markfinn
Sire
I remember the company but never used it.
How bent is UK and Ire racing?
- Thread starter Outlander
- Start date
Keegans head
Filly
I remember the company very well for the wrong reasons.
It was very popular and well run with lots of pages on teletext updating instantly i thought the edge would be to sell as most people bought as easier to control losses
My last bet with them was 1995 .. Mike Atherton sell runs at 38 for £7 a run .what transpired was one of the greatest innings ever 185 not out and I had to endure near 11 hours of torture as every 4 cost me £28 .. i still wake up in a cold sweat 25 years later
pawras
Stallion
I’ve pondered about this a few times, not that we can really do owt about it.
Coming from the idea/question that are lower classes more prone to being bent? Previously I’ve looked at it by comparing by class the strike for the OR top rated, I found that group 1 & 2 races could perhaps be said to be ran more ‘true’ than others as they had a higher strike. Or maybe they're just rated more accurately at the top end?
But this time I’ve split it by class and hcapstks, this has shown something very interesting re G3 handicaps, I wonder why the top OR rated has such a low strike rate in those races?
I’ve looked at races over about the last 20 years but just UK only over because of the way IRE don’t always give a race an official class and you have to estimate it.
All races as baseline for comparison.
Also some trainers have particularly high and low strike rates when their horses are top OR in the race. Is there some reason why some trainer’s horses do badly even though they’re top rated?
Here’s the top 20 and bottom 20 for trainers who’ve had at least a hundred runners where that have been top rated OR in a race. Some are no longer active but the data covers about 20 years hence they’re in the list.
top 20
bottom 20
You get the same sort range with jockeys as well, I’m not pretending to shine any great light but felt like a waffle.
Coming from the idea/question that are lower classes more prone to being bent? Previously I’ve looked at it by comparing by class the strike for the OR top rated, I found that group 1 & 2 races could perhaps be said to be ran more ‘true’ than others as they had a higher strike. Or maybe they're just rated more accurately at the top end?
But this time I’ve split it by class and hcapstks, this has shown something very interesting re G3 handicaps, I wonder why the top OR rated has such a low strike rate in those races?
I’ve looked at races over about the last 20 years but just UK only over because of the way IRE don’t always give a race an official class and you have to estimate it.
All races as baseline for comparison.
Also some trainers have particularly high and low strike rates when their horses are top OR in the race. Is there some reason why some trainer’s horses do badly even though they’re top rated?
Here’s the top 20 and bottom 20 for trainers who’ve had at least a hundred runners where that have been top rated OR in a race. Some are no longer active but the data covers about 20 years hence they’re in the list.
top 20
bottom 20
You get the same sort range with jockeys as well, I’m not pretending to shine any great light but felt like a waffle.
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mick
Sire
pawras your above good work and interesting. Re using the highest OR while i understand some type of benchmark is needed could there be a different or better one because while the BHA might agree that in a hcap the highest OR is the best horse, they would not agree that it had the best or a better chance of winning at the weights.A class raise is well recognized as part of gaming but in recent years i have noticed an increase in what i see as placed to lose jobs via a class drop and letting the weight be the stopper. This can sometimes be evidenced from the profile that some horses for different reasons are not good weight carriers.
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mlmrob
Sire
Sparely made horses generally can’t carry the weight over jumps. It takes an almighty effort for a small horse to jump a fence never mind lumping top weight for two miles or more.
Then again big horses take a lot of getting fit. They can carry the weight but may not be 100% fit.
It is a difficult job to get a horse ready so he is is perfect racing weight and after many years of watching parade rings I am still no where near at being proficient at reading a horse.
Then again big horses take a lot of getting fit. They can carry the weight but may not be 100% fit.
It is a difficult job to get a horse ready so he is is perfect racing weight and after many years of watching parade rings I am still no where near at being proficient at reading a horse.
mick
Sire
mlmrob physical size plays a part with one of my fav from long ago memories coming from watching Roman Warrior win a big sprint hcap easily under 10.4 I also recall pre race the TV pundit John Oaksey describing jockey Edward Hide as looking like a Pea when sat on top of the massive horse. But i also feel there may be other reasons why some are not suited to carrying weight, perhaps often just mind set.When you can evidence from the profile that its probable that a horse objects to big weights then you have to question why the trainer has dropped him in class especially so when its proven it can win in higher grades. Your above comments provide additional insights into the probable causes.