• Hi Guest, The forum will be moving hosts on 26 July and as such will be closed from Midday until the move has completed.
    As we will be with new hosts it may take a while before DNS get updated so it could take while before you can get back on the forum.
    I think it will take at least 4 hours but could easily be 48!
    Ark Royal
  • There seems to be a problem with some alerts not being emailed to members. I have told the hosts and they are investigating.
  • Hi Guest Just in case you were not aware I wanted to highlight that you can now get a 20% discount on Inform Racing.
    Simply enter the coupon code ukbettingform when subscribing here.
    We have a lot of members who are existing users of Inform Racing so help is always available if needed.
    Best Wishes
    AR
  • Sorry for the ongoing issues that you may have been experiencing whilst using the forum lately

    It really is frustrating when the forum slows down or Server Error 500 pops up.

    Apparently the hosts acknowledge there is a problem.
    Thank you for using our services and sorry for the experienced delay!
    Unfortunately, these errors are due to a higher server load. Our senior department knows about the issue and they are working towards a permanent resolution of the issue, however, I'd advise you to consider using our new cPanel cloud solutions: https://www.tsohost.com/web-hosting


    I will have to investigate what the differences are with what We have know compared to the alternative service they want us to migrate to.
    Keep safe.
    AR
  • Hi Guest Just in case you were not aware I wanted to highlight that you can now get a free 7 day trial of Horseracebase here.
    We have a lot of members who are existing users of Horseracebase so help is always available if needed, as well as dedicated section of the fourm here.
    Best Wishes
    AR

Industry average odds and ricks

Hello all, I'm using this as a place holder as I am testing a spreadsheet to calculate industry average odds from those on Irish racing and just betting, hypothetical, any horse that has its odds out of line with the other bookies.

I'll post the spreadsheet at the end of this month as I think 30 odd days will be enough to show if the Idea has merit

WATCH this space!
 
So far I've looked at 5 races since the 28th and 3 have shown a profit, the race for today is the 3.40 kelso.

Profit on investment is currently 66% but if ballyoisin wins today that will drop, if cracking destiny wins it goes up a chunk, if I remember right the other horse is aye right

I have done this testing an article I read based on a paper by a university stats department that did this and made a nice profit until their bookie accounts got restricted

To make this work, if I can prove it does work, I think you'd need a team with each member having accounts with 1 or 2 accounts to make the likelihood of getting restricted as small as possible

But I'm counting my eggs to early

Good luck and stay well
 
It's making a profit so far but I think I have to change my approach to betting, hypothetically, just one bet per horse rather than any bookie with greater than the average odds. I think that is better. I'll rework the spreadsheet this weekend and see if that is better in reality

Good luck and stay well
 
Because of the multiple bets the POI dropped to the 30% range but reworking the spreadsheet pushed it into the high 70% range. I wonder how long that will last?

Good luck and stay well
 
I thought it might be helpful to show the results after 11 days

I look at about 12 noon and pick 1 race a day I would mind looking at myself

I hope you find this useful
 

Attachments

  • Test races from 28.09.2021 onwards.xlsx
    104.9 KB · Views: 11

Keerching

Newbie
So if I am reading the spreadsheet correctly a selection has to be 1 point or more than the average odds for a bet to be placed?
Criteria for selecting the race is?
 
Hello K Keerching , it only needs to be 10% above the average odds and the races are selected as being handicaps with a decent prize and a limited number of runners. I'm trying to keep all the horse's on the screen at the same time so I really don't want to be scrolling up and down trying to work out if a horse has any bets

I looked at the 7.00 as well last night which also lost

Today it's the 4.40 Goodwood in which there are 9 bets mainly match and b365

I need to put another sheet together to find which bookies it is worth having accounts with as some never seem to have odds out of line with the average

Thanks for your questions

Good luck and stay well
 
I've added an extra sheet for bookies that had winning bets and B365 and Matchbook seem the best bookies to have accounts with so a much smaller team would be needed so far.

I lost 19pts over the weekend but I've made some back today with my hypothetical bets on tiger crusade today

Looks like a roughly 50% strike rate and in excess of 30% profit on investment. I don't think that is bad for an idea that takes 10 minutes to apply. Still early days though

Good luck and stay well
 
I had an 8pt loss yesterday but looked at 2 races today and 4.5pts profit today

The bookies best so far are b365, Victor, match and maybe bfsp or pp

So to get on simultaneously it would need a team of 4 and since threeish are traditional bookies the option of boosts are available to further increase profits

Good luck and stay well
 
Lost 5pts today.

Looks like each team member would need at least a 20pt bank each, I'll continue with to the end of the month but I don't think I'd personally try to use it.

I'll put the latest version of the spreadsheet on the forum Saturday or Sunday and the forum can decide if it is worth further effort

Good luck and stay well
 
As promised latest version of the spreadsheet which is slowly bleeding money away
 

Attachments

  • Test races from 28.09.2021 onwards.xlsx
    150 KB · Views: 1

Alien

Yearling
Hi Hedgehog.
I have found many times, that as soon as you stop persisting with something, it usually starts winning!
 
Thanks Alien Alien, the support is much appreciated but the idea is just breaking even at the moment. I'll run it to the end of the month but not hopeful

Good luck and stay well
 

Attachments

  • Test races from 28.09.2021 onwards.xlsx
    178.9 KB · Views: 1
Last uploading of the spreadsheet as I am finishing with the idea today, Almost 19% profit on investment over the 34 days but that is tempered by the fact most of the wins are with Match and I didn't allow for commission. A late flourish saw some long price winners and it might have been worthwhile noting the bets with Match but betting with a traditional bookie to get the benefit of BOG.

I'll leave it to the forum to decide if this idea has merit given at one point almost half the bank would have been lost and a lot of people would have lost heart at that point me included. It at least shows the academics weren't BSing and the idea is good enough to have had accounts restricted which is what happened to them.

Good luck and stay well
 

Attachments

  • Test races from 28.09.2021 onwards.xlsx
    204.1 KB · Views: 0
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