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Horse Racing Data, Strategy, and AI Harnessing

T tacker "Tipsters" and "selections" are just terminology — I should name them somehow in my app.

And how do you know that I include only selections from this forum in my app?

Actually, I enter some tips from OLBG and various other websites, and I also put selections from other threads on this forum into the list. Not only from "Uk Betting Forum Common Race of Day".

Why am I doing so?

To compare my models with other participants' opinions — even if my own models or opinions are wrong, I have at least something to compare against.

You can see that in Tufnel Tufnel's reply: his information was instructive for my AI agent, because I started this thread as an example of applying, in the first stage, pure AI interpretations of publicly available data — so without any coding on my side — and further to continue with AI-assisted strategy development, where I coded only the plumbing part of the code myself and the rest of the code is automatically generated.

That is the use case scenario of what I say in my first post to this thread.

So maybe all of that does not make sense to you, but for me it is a different way of exposing my own ideas, transferred to the code not only by me.

AI%20expert%20points.png
 
gerry said:
Interesting what you just said A Ajit the market still has this unknown as that's what exactly it does have the known and that along with the hidden value is exactly what i have been running the last week i started it on last saturday what a dangerous day to start something but i thought well its usually the toughest day for me why not and i am happy to say that just passed my 8 days so far with yet a other saturday which i felt would tell me a lot 8 days with two saturdays in there and happily past my first hundred bets with it and nice profit.
So i would say if the next hundred do the same stats i will be delighted and your right the market is solid crack that might crack racing .
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if you can find the value then good luck to you mate. NEVER tell anybody how you're doing it
 
Its early day at 100 bets A Ajit but the market is so correct most of the time and so well out other times you or me would never find it all you need do is look at race results every single day, day in day out and you find the market is with all the money flow is on the piece right so there is no given race where there is value in fact there do given day there is value the value comes from how i am betting over like hundred bets or hopefully 200 hundred bets, Then you can only say your getting value, so if the market is correct most of the time and value is long period find then no wonder its very hard to find it.
So if you have a race any race anyone wants to say this horse is value bet how do they know its 8/1 and should be 5/1 why because they have hunch it has better chance than 8/1 so why is it 8/1 then in first place then obviously the market disagrees with him and this is our down fall we think we no better than the market and i would say we dont. So with all that said i would say value is along term balance which shows oh thats value i get it now.
 
gerry said:
Its early day at 100 bets A Ajit but the market is so correct most of the time and so well out other times you or me would never find it all you need do is look at race results every single day, day in day out and you find the market is with all the money flow is on the piece right so there is no given race where there is value in fact there do given day there is value the value comes from how i am betting over like hundred bets or hopefully 200 hundred bets, Then you can only say your getting value, so if the market is correct most of the time and value is long period find then no wonder its very hard to find it.
So if you have a race any race anyone wants to say this horse is value bet how do they know its 8/1 and should be 5/1 why because they have hunch it has better chance than 8/1 so why is it 8/1 then in first place then obviously the market disagrees with him and this is our down fall we think we no better than the market and i would say we dont. So with all that said i would say value is along term balance which shows oh thats value i get it now.
Click to expand...
Absolutely! We don't know better overall. The overwhelming majority of punters are losing.
However, if you cannot take a view that a horse is mis-priced then you shouldn't bet it.
I don't want to preach about value though, that's overdone a few times over on forums.
 
tacker said:
I simply don't understand the logic here StefanBelo StefanBelo , you're describing members as tipsters and choosing to call selections for the race of the day as tips worth recording for some reason or other, even accounting for those that name 3 horses for the same race, there's little or no value in any of it.
I've already made the point elsewhere that the race of the day shouldn't be classed as a real tip unless somebody specifically says so, reason being obvious in that people are simply encouraged to take part by throwing in a selection for a horse or horses that they have no intention of backing themselves so why would you want to use them for any true intent on behalf of the partisipants ?
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Its quite possible Tacker that although individuals may not be backing their selections they collectively can offer some signal/value/intelligence call it what you will as long as some thought or algorithm has gone into the selections
 
