Handicap Debutants

[tractorboy]

Handicap Debutants June 1

Luhaif 3.10 Doncaster
Operation Chariot (IRE) 3.10 Doncaster
Autspread 3.10 Doncaster
Matrooh (USA) 3.10 Doncaster
Remote 3.10 Doncaster
Majestic Oasis 3.45 Doncaster
Princeofthedesert 5.20 Doncaster
Space Ship 1.35 Epsom
Forging The Path (USA) 1.35 Epsom
Jiroft (ITY) 3.15 Epsom
Montefeltro 3.20 Hexham
Marmalade Moon 6.25 Lingfield
Duchess Of Gazeley (IRE) 8.25 Lingfield
Inherited 8.25 Lingfield
Soul Intent (IRE) 8.25 Lingfield
Bin Singspiel 2.55 Musselburgh
Hasheem 2.55 Musselburgh
Alta Lilea (IRE) 3.30 Musselburgh
Ebony Express 7.40 Newcastle
Enchanted Garden 8.10 Newcastle
Algar Lad 8.40 Newcastle
Different 8.40 Newcastle
Rock N Rover (IRE) 4.15 Tramore
Ravens Claw (IRE) 5.15 Tramore
Premiere Lamour (IRE) 5.15 Tramore
Walcot Lathyrus 1.55 Worcester
All Hope 5.10 Worcester
Abolitionist (IRE) 5.10 Worcester

 

[Samacas]

Have been weighed down with life's 'other things' lately so haven't had much chance to develop this, but I thought it was about time I gave some input here.

My area of interest centred around horses running their first handicap after 3 or max 4 'non-inspiring' maidens.

Running a longer distance(at least 2 furlongs more)
Preferably down in class
Different going to most previous races.


This is all perhaps total nonsense but the ones I find of interest today:

14:55 Musselburgh - Bin Singspiel 4-1
This one is actually stepping up in class and distance. Should improve for the extra 2 furlongs and first time on G/f.

17:10 Worcester - Abolitionist 14-1
First run outside Ireland, stepping up in trip, although no class available race value is far less than last race, first time on ground g-g/f,

19:40 Newcastle - Ebony Express 16-1
Up 3 furlongs in trip but same class, showed it's best form at this track on good ground and may be good enough for a place today.

20:10 Newcastle - Enchanted Garden 6-1
Ran well in bumpers before turning to 'proper flat' at shorter distances, but stepping back up to 2miles today.
Down in class and going shouldn't be a problem

20:25 Lingfield Park - Soul Intent 16-1, and Inherited 5-1
Soul Intent has been begging for further and an extra 3 furlongs today should see some difference, same class and course as last run.

Sir Mark Prescott's first time handicappers always have to be respected and having started at 80-1 in the same class at Kempton in its last race, Inherited comes here as 2nd favourite. Up 2 furlongs in trip is obviously expected to do better.

 

[Samacas]

Quite a pleasing day and the deciding factor seems to be 'what they do in the live market'

14:55 Musselburgh - Bin Singspiel 4-1 stayed at 4-1 unplaced
17:10 Worcester - Abolitionist 14-1 shortened to 8-1 and finished 4th of 16
19:40 Newcastle - Ebony Express 16-1 shortened slightly to 12-1 finished a creditable 5th, 2 noses out of the places
20:10 Newcastle - Enchanted Garden 6-1 halved in price to 3-1 won comfortably
20:25 Lingfield Park - Soul Intent 16-1 shortened to 10-1 and won well
and Inherited 5-1 drifted to 8-1 and finished 5th

 

[Flipacoin]

This is exactly up my street.

The whole thing makes absolute sense mate, the only risk is obviously you are looking to get on when the value has gone. Can I suggest perhaps you do half a stake at early prices and half again if it shortens. That way you get half a stake on at value prices and avoid the other half if the market (or conections) are not speaking in it's favour.

Really good thread mate.

