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Hcap longer odds selections

Jackform

Jackform

Gelding
The aim is to consider hcap runners with some form at better odds. The losing runs are longer but wins :D are more satisfying.
Catterick (going forecast G with some GS showers)
1.00 Versifier 8/1 mkt 11.30, D Cook up. Georgian Firebird 17/2, B Hughes up.
Comment: Checking with my usual market expectation I would have gone Keep The River 9/2, Massini's Dream 5/1, Raddle And Hume 5/1 dutch the three :).
 
2nd by a nose last time selection, so in the ball-park :).

Kempton (going forecast GS with some S)

2.40 Gortroe Joe 16/1 mkt 10.10. H Cobden up. (Notre Pari - O Murphy/B Gerachty combo will probably be fav, but too short opposite the risk in a race of this difficulty for punters IMO).
 
Post my getting out stakes in order of merit here rather than start another thread. These are VDW derivatives but not as we know him :) .

Royal Ascot (going forecast GS showers)

4.10 Finest Sound 9/4 (mkt 09.40), World Title 28/1, Dance Fever 22/1, Enemy 8/1

4.40 African Dream 15/8 (mkt 09.50), Declared Witness 9/1, Odyssey Girl 28/1, Dubai Love 5/1
 
More than 6 months since I last considered attempting to find bets at longer odds, but have to keep trying :D.

Ascot (going forecast S with some Hvy) market odds from 10.50.
1.50 market odds 10.50* 1, 3, 4, 6, 7, 9, 11, 12 indicating an open contest. Theoretical strong fav 11/4, contender 11/2, not expected longer than 10/1.

1* 5/1 (mkt 10.50) 2 (MY long odds rating) = 50/1 (Janika) - N Henderson?D Jacob
2. 20/1 4 = 25/1
3*. 11/2 4 = 25/1 (Lightly Squeeze)
4*. 9/1 7 = 13/1
5. 33/1 6 = 16/1
6*. 9/1 12 = 15/2 War Lord - C Tizzard/R Johnson
7*. 7/1 6 = 16/1
8. 14/1 11 = 8/1 I K Brunel - O Murphy/AP Heskin
9*. 8/1 8 = 12/1
10. 16/1 19 = 9/2 Dans Le Vent - E Williams/I Williams (5)
11*. 9/2 19 = 9/2 (Paddy's Motorbike)
12*. 11/1 3 = 33/1

Comment: Those indicated as contenders in the early market were Paddy's Motorbike, Janika, Lightly Squeeze, but it's not those I am interested in today. MY long-odds selection e. w. would be Dans Le Vent followed by War Lord and I K Brunel, however, you should please yourself :prankster:.

ATR form verdict in comparison.
DANNY KIRWAN was disappointing when last seen in a Grade 2 at Cheltenham in December but the eight-year-old had won impressively over C&D the time before and he can be given another chance on his handicap debut. Janika, who is currently rated 160 over fences, should not be underestimated on his return to hurdling, especially as he may improve for a wind operation. The shortlist is completed by Lightly Squeeze, Craigneiche and Arrivederci.
Top Tip: DANNY KIRWAN (9)
Watch out for: JANIKA (1)
 
Not far away the other day so trying another one for each-way today.

Plumpton (going forecast S with some Hvy and frozen places) RP Spotlight selects Zhiguli (7 pundits agree 7 oppose)
3.20 Market expected 09.50 no's 3, 4, 5, 6 indicating a win from these. Theoretical strong fav 2/1, contender 4/1, not expected longer than 8/1.

3. 2 = 40/1 MY odds looking for each-way (3/1 mkt) Crossgalesfamegame 6 tips
4. 14 = 7/2 (15/2) Bailarico (Greatrex yard form OK and 10lb claimer up)
5. 12 = 9/2 (15/2) Ridgeway Flyer
6. 15 = 10/3 (3/1) Zhiguli 8 tips

Comment: Following form Crossgalesfamegame and Zhiguli look the two to consider. However, I am after longer odds so it has to be Bailarico each-way.

ATR form verdict in comparison.
CROSSGALESFAMEGAME ran on well to finish behind The White Mouse for the second time this season when third at Cheltenham last month. The manner in which she finished suggests the step up in distance will bring about further progression with the handicapper having left her on the same mark. Bailarico is a thorough stayer who bounced back to winning ways at Catterick last time and he commands respect along with Zhiguli.
Top Tip: CROSSGALESFAMEGAME (3)
Watch out for: BAILARICO (4)
 
Cheltenham (going forecast S with some GS and showers) RP Spotlight selects Houx Gris (1 pundit agrees 12 oppose)
4.15 Market expected 09.15 no's 1, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 12, 13, 15, 17, 20 indicating an open contest.

1. 18/1 (mkt) 22/1 (MY fair odds)
3. 9/2, 20/1
4. 14/1, 22/1
5. 20/1, 18/1 Druid's Altar (D)
6. 9/1 , 22/1
7. 15/2, 18/1 Riviers D'Etel 1 tip (DBF)
12. 18/1, 20/1
13. 9/2, 20/1 Houx Gris 2 tips
15. 12/1, 20/1
17. 16/1, 20/1
20. 11/1, 20/1

Comment: 1 point each the three named plus no 16. Her Indoors 22/1 (mkt) 18/1 (MY fair odds).

ATR form verdict in comparison.
Houx Gris is the 'talking' horse in this race having been put up on almost every preview panel in the build up. He was beaten 20 lengths when third on his first start for Paul Nicholls at Chepstow earlier in the year, but has reportedly come on plenty since then and been saved for this contest ever since. Saint Sam finished second behind Quilixios in Grade 1 company at Leopardstown last month, though his prestigious handler doesn't have a great record in this race and the third from that contest, BUSSELTON, might just be open to greater improvement receiving 4lb from the Willie Mullins-trained runner now in handicap company. The selection was also second on Irish debut behind Zanahiyr, who is joint-favourite for the Triumph Hurdle later in the week, and could pay the form a handsome compliment wearing cheekpieces for the first time. The Mastercraftsman gelding looks sure to be suited by this test of stamina, and a UK handicap mark of 135 looks more than fair on what will be just his fifth career start for Joseph O' Brien, who won this in 2019 with Band Of Outlaws.
Top Tip: BUSSELTON (6)
Watch out for: SAINT SAM (3)
 
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