How VDW decided between single bets and books

[Garry]

Hi JennyK,

There is little doubt that the Curragh, Leopardstown and perhaps Phoenix Park are the only Grade 1 courses in Ireland for the Flat. I doubt if VDW would have included horses with a sf of over 70 from these courses in his best “dozen” list, purely because there were very few Irish races shown in the Form Book for these courses through the 1980’s. Also, I doubt very much he would be following such horses in their Irish races. But all of this is just a matter of opinion.

The main reason for this post is to ask you how did you get Park Express 5th on ability for the Lancashire Oaks? Do you have her win record and win prize money won?

 

[JennyK]

G Garry

In a word, no.

I have the table below which I compiled some years ago when I had access to both 1985 and 1986 Form Books, but I've only the results of the calculations, not the win prize money nor number of races won.

Currently I have access to a 1986 Form Book, which shows Park Express as having had four races no wins that year prior to the Lancashire Oaks. The win(s) must have been in 1985, therefore.

I try to check all my old figures when I revisit a race now, but can't for the 1986 Lancashire Oaks without a 1985 Form Book. I'd be surprised if the figures in my table are unduly inaccurate, though, as the material for the races I have been able to check has generally been correct.

Mill On The Floss	100	1
Bambolona	77	2
Shtaifeh	35	3
Old Domesday Book	31	4
Park Express	24	5
Sue Grundy	24	5
Santiki	22	6
Fleeting Affair	20	7
Barsham	0	8

 

[JennyK]

I think only four of the 30 odd VDW selections which he stated were bets, certainties or outstanding bets were 3yo only races, those won by Derrylin, Park Express, Three Tails and Zilzal. On the numbers I have:

Derrylin was 3rd on the standard ability rating and probably either 1st or 2nd on the time merit rating (would need the 1977 Form Book to be sure)

Park Express was 5th and 1st respectively

Three Tails was 2nd and 1st respectively

Zilzal was 1st and almost certainly 1st respectively, though the 1988 Form Book will need to be checked to be sure.

VDW referred to the time/merit rating as "a further guide. In the 1981 2000 Guineas example, the time/merit rating did better than the standard one, but I don't think VDW ever expressed a preference. That he selected Park Express ahead of Mill On The Floss, and Three Tails ahead of Port Helene, suggests, though, that in practice he favoured the time/merit rating but it will perhaps be possible to be more confident when a copy of the 1977 Form book comes to hand.

A further race to be considered in due course is the 1990 Derby, obviously a 3yo only. Re-reading VDW's comments on that, I was struck by the following: "From a field of 18, all but five ... automatically disqualified". But the five left were not the top five on the standard ability rating, indeed Quest For Fame was well down that ranking. They might be the five best on time/merit, I have no data on that. From the text, though, it looks as though they might be the top five on the basis of class of last race. Anyway, something else to puzzle over in due course.

ps

Actually there is a 5th, Rifle Brigade. He was 3rd on the standard ability rating and I think top on the time/merit one, but I need to check the latter.

 

[Tufnel]

I think only four of the 30 odd VDW selections which he stated were bets, certainties or outstanding bets were 3yo only races, those won by Derrylin, Park Express, Three Tails and Zilzal. On the numbers I have:

Derrylin was 3rd on the standard ability rating and probably either 1st or 2nd on the time merit rating (would need the 1977 Form Book to be sure)

Park Express was 5th and 1st respectively

Three Tails was 2nd and 1st respectively

Zilzal was 1st and almost certainly 1st respectively, though the 1988 Form Book will need to be checked to be sure.

VDW referred to the time/merit rating as "a further guide. In the 1981 2000 Guineas example, the time/merit rating did better than the standard one, but I don't think VDW ever expressed a preference. That he selected Park Express ahead of Mill On The Floss, and Three Tails ahead of Port Helene, suggests, though, that in practice he favoured the time/merit rating but it will perhaps be possible to be more confident when a copy of the 1977 Form book comes to hand.

A further race to be considered in due course is the 1990 Derby, obviously a 3yo only. Re-reading VDW's comments on that, I was struck by the following: "From a field of 18, all but five ... automatically disqualified". But the five left were not the top five on the standard ability rating, indeed Quest For Fame was well down that ranking. They might be the five best on time/merit, I have no data on that. From the text, though, it looks as though they might be the top five on the basis of class of last race. Anyway, something else to puzzle over in due course.

