Not a tip but i thought it worth a gander at these two pieces of form
How best to read form ?
- Thread starter tacker
- Start date
That Ascot race looks a cracker now
How good was WAREETH on saturday 5.30 newc ?
I have read a few things online suggesting he's topnotch ?
It looked very good but how can you know without much in way of evidence whether that be the opponents ( fav STARGLOW pulled up) or maybe something in the times ?
So i asked grok the question
I've not tried to check the answer but have to be honest it comes across as quite informative.
I have read a few things online suggesting he's topnotch ?
It looked very good but how can you know without much in way of evidence whether that be the opponents ( fav STARGLOW pulled up) or maybe something in the times ?
So i asked grok the question
I've not tried to check the answer but have to be honest it comes across as quite informative.
Chesham
Sire
T
tacker
Purchased for a staggering 510,000gns by Federico Barberini, this 3-year-old colt possesses an impeccable, elite middle-distance genetic profile. His recent 14-length debut demolition over a mile, supported by spectacular RaceIQ tracking data, confirms he has inherited both the enormous stride and the immense stamina engine of his parents. He looks every inch a Classic contender in the making.
We’ve always liked him a lot, but hes a typical Sea The Stars
as he is quite workmanlike at home so to do it like that is a big
surprise,Doyle said. He was very green going to post, but I
liked the way he knuckled down and hit the line hard. That was a
professional debut and I think thats his minimum trip--he could
go anywhere.
Purchased for a staggering 510,000gns by Federico Barberini, this 3-year-old colt possesses an impeccable, elite middle-distance genetic profile. His recent 14-length debut demolition over a mile, supported by spectacular RaceIQ tracking data, confirms he has inherited both the enormous stride and the immense stamina engine of his parents. He looks every inch a Classic contender in the making.
Sire Profile: Sea The Stars (IRE)
Sea The Stars (by Cape Cross) is one of the premier stallions of the modern era, renowned for siring brilliant middle-distance horses and stayers (e.g., Baaeed, Stradivarius, Harzand).- Progeny Traits: He consistently stamps his stock with extreme athletic scope, immense lung capacity, and a devastatingly long, rolling stride. His offspring typically mature into 1m 2f to 1m 4f specialists.
- Conditions: They are highly versatile but generally appreciate a galloping track where they have the time and space to engage their massive strides. They handle a variety of ground conditions but often excel on Good or Good to Firm turf.
Female Line (Dam & Broodmare Sire)
The maternal side of the pedigree injects deep, middle-distance quality.- The Broodmare Sire (Motivator): Winner of the Epsom Derby, Motivator is a massive source of stamina and classic class. As a broodmare sire, his influence is profound, most famously producing the dual Arc heroine Treve.
- The Dam (Shahah): A high-class racemare in her own right, Shahah was a two-year-old Group 3 winner (Prix d'Aumale). She brings a touch of early maturity to the pedigree, ensuring the Sea The Stars influence does not result in a slow, late-maturing stayer, but rather a horse with tactical gears.
The Cross/Nick
Sea The Stars (Green Desert/Danzig line) x Motivator (Sadler's Wells line) This is a potent blend explicitly engineered for the European Classics.- The Blend: It layers the brilliant, rhythmic galloping power of Sea The Stars over the deep, grinding stamina of Motivator.
- Result: A physically imposing horse capable of sustaining a high cruising speed over 1m 2f+ without tiring. It is a true Derby-style genetic makeup.
RaceIQ Metrics & Performance Analysis
The tracking data from his debut 1-mile victory is nothing short of spectacular. Winning by 14 lengths is visually impressive, but the metrics reveal a horse of rare mechanical efficiency.- Finishing Speed Percentage (FSP 102.09% | Ranked 1st): An FSP over 100% indicates that the horse was genuinely accelerating at the end of the race relative to his average speed throughout the contest. Clocking 102.09% at the end of a mile while drawing 14 lengths clear shows he was not stopping; he was just getting started. He had completely broken his rivals' hearts by the 2-furlong marker and was full of running at the line.
