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Handicapping by Trainer

For myself its always first find the horse but likewise i am ever open to learning so best of for this thread. :)
 
This should prove interesting.

I produce my own trainer ratings which are only slight less statistically as strong as the OR re pointing to the winner which is why I factor them into producing my master rating on my racecard.
 
If we look at some from yesterday

With Horse and J and Trainer and my allowance for age

1597573744804.png

Trainer only
1597573896489.png

Improve ranking position by 1
==================================================

With

1597574155078.png

Without

1597574241941.png

Drops the winner by 1
 
How do you know which horse to focus on pre-race?
Ready And Able has also dropped ( as Hukum did ).

I don't understand.....your two examples, Mr. Style and Hukum are doing the opposite......1 up, 1 down....and both won as we know.

I'm probably with mick on this one......but always open.
 
retriever said:
How do you know which horse to focus on pre-race?
Ready And Able has also dropped ( as Hukum did ).

I don't understand.....your two examples, Mr. Style and Hukum are doing the opposite......1 up, 1 down....and both won as we know.

I'm probably with mick on this one......but always open.
Click to expand...
just rating the race by the trainer rather than all other incidentals - I could have posted loads of previous winners but that would not have gone down to well and would make conversation stunted - the idea is to explore ratings not just take the OR as lead stat.

If regular punters want to just find the horse - better stick to better classes of racing - mick has a different MO, he has very few bets and is ultra selective.
 
Leodis said:
Trainers do have their own agenda and it is important to incorporate some form of rating for them in any analysis
Click to expand...
No it isn't important Leodis Leodis , I understand how sir mark prescott gets his horses handicapped but i don't need to try and rate him.
Another sir stoutey won a race at newc june 1st with ALIGNAK , for me he won with plenty in hand but only got a 7lb rise thanks to the jockey keeping a bit hidden. Stoute then makes a mess of his 96 mark by running him in a listed race ( just touched off) and goes up another 12lb, No option now but to go group racing and will probably go up again after a fine run yesterday.

Who knows why he chose that route for alignak, maybe owners choice etc....but you can't put any kind of rating to the trainer without knowing the facts or at least that's my opinion.
 
markfinn said:
just rating the race by the trainer rather than all other incidentals - I could have posted loads of previous winners but that would not have gone down to well and would make conversation stunted - the idea is to explore ratings not just take the OR as lead stat.

If regular punters want to just find the horse - better stick to better classes of racing - mick has a different MO, he has very few bets and is ultra selective.
Click to expand...
How do you put a number to a particular trainer ?
 
tacker said:
Stoute then makes a mess of his 96 mark by running him in a listed race ( just touched off) and goes up another 12lb, No option now but to go group racing and will probably go up again after a fine run yesterday.
Click to expand...

Perhaps he has found his class ceiling - I doubt any horse has ever been campaigned 100% throughout its carrier under it's true class
 
Hardest one is recency - Stable size and class of the inmates will dictate recency / stable fitness numbers - can be very misleading but all trainers have to win a certain % or the customers will not keep coming so ? you would think they should be having a winner a month in order to retain any interest - larger stables i.e - M Johnston will require several winners a week . So unless its really obvious, research is required on stable size and expectations.

I used to subscribe to a set of rating where the stable were rated 1 - 5 and any under 3 were supposed to be ignored - but so many won I stopped that using that key.

Course Form I look at 5 years - Same with SR - all same with Jockeys - treat all ratings same - so convert ratings to scale of 1 - 100 in order to match or - if or Horses OR is over 100 I rate all down equally. = 140 would be 100 and 110 in same race would be 70 - so end up with 3 rating 1 - 100 for comparison or totaling.
 
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