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How best to read form ?

mlmrob said:
View attachment 163534

Timeform Ratings for the 7.00.

Top rated is Zoulo Warrior who has the following comments.

Overall Comment
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Form with comments backed up with numbers.
Finishing Speed Percentage
Speed Figure
Unadjusted Timefoerm Form Rating
Adjusted Timeform Rating

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He is up a grade tonight so is Water Of Leith
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Ameerjet
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Brave Empire
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All the form comments and numbers you need to ascertain whether to have BET. aS REGrds Water Of Leith, he is one loss away from qualifying for 0-60
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ZOULU WARRIOR up another 4lbs and so it must be worth spending some time watching the replay of his last run in an attempt to decide whether or not you feel there was anything hidden, I didn't personally but sensed something more positive from the lads at TIMEFORM and i fully recognise this is their bread and butter.
WATER OF LEITH..Like always we need to remember what we have discussed many time on the AV v OR thread that Goldie is a tricky bugger and the point made by mlmrob mlmrob and a likely 0-60 race lined up is a constant, problem here my be the jockey bookings which confuse me to say the least, my guess is that WOL will get a proper ride from Havlin tonight but that doesn't convince me that he'll win.
A cursory glance at the form of both horses confirm there is little between them with plenty of other complicated formlines to consider amongst the rest of the field, so more to do.
 
For me its a leave alone race but an interesting stat from this all weather season at Wolverhampton in 6f Handicaps.
Horses that have run at the track more than 8 times have a 1-43 record with Water Of Leith the only runner with 15 appearances at the track.

Probably the best bet of the night at Dunstall Park for me is Ash Wednesday. Won a 0-55 off 47 a year ago with him finishing his all weather season in April with a win off 74 in a 0-80.
Didn't show much on turf so connections put him away.

1768844237465.png


His record in the tongue tie reading 2111111

Looking at the others, their OR compared to last win or best form.

Star Of Mali +3 up in grade
He's A Gentleman +3 same grade
Arantes Nascimento + same grade
Chifa +3 up in grade
Lodge, first handicap, may need it. She was 2ls in front of Bonnita giving 7lbs and that horse has won off 59. Might be a stiff mark 74.
Beauty Choice, 1lb lower than last win in Dec 2024. Also has a neck second off 73 too. Has a chance.
Vince Lombardi, 2lbs higher than recent second, same class. 6lbs higher than win in 0-65.
Anthropologist 1lb higher than neck second, same grade

Ash Wednesday, 1lb higher than last win in 0-80. Also has an unlucky fourth off 76 in a 0-85 at Goodwood.

It looks likely that Ash Wednesday and Arantes Nascimento might have things all to themselves on the front. Beauty Choice ould benefit if it becomes a pace battle.
 
T tacker

"i would prefer to explore your thoughts on BRIAN THE SNAIL 7.00"

I have five.

First, it is a very poor race from my point of view, with no rock-solid VDW class/form horse.

Second, very few people keep horses in training unless they believe (possibly incorrectly of course) that they can win again.

Third, on my performance ratings Brian The Snail has by far the best winning handicap performance in the last twelve months of any of the runners.

Fourth, the last eighteen months or so he has been run increasingly often on the AW. I work with the current year's data and three previous years. From 01/01/23 Brian The Snail has run fourteen times on the AW, all since August 2024. He has failed to win twelve times off a mark of 67 or above, but below 67 he has won twice from two.

The above lead me to the conclusion that, with only AW available for the next couple of months, if Brian The Snail is to win again, and as a 12 yo he must be close to the end of his racing career, it is likely to be on the AW and it is unlikely to be of a mark higher than 66.

Fifth, after resting the horse for two months (he was not entered in a race but withdrawn in that period), the trainer has run him twice and he should have gained fitness (though whether he is fit enough today we will find out soon) and he is now back down to his last winning mark, 66, in a race of lower class than his last two wins (on both the ratings I use - win prize money, as per VDW, and average OR).

He may not be fit enough, and he may have regressed since his last win (nearly nine months ago) such that he will need to drop even further in the ORs than his 66 today. I certainly don't expect him to win this evening, but I think he has a logical chance and in what I view as a poor field I am happy to have a nibble at a long price.
 
mlmrob said:
For me its a leave alone race but an interesting stat from this all weather season at Wolverhampton in 6f Handicaps.
Horses that have run at the track more than 8 times have a 1-43 record with Water Of Leith the only runner with 15 appearances at the track.