 

[Flipacoin]

Just a couple of questions mate;

You talk about stepping down in class, obviously a maiden isn't a handicap, so how will you judge whether a horse is stepping down in class? What I mean is, a class 5 maiden is not of equal standing as a class 6 handicap?

And the going. I see exactly what you are doing, you are looking to find unexposed horses that possibly haven't had their conditions in their maidens, hence why they have underperformed. But they may also have underperformed due to the distance, for example a horse crying out for 1m2f and running at 7f, is much more likely to underperform than a horse needing softer/firmer ground. Will you be placing more emphasis on horses stepping up in trip?

 

[tractorboy]

Handicap Debutants June 2

Renagisha (IRE) 3.00 Fakenham
The Presidents Man (IRE) 3.00 Fakenham
Antihero 4.30 Fakenham
Boxwood Boy (IRE) 3.20 Kilbeggan
New Buddy (IRE) 3.20 Kilbeggan
Port Of The Oak (IRE) 3.20 Kilbeggan
Face The Music (IRE) 4.20 Kilbeggan
Pjs Dream (IRE) 4.20 Kilbeggan
Mimi And Bow 4.20 Kilbeggan
Shalaman (IRE) 3.10 Listowel
Shutter Island (IRE) 4.10 Listowel
Tiffs Diamond (IRE) 4.10 Listowel
Zafarqand (IRE) 4.40 Listowel
Marchese Marconi (IRE) 4.40 Listowel
The Potting Shed (IRE) 5.15 Southwell

 

[Samacas]

Thanks tractorboy

Just a couple of questions mate;

You talk about stepping down in class, obviously a maiden isn't a handicap, so how will you judge whether a horse is stepping down in class? What I mean is, a class 5 maiden is not of equal standing as a class 6 handicap?

And the going. I see exactly what you are doing, you are looking to find unexposed horses that possibly haven't had their conditions in their maidens, hence why they have underperformed. But they may also have underperformed due to the distance, for example a horse crying out for 1m2f and running at 7f, is much more likely to underperform than a horse needing softer/firmer ground. Will you be placing more emphasis on horses stepping up in trip?

1. If the class of todays handicap race is lower than the class of the maidens the horse has been contesting. e.g. been running class 4 or 5 maidens now in a class 5 or 6 handicap. Or in the case of an Irish runner, the value of todays race is considerably less than its previous races.

2. One of the main considerations is the extra distance. Without going too far into breeding, a 3yo horse that has a middle distance background will probably not have performed too well in its first year as a 2yo in 5-7 furlong maidens but will 'improve dramatically' when upped to 10-12 furlongs in its 2nd year.(well that's the theory)

 

[Flipacoin]

Thanks tractorboy

Just a couple of questions mate;

You talk about stepping down in class, obviously a maiden isn't a handicap, so how will you judge whether a horse is stepping down in class? What I mean is, a class 5 maiden is not of equal standing as a class 6 handicap?

And the going. I see exactly what you are doing, you are looking to find unexposed horses that possibly haven't had their conditions in their maidens, hence why they have underperformed. But they may also have underperformed due to the distance, for example a horse crying out for 1m2f and running at 7f, is much more likely to underperform than a horse needing softer/firmer ground. Will you be placing more emphasis on horses stepping up in trip?

1. If the class of todays handicap race is lower than the class of the maidens the horse has been contesting. e.g. been running class 4 or 5 maidens now in a class 5 or 6 handicap. Or in the case of an Irish runner, the value of todays race is considerably less than its previous races.

2. One of the main considerations is the extra distance. Without going too far into breeding, a 3yo horse that has a middle distance background will probably not have performed too well in its first year as a 2yo in 5-7 furlong maidens but will 'improve dramatically' when upped to 10-12 furlongs in its 2nd year.(well that's the theory)

Thanks mate. I completely understand the logic behind the distance however I would argue that the class drop or raise is irelevant when running in a first handicap. Mainly because the horse will only run in a race that suits it's opening OR.