I always took it that he was basing the 5 on class of last race as it was tied up with the Roushayd approach. He also discarded those he said were "only milers and can't say for this one" Zoman, etc. Which is a hot potato when it comes to mile classic form and Derby/Oaks appraisals. Yes, it's true, too many high class milers are tempted by the prospect of Derby glory and fail, but some pretty significant exceptions have occurred over the years, not least just this season when City Of Troy took his first step beyond a mile when winning the Derby easily. Just a year after Quest For Fame, who was very inexperienced for a Derby winner a had only won a maiden (from the top of my head), we had Generous step up from a 50/1 effort in the 2000 G and win the Derby first try beyond a mile, though at least he had run in one of the mile G1 races at 2.

I think the key bit of form for QFF was his 2nd at Chester to what would have been the Derby fav but for injury. But certainly VDW made reference to where he made his debut and what distance.

I wonder if VDW had been around this year he might have said something like the Derby fav flopped in the 2000 G and didn't run beyond 7 at 2?

 

[gerry]

There was something that stuck out like sore thumb on VDW today that could have made it a incredible day for most if they noticed it.

 

[Garry]

G Garry

In a word, no.

I have the table below which I compiled some years ago when I had access to both 1985 and 1986 Form Books, but I've only the results of the calculations, not the win prize money nor number of races won.

Currently I have access to a 1986 Form Book, which shows Park Express as having had four races no wins that year prior to the Lancashire Oaks. The win(s) must have been in 1985, therefore.

I try to check all my old figures when I revisit a race now, but can't for the 1986 Lancashire Oaks without a 1985 Form Book. I'd be surprised if the figures in my table are unduly inaccurate, though, as the material for the races I have been able to check has generally been correct.

Mill On The Floss	100	1
Bambolona	77	2
Shtaifeh	35	3
Old Domesday Book	31	4
Park Express	24	5
Sue Grundy	24	5
Santiki	22	6
Fleeting Affair	20	7
Barsham	0	8

Hi JennyK,

None of Park Express’s wins up to the Lancashire Oaks are in the Form Book. According to the Form Book, Park Express’s COMPLETE form placings leading up to the Lancashire Oaks are 52-3044. But only the top Irish races are shown in the Form Book. The actual COMPLETE form placings are 152-13044. The Newspapers showed the last 6 placings as 02-1304. This is because the actual last time out 4th was in Ireland only 7 days previously and that race, most likely, had not yet been included in the weekly Form Book.

As far as I can determine Park Express won her debut, the Old Bawn (2-y-o) Fillies Mdn worth £2,000 over 6f at Leopardstown on Sat, Sep 21, 1985. I don’t know whether the £2,000 is the actual win prize money. Her next 2 races are in the Form Book. 5th in the G1 Cheveley Park Stakes over 6f and then 2nd in the G3 Ardenode Stud Leopardstown Stks, where she recorded her 80 speed figure.

First time out as a 3-y-o she won the Tullamaine Castle Stud, 3-y-o (F) Race worth, I think, £5,114, over 1m, at Phoenix Park on Sat, Apr 5, 1986. The rest are in the Form Book.

You must have obtained Park Express’s ability rating from the Sporting Life.

 

[JennyK]

G Garry

Thank you. The 1986 Form Book does not, as you say, include Park Express's win on 05/04/86. You must be right that my ability ratings for the 1986 Lancashire Oaks came from the Life; I can't think of any other source. And presumably that would also have been VDW's source when he assessed the race.

I suspect VDW treated Park Express's last run before the Lancashire Oaks as a 2nd, as she finished 2nd and was demoted to 4th, presumably because she hampered the horse who finshed 4th.

 

[Garry]

For those interested here are the 1986 speed figures for Park Express leading up to the Lancashire Oaks. Some are calculated from the Speed Figure List at the end of the Annual Form Book.

First race Phoenix Park 1m, no data. Second race 3rd Phoenix Park 7f, HY, Time not taken. Third race 10th Curragh Irish 1,000 Guineas, 1m, GS, 44 calculated. Fourth race 4th Ascot G2 Ribblesdale Stks, 1 1/2m, F, 51. Fifth race 2nd demoted to 4th Curragh G2 Pretty Polly Stks, 1 1/4m, G, 51 calculated.

One thing I have noticed is, there are horses listed in the Speed Figure List referring to races that are not in the Form Book. Whether these races were in the pull-out returns of the Raceform Handicap Book (or whatever it was called at the time), I don’t know.

 

[Nellsman]

Hi JennyK,
I doubt very much if VDW only selected Park Express instead of Mill On The Floss purely because of time/merit or ability figures. Surely the form of Park Express LTO run is superior to Mill On The Floss LTO run in the Ribblesdale. As a matter of interest have you compared the two using T Tufnel take on Erin numbers?

