Horses vdw said are not form horses

[hedgehog]

Chesham, I think with me it's the need to resist a bet I find most difficult. I bet in both the races I mentioned and luckily won both. I've had a further bet Wolverhampton 7.45 seinesational, my odds 3/1, and Lopez dancer 4/1. I am very good at using the same tools to look at a race, or maybe that should be I flog a dead horse long after any sensible person would have given up.

I've been thinking that from your hint sp ranking or something like it should be combined with lto placing. That can be quite time consuming, as I know from experience, to work out the ranking for SPs other than favourite. I think a quicker approach might be to add together the SPs of the 1st and 2nd then divide by number of runners in the race then add this to the sum of 1st and 2nd lto placing. This would give a very quick rating and weight towards lower SPs with good lto placings.

Do you think this might work?

Good luck today

 

[Chesham]

Hi hedgehog

The Performance Ratings for each horse, which appear if you hover your cursor over the red corners, uses formula that takes into account the horses finishing position against its expected from the Odds that it was and also the number of runners.

the last three races are there to see if the Performance Rating is improving or deteriorating.

 

[hedgehog]

Hello Chesham, that would give me the performance of the horse and I am trying to rate the lto race to see if it is formful. My theory is formful races throw up future winners.

Got double lucky in the 7.45, won the race and kept it in the stewards room.

A very lucky day.

I was thinking about the P/R for 1st and 2nd in the lto to combat price inflation in races with lots of runners. A 5/2 1st and 4/1 2nd in a 5 runner race is less informative than when in a 20 runner race. Similarly the 20 runner race may have 6/1 1st and 8/1 2nd which I would still see as better.

Good luck tomorrow