It's a great thread mate and I have no doubts that unexposed well handicapped horses are the key.

Keep up the good work!

 

[Samacas]

Thanks mate. I completely understand the logic behind the distance however I would argue that the class drop or raise is irelevant when running in a first handicap. Mainly because the horse will only run in a race that suits it's opening OR.

It's a great thread mate and I have no doubts that unexposed well handicapped horses are the key.

Keep up the good work!

That's exactly the point. The horse has been deliberately given 3 or 4 'wrong races' to keep its OR down for its first handicap, allowing it to run in a poorer quality race below its real ability.

 

[Flipacoin]

Thanks mate. I completely understand the logic behind the distance however I would argue that the class drop or raise is irelevant when running in a first handicap. Mainly because the horse will only run in a race that suits it's opening OR.

It's a great thread mate and I have no doubts that unexposed well handicapped horses are the key.

Keep up the good work!

That's exactly the point. The horse has been deliberately given 3 or 4 'wrong races' to keep its OR down for its first handicap, allowing it to run in a poorer quality race below its real ability.

I totally understand that reagarding the distance mate.

But I think you may be missing a winner or two by excluding them on account of class. I've seen class 5 maiden winners go straight into pattern races and I've seen class 4 maiden placed horses struggle in class 5 handicaps.

I'm eagerly awaiting your analysis of suitable runners!

The 10/1 shot winner yesterday. Out of Gallileo, clearly bred for distance, and available at 16/1! A steal. Hopefully more can be found!

 

[mlmrob]

There is some mileage in this but the trouble is the 'edge' may well have gone as there are a few people already adopting this approach.
Stoute, Gosden and Prescott have a strike rate of around 40% with maidens running for the first time in handicap and stepping up in distance by 2 to 4 furlongs.
Jamie Osborne strikes at around 30% and has a healthy LSP. Plus there are other yards you would avoid like Brian Meehan who is 0-18.

Have fun guys and I hope you get an edge as the work you are putting in will be well worth it.

 

[tractorboy]

Handicap Debutants June 3

Vicky Valentine 8.15 Carlisle
Nelson Quay (IRE) 8.45 Carlisle
Natures Law (IRE) 8.45 Carlisle
Burren View Lady (IRE) 8.45 Carlisle
Confusing 8.45 Carlisle
Rio Cato 6.05 Chepstow
Unmoothaj 3.15 Leicester
Tinghir (IRE) 3.15 Leicester
Bold Sniper 3.15 Leicester
Spider Baby (IRE) 2.50 Listowel
Dear Boss (IRE) 2.50 Listowel
Pleased As Punch (IRE) 2.50 Listowel
Dick Dundee 2.50 Listowel
Kinneagh Cross (IRE) 3.20 Listowel
Belmont Exit (IRE) 3.20 Listowel
Zalty (FR) 5.05 Naas
Highest Praise 5.05 Naas
Street Party (IRE) 5.05 Naas
Rain God (USA) 5.05 Naas
Slipper Satin (IRE) 5.40 Naas
Bint Nayef (IRE) 5.40 Naas
Drifting Mist 5.40 Naas
Empress Of Tara (IRE) 5.40 Naas
Nabat Ali 5.40 Naas
On With The Dance (IRE) 6.30 Windsor
Breccbennach 6.30 Windsor
Bold And Free 6.30 Windsor

 

[tractorboy]

Handicap Debutants June 4

Rattlin 6.40 Hexham
Black Velvet Belle (IRE) 7.40 Hexham
Bertielicious 8.40 Hexham
Carneades (IRE) 3.45 Lingfield
Chandelle Celeste 3.45 Lingfield
Poitin 4.15 Lingfield
Cavalieri (IRE) 3.00 Ripon
Tuscan Fun 3.00 Ripon
Jackaddock 3.00 Ripon
Green Monkey 5.55 Yarmouth
Blessing Box 5.55 Yarmouth
Shamiana 5.55 Yarmouth
Estiqaama (USA) 6.25 Yarmouth
Atmanna 6.25 Yarmouth
Simply Dreaming 7.25 Yarmouth

