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Horse Racing Trends

pawras

pawras

Stallion
I like looking at trends and I've been having a look at how horse racing has changed since the start of the century

There has been an increase in the number races in UK and IRE which is common knowledge, see in the figures below.


GB and IRE race count each year.JPG

In 2025 there were 2685 more races in the UK compared to in 2000, and 950 more races in IRE in 2025 compared to 2000.

But in % terms that's a 36% increase for the UK and 49% for IRE.

However the make up of the races has changed in places…..

For example looking at flat hcaps with greater than or equal to 16 runners from 2000 to now, comparing UK and IRE, something quite significant seems to have happened.

GB Flat Hcap GTE 16 runners - Overround and race count By Year.JPG



IRE Flat Hcap GTE 16 runners - Overround and race count By Year.JPG

After 2005 there seems to have been a collapse in the number of big field flat hcaps in the UK despite the gradual increase in the number of races.

The figures for IRE tell a different story though, there seems to have been a sharp decline from 2007 to 2015, then a gradual recovery.

Anyone have any idea why that has happened?

Also notice how the bookies in IRE obviously got away with murder at the start of the century re the median average overrounds in those races.
 
I’m no fan boy for anyone and I don’t like people stacking the deck so I decided to have a deep dive on the data to have a look at just how much the O’Brien’s pack out races with their runners plus I added Gordon Elliot and WP Mullins as I've seen plenty races full of their runners as well.

What I've done is using races from the start of 2021, looked at how many races they had just one runner, then calculated their win strike, winplace strike, accumulated prize money and avg prize money per race, then did the same for 2 runners calculating their distinct race win strike, distinct race winplace strike, accumulated prize money and avg prize money per race, then 3 runners, then 4, then 5plus.

Thanks to review comments from someone I also added columns to show often their min and max priced selections win.

Note multiple winplaces in a race only count as one because I want to understand their strike rate in terms of races due to having multiple entrees

Plus, because I personally view the O’Brien’s as one operation I calculated the stats as if they're one trainer. As such I found such as there were 216 races since 2021 where there were 5 or more O'Brien runners and they had a win or place in 91% of those races. (see screen shot)

Also you can see AP is very much the master and his sons just apprentices still.

Notice how WP Mullins on his own likes to pack out races with 5 or more runners!

Prize money can go to 6 places and you can see how much prize money the yards will be getting their cut from as result of packing the races with their horses

Looking at the min max priced runner stats, once they’ve got 3 ,4 or 5 plus runners in a race it becomes less likely it will be the min priced runner will win. But the biggest price one from yards certainly don’t fare well, although WP Mullins bucks the trend a bit compared to the others when he has two runners in a race.


Trainer multi entry analysis v3.jpg


Just been having a quick look at the report covering all trainers, and the O’Brien’s counted as a whole blow everyone else out of the water in terms of packing races with their own runners with WP Mullins is a distant 2nd and Elliot 3rd.

Something I view as interesting is that looking at the report covering all trainers, if you blocked any trainer from having more than 2 runners in a race it would only significantly impact a relatively small number of trainers out of the 1300 or so trainers that have ran horses in UK/IRE the last few years.


Trainer multi entry analysis ALL ordered by 3 runner race count desc.jpg

I know each of the horses a trainer has in a race can have different owners and I don’t have any issue with pacemakers but as soon as they have more than 2 in the race I view it as too open to blocking 'tactics', which I am against, and it being even harder for punters, who are the ones on the shit end of stick for everything, not knowing which one they've actually sent out to win.
 
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𝗥𝗼𝘆𝗮𝗹 𝗔𝘀𝗰𝗼𝘁 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲 𝗗𝗮𝘆 𝟯
𝟭𝟲𝟭𝟱 𝗚𝗼𝗹𝗱 𝗖𝘂𝗽 𝗙𝗹𝗮𝘁 𝗦𝘁𝗮𝗸𝗲𝘀 𝟮𝗺 𝟯𝗳 𝟮𝟭𝟬𝘆 𝗚𝗿𝗼𝘂𝗽𝟭
On ratings I have it as Trawlerman but it's legs might be too old.
However on trial race stats I have between Trawlerman and the much younger Scandinavia which has yet to prove itself at the distance, dutching my money.


