• Hi Guest Just in case you were not aware I wanted to highlight that you can now get a free 7 day trial of Horseracebase here.
    We have a lot of members who are existing users of Horseracebase so help is always available if needed, as well as dedicated section of the fourm here.
    Best Wishes
    AR

Introducing AI Deep Dive: Horse Racing Podcasts!

cpw

cpw

Yearling
Ever wondered how AI can transform horse racing analysis? Dive into my brand-new podcast series, AI Deep Dive, where cutting-edge artificial intelligence takes the reins! 🎧 Racing Winners 290924-4-40 Deep Dive.mp4

Each episode is 100% generated by AI – from the analysis to the script. Expect deep insights, predictive trends, and an entirely new way to explore the world of horse racing. Whether you're a seasoned punter or new to the sport, this podcast is tailored to give you an edge in your racing knowledge.

🔍 Why Listen?
  • Exclusive, data-driven analysis of upcoming races
  • Expert-level insights generated through advanced AI models
  • Unique perspectives on horses, jockeys, and race conditions
Listen now to see how AI is reshaping the world of horse racing predictions! And if you can hop over to chat.racingwinners.io to ask the AI Assistant questions on all of the Flat handicap races of the day. Let me know what you think.

Stay tuned for the latest episodes and never miss a winning race! 🏆
 
MILLER SPIRIT emerges as a formidable contender in the 3.30 BETFRED APPRENTICES' race at Epsom, boasting an impressive array of attributes that make it a top choice. With the best top speed figure overall, this horse has demonstrated exceptional pace, a critical factor in securing victory on the track. Its suitability to the course is further evidenced by its previous wins at both the distance and the course itself, highlighting its adaptability and familiarity with the racing conditions. The combination of these factors, along with its status as a course winner, underscores MILLER SPIRIT's potential to excel in this race.

In addition to its speed and course suitability, MILLER SPIRIT is a RPR Par Qualifier and a Speed Par Qualifier, indicating its capability to perform well in races of this type. The horse's strike rate and fitness levels are commendable, ensuring that it is in peak condition for the competition. The presence of a jockey with only one ride status further enhances its prospects, as this often indicates a focused and strategic approach to the race. Moreover, MILLER SPIRIT is at the top of the official Racing Unadjusted Handicap Rating, a testament to its superior form and ability to compete at a high level.

The class horse status of MILLER SPIRIT is a significant factor in its favour, reflecting its consistent performance and ability to compete against strong fields. With a total weighted score of 36.52, it stands out as the leading choice for this race. The combination of speed, course familiarity, and class makes MILLER SPIRIT a compelling option for punters and racing enthusiasts alike. Its proven track record and strategic advantages position it as a strong contender to watch in the 3.30 race at Epsom.

So says the AI
 
Took a look at the 4.40 Epsom. (podcast race)

My A.I. agreed with the Arkalia Flynn selection, however, it also managed to find the winner Marcella within the Value win range.

The win stake is calculated against the Tissue price. If the BSP returns less than the tissue price it won't match, so no bet. In this instance, the BSP was 15.50, so the stake went on the full 15.50 not the tissue price of 5.00 hence the great profit.

Bigger value = Bigger Stake.

1727624802259.png
 
DuckandDive said:
Took a look at the 4.40 Epsom. (podcast race)

My A.I. agreed with the Arkalia Flynn selection, however, it also managed to find the winner Marcella within the Value win range.

The win stake is calculated against the Tissue price. If the BSP returns less than the tissue price it won't match, so no bet. In this instance, the BSP was 15.50, so the stake went on the full 15.50 not the tissue price of 5.00 hence the great profit.

Bigger value = Bigger Stake.

View attachment 151066
Click to expand...
He blew the start so I will have to reserve judgement.
 
themaster13 said:
Hi there, are you guys still doing this? Would be interested to know more from you both. Thanks.
Click to expand...

The OP was trying to sell a website A.I. service which clashed with the rules of this website. He can still post, but not advertise his wares.

There was another thread that was promising based on A.I too. It's a subject that I personally think is of interest and there are different angles, I'm sure, yet to be explored.

I tend to dip in and out and may take a view on stuff, but am always willing to learn and adapt to new thinking/ideas.
 