- Stride Length (Average 7.61m | Max 7.83m | Ranked 1st): This is the absolute hallmark of a top-tier Sea The Stars colt. An average stride length of 7.61 meters is massive. It means he covers ground effortlessly. Horses with strides this long are highly energy-efficient because they take fewer steps per furlong.
- Top Speed (40.19 MPH | Ranked 1st): Hitting over 40 MPH towards the end of a mile race demonstrates a serious turn of foot. He didn't just out-stay the field; he out-sprinted them when asked for his winning effort.
- 0-20mph Acceleration (3.38s | Ranked 4th): He did not expend excess energy bursting out of the stalls. The data shows he settled into a rhythm, let his stride unfold, and then unleashed his immense power late.
Conditions Suitability
- Distance: 1m 2f to 1m 4f. While he obliterated this field over a mile, his stride length and pedigree dictate that stepping up to 10 or 12 furlongs will unlock even more improvement.
- Track Type: Galloping tracks. A horse with a 7.83m maximum stride needs long, sweeping straights (like Newmarket, York, or the Curragh) to balance up. Sharp, undulating tracks might break his natural rhythm.
Final Verdict
This 510,000gns Sea The Stars colt has completely justified his price tag at the very first time of asking. The combination of a flawless middle-distance pedigree, a massive 7.61m average stride length, and a 14-length winning margin points to a horse with genuine Group 1 potential. He is a premier Classic prospect, and stepping him up in trip for a recognized Derby Trial looks to be the perfect next move.We’ve always liked him a lot, but hes a typical Sea The Stars
as he is quite workmanlike at home so to do it like that is a big
surprise,Doyle said. He was very green going to post, but I
liked the way he knuckled down and hit the line hard. That was a
professional debut and I think thats his minimum trip--he could
go anywhere.
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Had a chat with Grok.......
Chesham
Sire
Tactical Profile & Front-End Mapping
When evaluating Al Najashi through the lens of the 'Analiese Blueprint' and searching for a 'Lone Speed Anomaly', his tactical versatility stands out as his biggest asset. While he dictated terms from the front in his lower-grade wins (13 Feb and 19 Feb), his most recent Class 2 victory on 3 April proves he does not need a free pass on the lead to win. He navigated traffic from the rear of midfield, meaning he isn't reliant on a green
pace setup to execute his race. He is a multi-dimensional threat.RaceIQ & Timeform Summary Chart
| Date | Course/Class/Trip | PR% (Finishing Speed) | TFR | Tfig |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Apr 26 | Nwc AW / C2 / 6f | 98.52% | 100 | 97 |
| 19 Feb 26 | Nwc AW / C5 / 7f | Data Unavailable | 88 | 66 |
| 13 Feb 26 | Wol AW / C6 / 7f | Data Unavailable | 90 | 90 |
Handicapper's Interpretation: Last 3 Starts
3 Apr 26 | Newcastle (Class 2) 6f- Timeform Comment: "Must have been some good thing off an opening mark of 53 back in January as he's not looked back since, 4 further successes and this is easily his biggest and most important yet... was suited by the way the race developed, but his run-to-run progress remains the most pertinent factor."
- RaceIQ & Analysis: This was a massive step up in class, and the data backs up the visual impression. Over a 6f trip, logging a top speed of 41.98 MPH (2nd in the field) while navigating traffic shows elite acceleration. More importantly, maintaining a 98.52% finishing speed (1st in the field) after being forced to switch near the rail confirms his engine is highly efficient. A Tfig of 97 confirms this was a legitimately fast race.
- Timeform Comment: "Was still 5 lb well-in despite his penalty and completed the 4-timer with a minimum of fuss... making light of a step up in grade and it's hard to know exactly where his ceiling is at the moment."
- Analysis: A tactical, comfortable win. The Tfig dropped significantly to 66 here, indicating he was allowed to dictate a slow pace and only expend as much energy as necessary to put the race away. It was a bridging race to maintain fitness and confidence.
- Timeform Comment: "Rapidly on the up and looked something out of the ordinary so far as early 3-y-o handicaps go in completing a hat-trick by a huge margin... maintaining a good pace once he got there in the style of one destined for much better things."
