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Handicap races standard odds

Jackform

Jackform

Mare
The handicapper compiling official ratings (OR) attempts to give each runner an equal chance so the 'standard odds' for a race is one less than field, ignoring any set to carry more than their long handicap weight. Being at a loose end with Beverley abandoned I considered the Chepstow 5.15, class 6 4yo+ hcap over 10f plus on going forecast as soft.
14 runner field with 3 a non-runner and 14 out of the hcap leaving leaving 13 runners to consider, so the 'standard odds' are 12/1 (decimal odds 13).
Ignore those currently longer than 12/1 as 'not off' today eliminates nos 1, 2, 6, 8, 9, 10, 12. The situation could change if any of these shorten in the market in the next half hour.
Those remaining to consider are nos 4, 5, 7, 11, 13.
Historically favourites win about 25% of races with not more than about 12 runners so a strong jolly in this race would be about 11/4 (3.75) and this is not currently the case. No 5 Thane Of Cawdor was 7.4 last time I checked.
Those closest to 11/2 (6.5) would seem to have the best chance and they are all much of a muchness, perhaps eliminating 13 Belle Park (CD) but off track 217 days.
More work is needed with the others or a mini-punters book with the rest?
 
Hi Jackform Jackform

Only 5 previous Examples for this race

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Below 6/1 have the best record in the few example that there are, but a nightmare of a race class 6 on soft going

Horses who have won on Soft & Heavy in this race

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Belle Park is a system horse on th IS
 
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I was down to Belle Park also today, but was off the track to long for my liking, but i have noticed a few of these winning lately if C/D winners. Also was set to carry a very low wth which is a good factor in alot of cases.
 
:oops: The theory profile was a fair indicator yesterday, pity I threw the baby out with the bathwater . I will try another one although the going conditions have me baffled at present. Haydock 3.50 class 3 8f hcap on going that is anybody's guess. Currently two non-runners so theoretiaclly a strong favourite would be 3.25, failing that something around the 5.5 mark, and any longer than 10 ignored if they fail to shorten in the market.

1. non-runner
2. f/cast 15 but 6.6 market 9.30am Chosen Character (C&D2CD3) up 9 lbs, ridden and weakened 10th of 16 33days ago -8L Hay 8f 0-105 Good
3. 5.5/7.8 Autun (D) down 8 lbs, ridden kept on won 1 of 9 252 days ago +1L Kem 11f 0-85 standard.
4. 12/14.5
5. non-runner
6. 21/25
7. 15/14.5
8. 8.6/9.6 Lord Aeryn (D) down 8 lbs, ridden weakened 10th of 14 12 days ago -9L Tsk 8f 0-100 good
9. 7/9.4 Anderiego (D2) down 8 lbs, pushed lost place 11th of 14 26 days ago -11L Tsk 0-100 good
10. 5/3.85 Ardmay (CD2) up 1 lb, pushed stayed on no impression 3rd of 8 20 days ago -2L Rip 0-90 GS (currently a strong contender dropped back in trip, going OK, Ryan/Spencer best combo)
11. 50/27
12. 9/14.5
 
Bottom weight won yesterday at odds beyond the pale and quite unexpected even in a tight hcap. Another tight hcap today Newmarket 3.40 class 3 4yo+ extended sprint hcap over 7f on going f/cast soft. With 8 runners a strong fav would be 2.75 and currently not so, 4.5 should indicate some chance, over 10 is 'not expected'.

Newmarket 3.40
1. 4.5 Betfair f/cast 7.2 market 9.30am. Victoire de Lyphar (D4) 2nd 29 days ago GS
2. 19? 19?
3. 7.6/7 Life Partner (C&D) 3rd 18 days ago G
4. 23? 22?
5. 17? 19?
6. 6.6/6.2 Majestic Moon (C&DD2) 2nd 28 days ago G
7. 5/4.5 Hillbilly Boy (D4BF) 2nd 21 days ago S
8. 5.5/5.1 Czech It Out (D) 2nd 7days ago G
 
Elsewhere on the site is some comment regarding adjusting the OR with filters. I used to do that years ago by considering the best class of a runners previous three outings to make the adjustment, in which case the Newmarket 3.40 hcap would look like this and Hillbilly Boy would be nowhere in sight.

