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Is it really more difficult to predict the second horse ?

cosmicsports

cosmicsports

Colt
This is a question for experts.
I asked it before but maybe was not understood.

Suppose you are an expert forecast bettor.
For every race you propose to us one forecast bet, say the AB.
There are the following possibilities:

A wins, B finishes second - it's a bingo
A wins, B fails to finish second - loss
A fails to win, B finishes second - loss
A fails to win, B does n't finish second - loss

Now as you see the first two cases where you got the winner is the same as if you were giving us win bets.
So let's suppose your score is an honourable 1 out of 4 for the winners.
What will happen with the forecasts ?
Should be 1 out of 16, should n't it ? Or perhaps a bit more because to predict "A" you have to deal with the entire field, but to predict "B" you have to deal with the field minus one.

But evertyime I do this kind of scorekeeping I find less than that.
Less than (strike rate for winners)^2 that is.

Is this a general trait I wonder ?
 
I wouldn't profess to being an expert, I don't think such a thing exists in horse racing, it's hard to predict, even the 'expert' pundits are pretty useless.

Not sure about your trait question, all I would say is that it's hard enough picking the winner, so 2nd probably isn't any easier.

I do quite like a forecast though, but I usually forget to play them, it's something I need to play a bit more often I think, especially reverse forecast if you fancy two horses in the race, or those big handicaps where you get 16/1 1st, 25/1 2nd, 18/1 3rd (or something similar) - if you were able to get lucky and pick the right order you'd get a huge return. I remember that Ozzie guy last year won 5 million dollars from picking the correct finishing order in a 12 runner race, all 12 runners in the right order!
 
Clement Freud would use a strategy of a win bet on his preferred selection and include the danger as a Exacta bet with the 2nd preferred and first preferred in that order. This type of bet is now called a clement
 
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