Interesting, I'm just not sure AI is quite there yet, they tend to just parrot things other people have said/written back at the moment, thankfully, I've seen too many sci-fi movies to get on board with AI, surely it will come to the logical conclusion that humans are the problem, but hopefully it's an Isaac Asimov future where it's benign.
 
I have been using AI GPT Custom Chat "Horse Racing Expert".

It is completely free to use with a free GPT account with slight restrictions on the data you can upload for each query.

Go to OpenAI ChatGPT
Check the "Explore GPTs" section if available.
Search for "Horse Racing Expert" to see it publicly listed.

There are four preset Chat Starters. The one I use the most is "Check for False Favourites in this race, please." you then are asked to upload your race data:

"Please upload the race data, including Betfair Exchange odds, Timeform data, or any other relevant sources. I’ll then analyse the market movements and identify any potential false favourites based on price trends, form, and underlying race conditions."

False Favourite Analysis – 20:25 Turf Paradise (USA) - Race 2 (6f Mdn Claiming)​

Market Favourite: Track Robber (2.2)​

  • Form: (435) – Finished 5th last start, beaten 8.5 lengths, inconsistent.
  • Recent Layoff: Last raced 294 days ago – a major red flag in a maiden claiming race.
  • Trainer Change: Previously with Esteban Martinez, now with Vann Belvoir – may improve but uncertainty exists.
  • Speed Figures: Not dominant for a favourite; no standout performances.
  • Key Concern: The long layoff suggests fitness issues or a lack of progression, which is risky at short odds (2.2).
✅ Conclusion: FALSE FAVOURITE

  • The price is too short for a horse that hasn’t raced in nearly 10 months.
  • Likely to be vulnerable to race-fit contenders like Royal Curlin or Racer Rex.

Contender Analysis​

Best Value Alternatives​

✅ Racer Rex (9.0)

  • Last Start: 3rd in a similar race, beaten only 1.75 lengths.
  • Proven at Track: Good showing at Turf Paradise, unlike Track Robber (long layoff).
  • Each-Way Play: Big price compared to favourite but better credentials.
✅ Royal Curlin (6.5)

  • Finished 2nd in last two runs, including at this distance.
  • Consistency: Always thereabouts, while others like Track Robber and Jim Bob are inconsistent.
  • Leads the Field: Likely pace-setter; if the track favours front-runners, this horse could steal it.
✅ Jim Bob (3.4) – Danger to Favourite

  • Unknown Factor: Only one run (6th at Belmont) but trained by Marcus Vitali.
  • Blinkers On: Could spark improvement, but fitness is a concern.

Betting Strategy​

🔴 Lay Track Robber (2.2) – Overpriced given long layoff and weak last run.
🟢 Back Royal Curlin (6.5) EW – Strong recent form, consistent.
🟢 Back Racer Rex (9.0) EW – Has the ability to place or even win.

Verdict​

Track Robber is a false favourite – hasn’t raced in 294 days, inconsistent, and overpriced. Look to Royal Curlin and Racer Rex as better-value options.

Did it win the race?

ChatGPT said:​

In the 20:25 Maiden Claiming race at Turf Paradise on Wednesday, 12 February 2025, Jim Bob secured victory. The 4-year-old gelding, trained by Marcus Vitali and ridden by jockey Jose Asencio, won at odds of 11/4.

The pre-race favourite, Track Robber, finished last in the 8-horse field. This outcome aligns with our earlier assessment that Track Robber was a false favourite due to its long layoff and inconsistent form.
Royal Curlin, one of our highlighted value alternatives, finished fourth. While not in the top three, this performance was respectable given the competitive field.
Overall, the race results validate our analysis, particularly regarding the vulnerability of the favourite, Track Robber.

More predictions are published daily at Expert Betting Strategies for Horse Racing Enthusiasts | Horse Racing Hobbyist which is also FREE to use with NO affiliate ads or nonsense.

I would be very interested to hear how you get on.

