Tufnel
Stallion
I think there will always be a conflict in terms of class when dealing with handicaps because as we've all noted you will very rarely find a low weighted contender in a handicap who has a siginficant class advantage over higher weighted horses. That's just the reality of such races. By and large the higher weighted horses will have earned that weight by their achievements. Not always winning achievements granted, but the point remains you will not find many low weights with sparkling credentials based on class alone.
Another overview I've started looking at this week is based on criteria I think plays a part in VDW's Handicap Hurdle method and after research I've found areas where the majority of winners in these races come from. Of course you still need to pick the right one from three or sometimes more options.
In this overview for the race Black Bamboo won today it's interesting to see how those with the recent runs fared when looking at where they were in the weights and the ranks of class they last ran in. I sorted the view on days since last ran for this view.
The 3 I had in my book had class largely on their side but had plenty of runners with more recent efforts ahead of them and the 2 most recent runs were the first 2 home.
And if you look at the handicap hurdle Love From Verona won, the same questions arise on low weighted runners. The 4 lowest weights carried had run in lower class races with 2 of them winning LTO. One of those horses won with 10-0 in a class 11 race whilst the other won with 10-12 in a class 10 race.
Note some of the non runners are still included so ignore those.
Another overview I've started looking at this week is based on criteria I think plays a part in VDW's Handicap Hurdle method and after research I've found areas where the majority of winners in these races come from. Of course you still need to pick the right one from three or sometimes more options.
In this overview for the race Black Bamboo won today it's interesting to see how those with the recent runs fared when looking at where they were in the weights and the ranks of class they last ran in. I sorted the view on days since last ran for this view.
The 3 I had in my book had class largely on their side but had plenty of runners with more recent efforts ahead of them and the 2 most recent runs were the first 2 home.
And if you look at the handicap hurdle Love From Verona won, the same questions arise on low weighted runners. The 4 lowest weights carried had run in lower class races with 2 of them winning LTO. One of those horses won with 10-0 in a class 11 race whilst the other won with 10-12 in a class 10 race.
Note some of the non runners are still included so ignore those.