Probably the best bet of the night at Dunstall Park for me is Ash Wednesday. Won a 0-55 off 47 a year ago with him finishing his all weather season in April with a win off 74 in a 0-80.
Didn't show much on turf so connections put him away.

View attachment 163542


His record in the tongue tie reading 2111111

Looking at the others, their OR compared to last win or best form.

Star Of Mali +3 up in grade
He's A Gentleman +3 same grade
Arantes Nascimento + same grade
Chifa +3 up in grade
Lodge, first handicap, may need it. She was 2ls in front of Bonnita giving 7lbs and that horse has won off 59. Might be a stiff mark 74.
Beauty Choice, 1lb lower than last win in Dec 2024. Also has a neck second off 73 too. Has a chance.
Vince Lombardi, 2lbs higher than recent second, same class. 6lbs higher than win in 0-65.
Anthropologist 1lb higher than neck second, same grade

Ash Wednesday, 1lb higher than last win in 0-80. Also has an unlucky fourth off 76 in a 0-85 at Goodwood.

It looks likely that Ash Wednesday and Arantes Nascimento might have things all to themselves on the front. Beauty Choice ould benefit if it becomes a pace battle.
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I like the logic behind ASH WEDNESDAY particularly the tongue tie point, tempted.
 
JennyK said:
T tacker

"i would prefer to explore your thoughts on BRIAN THE SNAIL 7.00"

I have five.

First, it is a very poor race from my point of view, with no rock-solid VDW class/form horse.

Second, very few people keep horses in training unless they believe (possibly incorrectly of course) that they can win again.

Third, on my performance ratings Brian The Snail has by far the best winning handicap performance in the last twelve months of any of the runners.

Fourth, the last eighteen months or so he has been run increasingly often on the AW. I work with the current year's data and three previous years. From 01/01/23 Brian The Snail has run fourteen times on the AW, all since August 2024. He has failed to win twelve times off a mark of 67 or above, but below 67 he has won twice from two.

The above lead me to the conclusion that, with only AW available for the next couple of months, if Brian The Snail is to win again, and as a 12 yo he must be close to the end of his racing career, it is likely to be on the AW and it is unlikely to be of a mark higher than 66.

Fifth, after resting the horse for two months (he was not entered in a race but withdrawn in that period), the trainer has run him twice and he should have gained fitness (though whether he is fit enough today we will find out soon) and he is now back down to his last winning mark, 66, in a race of lower class than his last two wins (on both the ratings I use - win prize money, as per VDW, and average OR).

He may not be fit enough, and he may have regressed since his last win (nearly nine months ago) such that he will need to drop even further in the ORs than his 66 today. I certainly don't expect him to win this evening, but I think he has a logical chance and in what I view as a poor field I am happy to have a nibble at a long price.
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Excellent analysis and the only thing i would add is not a lot of effort from the saddle lto.
 
Cheers, T tacker. It is now a question of waiting to see what the trainer does next.

You will have to take my word on the third point, but if you care to check the rest, much the same reasoning applied to The Caltonian on 16/01/26. A rest, in his case three getting fit runs back on the AW and then down to his last winning mark. Pockington was a possible in the race and a cautious backer would probably have covered on him.

The other recent one I mentioned in an earlier post, Serenity Dream, was much less straightforward but there is a logic running through his placings and price was enhanced because the favourite, Buccabay, went off at an absurdly short price for a horse who had shown signs of going out of form. To be fair, on my performance ratings Buccabay's second in that race was a better performance than his previous one, but still a downturn on his winning performance on 03/12/25.
 
JennyK said:
Cheers, T tacker. It is now a question of waiting to see what the trainer does next.

You will have to take my word on the third point, but if you care to check the rest, much the same reasoning applied to The Caltonian on 16/01/26. A rest, in his case three getting fit runs back on the AW and then down to his last winning mark. Pockington was a possible in the race and a cautious backer would probably have covered on him.

The other recent one I mentioned in an earlier post, Serenity Dream, was much less straightforward but there is a logic running through his placings and price was enhanced because the favourite, Buccabay, went off at an absurdly short price for a horse who had shown signs of going out of form. To be fair, on my performance ratings Buccabay's second in that race was a better performance than his previous one, but still a downturn on his winning performance on 03/12/25.
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This 3.13 newc, not yet had time to study properly but will do later but i understand TICKETS is a difficult ride but either way the form with the well backed fav here TEARDROPS and turnaround in the weights is of interest.
 