 

[JennyK]

Nellsman

Thanks to G Garry, first in his posts on the Lesley Ann thread and now in relation to Park Express, we find we are on less solid ground than we probably supposed re ability ratings. In principle they are objective but in practice only if they can be calculated from all the necessary data and we can no longer rely on the Form Books for that.

Anyway, I am currently working on the assumption that, using the standard ability rating, Park Express is fifth in the rank order.

In my view, VDW worked in the way he showed in his 1988 Mackeson article which, cutting out the irrelevances, was first, putting the field into rank order, then working down identifying the form horses and then checking that those still in contention had no clear disqualifying "other factors" issues of the kind that led him to by-pass Jim Thorpe.

Applying this to the 1986 Lancashire Oaks, top ability-rated was Mill On The Floss. Was she a form horse? Without a shadow of doubt. Was her fomr consistent? Again yes. Did she have any "other factor" issues? I think the evidence of earlier runs in 1986 strongly suggest no. So, if he only used the standard ability rating Mill On The Floss would be the class/form horse, well ahead of the rest on ability.

But in his 1981 2000 Guineas example VDW recommended using the standard ability rating and time/merit as a "further guide" and it seems likely that then he gave them equal weight. I see two possibilities. Either by 1986 VDW's experiences had led him to the conclusion that one of the ratings was better than the other with 3yo only races, or he still used both as in the 1981 example. If he has decided that the time/merit rating was clearly the better, I don't currently have the data to compile a ranking though posts suggest that Park Express would top it at 80. if so, she would have been the class/form horse as she was a form horse, consistent enough and with as far as I can see no disqualifying "other factors" issue. If he was still using both forms of ability rating, he would have been considering Park Express and Mill On The Floss. The phrasing of the last paragraph on page 26 of "Systematic Betting" (continued on page 27) suggests he selected Park Express rather than a book. If so, when comparing the two he clearly took your view that Park Express's form was (considerably) superior to Mill On The Floss's.

re Erin numbers, I have my own version as to how they were calculated. But I don't think my version, T Tufnel's or any other was significant in VDW's decisions. All versions are crude abridgements of complex data and, like tissue-compilers' ratings, I simply don't believe VDW would have regarded them as of any weight compared to his meticulous class/consistent form/"other factors" analysis.

 

[Michael231]

I don't know if any of you know, but I put in a search for 1990 Derby field and result and was surprised at the result as I went to Wikipedia and they had both as well as races they had ran in previously and they had the same for previous years and ones after as well.
Anyway if you need to check the other races that they were in as you can go to the other races they were in as well.
Hope it's of help to some, I know it was for me, I'll be going back to a few to catch up with most of you regards the races.

 

[Nellsman]

Thanks for that M Michael, there is an entry for Park Express but I don't think that they have caught the missing race.

 

[Nellsman]

Hi JennyK,
I've got out my old notes on Park Express and I have retained some pertinent posts from an old forum (which I have attached). This includes a post from Mtoto (Bob) as to how he worked the class/time/merit angle in the Lancashire Oaks. It's interesting stuff and I'm sure that other members of this forum will find it so. Enjoy the read.

 

[JennyK]

Nellsman

Interesting. And even now - ? years later - questions remain unresolved.

 

[Garry]

Yes, all very interesting, but all too engrossed in the Form to miss the elephant in the room that is the significant jockey change and the sole reason why Park Express turned the Form around.

 

[Nellsman]

I suppose it's one way to look at it.

 

[Garry]

I suppose it's one way to look at it.

Not the only thing though, you can add Jim Bolger’s 100% record at Haydock, only 2 runners mind, prior to the Lancashire Oaks.

1979 Exalted – Victor Ludorum Hurdle (4y).
1983 Give Thanks – Lancashire Oaks.

 

[JennyK]

Nellsman

I've been skimming through VDW's writings to see if he made mention of the jockey being a factor to take into account. Nothing so far but more to look through.

What I have notice are a couple of sentences I'd sidelined in "The Golden Years"

"Several times I have expressed the view that ratings should be looked upon as a guide only and not the ultimate means of selection. The principles involved in the method are class and consistent form." (p 55)

"Ability, or class, shoud therefore be judged on public performances and winning achievements and not on any other factor." (p 65).

While the second matches virtually all VDW's selections, he perhaps ought to have added "except with younger horses on the Flat, the best sf is also a good measure of ability".

 

[nagwa]

In the Pegwell Bay example notice the significant jockey change

 

[mick]

In the Pegwell Bay example notice the significant jockey change

I am only working off long ago memory but i also recall him mentioning your above. PS : None of my business but more of the same should increase your prospects of gaining Green.