Best regards
AJ the Hobbyist
 
Race-by-Race Predictions

🏇 13:20 Carlisle (2m3f Novice Handicap Hurdle)

1️⃣ Win Selection: Bishbashbosh
Trainer: Ross O'Sullivan | Jockey: T P Harney
Key Form: A consistent Irish raider who was fourth of 16 in a competitive Down Royal handicap hurdle over 17.2f. The step up in trip looks a plus, and he has valuable experience in big-field events.
Why: Bishbashbosh has been running solidly in Ireland and brings strong handicap experience to the table. He was unlucky last time when left poorly placed but still finished well. The step up in trip suits, and with the benefit of a strong conditional jockey, he looks well positioned to break his maiden in handicaps.

2️⃣ Second Place: C'Est Different
Trainer: Sam Thomas | Jockey: Dylan Johnston
Key Form: Lightly-raced but has shown promise in novice hurdles. His seventh at Sandown last time came in a strong race, and he's stepping up in trip, which should bring out improvement.
Why: Trainer Sam Thomas has his horses in good order, and C’Est Different has been running in races that are stronger than this. With the extra distance and a more suitable test in handicaps, he has every chance of running a big race on his handicap debut.

3️⃣ Third Place: Wee Alki
Trainer: Susan Corbett | Jockey: Jack Power
Key Form: Unexposed with a solid fifth in a Kelso novice hurdle over 2m7f. The drop in trip could suit, and a first-time tongue strap suggests they expect improvement.
Why: Wee Alki has been running in novice hurdles and is now stepping into handicaps from a potentially lenient mark. He is unexposed and could find significant improvement in this company. The tongue strap could be a key addition.

🎯 Wildcard Pick: Kingston Rock
Trainer: Gary Rutherford | Jockey: Edward Austin
Key Form: A respectable fifth at Newcastle in a handicap hurdle last time. He has been well-backed in previous runs and has the ability to figure here.
Why: The market has been supporting Kingston Rock, and though he was below par at Newcastle, that run can be excused. He is dropping in grade, and if the pace sets up well for him, he could surprise at an attractive price.

Notes from AJ the Hobbyist: I'm waiting until much closer to off time to see which 'obby Picks (dropping Hs since the dog chewed my denture) are drifters or steamers, based on Betfair odds at the time of publishing and updated Timeform data.
Key Reminders:
Parading: Look for calm, focused horses with a good walk—avoid those sweating excessively or agitated.
Going Down: Smooth, controlled canter = positive. Overly keen or reluctant = caution.
At the Post: Composed behaviour signals readiness; restlessness, rearing, or sweating could be negatives.
Odds Market Sentiment:
Steamers (shortening odds): Positive market confidence, but watch for overbet favourites.
Drifters (lengthening odds): Could signal trainer/jockey concerns—or just market overreaction, offering value.
Keep emotions out—trust the data, the visuals, and the odds shifts. 🎯
 
Query completed 2 minutes before the off:

False Favourite Analysis – 13:20 Carlisle (Novice Handicap Hurdle, 2m3f, Good to Soft)​

Favourite: Kingston Rock (Current Odds: 3.55 – 3.75 on Betfair)​

  • Market Movement: Initially priced at 5/2 (3.5) but has drifted slightly.
  • Last Run Analysis: Finished 5th of 12 in a handicap hurdle at Newcastle over 16.9f, where it went too fast early and faded.
  • Course & Distance Form: 0-12 career record, never won at this track or distance.
  • Speed & Stamina: Has been racing prominently but struggling to finish. The extra distance today may not be a positive.
  • Trainer & Jockey Form:
    • Trainer (Gary Rutherford): 14% strike rate last 5 years, not prolific.
    • Jockey (Edward Austin): 0-3 in last 14 days, 14% strike rate overall.

Concerns for Kingston Rock as a Favourite​

  1. Winless Record (0-12) – Hasn’t won under rules despite multiple attempts.
  2. Early Speed Issues – Races prominently but has struggled to see races out.
  3. Drifting Market Price – Early movement suggests limited confidence from punters.

Potential False Favourite? YES​

Kingston Rock has been backed but is winless and has questionable stamina. It could struggle to justify favouritism, making it a potential false favourite.

Alternative Value Selections​

  1. Bishbashbosh (Current Odds: 6.4 – 7.4)
    • Irish raider with recent good form.
    • Fourth in a competitive 16-runner handicap hurdle at Down Royal.
    • Step up in trip looks ideal.
    • Trainer has a solid record with travelling horses.
  2. C’Est Different (Current Odds: 3.95 – 4.4)
    • Trainer Sam Thomas has a strong record at Carlisle (3-6).
    • Lightly raced and making a handicap debut.
    • Step up in trip should suit.
    • Computational form rating suggests potential improvement.