20260618 1615 Ascot Gold Cup Flat Stakes 2m 3f 210y Group1 - trial race stats.png
 
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pawras said:
Here's some trainer and jockey stats i.e. PRB2, win strike %, £1 LSP, ROI% over different time periods for those at Royal Ascot this week
Click to expand...
I view the trainer and jockey stats as additional slices of the pie of info to consider.
The list is just for those at Ascot this week but it’s a general view regardless of where they have horses the next few days.

With this I’m looking to see if there’s any that seem to be on significant upward or downwards trends re their prb2 figures for the last 30 days vs the last 365 days

E.g. Trainer G M Lyons seems to be running hot at the moment and he has two at Ascot but several others elsewhere the next couple of days.
He has an outsider in the 1505 Ascot, Genchev, which he happens to have Colin Keane riding who I can see on the jockey tab is a solid top end performer.
Hmm I think I’ve talked myself into a place bet for 5 or 6 places.
But G M Lyons also has horses in 1745 and 1820 at Leopardstown tonight which I think are worthy of consideration (1745 Cosmic Punk , 1820 Krasimir)

Where as Kevin Philippart De Foy is example of a trainer with a few runners this week who looks to be on the slide to me.

With the strike % , £1 LSP and AE you can get a view of trainers performing well but seem to be underbet.

Also their total prize money won and per run give a view of the level they’re operating at.

The judicious use of sorts and filters can help highlight interesting info

I need to write a piece of code that gets fed the report and then spits out the good and bad highlights
 
pawras said:
𝗥𝗼𝘆𝗮𝗹 𝗔𝘀𝗰𝗼𝘁 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲 𝗗𝗮𝘆 𝟯
𝟭𝟲𝟭𝟱 𝗚𝗼𝗹𝗱 𝗖𝘂𝗽 𝗙𝗹𝗮𝘁 𝗦𝘁𝗮𝗸𝗲𝘀 𝟮𝗺 𝟯𝗳 𝟮𝟭𝟬𝘆 𝗚𝗿𝗼𝘂𝗽𝟭
On ratings I have it as Trawlerman but it's legs might be too old.
However on trial race stats I have between Trawlerman and the much younger Scandinavia which has yet to prove itself at the distance, dutching my money.


View attachment 168576
Click to expand...
Hi pawras pawras i have Trawlerman top also but is coming back from a break last year had 2 runs before the race the other horse i have gone for is Sweet William solely on the fact that Only SW and T are guaranteed to get the distance finishing 1-2 last year T beating SW by 19L you need deep stamina for this race and these 2 will still be going when the stamina kicks in have backed both S/W E/W
 
Meant to put these up earlier
Al Nayyir​
123​
122​
-1​
-1​
121​
Al Riffa​
130​
134​
4​
-4​
130​
Caballo De Bar​
117​
119​
2​
0​
119​
Dubai Future​
123​
119​
-4​
0​
119​
Sweet William​
127​
122​
-5​
5​
127​
Trawlerman​
131​
126​
-5​
5​
131​
Carmers​
123​
116​
-7​
7​
123​
Further​
120​
122​
3​
0​
123​
Rahiebb​
127​
126​
-1​
0​
126​
Scandinavia​
128​
121​
-7​
7​
128​
Miss Alpiles​
113​
110​
-3​
-1​
109​
 
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𝗥𝗼𝘆𝗮𝗹 𝗔𝘀𝗰𝗼𝘁 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲 𝗗𝗮𝘆 𝟰
𝟭𝟲𝟮𝟬 𝗖𝗼𝗿𝗼𝗻𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗦𝘁𝗮𝗸𝗲𝘀 (𝗚𝗿𝗼𝘂𝗽 𝟭) (𝗙𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗲𝘀) (𝟭) 𝟯𝘆𝗼 : 𝗣𝗿𝗶𝘇𝗲 𝗠𝗼𝗻𝗲𝘆 £𝟯𝟵𝟲𝟵𝟳𝟬.𝟬𝟬
On ratings I have odds on fav Precise clear top and 2nd fav True Love clear second top.
The trial race stats say Precise and True Love but not at all clear cut for Precise.
Main bet Precise and a saver bet for a small plus on True Love

20260619 1620 Ascot Coronation Flat Stakes 7f 213y Group1 - trial race stats.png
 
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