A bit short of time but the bit where you quote me you left out the context of the horse is what it is now and if that means mid 60s then his win off the 74 mark is irrelevant in my view.
How best to read form ?
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Yes I have had a quick read through and I’m with you
gerry
Mare
Its interesting how we all look at races and there no right or wrong and even after the result there still no right or wrong.
As any reason can be given for poor run after race so its just result comes and goes and we all have reasons.
I think
JennyK gave really decent reasons why she fancied hers what i didnt like is the track although won here it was of 69 so not alot lower than of today but with wide draw and i think better suited to straighter track could be found out of mark.
But T tacker who disagreed with older form but yet even mentioned high numbers are problem at kempton then goes for the horse drawn highest of all and who has only ever once run right handed finished well beat.
Yet when you look at the form cayman tai got beat here a length by hierarchy giving it a pound, where as expert agent got beat 4lengths by it getting a pound surely cayman is well in on form.
And should be the form horse of these three.
As any reason can be given for poor run after race so its just result comes and goes and we all have reasons.
I think
JennyK gave really decent reasons why she fancied hers what i didnt like is the track although won here it was of 69 so not alot lower than of today but with wide draw and i think better suited to straighter track could be found out of mark.But T tacker who disagreed with older form but yet even mentioned high numbers are problem at kempton then goes for the horse drawn highest of all and who has only ever once run right handed finished well beat.
Yet when you look at the form cayman tai got beat here a length by hierarchy giving it a pound, where as expert agent got beat 4lengths by it getting a pound surely cayman is well in on form.
And should be the form horse of these three.
JennyK
Gelding
I agree with you,
gerry, as on the way I rate form status Cayman Tai is a form horse while Expert Agent and State of Madness are not.
I see there as being four form horses in the field using VDW's method of rating, in descending order of ability Waistcoat, Em Four, City Cyclone and Cayman Tai.
Waistcoat has, on my performance ratings, improved on each of his last two runs, which I always see as a plus, but he will need to post his best rating so far to win today and the improvement needed on his best to date, while within the limits I accept for 5yos, is pushing it.
Elm Four, although in my view a VDW form horse, showed signs of maybe going out of form last time, and I can't see in the comments on that race or the data a reason. If he can improve on his penultimate run, he would have every chance, but betting on ifs can be costly.
City Cyclone has, on my figures, least improvement to find of the three but whether he is a 6f horse remains to be seen. Most of his handicap runs and all four wins so far have been over 7f.
Cayman Tai has no winning handicap rating. On his run on 19/12/25 he wouldn't have to improve hugely to win today, but on his run since, admittedly when pushed up in class (on both win prize money and average OR) he returned a lower performance rating. Back down in class today, again on both ratings, who knows? Maybe he is going out of form, or maybe he was just caught out by the rise in class.
A problem that all four have is that in addition to Expert Agent (and Northcliff), three other, non-form, runners have markedly higher rated winning performances than any of them since 01/01/25.
In strict VDW terms, I see Waistcoat as the class/form horse but certainly not a strong enough one for me to want to back him, for both the specific and general reasons above. Not do any of the others tempt.
gerry, as on the way I rate form status Cayman Tai is a form horse while Expert Agent and State of Madness are not.I see there as being four form horses in the field using VDW's method of rating, in descending order of ability Waistcoat, Em Four, City Cyclone and Cayman Tai.
Waistcoat has, on my performance ratings, improved on each of his last two runs, which I always see as a plus, but he will need to post his best rating so far to win today and the improvement needed on his best to date, while within the limits I accept for 5yos, is pushing it.
Elm Four, although in my view a VDW form horse, showed signs of maybe going out of form last time, and I can't see in the comments on that race or the data a reason. If he can improve on his penultimate run, he would have every chance, but betting on ifs can be costly.
City Cyclone has, on my figures, least improvement to find of the three but whether he is a 6f horse remains to be seen. Most of his handicap runs and all four wins so far have been over 7f.
Cayman Tai has no winning handicap rating. On his run on 19/12/25 he wouldn't have to improve hugely to win today, but on his run since, admittedly when pushed up in class (on both win prize money and average OR) he returned a lower performance rating. Back down in class today, again on both ratings, who knows? Maybe he is going out of form, or maybe he was just caught out by the rise in class.
A problem that all four have is that in addition to Expert Agent (and Northcliff), three other, non-form, runners have markedly higher rated winning performances than any of them since 01/01/25.