 

[tractorboy]

Handicap Debutants June 5

Mazarak (IRE) 6.55 Fairyhouse
Art Scene (IRE) 7.25 Fairyhouse
Chance Me (IRE) 7.25 Fairyhouse
Reckless Lad (IRE) 7.25 Fairyhouse
Carenza (IRE) 7.25 Fairyhouse
Silldora (IRE) 7.25 Fairyhouse
Bumble Bee Slim 7.25 Fairyhouse
Sister Rita (IRE) 8.25 Fairyhouse
I Fought The Law (IRE) 8.55 Fairyhouse
Nareusya (IRE) 8.55 Fairyhouse
Intrepid (IRE) 9.00 Kempton
Antonius Lad (IRE) 4.20 Newton Abbot
Lough Derg Way (IRE) 4.50 Newton Abbot
Mon Reve 5.20 Newton Abbot
Miss Tinks 5.20 Newton Abbot
Wadham Hill 5.20 Newton Abbot
Rolen Sly 7.15 Ripon
Rock of Ages 2.00 Southwell
Peninsula 2.00 Southwell
Flirtinaskirt 3.30 Southwell
Sound Affects 4.30 Southwell
Rose Of May (IRE) 5.00 Southwell
Queen Hermione (IRE) 5.00 Southwell

 

[tractorboy]

Handicap Debutants June 6

Doctors Gift 4.15 Brighton
Dalliefour (IRE) 4.15 Brighton
Spieta (IRE) 4.15 Brighton
London Bridge (USA) 4.15 Brighton
Dama De La Noche (IRE) 4.50 Brighton
Smart Alice 4.50 Brighton
Ruff Luck 4.50 Brighton
Assertive Agent 5.50 Brighton
Atilia 5.50 Brighton
Is This Love (IRE) 5.50 Brighton
Asian Trader 6.50 Sandown
Rayaheen 7.55 Sandown
Altharoos (IRE) 7.55 Sandown
Czech It Out (IRE) 7.55 Sandown
Rapscallion Deep (IRE) 3.15 Thirsk
Le Deluge (FR) 5.00 Thirsk
Ajraam (USA) 5.00 Thirsk
Beyond Berlin (IRE) 7.15 Tipperary
Wild West (IRE) 8.40 Worcester
Red Rosso 9.10 Worcester
Scorer (IRE) 3.25 Ffos Las
Tarmac Girl 3.25 Ffos Las

 

[tractorboy]

Handicap Debutants June 7

Followeveryrainbow 4.10 Bath
Azelle 4.10 Bath
Waverunner 4.10 Bath
Bee Jay Kay 4.10 Bath
Double Star 4.45 Bath
Just Isla 4.45 Bath
Culture Trip 5.15 Bath
Dawn Rock 5.15 Bath
Port Of The Oak (IRE) 5.40 Downpatrick
Obispo (IRE) 5.40 Downpatrick
Tullydonnell Flyer (IRE) 5.40 Downpatrick
Shershewill (IRE) 6.10 Downpatrick
Mrs Henderson 6.10 Downpatrick
Ultra Light (FR) 6.10 Downpatrick
Ennistown 9.20 Haydock
Song Light 9.20 Haydock
Zeftan (IRE) 6.20 Leopardstown
Dynaperformer (IRE) 6.50 Leopardstown
Massinis Trap (IRE) 8.20 Leopardstown
Can You Conga 7.35 Pontefract
Funding Deficit (IRE) 7.35 Pontefract
Strawberry Jam 8.05 Pontefract
Duke Of Perth 8.05 Pontefract
Chevalgris 8.05 Pontefract
Nardin 2.40 Newmarket (July)
Midnight Flower (IRE) 2.40 Newmarket (July)
Top Offer 3.45 Newmarket (July)
Chesterfield (IRE) 4.20 Newmarket (July)
Number One London (IRE) 4.20 Newmarket (July)
Mr Fitzroy (IRE) 4.20 Newmarket (July)
Feel Like Dancing 4.20 Newmarket (July)
Mankini (IRE) 5.30 Newmarket (July)

