Industry average odds and ricks

[hedgehog]

Hello all, I'm using this as a place holder as I am testing a spreadsheet to calculate industry average odds from those on Irish racing and just betting, hypothetical, any horse that has its odds out of line with the other bookies.

I'll post the spreadsheet at the end of this month as I think 30 odd days will be enough to show if the Idea has merit

WATCH this space!

 

[hedgehog]

So far I've looked at 5 races since the 28th and 3 have shown a profit, the race for today is the 3.40 kelso.

Profit on investment is currently 66% but if ballyoisin wins today that will drop, if cracking destiny wins it goes up a chunk, if I remember right the other horse is aye right

I have done this testing an article I read based on a paper by a university stats department that did this and made a nice profit until their bookie accounts got restricted

To make this work, if I can prove it does work, I think you'd need a team with each member having accounts with 1 or 2 accounts to make the likelihood of getting restricted as small as possible

But I'm counting my eggs to early

Good luck and stay well

 

[hedgehog]

It's making a profit so far but I think I have to change my approach to betting, hypothetically, just one bet per horse rather than any bookie with greater than the average odds. I think that is better. I'll rework the spreadsheet this weekend and see if that is better in reality

Good luck and stay well

 

[hedgehog]

Because of the multiple bets the POI dropped to the 30% range but reworking the spreadsheet pushed it into the high 70% range. I wonder how long that will last?

Good luck and stay well

 

[hedgehog]

I thought it might be helpful to show the results after 11 days

I look at about 12 noon and pick 1 race a day I would mind looking at myself

I hope you find this useful

 

[Keerching]

So if I am reading the spreadsheet correctly a selection has to be 1 point or more than the average odds for a bet to be placed?
Criteria for selecting the race is?

 

[hedgehog]

Hello K Keerching , it only needs to be 10% above the average odds and the races are selected as being handicaps with a decent prize and a limited number of runners. I'm trying to keep all the horse's on the screen at the same time so I really don't want to be scrolling up and down trying to work out if a horse has any bets

I looked at the 7.00 as well last night which also lost

Today it's the 4.40 Goodwood in which there are 9 bets mainly match and b365

I need to put another sheet together to find which bookies it is worth having accounts with as some never seem to have odds out of line with the average

Thanks for your questions

Good luck and stay well

 

[hedgehog]

I've added an extra sheet for bookies that had winning bets and B365 and Matchbook seem the best bookies to have accounts with so a much smaller team would be needed so far.

I lost 19pts over the weekend but I've made some back today with my hypothetical bets on tiger crusade today

Looks like a roughly 50% strike rate and in excess of 30% profit on investment. I don't think that is bad for an idea that takes 10 minutes to apply. Still early days though

Good luck and stay well

 

[hedgehog]

I had an 8pt loss yesterday but looked at 2 races today and 4.5pts profit today

The bookies best so far are b365, Victor, match and maybe bfsp or pp

So to get on simultaneously it would need a team of 4 and since threeish are traditional bookies the option of boosts are available to further increase profits

Good luck and stay well

 

[hedgehog]

Lost 5pts today.

 

[hedgehog]

Lost 5pts today.

Looks like each team member would need at least a 20pt bank each, I'll continue with to the end of the month but I don't think I'd personally try to use it.

I'll put the latest version of the spreadsheet on the forum Saturday or Sunday and the forum can decide if it is worth further effort

Good luck and stay well

 

[hedgehog]

As promised latest version of the spreadsheet which is slowly bleeding money away

 

[hedgehog]

The next bet is likely out of the nominal 20pt bank. Not impressed so far

 

[hedgehog]

Does anyone think I should persist with this?

Good luck and stay well

 

[hedgehog]

Won 2pts yesterday lost 3.5pts today, still losing.

Good luck and stay well

 

[Alien]

Hi Hedgehog.
I have found many times, that as soon as you stop persisting with something, it usually starts winning!

 

[hedgehog]

Thanks Alien, the support is much appreciated but the idea is just breaking even at the moment. I'll run it to the end of the month but not hopeful

Good luck and stay well

 

[hedgehog]

Last uploading of the spreadsheet as I am finishing with the idea today, Almost 19% profit on investment over the 34 days but that is tempered by the fact most of the wins are with Match and I didn't allow for commission. A late flourish saw some long price winners and it might have been worthwhile noting the bets with Match but betting with a traditional bookie to get the benefit of BOG.

I'll leave it to the forum to decide if this idea has merit given at one point almost half the bank would have been lost and a lot of people would have lost heart at that point me included. It at least shows the academics weren't BSing and the idea is good enough to have had accounts restricted which is what happened to them.

Good luck and stay well