- Analysis: This was the breakout performance that signaled he was a Group-level talent masquerading in Class 6 company. Posting a 90 Tfig while destroying the field by 13 lengths is exceptionally rare for this grade. He burned early energy from a wide stall to get the lead and still had the reserves to quicken clear.
Evaluating this newly supplied RaceIQ data completely fleshes out the 'Analiese Blueprint' for Al Najashi. What we are looking at is a horse with multiple gears who can weaponize his stride depending on the race setup.
When looking for a Lone Speed Anomaly, the February 13th performance stands out brilliantly. He took a keen hold from a wide draw, pressed forward to dictate, and was given a free pass on the lead. As a result, he is a massive
Primary Tactical Bet whenever he looks likely to get uncontested fractions on the front end, because he has the raw stride length (7.53M) to completely break the field behind him without over-exerting himself.RaceIQ & Timeform Summary Chart (Updated)
| Date | Course/Class/Trip | PR% (Finishing Speed) | TFR | Tfig |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Feb 26 | Nwc AW / C5 / 7f | 106.93% | 88 | 66 |
| 13 Feb 26 | Wol AW / C6 / 7f | 99.84% | 90 | 90 |
| 7 Feb 26 | Lin AW / C6 / 6f | 110.09% | 83 | 64 |
Handicapper's Interpretation: The Breakout Hat-Trick
19 Feb 26 | Newcastle (Class 5) 7f- RaceIQ Insight: The finishing speed of 106.93% perfectly explains the low Tfig of 66. This was a slowly run, tactical affair where the field crawled early. He sat just off the pace (2nd), tracked smoothly, and used his 40.33 MPH top speed to put the race to bed late. He didn't post a massive overall time because he didn't have to; he won this strictly on acceleration inside the final two furlongs.
- RaceIQ Insight: This is the most impressive profile of the three and the ultimate Lone Speed Anomaly. A PR% of 99.84% means this was a true, evenly run race. He set a relentless, punishing gallop from the front (led over 4f out). His average stride length of 7.53M ranked 1st in the field, and a top speed of 40.55 MPH (also 1st) shows he was cruising at a high cruising speed that the Class 6 animals simply couldn't handle. The 90 Tfig is thoroughly justified by the energy distribution.
- RaceIQ Insight: A severely falsely run race indicated by the massive 110.09% PR%. The early pace was non-existent. He was held up, swept around the outside, and blew the doors off the field with a blistering 41.47 MPH top speed (1st in the field). The low Tfig (64) is purely a symptom of the race structure, not his ability. His burst of speed to overcome the lack of early pace and still win easily by 5.5 lengths flagged him immediately as a horse way ahead of the handicapper.
Pedigree & Dosage Analysis: The Engine Behind the Data
This pedigree profile perfectly explains the explosive RaceIQ metrics we’ve been tracking. As a handicapper mapping out a 3-year-old’s ceiling and optimal trip, the bloodlines here provide a massive clue for his upcoming transition to the turf.Here is a breakdown of what Al Najashi's genetic blueprint tells us about his future:
The Dosage Profile (1-4-9-0-0) and Distance Limits
- Dosage Index (DI) of 2.11: A DI over 2.0 indicates a horse heavily skewed toward speed rather than stamina.
- Center of Distribution (CD) of +0.43: This positive number places his absolute sweet spot right at 7 furlongs to a flat mile.
- Zero Stamina Points: With a 0 in both the "Solid" and "Professional" dosage categories, his stamina reservoir is definitively capped. Stretching him to 1m 2f would be a massive risk. He is a pure sprinter-miler.
Primary Tactical Bet, able to set a punishing 7f pace (40.55 MPH) without folding late.The Sire Line: Territories x Iffraaj
- Territories (IRE): A top-class miler who acts well on turf. He passes down tactical speed and a potent turn of foot.
- Iffraaj (GB) as Broodmare Sire: Iffraaj injects raw speed.
- The Nick (Territories x Iffraaj Mares): The nicking stats for this specific cross are surprisingly poor on paper (7 starters, only 2 winners, an AEL of just 0.72). Al Najashi is heavily outperforming his statistical cross. He is the outlier that makes this mating look brilliant.
