see.

The ratings column is the Jib Adj OR, with a tick, if above average.


In essence, a form of Jib adjusted rating, aligned with Bowers could make for an interesting partnership, and who knows, a sprinkling of VDW?!...

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This is how is looked with a further NR. Race still balanced. Toyotomi smashed to a BSP 2.34!



---

 

[mlmrob]

Toyotomi is interesting today given he has won on soft in France. He has won in listed class at Deaville and has form linking him with last season's Abbaye fourth, fifth and sixth, with one of them, Mgheera, fifth in the Temple Stakes the other day.

When David O Meara sends one horse to Goodwood and the ground is soft or heavy, his record since 2020 reads 7-13.

Toyotomi produced a Timeform speed figure of 96 last time in a 0-105 at Thirsk. He has best run out speed of that race and reached the highest MPH, 43mph. He also has a 91 on his CV from finishing fifth over this course and distance last October in a 0-95. He again topped the MPH at 43MPH. The winner of that race, Far Above Dream, has since won twice, the latest off 8lbs higher, beating Brosay just over 2.5ls. Toyotomi is worse off at weights with Brosay when 0.75l behind that horse at Ascot. But, Charlie Pike is 1-50 in 2026 and 0-40 since March 1st

Toyotomi is in a 0-90 today carrying 3lbs less physical weight than he did in that 0-95.

The negatives are he doesn't like the parade ring, he wears a red hood and is mounted in the chute.

 

[trecelyn]

And that is why I should have posted this up ages ago. Look at the help offered from one post, if there is anybody looking in debating wether to post or not, the answer is in all the responses above.

I did not look at the Dash, too competitive for me. Do JIB's class ratings address that supposed weakness, and are they purely rating ability or also form? I cannot answer that, my version is not purely based around the class rating as I try and guage if it was a stronger race than it appears on paper, looking for something that others have missed.

I use the version Chesham has posted above as the baseline but I do use the average not the median, something to look at maybe. I have been following the Bowers threads on here, an absolute goldmine of information, especially if you go and look at the races yourself and try and see how everything works and what you may or may not do differently. Looking at the race today could always see the field reducing thus making my EW choice a bet best unplaced, I cant figure the trainer out, I watched Sky Racing one day and the advice given was it was a typical Omeara horse about to win and it did, wish I had that kind of vision.

 

[Sullybomb]

Well Done all with Toyotomi

 

[gerry]

I think the market gives you a lot of vision now with so much on line there never far out what i like about the market is it goes right up to date with the going so you get direct delivery in real time and it more right than wrong. How many times do we see horses to big a price and were scratching our heads wondering why is that so big then the race gets run and we find out why it runs like a cow happens a lot now. And same with horses we think that should never be so short and runs big race where form could not be found to back it.
I am not saying its every thing but i am now thinking its massive and deff in top two of my list to start with well to be total honest its my top one which sets all my races of.

 

[trecelyn]

Before the race I had Toyotomi on 93, after todays race I have him at 94+, I dont have this down a competitive race, a view further renforced by the proximity of the outsiders in the field to the winner. Sudden Flight put in an improved effort and I would be interested in him if he was returned to the AW on the back of this effort.