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Imponderables

DuckandDive

DuckandDive

Mare
Not a tipping or advice thread, just a look at a runner that catches the eye, that has something unexplainable/mysterious about it. Sometimes it might be after the race has run.

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Lingfield 3.07 8th December 2025

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A nine year old, that until March of this year, was running in Ireland (Dundalk). Transferred over to Charlie Wallis, maybe to run a couple more times during the winter before retiring....or so it might seem.

For sure, it's last 5 runs from July, 2 at Sandown of 76, then 75 over 1 mile, suggests a couple of easy runs, to start getting the mark down a little. The market agreed, 50/1 & 40/1. Subsequent runs over different distances in higher class races, have yielded 66/1, 200/1 and 50/1. The early 33/1 seemed fair.

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The Racing Post had it forecast @ 20/1.

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It's earlier winning form, over 2 years ago, around this time of year, was in a Class 5 over 1m2f, off a mark of 75.
It recorded a raw RPR of 84 (Equiv to an OR of 77). Today off 64 over 1m2f in a Class 6.

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Running Style

Reviewing most of its runs, it appears to be a held up horse that comes with a run if the pace is suitable to do so, but the last run at Dundalk was interesting and might go to explain, why it is no longer racing in Ireland. Off a mark of 72, it went off like the clappers, likely to piss of the Irish handicapper and get a sharp OR hike. It recorded an RPR of 76 (equiv to on OR of 70).

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Timeform rated that run as an 81, so that may suggest even higher Equiv to an OR of 74.

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As I write this, it's gone back out to 6/1.

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Chesham Chesham selection came with a wet sail to win. Big improvement from Enough Already.

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Hugh Taylor sums up a good underlying reason to consider his selection, (now 7/4f), although, on my own ratings, it has a bit to find against the likes of Call Glory (6/1+) & Superior Council (9/2+).

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Tactics will be key. A strong pace may set it up for a closer.

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WD @Hughtaylor. Travelled well into the race, once hit the front always looked the winner. Drifted to 3/1 in the end.

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i think its a case of is he ready to run and will he take to Tapeta being a slower track than Polytrack Call glory heads the my ratings but he has won on higher mark so could be head and shoulders above these
 
Nice post DuckandDive DuckandDive , i was just about to make the same point as K Kraldrew has just made about the surface, also a straight 6f can make a difference but my main point would be MOUNT RUAPEHU might simply have regressed/out of form, market support could well be down to HT.
The horse you mention CALL GLORY has raced off a mark of 82 now running off 47 so with SUPERIOR COUNCIL possibly getting an easy lead other than perhaps BERNIE THE BEAR the race might not be all that straightforward.
 
One thing, reviewing the race yesterday, is that there are many that know more than I do, a sort of Dunning-Kruger effect.

It's usually reflected in the market in some way, and in the case of Hugh Taylor, outlined in his article. The lowly handicap mark, a sign of retaining ability on a similar surface, and showing some enthusiasm in a recent run or slightly unlucky in running, were all the elements of a potential winner.

Converting Irish form OR to a UK form OR is also tricky to do.
 
DuckandDive said:
One thing, reviewing the race yesterday, is that there are many that know more than I do, a sort of Dunning-Kruger effect.

It's usually reflected in the market in some way, and in the case of Hugh Taylor, outlined in his article. The lowly handicap mark, a sign of retaining ability on a similar surface, and showing some enthusiasm in a recent run or slightly unlucky in running, were all the elements of a potential winner.

Converting Irish form OR to a UK form OR is also tricky to do.
Click to expand...
My take is yes you could always make a case for it to go very close to winning and that's what it did by about 1/2L having drifted out a little to 3/1.

ps...The sectionals for both divisions of that race might be informative.
 
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tacker said:
My take is yes you could always make a case for it to go very close to winning and that's what it did by about 1/2L having drifted out a little to 3/1.

ps...The sectionals for both divisions of that race might be informative.
Click to expand...
Having had a look at the sectionals they don't really demonstrate much more than MOUNT RUAPEHU was about half a second slower for the first furlong than GOLDMOYNE but little difference after that, so not what i expected.
 
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