 

[tractorboy]

Handicap Debutants June 8

Cowslip 4.45 Catterick
Miss Macnamara (IRE) 4.45 Catterick
Mespone (FR) 3.20 Chester
Concra Girl (IRE) 2.50 Navan
Bosworth Field (USA) 2.50 Navan
Dancing Cosmos (IRE) 2.50 Navan
Tessie Jubilee (IRE) 3.25 Navan
Elastomer (FR) 3.25 Navan
Native Realm (IRE) 5.35 Navan
Louis Phillipe (IRE) 6.15 Stratford
Katnapping 6.15 Stratford
Valbchek (IRE) 2.55 Newmarket (July)
Granell (IRE) 4.40 Newmarket (July)
Ghost Runner (IRE) 4.40 Newmarket (July)
Funk Soul Brother 4.40 Newmarket (July)

 

[tractorboy]

Handicap Debutants June 9

Regal Power 3.20 Curragh
Maggie Dalton (IRE) 4.20 Curragh
Majenta (IRE) 4.20 Curragh
Sho Girl (IRE) 4.20 Curragh
Protestant (IRE) 4.50 Curragh
Plinth (IRE) 4.50 Curragh
Tooreen Legend (IRE) 4.50 Curragh
Levanto (IRE) 4.50 Curragh
Zarkiyr (IRE) 4.50 Curragh
Mourani (IRE) 4.50 Curragh
Xclusive 4.45 Nottingham
Triple Aitch (USA) 4.45 Nottingham
The Ginger Berry 4.45 Nottingham
Not Rigg (USA) 4.45 Nottingham
Lucky Prize 4.45 Nottingham
Solidago (IRE) 3.30 Perth
Busted Tycoon (IRE) 5.00 Perth

 

[tractorboy]

Handicap Debutants June 10

Revert (USA) 3.45 Brighton
Sedgemoor Express (IRE) 2.30 Newton Abbot
Haveumistim 2.30 Newton Abbot
Hugo Drax (IRE) 2.30 Newton Abbot
Ice Cool Benny (IRE) 4.00 Newton Abbot
Oscar Jane (IRE) 5.00 Newton Abbot
Its A Fairytale (USA) 6.20 Roscommon
Johannisberger (IRE) 8.20 Roscommon
Claude Monet (BRZ) 7.30 Windsor

 

[tractorboy]

Handicap Debutants June 11

La Madonnina (IRE) 3.50 Fontwell
Listen And Learn (IRE) 3.50 Fontwell
General Girling 5.20 Fontwell
Macs Grey (IRE) 5.20 Fontwell
Amy Farah Fowler (IRE) 7.00 Lingfield
Princess Spirit 7.00 Lingfield
Press Room (USA) 9.00 Lingfield
Twary (USA) 9.00 Lingfield
Snap Bach (IRE) 5.50 Roscommon
Time For Action (IRE) 6.20 Roscommon
Lastofthepilots (IRE) 7.20 Roscommon
Grainne Delight (IRE) 7.20 Roscommon
Elijah Gardner (IRE) 7.20 Roscommon
Pyrus Gold Wind (IRE) 7.20 Roscommon
Craddockstown Lad (IRE) 7.50 Roscommon
Raushan (IRE) 3.30 Salisbury
Iffraaj Pink (IRE) 3.30 Salisbury
Musikhani 3.30 Salisbury
Transluscent (IRE) 4.05 Salisbury
Secretly 4.35 Salisbury
Russian Royale 4.35 Salisbury
Elnadwa (USA) 4.35 Salisbury