Handicapper's Verdict: The Turf Transition
Timeform noted he is heading for valuable 3-y-o handicaps on the turf.When you combine a DI of 2.11 with his proven ability to generate a 110% finishing speed off a slow pace, he becomes a lethal weapon in big-field turf handicaps. On turf, where races can often turn into sprint finishes, his Machiavellian-infused turn of foot will be a massive differentiator.
Furthermore, if his connections step him up to a flat 1 mile on the grass, his natural 6f/7f cruising speed will allow him to easily cross over, take the lead, and potentially become a
Lone Speed Anomaly against slower milers.The data, the speed figures, and now the pedigree all align. He is a Group-level talent currently masquerading in handicaps.
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I feel the sectionals for OXAGON & PORTCULLIS are quite revealing.
Chesham
Sire
Based on the sectional data and the results from Newmarket yesterday (April 16th, 2026), I have identified the horses. Both races were run over the Rowley Mile, but they produced very different data profiles.
In contrast, Oxagon (Horse 2) set his own fractions from the front. To clock a 40.57 mph top speed while leading is a sign of a high-class animal. Usually, front-runners peak lower because they are doing the "donkey work," but Oxagon was faster than the horses who had the benefit of a tow.
The Identity of the Horses
- Horse 1: Portcullis (7/1)
- Context: Won the 14:25 Maiden Stakes.
- Profile: The "Impressive" Closer. Despite being slowly away, he posted a massive 105.64% finishing speed.
- Horse 2: Oxagon (7/4)
- Context: Won the 15:35 Conditions Stakes.
- Profile: The "Engine." Made all the running to win readily with a high top speed of 40.57 mph.
- Horse 3: Avicenna (11/2)
- Context: Finished 2nd to Oxagon (beaten 2 lengths) in the 15:35.
- Profile: The "Stayer." Boasts the largest stride length of the group (7.49m average).
The Rerun: Who is Superior?
After identifying them, the choice between Portcullis and Oxagon becomes a classic "Speed vs. Efficiency" debate. However, when we normalize the data, Oxagon (Horse 2) remains the superior prospect for the following reasons:1. The Quality of the Gallop
Portcullis (Horse 1) looked incredible winning "going away," but his 105.64% finishing speed tells us the early pace in the Maiden was far too steady. He essentially sprinted past tired horses who had never been put under pressure.In contrast, Oxagon (Horse 2) set his own fractions from the front. To clock a 40.57 mph top speed while leading is a sign of a high-class animal. Usually, front-runners peak lower because they are doing the "donkey work," but Oxagon was faster than the horses who had the benefit of a tow.
2. Tactical Bulletproofing
- Oxagon: 0-20 MPH in 2.60s. He has the "gears" to dominate a race from the start.
- Portcullis: 0-20 MPH in 3.52s. He is a hostage to fortune. If he misses the break in a higher-class race where the pace is honest, he won't be able to utilize that 105% finishing burst because the leaders won't be coming back to him.
3. The "Avicenna" Factor (Horse 3)
While Avicenna finished 2nd, his stride data is the most intriguing for the future. An average stride of 7.49m and a max of 7.78m are monster numbers for a 3-year-old at this stage of the season.Final Ranking
- Oxagon: The most "complete" miler right now. Elite launch and elite top speed.
- Avicenna: The horse with the most physical scope. Superior stride length.
- Portcullis: A very talented individual, but his "impressive" visual win was aided by a lack of early tempo in his race.
2.42 red....WORLINGTON.
I take the view this horse was a non-trier LTO so it went into my tracker, when i looked at the stride data 26.09 / 2.18, i thought he would most likely go up in distance but he goes down a little instead.
7/4 hills if you trust he's trying today.
I take the view this horse was a non-trier LTO so it went into my tracker, when i looked at the stride data 26.09 / 2.18, i thought he would most likely go up in distance but he goes down a little instead.
7/4 hills if you trust he's trying today.
Don't know where i should put this so stuck it here...