Conclusion​

Kingston Rock is a false favourite based on poor win record, questionable stamina, and market drift. The best value options appear to be Bishbashbosh (Irish form and trip suitability) and C’Est Different (trainer’s strong record and unexposed profile).

I backed Bishbashbosh win, 2tbp & 3tbp :( C’Est Different WON!
 
📌 Gamble Responsibly!

Notes from AJ the Hobbyist: I'm waiting until much closer to off time to see which 'obby Picks (dropping Hs since the dog chewed my denture) are drifters or steamers, based on Betfair odds at the time of publishing and updated Timeform data.
Key Reminders:
Parading: Look for calm, focused horses with a good walk—avoid those sweating excessively or agitated.
Going Down: Smooth, controlled canter = positive. Overly keen or reluctant = caution.
At the Post: Composed behaviour signals readiness; restlessness, rearing, or sweating could be negatives.
Odds Market Sentiment:
Steamers (shortening odds): Positive market confidence, but watch for overbet favourites.
Drifters (lengthening odds): Could signal trainer/jockey concerns—or just market overreaction, offering value.
Keep emotions out—trust the data, the visuals, and the odds shifts. 🎯

Race-by-Race Predictions

🏇 Race 1 - 13:50 Market Rasen (2m Maiden Hurdle)

1️⃣ Win Selection: Lundi Noir
Trainer: Tom Lacey | Jockey: Stan Sheppard
Key Form: Well-bred son of Doctor Dino making hurdles debut. Dam a bumper winner, and closely related to a 17f hurdle winner. Strong market support suggests he’s ready to go first time out.
Why: This looks a winnable maiden, and Lundi Noir brings an appealing pedigree for the job. Tom Lacey’s runners often go well fresh, and the market confidence behind him is notable. With no standout proven hurdlers in the field, his potential gives him the edge.

2️⃣ 2nd Place: Wallquatari
Trainer: Donald McCain | Jockey: Brian Hughes
Key Form: Showed clear ability when second at Doncaster, pulling well clear of the rest. Previously fell on debut at Stratford but was still in contention.
Why: The most experienced of the leading contenders, Wallquatari has a strong form line through his Doncaster run. He should improve from that effort and goes well fresh. Brian Hughes is a key booking, and he rates the main danger to the selection.

3️⃣ 3rd Place: Miners Gamble
Trainer: Brian Ellison | Jockey: Craig Nichol
Key Form: A fair handicapper on the Flat, rated 63, with a win over 1m2f. Hurdles debutant but has potential based on Flat ability.
Why: He’s an intriguing runner with enough ability on the Flat to make an impact. The way the race develops will be crucial, but he’s got a solid middle-distance Flat profile and could be staying on late in what might be a steadily run contest.

🎯 Wildcard Pick: Crown Of India
Trainer: Alex Hales | Jockey: Kielan Woods
Key Form: Fairly useful Flat maiden but looked tricky to ride on hurdles debut when finishing 7th at Warwick. Could improve if learning from that experience.
Why: He has some ability, but his attitude is a concern. If he settles better and applies himself, his Flat ability (78-rated) could see him challenge the places. A risky but intriguing each-way option at decent odds.
 
Query completed 2 minutes before the off:

False Favourite Analysis – 13:50 Market Rasen (Juvenile Maiden Hurdle, 2m1f, Good to Soft)​

Current Favourite: Lundi Noir (2.36)​

  • Trainer: Tom Lacey
  • Jockey: Stan Sheppard
  • Form: N/A (Debutant)
  • Pedigree: By Doctor Dino, dam won a bumper in France.
  • Market Movement: Opened at 6/4, now into 5/4, indicating support.
  • Key Factors:
    • Unraced: No actual racecourse experience.
    • Trainer Form: 15% strike rate, stable turning a corner recently.
    • Market Strength: Bookmakers seem keen to take it on, initially pricing it longer.
    • Unknown Ability over Hurdles: While well-bred, no evidence of jumping ability in a race setting.
    • Timeform Ratings: Doesn’t stand out significantly.