gerry said:
Its early day at 100 bets A Ajit but the market is so correct most of the time and so well out other times you or me would never find it all you need do is look at race results every single day, day in day out and you find the market is with all the money flow is on the piece right so there is no given race where there is value in fact there do given day there is value the value comes from how i am betting over like hundred bets or hopefully 200 hundred bets, Then you can only say your getting value, so if the market is correct most of the time and value is long period find then no wonder its very hard to find it.
So if you have a race any race anyone wants to say this horse is value bet how do they know its 8/1 and should be 5/1 why because they have hunch it has better chance than 8/1 so why is it 8/1 then in first place then obviously the market disagrees with him and this is our down fall we think we no better than the market and i would say we dont. So with all that said i would say value is along term balance which shows oh thats value i get it now.
Click to expand...
The market is only correct overall that does not mean during the process of finding the final price it cannot be wrong at certain points in time, in fact that is the case
 
If the market is correct overall and at certain times is wrong but on balance it gets it right yet if you bet every fav you loss and only 30% win in first place you cant say its because the odds where to short as its the dont win often enough to be correct every time 100% would need win but you pay them to bet them so you loss.
The fact of the matter is the market is the best guide only a lot better then any one individual but is still poor so what does that mean it means the whole secret is not in winning it is that picking winners is near impossible long term as long a s some one bets horses they will not pick enough winners to succeed long term at current odds or the massive majority wont.
So with that in mind is betting on horses a mugs game most people you speak to will say yes it is the market kills you the systems we all pick fail finally so what's wrong with us not realising it.
I will give one example why most fail but it happens to be a football bet i placed yesterday myself and when i worked out my system for horses why did i do something so stupid at football.
Here it was i bet a tenner treble at the football i fancied chelsea brentford and tottenham but since i go out every halloween for dinner i knew would miss the tottenham game in and stuck in aston villa instead.
So i had chelsea won and brentford won now i could have cashed out 47 before even going for dinner but did not first mistake well second as i should have bet tottenham and when i came back i would have been up but anyway i came back it was still 0-0 on villa i sat down with coffee and they scored now i had 72 cash out and i sat there watching fulham pound them for goal and sat and sat and then goal i am down so i amde error after error and lost now i knew that sitting at dinner i should have took the 47 when i got home it was 32 still treble bet but when it went to 72 i should have took it instantly that was pure value 72 for 10 in fact i had pure value every step of way till i didnt.
So what is value not betting a horse at 8/1 you think should be 5/1 but betting a horse at 8/1 that goes to 5/1 now you have value right at that point not before it and most time not after it either when it gets beat so with that in mind what is value it is putting on a bet and getting more back from that bet. S o with that in mind i thought how do you develop a horse racing system that has that kind of value in it and would pay longer term than loss and thats why i thought what i did yet still at football i let my day ruin what i should have done took the value i was getting when i was getting it so i had 10 getting 47 then 32 then 72 refused every single time got nothing. what i should have done is bet the double chelsea and brentford collected early pay out both 45 and went out for dinner. Now here the secret losses beat you.
 
gerry said:
If the market is correct overall and at certain times is wrong but on balance it gets it right yet if you bet every fav you loss and only 30% win in first place you cant say its because the odds where to short as its the dont win often enough to be correct every time 100% would need win but you pay them to bet them so you loss.
The fact of the matter is the market is the best guide only a lot better then any one individual but is still poor so what does that mean it means the whole secret is not in winning it is that picking winners is near impossible long term as long a s some one bets horses they will not pick enough winners to succeed long term at current odds or the massive majority wont.
So with that in mind is betting on horses a mugs game most people you speak to will say yes it is the market kills you the systems we all pick fail finally so what's wrong with us not realising it.
I will give one example why most fail but it happens to be a football bet i placed yesterday myself and when i worked out my system for horses why did i do something so stupid at football.
Here it was i bet a tenner treble at the football i fancied chelsea brentford and tottenham but since i go out every halloween for dinner i knew would miss the tottenham game in and stuck in aston villa instead.
So i had chelsea won and brentford won now i could have cashed out 47 before even going for dinner but did not first mistake well second as i should have bet tottenham and when i came back i would have been up but anyway i came back it was still 0-0 on villa i sat down with coffee and they scored now i had 72 cash out and i sat there watching fulham pound them for goal and sat and sat and then goal i am down so i amde error after error and lost now i knew that sitting at dinner i should have took the 47 when i got home it was 32 still treble bet but when it went to 72 i should have took it instantly that was pure value 72 for 10 in fact i had pure value every step of way till i didnt.
So what is value not betting a horse at 8/1 you think should be 5/1 but betting a horse at 8/1 that goes to 5/1 now you have value right at that point not before it and most time not after it either when it gets beat so with that in mind what is value it is putting on a bet and getting more back from that bet. S o with that in mind i thought how do you develop a horse racing system that has that kind of value in it and would pay longer term than loss and thats why i thought what i did yet still at football i let my day ruin what i should have done took the value i was getting when i was getting it so i had 10 getting 47 then 32 then 72 refused every single time got nothing. what i should have done is bet the double chelsea and brentford collected early pay out both 45 and went out for dinner. Now here the secret losses beat you.
Click to expand...
Being able to watch or not watch a game should not determine who you bet on
 
