JennyK
Gelding
hedgehogThe problem with horses like Supreme King last week is not highlighting them, but given that they are intrinsically speculative, judging whether the odds represent value.
VDW knew that the market was a good guide in that, on average favourites won more often than 2nd favourites, etc etc, but also that it was a very long way from infallible, with most favourites losing. I think he was saying that if the market made a horse favourite and it lost badly it is worth trying to work out the reason, because it is likely to be relevant to the horse's chance next time out.
There are always several possibilities. The market may have been unjustified in making the horse favourite - maybe over-influenced by something other than the horse's form. If the market position was justifed, did something go wrong in the race, a very slow start in a sprint, being badly baulked when starting a run etc etc? If one can see no such reason, we have to consider others.
Moving from the general to the particular, was the market justified in making Supreme King favourite on 04/12/25, bearing in mind that it saw it as essentially a two horse race with Supreme King going off at 9/4 and Fantasy Master 11/4? From a VDW perspective it was slightly perverse, as Fantasy Master was the class/form horse while Supreme King was not a "form" horse. But leaving VDW considerations aside, Supreme King had by far the best win in the field in 2025 and it was reasonable that he should be at or near the front of the market.
So how to understand his poor run? The Post's comment was:
| "Took keen hold, prominent, lost ground but in touch with leaders over 4f out, weakened inside final furlong (op 5/2)" |
The Life's
"Prominent, pulled hard early, chased leaders 2f out, edged towards centre when ridden 1f out, soon weakened op 5/2."
No great issue in running,seemingly, and I can see nothing in Supreme King's history to suggest that the conditions on the day were wrong for him.
So, an unexplained poor run and worth watching what happens next.
He came out a fortnight later in a race of similar class, and again his history suggested nothing adverse in the conditions.
In the field, two horses had much better "exposed" form; Ay Gee Ell had won lto and Vince Lombardi had come a close second on his last run. No surprise to see them at the head of the market. But in terms of back class, Supreme King had much the best in the field in 2025, at a level well capable of winning the race (he was also the VDW class horse in the race). But coming into it on the back of an 8th, beaten over 6l, understandable that he was less popular with the market, and he went off 5th favourite in an eight horse race.
He might have run down the field again, when the VDW assumption would have been that he was in a period of not being in form which began on 19/11/25. But of course he won and the stewards were interested in the improvement in form. Given that the trainer's rep had no explanation, it seems unlikely that the horse had some minor health issue undiagnosed before the 04/12/25 race, because if he had, stating that would have been a reasonable explanation to the stewards. I think VDW would assume, because of the low price on 04/12/25, that the loss was not unwelcome.
He could of course not be sure; before the race, as suggested above, the horse might simply have been in a not in form period. But he might have thought 13/2 in that field, where there were obvious question marks about the market leaders, was a value bet.