Newmarket 3.40
1. 95 Victoire de Lyphar
2. 89
3. 94 Life Partner
4. 82
5. 84
6. 91 Majestic Moon
7. 72
8. 80

I do operate in a time-warp decades ago at my age and being absolutely IT illiterate so perhaps best to take my comments with a pinch of salt.
 
Hi Jackform Jackform

Eric Bowers devised a Method using BHA Rating and Betting Odds

Screen Shot 2014-05-30 at 12.12.47.png

Screen Shot 2014-05-30 at 12.13.01.png

Screen Shot 2014-05-30 at 12.13.20.png


Screen Shot 2014-05-30 at 12.13.30.png

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Hi Suggested using a Handicap that was evenly balanced to get the best effect form this method and more runners than the Newmarket 3.40.

If using the method I would suggest altering the method slightly as The Weights can change the pecking order if it is a 3 Y-O+ Handicap as the younger horses may have a higher BHA Rating but could be on a lower weight because of WFA
 
"I do operate in a time-warp decades ago at my age and being absolutely IT illiterate so perhaps best to take my comments with a pinch of salt."

JF,have you considered that,at present,we have probably more info/stats available than at any time in the past,and yet the bookies have never made so much as they do now,you can buy almost anything...except experience:drinks:
 
The Final Instalment is where Bowers has covered the method outlined by Jackform Jackform where once he has his shortlist he uses the Number Of Runners and Betting Odds to reduce that list further i.e. if the Shortlist has any horses that are at odds greater than the number of runners, then those are discarded too


Screen Shot 2014-05-30 at 15.22.39.png
 
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The Bowers Method of Shortlisting seems to have worked out ok, reduced the Field by Half

Screen Shot 2014-05-30 at 15.52.22.png

Cross Check with @horseplayers Figures from the IS

Screen Shot 2014-05-30 at 15.55.44.png
 
Is it possible to achieve the same result with a simple systematic process? In my time-warp bubble I found a suggestion from that old dodgy dutchman VDW about 1980. He advised take the three off track for the shortest time from the first five in the betting forecast. Adding a couple of filters re acting on the going and being close up might be the solution.
York 2.50 where I sorted the first three (tried anyway) from the Betfair market at 10am.

1. Monsieur Joe won here 16 days ago, GS* - a selection
4. Magical Macey 16 days ago, GS*
10. Jamaican Bolt 17 days ago, S*
16. Long Awaited 16 days ago, S*
18 Top Boy 3rd here 16 days ago close up - a selection
 
Newmarket 2.50 by adjusting the OR for class on GS, just the top five for interest.

1. Monsieur Joe 101
4. Magic Macey 102
6. Body And Soul 98
7. Ancient Cross 98 (top trainer/jockey/horse stats for the race by infineform)
8. Inxile 97

18. Top Boy 87 in the bottom third for class but Hillbilly made it.
 
Chesham said:
Hi Jackform Jackform

Eric Bowers devised a Method using BHA Rating and Betting Odds

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Hi Suggested using a Handicap that was evenly balanced to get the best effect form this method and more runners than the Newmarket 3.40.

If using the method I would suggest altering the method slightly as The Weights can change the pecking order if it is a 3 Y-O+ Handicap as the younger horses may have a higher BHA Rating but could be on a lower weight because of WFA
Click to expand...
The Eric Bowers method for horse racing is a system designed to narrow down the field in handicap races with 10 or more runners, making it easier to identify potential winners. It was originally shared in the betting magazine "Smartsig" over two decades ago.




Here's a breakdown of the core principles:

  • Focus on Handicaps: The method is specifically for handicap races, where horses carry different weights based on their assessed ability, aiming to give all horses an equal chance.
  • Combining BHA Ratings/Weights and Betting Forecasts: Bowers' system uses both the official British Horseracing Authority (BHA) ratings (or weights) and the Racing Post betting forecast (pre-post odds) to create a special rating for each horse.


  • Weight Rating:
    • The top-weighted horse (or highest-rated) is assigned a rating of 0.