In strict VDW terms, I see Waistcoat as the class/form horse but certainly not a strong enough one for me to want to back him, for both the specific and general reasons above. Not do any of the others tempt.
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Just catching up on yesterday's racing and i have to admit that EXPERT AGENT ran very well to finish 4th, what surprises me is that how will the handicapper view a horse running off 71 (2lb ow ) ? I can only imagine he'll go up a couple of pounds or even more, reason being if he hadn't had those extra 2lbs he might have won, probably would have won anyway with a better draw.
Given the discussion we're trying to have i would say that taking this run into account EA is capable of winning off a mark of 74, his previous form didn't imo.
I was looking at the form for BRIAN THE SNAIL and confirms my view that horses worryingly lack consistency, his handicap ratings over the years are, ...102, 85, 102, 57, 79, 55, 66 so he seems to be settling down now.
Given the discussion we're trying to have i would say that taking this run into account EA is capable of winning off a mark of 74, his previous form didn't imo.
I was looking at the form for BRIAN THE SNAIL and confirms my view that horses worryingly lack consistency, his handicap ratings over the years are, ...102, 85, 102, 57, 79, 55, 66 so he seems to be settling down now.
HiIts interesting how we all look at races and there no right or wrong and even after the result there still no right or wrong.
As any reason can be given for poor run after race so its just result comes and goes and we all have reasons.
I think
But T tacker who disagreed with older form but yet even mentioned high numbers are problem at kempton then goes for the horse drawn highest of all and who has only ever once run right handed finished well beat.
Yet when you look at the form cayman tai got beat here a length by hierarchy giving it a pound, where as expert agent got beat 4lengths by it getting a pound surely cayman is well in on form.
And should be the form horse of these three.
gerry , I would maintain that a high draw at kempton is a disadvantage, thought that was a given actually but if i gave the impression that i was seriously tipping SOM then i need to be more careful with my wording.
JennyK
Gelding
"I can only imagine he'll go up a couple of pounds or even more"
Looking at it dispassionately, T tacker, I don't see why the Handicapper would raise him.
Yesterday he ran off 71 and failed to win. I doubt the Handicapper will think he would have done off 2lb less; although a reasonable conclusion would be that he'd have finished closer.
If the Handicapper takes the view that he would probably not have won yesterday off 69, there is in fact a case for dropping him a further pound. My guess is he will be left on 69; we'll soon find out.
Personally, it wouldn't trouble me if he were raised. I am more concerned about the ride he was given yesterday. Hard to imagine connections being pleased to have the horse flagged as an eyecatcher in both the Post and Life. Much better if he'd finished a quiet 5th or 6th, beaten an extra half length. His next entry, and his jockey then, will tell us more.
Looking at it dispassionately, T tacker, I don't see why the Handicapper would raise him.
Yesterday he ran off 71 and failed to win. I doubt the Handicapper will think he would have done off 2lb less; although a reasonable conclusion would be that he'd have finished closer.
If the Handicapper takes the view that he would probably not have won yesterday off 69, there is in fact a case for dropping him a further pound. My guess is he will be left on 69; we'll soon find out.
Personally, it wouldn't trouble me if he were raised. I am more concerned about the ride he was given yesterday. Hard to imagine connections being pleased to have the horse flagged as an eyecatcher in both the Post and Life. Much better if he'd finished a quiet 5th or 6th, beaten an extra half length. His next entry, and his jockey then, will tell us more.
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mlmrob
Sire
He's entered in a 0-105 on Saturday for 15k. James Tate doesn't overface his horses. He has a 22% strike rate with horses that have won in the same class before. This lad is up from Class 5 to Class 4 but only has Vantheman to beat whom if back to his best would win. He hasn't won since July 2024, 11 losing races.
Tate is 29-117 with lto winners making their handicap debut, 4-9 in 2025/2026 Those that go off in the firsat two of the betting, 23-71.
His siblings.
Belle Storm never won in six, trained by Tate
El Haadeeyah, 1-11 trained by Tate, top OR 83
Reassure 3-11, 3-7b on synthethics, trained by Haggas, top OR 84
Won Love by Frankel was the only one Sheikh Dalmook didn't keep and he managed the loft perch of 55.
mlmrob
Sire
LEVEL UP 1.05 SOUTHWELL
Level Up is 4-11 over 5f off marks of 60-64 in 0-70 or less. That improves to 3-6 when a jockey is claiming weight off his back.