I once owned some software, back in the 90's - Profile, I think it was called. It took the best ratings from each variable (Distance, going, weight, etc) and formed a rating against today's conditions. Had some cracking bets with it.
 
tacker said:
This 3.13 newc, not yet had time to study properly but will do later but i understand TICKETS is a difficult ride but either way the form with the well backed fav here TEARDROPS and turnaround in the weights is of interest.
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Classic case where a horse like TEARDROPS (13/8) & to similar degree SPARTAN FIGHTER (3/1) can be said to be in form or running to or better than their marks, TEARDOPS started his winning spree off marks of 45, 52, 55, goes off 60 today, those numbers worry me and he's 19lbs worse off with TICKETS for about 2L 20th nov c/d.
SPARTAN FIGHTER won off 46 & 50, runs off 54 today, he met TICKETS last march beaten around 10L and is 10lbs worse off today.

In terms of trying to read such snippets of form i would say it is clear that the form book is messy, certainly in this low class stuff but there's enough in this little example of "form" to make me wary of backing apparent form horses against what might be classed as archive form but this game is very often about trying to second guess connections including those of the other 6 runners.
 
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In the 5.30 Kempton tomorrow Expert Agent is for me the most interesting runner.

Early in his handicap career Expert Agent won three on the aw. He changed trainer at the end of 2023 and for Stuart Williams has so far run 24 times; thirteen on turf with three wins and eleven on the aw with no wins.

Expert Agent is the highest rated in the field on ability by VDW's rating and, equal with Northcliff, has the best winning performance in 2025/6 on my performance ratings. Northcliff's rating comes from his win on 10/05/25 and is his best ever winning rating. Expert Agent's comes from his win on 05/07/25, but unlike Northcliff he had achieved markedly better winning ratings with Mr Williams in 2024 and his previous trainer in 2023.

On a performance as recent as last July Expert Agent has has the ability to win tomorrow, and conditions should be fine; all his six wins have been over tomorrow's distance, half have been on the aw, albeit in 2023, and he has won on the course. Tomorrow's weight, 9.05, should not be an issue.

The issue is form, hence posting about him on this thread. Since his most recent win Expert Agent has run eight times, never making the first three and with a median distance beaten of over four lengths, and that despite the fact that three of the eight (like tomorrow's) had weaker fields than the race he won on 05/07/25 on an average OR basis. He is now a 6yo, though of course only just, but taking his 2024 and 2025 performances as whole, there is no evidence on my ratings that he regressed from his 4yo year in his 5yo year.

What is clear is that under Mr Williams he has not been able to win off a mark higher than 74, and after his last win (off 74) he was of course raised and only fell back below 75 on his penultimate run. Tomorrow he runs off 71

So, in my view we have a horse with quite enough ability to win tomorrow, with conditions that suit, and down 3lb below his last winning mark, only six months ago. He is not a VDW form horse, and I'd need to see improvement in his form status before backing him. He runs off 71 tomorrow but has already been dropped to 69 so unless he wins or goes close he will run off 69 or lower next time out. Were he to show enough to be a VDW form horse for his next run, which I think it quite likely, he could well be a shoe in if running in similar class.

In short, Expert Agent is not a bet for me tomorrow but I hope he runs well enough, without winning!, for a bet next time out.
 
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Cayman Tai looks potentially well In from 2nd last run when 2.25 lengths behind Justcallmepete over C&D and same class as tomorrow. The winner was on 75 and CT was as well . The winner has won twice since and last win was a class 2, is now BHA 86

CT was pushed up in class LTO and is now dropped in Class and down to BHA 72 (Has been as high as 83) wears a hood on for the first time. Has this entry and another on Saturday. Looks an EW type at the odds available, offering 4 places
 
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Very good write up JennyK JennyK nice to see us looking at races for tomorrow and i have already bet one on this and its CAYMEN TAI.
I just thought it does not looks a race without a lot of pace and that the hood added could be really good move to get out quick, has had speed to be close up at goodwood and wolverhampton and as Chesham Chesham says with that good run here ,has only run twice here other run ducked left start but still joined lead so from its draw tomorrow and hood i am hoping the one to beat.
 
I have actually bet it with two other horses i also think are decent prices tomorrow.
INFERNO SACREE in the 2 20 catterick i just think if this horse jumps ok tomorrow could be hard to catch and it is specialist at plumpton where it can make the odd bad jump but here is more forgiving hurdles and i think this track will suit it the only time it ever tried round here was on heavy ground so hopefully will see a better show tomorrow at the odds.
The other one is WEDGEWOOD 2 38 lingfield i found it interesting that carroll has the fav in this with rossa ryan back and from stall one he would need get this horse out and i just dont think he will and it will be mine and trainers other one who stops it from stall 3 as quick away and loves here and wolverhampton where as fav more liking to open track i have no doubt rossa will be finishing but i think trainer might win it with this one instead showed enough last time to look ready to run, Morris usually wins on wedgewood too and he is sticking to second fav in the race which will be close up to early so every thing points to first two in betting and am i just over thinking race but at price i will take chance.
 