    • Subsequent runners are given a rating based on their weight difference from the top-weighted horse (e.g., if a horse is 1 pound below the top weight, its weight rating is 1).

  • Combining with Odds: This weight rating is then added to the horse's pre-post betting odds (e.g., a horse at 4/1 with a weight rating of 2.0 would have a final rating of 6.0).


  • Halving the Field: The main goal is to eliminate approximately 50% of the runners. You do this by rejecting horses with the highest combined rating numbers, working down until about half the field is cut.
  • Identifying "Balanced" Races: Bowers also suggested looking for "balanced" races, where the middle-weighted horses are within a pound or two of the exact middle weight in the race. He advised avoiding races with very condensed weights, as this indicates the handicapper sees most runners as being of similar ability.
  • Underlying Premise: The method is based on the idea that the extra weight better horses carry isn't always enough to prevent them from winning more than their share, especially over shorter distances.
In essence, the Eric Bowers method aims to provide a systematic and relatively quick way to reduce a large field of contenders, allowing for more focused analysis on a smaller, more promising group of horses. It's not a "get rich quick" scheme but rather a long-term approach that, when consistently applied, can help punters make more informed betting choices.

Example Race From today
Let's analyze this race using the Eric Bowers method.
First, we need to address a couple of issues:
  • Two horses are listed as "NR" (Non-Runner): Thunder Roar and Yanifer. The Eric Bowers method works best with a fixed number of runners, so we will exclude them from our calculations. This leaves us with 8 runners.
  • The odds for some horses are given as a range (e.g., 10/1 - 11/1). For consistency, I will use the mid-point of the tightest odds range provided. If only one odd is provided, I'll use that.
Step 1: Determine the Top Weight and Calculate Weight Ratings
The highest weight in the race is 10st 2lb (for He's A Monster and Bobby Bennu). This horse (or horses) gets a weight rating of 0. We'll then calculate the difference in pounds for each horse from this top weight.
  • 10st 2lb = 142 lbs
  • 9st 13lb = 139 lbs
  • 9st 11lb = 137 lbs
  • 9st 9lb = 135 lbs
  • 9st 8lb = 134 lbs
  • 9st 7lb = 133 lbs
  • 9st 5lb = 131 lbs
  • 9st 4lb = 130 lbs
Now, let's calculate the weight rating for each active horse:
  1. He's A Monster: 10st 2lb (142 lbs) - 142 lbs = 0
  2. Bobby Bennu: 10st 2lb (142 lbs) - 142 lbs = 0
  3. Palmar Bay: 9st 9lb (135 lbs) - 142 lbs = -7 lbs. We take the absolute value, so 7
  4. Rogue Sensation: 9st 8lb (134 lbs) - 142 lbs = -8 lbs. So 8
  5. Flaming Rib: 9st 7lb (133 lbs) - 142 lbs = -9 lbs. So 9
  6. Probe: 9st 5lb (131 lbs) - 142 lbs = -11 lbs. So 11
  7. Kindest Nation: 9st 4lb (130 lbs) - 142 lbs = -12 lbs. So 12
(Note: The weight rating in Eric Bowers is typically presented as positive numbers representing the difference below the top weight, so I've adjusted the negative differences to positive here for clarity as per the method's usual interpretation.)
Step 2: Assign Betting Forecast Odds
Let's take the closest common odds provided for each horse:
  1. He's A Monster: 10/1 (Odds = 10.0)
  2. Bobby Bennu: 2/1 (Odds = 2.0)
  3. Palmar Bay: 9/4 (Odds = 2.25)
  4. Rogue Sensation: 10/1 (Odds = 10.0)
  5. Flaming Rib: 6/1 (Odds = 6.0)
  6. Probe: 11/1 (Odds = 11.0)
  7. Kindest Nation: 18/1 (Odds = 18.0)
Step 3: Calculate the Combined Rating (Weight Rating + Odds)
Now, let's add the weight rating and the odds for each horse:
  1. He's A Monster: 0 + 10.0 = 10.0
  2. Bobby Bennu: 0 + 2.0 = 2.0
  3. Palmar Bay: 7 + 2.25 = 9.25
  4. Rogue Sensation: 8 + 10.0 = 18.0
  5. Flaming Rib: 9 + 6.0 = 15.0
  6. Probe: 11 + 11.0 = 22.0
  7. Kindest Nation: 12 + 18.0 = 30.0
Step 4: Rank and Eliminate Horses
We have 7 runners, so the goal is to eliminate roughly half, meaning we'd look to keep around 3 or 4 horses. We reject horses with the highest combined ratings.
Here are the horses ranked by combined rating (lowest to highest, meaning best to worst according to the system):
  1. Bobby Bennu: 2.0
  2. Palmar Bay: 9.25
  3. He's A Monster: 10.0
  4. Flaming Rib: 15.0
  5. Rogue Sensation: 18.0
  6. Probe: 22.0
  7. Kindest Nation: 30.0
Based on the Eric Bowers method, the top contenders would be Bobby Bennu, Palmar Bay, and He's A Monster. You would then focus your further analysis on these three horses.
Is it a Balanced Handicap?
To determine if it's a "balanced handicap" according to Bowers, we need to look at the spread of weights, particularly around the middle.
The weights range from 10st 2lb (142 lbs) down to 9st 4lb (130 lbs). Total spread: 142 - 130 = 12 lbs.
With 7 runners, the "middle" would ideally be around the 3rd or 4th horse in terms of weight, and you'd look for those weights to be somewhat condensed.
Let's list the weights again:
  • He's A Monster: 10st 2lb (142 lbs)
  • Bobby Bennu: 10st 2lb (142 lbs)
  • Palmar Bay: 9st 9lb (135 lbs)
  • Rogue Sensation: 9st 8lb (134 lbs)
  • Flaming Rib: 9st 7lb (133 lbs)
  • Probe: 9st 5lb (131 lbs)
  • Kindest Nation: 9st 4lb (130 lbs)
The middle weights (Palmar Bay, Rogue Sensation, Flaming Rib, Probe) are spread across 135 lbs down to 131 lbs, which is a 4-pound difference. While not extremely condensed, it's also not highly dispersed.
Given the 12lb total spread in a 7-runner race, and a 4lb spread across the middle group, this race could be considered moderately balanced. It's not one of the highly condensed "trap" races Bowers warned about, nor is it extremely stretched out.