Main Rival: Wallquatari (4.0)​

  • Trainer: Donald McCain
  • Jockey: Brian Hughes
  • Form: F2
    • Fell on debut but finished second in a decent Doncaster maiden hurdle.
  • Betting Shift: Drifted from 5/6 to 11/4.
  • Key Factors:
    • Has Race Experience: Unlike Lundi Noir, he has proven ability over hurdles.
    • Trained by a Leading National Hunt Yard: McCain’s juveniles tend to improve significantly.
    • Ran Well Last Time: Finished 2¼ lengths behind a fair sort at Doncaster.
    • Concerns: Best form on better ground, not guaranteed to handle softer conditions.

Is Lundi Noir a False Favourite?​

🔸 Yes – Highly Vulnerable

  • No racecourse experience. Wallquatari has proven ability at this level.
  • Market strength is questionable. Opened longer and was backed, but market could be overrating stable form.
  • Debutants often take time to learn hurdling. No guarantee he jumps fluently first time.
  • Opposition has substance. Wallquatari has solid hurdles experience and should be race fit.

Best Betting Approach​

  • Lay Lundi Noir for the win (if price stays short).
  • Back Wallquatari EW or in the W/O Lundi Noir market.
  • Consider Miners Gamble (9.6) as a dark horse – Flat form suggests could be underestimated.
Wallquatari represents much safer value at 11/4+ considering proven race form compared to the unknown quantity of Lundi Noir.

Results Market Rasen Tue, 18th Feb, 2025​

Going - Good to Soft (Soft in places).
1.50
Join Racing TV Now Juvenile Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)(Class 4) of £7,000 2m 125yds
1st

Lundi Noir (FR) (3)
11/10fav
Tote £2.10 £1.10
2nd
4L
Wallquatari (FR) (5)
10/3
£1.30
3rd
0.5L
Miners Gamble (IRE) (4)
13/2
£1.30
4th
3.25L
Crown Of India (IRE) (1)
10/3

OFF 1.50. Time 4m. 22.86 secs8 Ran
 
📌 Gamble Responsibly!

Notes from AJ the Hobbyist: I'm waiting until much closer to off time to see which 'obby Picks (dropping Hs since the dog chewed my denture) are drifters or steamers, based on Betfair odds at the time of publishing and updated Timeform data.
Key Reminders:
Parading: Look for calm, focused horses with a good walk—avoid those sweating excessively or agitated.
Going Down: Smooth, controlled canter = positive. Overly keen or reluctant = caution.
At the Post: Composed behaviour signals readiness; restlessness, rearing, or sweating could be negatives.
Odds Market Sentiment:
Steamers (shortening odds): Positive market confidence, but watch for overbet favourites.
Drifters (lengthening odds): Could signal trainer/jockey concerns—or just market overreaction, offering value.
Keep emotions out—trust the data, the visuals, and the odds shifts. 🎯

Race-by-Race Predictions

🏇 Race 1 - 14:00 Ludlow (2m Novices’ Hurdle)

1️⃣ No Questions Asked
Trainer: Ben Pauling | Jockey: Ben Jones
Key Form: Highly consistent performer with a solid bumper background. Runner-up in a Listed novice at Huntingdon last time, confirming his class at this level. Prior wins at Hereford and Carlisle add further substance.
Why: By far the standout in this field, with a proven ability at this level and experience over hurdles. The market has him as a strong favourite, and rightly so—he sets a clear standard. Expect a dominant performance.

2️⃣ John Barbour
Trainer: Fergal O’Brien | Jockey: J J Burke
Key Form: Impressive winner on bumper debut at Uttoxeter in November, but pulled too hard when fourth next time.
Why: If he settles and jumps fluently on hurdles debut, he has the engine to chase home the favourite. O’Brien’s yard is in good form, and his bumper experience suggests he’ll handle this step up in discipline. (Coldjack's Early Doors pick for today's Patent)

3️⃣ Tracking Treasure
Trainer: Matt Sheppard | Jockey: Stan Sheppard
Key Form: Best effort to date came when third over this C&D a fortnight ago. Though the form of that race isn’t particularly strong, it was a step in the right direction.
Why: Course experience is always a plus, and with minimal depth in the field, he looks best placed to pick up minor honours again.