EXPERT AGENT ?
JennyK JennyK has already covered his history and summed up his form including taking into account the present trainer who by now will know his horse and the likely rating he'll need to get down to for a win out of him.
The distance of 6f seems to be a settled on looking at his form over the last 6 months or so and it comes down to how good he is based on those runs ? my own feeling is that on balance he's running to somewhere around the mid 60s and so i don't see any point in referring to his last winning march of 74 because at the moment he is what he is imo.
Having watched his last couple of replays i didn't see anything to suggest they were trying to hide his ability and running him off a 2lb higher than his 69 mark is dangerous if he was to finish in the places so i doubt connections will want anything decent.

So after all that type of analysis there's always the question of if not EA then who else ? in the race where any a horse might be thought to be on a mark that might see them placed to go close off their marks? Well there's a fair bit of work needed there and my first port of call would be the draw which a high draw can be problem more so with the cut away there to help the low numbers, it is a frustrating reality that there's little consistency when we're talking lower class handicaps, hence they beat each other, if forced to bet i'd go for the aptly named State of Madness drawn 11.
 
"i don't see any point in referring to his last winning march of 74"

The point, T tacker, is that I believe that VDW was correct when he said that to find winners consistently three things need to come together in any given race; the horse's ability, its form and the suitability of conditions. Winning ORs help provides context for the first of the three.

Generally, a Flat horse progresses from being a 2yo through to the end of their 4yo year, because of two things: physical growth and experience ( ie not only not "running green" but becoming accustomed to racing). Quite a lot continue to progress as 5yos and some but fewer continue to do so as 6yos. Almost all Flat horses show signs of regressing after 6 but while some seem to regress quite quickly, others seem to plateau as 7yos, 8yos and beyond. Winning ORs can help chart a horse's progression/plateauing/regression and that is one of three ratings I use to do that (the other two being VDW's ability rating and my performance ratings).

Put simply, if a 5yo can win off 74, my assumption is that it is likely to be able to win off 74, or close to it, as a 6yo, especially early in the year where the change appears abrupt - 5 to 6 - but the reality is that the 5yo in 2025 is not much different from the 6yo he or she becomes early in 2026 simply by virtue of the calendar clicking over one day.

Specifically on Expert Agent, on winning ORs he showed no progression last year compared with 2024, winning off 74 in both. It is not impossible (though not all that probable) that he could win off a higher mark this year. It is possible that he will show this year that he is regressing. But the issue for me when assessing him today from the ability consideration is what is most likely. After winning off 74 on 05/07/25, Expert Agent ran seven more times last year without winning or even going close. But in two of the seven, the more recent in September, on my performance ratings he achieved the same or better figures than that for last win. Hence my assumption that early this year he probably retains the ability to win off 74 or close to it. When I see him scheduled to run off 71, as today, or quite possibly 69 or lower next time, it is therefore of interest, especially when on the third consideration, conditions, things look perfect (again we only have past races to go on in making that judgement). It is the second consideration, form, that precludes a bet.

re form, I mainly use VDW's rating method, which is designed to identify what he termed "exposed form", and today in my view Expert Agent is not a VDW form horse. I do sometimes back a horse who is not a form horse on VDW's rating method, as I did with Brian The Snail on Monday, but only when (often wrongly!) I think I see what VDW termed "less obvious form", which his rating method was not designed to pick up.
 
IMG_5081.jpeg
Time: 1m 13.27s Closing Sectional: (2f): 23.5s (102.4%)
Overrounds: Industry SP 120%, Betfair SP 101%
A one-sided sprint, Addarella able to set an ordinary gallop before quickening clear off the home turn, the runner-up again shaping very well in the circumstances.
ADDARELLA (IRE) benefited from a good ride as she added to her C&D win here at the backend of last year, seen to maximum effect the way things developed; made running, kicked on entering straight, in command final 1f, won readily; it's not hard to imagine the handicapper overreacting to this.
WATER OF LEITH (IRE) is shaping up well and should be persevered with from what is potentially a very lenient mark, unsuited by the way this developed and also meeting trouble; mid-division, travelled smoothly, not clear run and forced to switch early final 1f, kept on.
 
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