Which horses stand out





Based on the Eric Bowers method, the horses that stand out as the strongest contenders in this particular race are:
  1. Bobby Bennu (Combined Rating: 2.0): This horse is the top pick by a significant margin. It's joint top-weight, which gives it a 0 weight rating, and has the lowest forecast odds (2/1), indicating strong market confidence. This combination puts it clearly ahead in the Bowers system.
  2. Palmar Bay (Combined Rating: 9.25): While carrying 7 lbs less than the top-weights, its relatively low odds (9/4) make it a strong second contender according to this method.
  3. He's A Monster (Combined Rating: 10.0): As a joint top-weight (0 weight rating), its slightly longer odds (10/1) push it behind Bobby Bennu and Palmar Bay, but it still represents a potential qualifier within the Bowers shortlist, especially if aiming for the top half of the field.
Summary of Stand-Out Horses:
  • Bobby Bennu
  • Palmar Bay
  • He's A Monster
These are the horses that the Eric Bowers method would identify for further, more in-depth analysis, as they have the most favorable combined weight and odds ratings. Remember, the Bowers method is a shortlisting tool, not a definitive picking system, so further form study on these three would be the next step.
 
Example for tomorrow (Not financially involved in this race, but hopefully explains how the Bowers Metjod could be applied for those who are new to this method)

Applying the Eric Bowers Method to the Wilmot-Smith Memorial Handicap​



Let's apply the Eric Bowers method to the 3:40 Ripon 6f Wilmot-Smith Memorial Handicap on August 4, 2025.



Step 1: Determine the Top-Weighted Horse​



The top-weighted horse is Mister Sketch with 9st 13lb. We assign this horse a weight rating of 0.



Step 2: Calculate Weight Ratings for All Other Horses​



We'll calculate the weight difference for each horse from the top-weighted horse (9st 13lb) and assign that as its weight rating. For simplicity, we'll convert all weights to pounds (1 stone = 14 pounds).