🎯 Wildcard Pick: Welcheston Warrier
Trainer: Clive Boultbee-Brooks | Jockey: Richard Patrick
Key Form: Brought down last time when well beaten but showed minor promise at Worcester in October.
Why: A speculative selection for those seeking a big-priced each-way play. If he builds on that Worcester run and benefits from a clearer round, he could surprise a few.
 

False Favourite Analysis – 14:00 Ludlow (19th Feb 2025)​

Market Favourite: No Questions Asked (1.13 - 1.15 on Betfair Exchange)​

  • Trainer: Ben Pauling (RTF 48%)
  • Jockey: Ben Jones
  • Form: 6-1312
  • Recent Performance:
    • 2nd (6 runners, Listed, 2m3f 137y, GS, BSP 15.97) at Huntingdon, beaten ½ length.
    • 1st (14 runners, 2m 53y, GS, BSP 5.26) at Hereford, won comfortably.
    • 3rd (9 runners, 2m 128y, Gd, BSP 1.53) at Doncaster, beaten as 1/2 favourite (worrying sign).
    • 1st (9 runners, 2m1f 33y, GS, BSP 1.50) at Carlisle, won as expected.

Is No Questions Asked a False Favourite?​

✅ Reasons to Back the Favourite:

  • Highest Class Form: He ran 2nd in a Listed Novice Hurdle at Huntingdon, far superior to anything else in this field.
  • Proven at Distance & Going: Two hurdle wins over 2m-2m1f on good to soft.
  • Only Real Challenger is a Hurdles Debutant: John Barbour (7/2) is an interesting newcomer but lacks hurdle experience.
  • Ben Pauling Stable in Good Form: 23% strike rate in the last 14 days.
❌ Reasons He Might be Vulnerable:

  • Failed at Short Odds Before: His loss at 1/2F in a weaker Doncaster race raises slight concerns.
  • Drop in Trip: 2m3f seemed ideal last time; is he quick enough for a sharper 2m at Ludlow?
  • 1.13 (88% Implied Probability) is VERY Short: Even top horses lose 1 in 10 races.

Verdict:​

Not a clear false favourite but represents poor value at 1.13. If you must bet, the value lies elsewhere:1️⃣ Lay at 1.13 for a trading position.
2️⃣ John Barbour (7/2) Each-Way – Unexposed and stable in form.
3️⃣ Forecast Bet: No Questions Asked 1st, John Barbour 2nd.
 
Hi all, my AI horse racing selections
UK horse racing events on Monday, February 24, 2025. All selections have odds of 3/1 or below and are based on recent performances, track conditions, and jockey statistics:

Don Brocco (Ayr, 2:25 PM, 3/1): This Gary Rutherford-trained nine-year-old is coming off a win at Carlisle three weeks ago over an extended three miles2. He's well-suited for today's heavy ground conditions, with all three of his career wins on soft ground. Despite a weight increase, he's still running off a relatively low mark of 87, suggesting good value2.

Runcok (Punchestown, 2:00 PM, odds not provided but likely favorite): Making his hurdles debut after showing promise in bumpers, Runcok is well-regarded in what appears to be a less competitive maiden hurdle3. His prominence in the betting suggests strong winning potential.

Sarafina Mshairi (Wolverhampton, 7:30 PM, odds not provided but likely favorite): This Cable Bay filly was narrowly beaten on her handicap debut and is expected to improve over this shorter trip3. With a low handicap mark of 58 and a 3lb claim from jockey Jack Doughty, she looks well-positioned to succeed.

Gege Ville (Ayr, 4:35 PM, 5/2): Despite a limited racing history, Gege Ville impressed with a win at Haydock in December after a long absence7. He has a strong record on flat tracks (121 from 3 starts) and retains jockey Conor Rabbitt, who has a good record with last-time-out winners.

Visibility (Wolverhampton, 5:00 PM, odds not provided but likely to shorten): Although finishing sixth in his last race, Visibility returns to amateur riders' company under Freddie Tett, a combination that has produced two wins and a close second in three previous outings7. He's also 4lb lower than his last course and distance win in October.
 
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