His third to Gogo Yubari reads well in the context of this race. The winner has subsequently won again as has the fourth and seventh. The fourth, Micks Spirit reversed the form with Gogo Yubari who was 10lbs higher.
This will be run to suit Level Up as Thecoffeepoddotco will set off at a blistering pace. He will have company with Twilight Madness and the pace should collapse.
David Evans has had three winners, two seconds and two thirds from his last 12 runners. Jack Dace is 1-2 for Evans
Level Up looks a place banker and if the gaps appear, he should go on to go one place better than last year when beaten a length off 65.
Level Up is 4-11 over 5f off marks of 60-64 in 0-70 or less. That improves to 3-6 when a jockey is claiming weight off his back.
His third to Gogo Yubari reads well in the context of this race. The winner has subsequently won again as has the fourth and seventh. The fourth, Micks Spirit reversed the form with Gogo Yubari who was 10lbs higher.
This will be run to suit Level Up as Thecoffeepoddotco will set off at a blistering pace. He will have company with Twilight Madness and the pace should collapse.
David Evans has had three winners, two seconds and two thirds from his last 12 runners. Jack Dace is 1-2 for Evans
Level Up looks a place banker and if the gaps appear, he should go on to go one place better than last year when beaten a length off 65.
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Well you are pointing to other things that to be fair go against my logic of believing that his form doesn’t stack up to his rating and that’s why I posted it on this thread, my guess was about 78 but I recognise they know their stuff and perhaps I’m seeing it wrong, thanks for the reply
mlmrob .
mlmrob
Sire
Well you are pointing to other things that to be fair go against my logic of believing that his form doesn’t stack up to his rating and that’s why I posted it on this thread, my guess was about 78 but I recognise they know their stuff and perhaps I’m seeing it wrong, thanks for the reply
Given the dam was a listed winner off 87 and finished her career off 103 and Montezan whom he beat two runs back has since beaten a 65 rated horse, it might appear to be high.
Drifted during the day but backed late on, finished 3rd and i would say again 87 was too high based on what he'd achieved.
Trying to emulate the job of an handicapper and using FORTIFICATION 7.15 south.
His first run over 5f saw him run 3rd, winner hasn't run since but the 2nd has gone on to a rating of 85 so a slight positive.
Second run sees him finishing 2nd ripon 5f to STAR MATERIAL who went on to contest the Norfolk (fin last) but again rated 86.
Third run and he wins and has a horse back in 3rd PALMEIRA rated 88 btn 2.5L , so easy to think he might have done enough to warrant a higher mark than 81 but in amongst those little positives are a few horses near enough to throw doubts into the mix,
for instance....HAVANA JAG
www.attheraces.com
So on balance there needs to be some questioning whether or not those numbers in the 80s truly reflect his ability and that's before we seek to analyse the opposition but for me i wouldn't want to bet against FORTIFICATION but have those little doubts about the numbers. no bet.
His first run over 5f saw him run 3rd, winner hasn't run since but the 2nd has gone on to a rating of 85 so a slight positive.
Second run sees him finishing 2nd ripon 5f to STAR MATERIAL who went on to contest the Norfolk (fin last) but again rated 86.
Third run and he wins and has a horse back in 3rd PALMEIRA rated 88 btn 2.5L , so easy to think he might have done enough to warrant a higher mark than 81 but in amongst those little positives are a few horses near enough to throw doubts into the mix,
for instance....HAVANA JAG
Havana Jag | Horse Profile & Next Race Odds | At The Races
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So on balance there needs to be some questioning whether or not those numbers in the 80s truly reflect his ability and that's before we seek to analyse the opposition but for me i wouldn't want to bet against FORTIFICATION but have those little doubts about the numbers. no bet.
18:00 | Wolverhampton | Monday 12th January 2026 | At The Races
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I wonder if this form demonstrated anything to suggest this horse is worthy of being such a short price ?
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Did THEY ALL KNOW ME enhance the form ? or is the market more about connections ?
One of those races where the more you look the more complex the form becomes imo.
fwiw i feel JAZZY BABY has a bit of reasonable form on her side to believe she can run well in a competitive looking race , just click future form.
18:00 | Southwell | Thursday 23rd October 2025 | At The Races
18:00 | Southwell | Thursday 23rd October 2025 | Best Odds Guaranteed At BetMGM Maiden Fillies' Stakes (GBB Race)
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