  • Mister Sketch: 9st 13lb = 139 lbs. Weight Rating: 0
  • Westmorian: 9st 11lb = 137 lbs. Difference: 139 - 137 = 2 lbs. Weight Rating: 2
  • Mandurah: 9st 10lb = 136 lbs. Difference: 139 - 136 = 3 lbs. Weight Rating: 3
  • First Folio: 9st 9lb = 135 lbs. Difference: 139 - 135 = 4 lbs. Weight Rating: 4
  • Archduke Ferdinand: 9st 8lb = 134 lbs. Difference: 139 - 134 = 5 lbs. Weight Rating: 5
  • Grant Wood: 9st 6lb = 132 lbs. Difference: 139 - 132 = 7 lbs. Weight Rating: 7
  • Eye Of Dubai: 9st 6lb = 132 lbs. Difference: 139 - 132 = 7 lbs. Weight Rating: 7
  • Another Investment: 9st 4lb = 130 lbs. Difference: 139 - 130 = 9 lbs. Weight Rating: 9
  • Kats Bob: 9st 3lb = 129 lbs. Difference: 139 - 129 = 10 lbs. Weight Rating: 10
  • Kodiac Thriller: 9st 2lb = 128 lbs. Difference: 139 - 128 = 11 lbs. Weight Rating: 11
  • Fortamour: 9st 1lb = 127 lbs. Difference: 139 - 127 = 12 lbs. Weight Rating: 12
  • Mister Sox: 8st 12lb = 124 lbs. Difference: 139 - 124 = 15 lbs. Weight Rating: 15


Step 3: Combine Weight Rating with Betting Forecast Odds​



Now we'll add the weight rating to the betting forecast odds (using the lowest odds provided if multiple are listed).

  • Mister Sketch: Weight Rating 0 + Odds 9/1 (10.0) = 10.0
  • Westmorian: Weight Rating 2 + Odds 12/1 (13.0) = 15.0
  • Mandurah: Weight Rating 3 + Odds 5/1 (6.0) = 9.0
  • First Folio: Weight Rating 4 + Odds 9/2 (5.5) = 9.5
  • Archduke Ferdinand: Weight Rating 5 + Odds 11/1 (12.0) = 17.0
  • Grant Wood: Weight Rating 7 + Odds 12/1 (13.0) = 20.0
  • Eye Of Dubai: Weight Rating 7 + Odds 7/1 (8.0) = 15.0
  • Another Investment: Weight Rating 9 + Odds 10/1 (11.0) = 20.0
  • Kats Bob: Weight Rating 10 + Odds 15/2 (8.5) = 18.5
  • Kodiac Thriller: Weight Rating 11 + Odds 13/2 (7.5) = 18.5
  • Fortamour: Weight Rating 12 + Odds 15/2 (8.5) = 20.5
  • Mister Sox: Weight Rating 15 + Odds 10/1 (11.0) = 26.0


Step 4: Halve the Field​



There are 12 runners in this race. The goal is to eliminate approximately 50%, meaning we want to cut around 6 horses. We reject horses with the highest combined rating numbers.

Let's list them in ascending order of their combined rating:

  1. Mandurah: 9.0
  2. First Folio: 9.5
  3. Mister Sketch: 10.0
  4. Westmorian: 15.0
  5. Eye Of Dubai: 15.0
  6. Archduke Ferdinand: 17.0
  7. Kats Bob: 18.5
  8. Kodiac Thriller: 18.5
  9. Grant Wood: 20.0
  10. Another Investment: 20.0
  11. Fortamour: 20.5
  12. Mister Sox: 26.0
To halve the field, we cut the 6 horses with the highest combined ratings:

  • Mister Sox (26.0)
  • Fortamour (20.5)
  • Grant Wood (20.0)
  • Another Investment (20.0)
  • Kats Bob (18.5)
  • Kodiac Thriller (18.5)
The remaining horses, according to the Eric Bowers method, are:

  • Mandurah (9.0)
  • First Folio (9.5)
  • Mister Sketch (10.0)
  • Westmorian (15.0)
  • Eye Of Dubai (15.0)
  • Archduke Ferdinand (17.0)


Step 5: Assess if it's a "Balanced" Handicap​



To assess if it's a "balanced" handicap, we look at the spread of weights and whether the middle-weighted horses are within a pound or two of the exact middle weight.