gerry said:
If the market is correct overall and at certain times is wrong but on balance it gets it right yet if you bet every fav you loss and only 30% win in first place you cant say its because the odds where to short as its the dont win often enough to be correct every time 100% would need win but you pay them to bet them so you loss.
The fact of the matter is the market is the best guide only a lot better then any one individual but is still poor so what does that mean it means the whole secret is not in winning it is that picking winners is near impossible long term as long a s some one bets horses they will not pick enough winners to succeed long term at current odds or the massive majority wont.
So with that in mind is betting on horses a mugs game most people you speak to will say yes it is the market kills you the systems we all pick fail finally so what's wrong with us not realising it.
I will give one example why most fail but it happens to be a football bet i placed yesterday myself and when i worked out my system for horses why did i do something so stupid at football.
Here it was i bet a tenner treble at the football i fancied chelsea brentford and tottenham but since i go out every halloween for dinner i knew would miss the tottenham game in and stuck in aston villa instead.
So i had chelsea won and brentford won now i could have cashed out 47 before even going for dinner but did not first mistake well second as i should have bet tottenham and when i came back i would have been up but anyway i came back it was still 0-0 on villa i sat down with coffee and they scored now i had 72 cash out and i sat there watching fulham pound them for goal and sat and sat and then goal i am down so i amde error after error and lost now i knew that sitting at dinner i should have took the 47 when i got home it was 32 still treble bet but when it went to 72 i should have took it instantly that was pure value 72 for 10 in fact i had pure value every step of way till i didnt.
So what is value not betting a horse at 8/1 you think should be 5/1 but betting a horse at 8/1 that goes to 5/1 now you have value right at that point not before it and most time not after it either when it gets beat so with that in mind what is value it is putting on a bet and getting more back from that bet. S o with that in mind i thought how do you develop a horse racing system that has that kind of value in it and would pay longer term than loss and thats why i thought what i did yet still at football i let my day ruin what i should have done took the value i was getting when i was getting it so i had 10 getting 47 then 32 then 72 refused every single time got nothing. what i should have done is bet the double chelsea and brentford collected early pay out both 45 and went out for dinner. Now here the secret losses beat you.
Click to expand...
I wouldn't cut bets short just because they're winning at the time. You probably don't cut losses because they're losing. Cutting winners is just beating yourself in my opinion.

I use the market in all my betting. If I have it at 14/1 and the market has it 5/2 then it's more likely that the market collectively factored something I haven't than my model being amazing.
 
well it depends on your out look take the liverpool game yesterday before a ball kicked i thought playing arsenal it would likely be a draw and my thought was if it is will be 1-1 so thats fine both can create goals and would have been surprised if no goals and usually one goal does decide these big games, so my thought was bet 1-1 for 10 and if this game goes to 1-1 take what i am offered as with lets just say for sake of it a team equalized 1-1 after 70 minutes and i got 2/1 my money that a win and decent win or even 5/2 which was odds on draw in first place so its all about winning and not caring what my feelings are i would say that thats the biggest mistake every punter makes they think they know better than reality and we dont but if we cant get our reality to be showing there at anytime take it because most times it will change in time.
And ofcourse i should not have bet my coupon on bet just so i wanted to watch it i dont do it in racing it was a lazy choice as i was coming home to settle down to it massive error as i said in describing it i should have bet the treble with tottenham.
 
Today I was working on the automatic parsing of tipsters' selections from OLBG, so I started my strategy on last 12 races. Wolverhampton had a nice winner — the Betfair starting price was around 40, and my NRS model rated Watch The King at a 41.49% chance of winning.

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