  • Highest weight: 9st 13lb (Mister Sketch)
  • Lowest weight: 8st 12lb (Mister Sox)
The total weight range is 9st 13lb - 8st 12lb = 1st 1lb, or 15 pounds.

The exact middle weight would be (9st 13lb + 8st 12lb) / 2. 139 lbs (Mister Sketch) + 124 lbs (Mister Sox) = 263 lbs 263 lbs / 2 = 131.5 lbs, which is approximately 9st 5.5lb.

Let's look at the weights of the middle horses in the original field:

  • Grant Wood: 9st 6lb (132 lbs)
  • Eye Of Dubai: 9st 6lb (132 lbs)
  • Another Investment: 9st 4lb (130 lbs)
These horses are all very close to the calculated middle weight of 9st 5.5lb (131.5 lbs). The weights are not "very condensed," as there's a 15lb spread from top to bottom. The presence of horses very close to the theoretical middle weight, combined with a reasonable spread of weights, suggests this could be considered a balanced handicap according to the Eric Bowers method. This would indicate that the race is suitable for applying the method, as the handicapper hasn't deemed most runners to be of very similar ability.
 
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Combining Eric Bowers with Timeform Ratings & Comments:​



Now, let's analyze the Timeform ratings (TFR) and comments for the horses remaining after the Eric Bowers filter, to see which truly stand out.

No.Horse NameWgtOREric Bowers RatingTimeform Rating (TFR)Timeform Comments
4First Folio9-98813.0103"useful handicapper: 15/2, best effort this season when short-head second of 9 to Trefor at Ripon last time, going with enthusiasm and only edged out post: stays 7f: acts on polytrack, tapeta, soft and good to firm going: wears headgear."
3Mandurah9-109314.092+"kuseful-looking filly: highly tried in last three runs and needs a close look on handicap debut... off 9 months, 11/1, shaped better than final position suggests when 7½ lengths last of 13 to Medusa Merger in listed race at Deauville last time, disputing lead long way (should be sharper for run): should stay at least 7f."
1Mister Sketch9-139217.098"useful performer: creditable 2 lengths third of 13 to Phoebus in minor event at Al Uqda last time: left Eve Johnson Houghton after final (2024) start: stays 7f: acts on good to firm and heavy going: sometimes in cheekpieces."
6Grant Wood9-68519.0102"workmanlike gelding: fairly useful handicapper: won at Southwell, Newcastle, Haydock and Ripon (by 1¾ lengths from Another Baar) in 2024: off 7 weeks, 25/1, well held at Haydock last time: usually races at 6f/7f: acts on polytrack, tapeta and firm going: has worn headgear."
10Kodiac Thriller9-28119.0104"sturdy gelding: fairly useful handicapper: won at Thirsk (by 2 lengths from Equity Law) in May: 5/2, creditable 1¾ lengths second of 8 to Rosenpur at Chester last time: stays 7f: acts on polytrack, firm and good to soft going: front runner/races prominently."
9Kats Bob9-38220.0102"fairly useful handicapper: completed 4-timer between February/April... also won at York (by ½ length from Jonny Concrete) in June: 50/1, looked back in form when 2¼ lengths sixth of 14 to Nariko at Hamilton last time, not ideally placed from wide draw: stays 7f: acts on tapeta, good to firm and heavy going: usually wears headgear: usually races close up."
Export to Sheets
Key Observations and Stand-Out Horses:

  1. First Folio (Eric Bowers Rating: 13.0, Timeform Rating: 103):
    • Eric Bowers strong candidate: Has the lowest combined rating, indicating a good balance of weight and perceived odds.
    • Timeform positive: Timeform gives him a high TFR of 103 and highlights his "best effort this season" when finishing second at Ripon last time, suggesting he's in good form and well-suited to the course. His ability to go "with enthusiasm" is also a plus for a 6f race.
    • Stand Out? Yes, the combination of a very strong Eric Bowers rating and excellent recent Timeform form makes First Folio a significant stand-out.
  2. Mandurah (Eric Bowers Rating: 14.0, Timeform Rating: 92+):
    • Eric Bowers strong candidate: Second-lowest combined rating.
    • Timeform cautious but intrigued: Her TFR of 92+ indicates potential, and the comment "needs a close look on handicap debut" and "should be sharper for run" suggests she could be much better than her last result. The "disputing lead long way" also points to latent ability.
    • Stand Out? Potentially. While her Timeform rating isn't as high as others, her low Bowers rating combined with the "unexposed" and "should be sharper" comments make her an intriguing prospect on handicap debut. She's less of a proven commodity at this level than First Folio but has upside.
  3. Mister Sketch (Eric Bowers Rating: 17.0, Timeform Rating: 98):
    • Eric Bowers decent candidate: Middle of the pack among the remaining horses.
    • Timeform moderate: His TFR of 98 is solid, and he was "creditable" last time. However, the comments don't highlight significant upside or a particularly strong recent run, especially being "on dangerous mark back in Britain" according to the initial comments.
    • Stand Out? Less so than First Folio or Mandurah's potential.
  4. Grant Wood (Eric Bowers Rating: 19.0, Timeform Rating: 102):
    • Eric Bowers weaker candidate: Higher on the Bowers scale.
    • Timeform positive but last run poor: High TFR of 102, but the "well held at Haydock last time" is a significant concern. He's a "workmanlike" gelding who has won at Ripon before, but recent form is a drawback.
    • Stand Out? No, the last run is a red flag despite the TFR.
  5. Kodiac Thriller (Eric Bowers Rating: 19.0, Timeform Rating: 104):
    • Eric Bowers weaker candidate: Higher on the Bowers scale, same as Grant Wood.
    • Timeform very strong: Timeform's highest TFR among these at 104, and the analyst's verdict specifically names him as a consistent horse who "can make another bold bid." "Front runner/races prominently" aligns with the "Strong" pace forecast, though the specific hint warns against hold-up horses benefiting from a strong pace.
    • Stand Out? Yes, primarily due to the very high Timeform rating and strong analyst support. Despite a higher Bowers rating, his consistency and TFR make him a strong contender.
  6. Kats Bob (Eric Bowers Rating: 20.0, Timeform Rating: 102):
    • Eric Bowers weakest candidate: Highest of the remaining horses on the Bowers scale.
    • Timeform positive: High TFR of 102 and "looked back in form" recently after winning at York. The comment about not being "ideally placed from wide draw" last time offers an excuse.
    • Stand Out? Less so than First Folio or Kodiac Thriller. The higher Bowers rating makes him a borderline inclusion by the method, though his Timeform rating is good.


Conclusion on Stand-Out Horses:​



Based on the combined analysis:

  • First Folio stands out as the strongest candidate. His low Eric Bowers rating combined with a high Timeform rating and excellent recent form makes him a compelling choice.
  • Kodiac Thriller is also a strong stand-out. Despite a higher Eric Bowers rating, his top Timeform rating and positive analyst verdict highlight his consistency and ability, suggesting he might be able to overcome the weight-odds combination that places him higher on the Bowers scale.
  • Mandurah is an interesting dark horse. Her low Eric Bowers rating and the potential for significant improvement on handicap debut, as hinted by Timeform, make her a horse to watch very closely, especially if she's overlooked in the betting.
The Eric Bowers method successfully narrowed the field. When combined with Timeform ratings and comments, it allows for a more focused analysis, highlighting horses like First Folio and Kodiac Thriller as the most promising, with Mandurah as an intriguing outsider.
 
I think it is better to use the ORs to take care of the WFA allowance. I also deduct the overall score from a base of 100 for easier reading. Highest is best
 
Leodis said:
I think it is better to use the ORs to take care of the WFA allowance. I also deduct the overall score from a base of 100 for easier reading. Highest is best
Click to expand...
yes it it is an anomaly when tree year olds are in a 3+ Handicap. Personally I don’t use Bowers Ratings, but not to stop others exploring Bowers

When the Class Rtings had Bowers Ratings we also used OR’s as opposed to weights
 
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