As Arc weekend is fast approaching, I thought I'd post up my thoughts on the Arc itself.
Shin Emperor ran an excellent race at Leopardstown last time when 3rd in the Irish Champion over 1m 2f, doing his best work in the closing stages. Los Angeles likewise in 4th. This horse is a full brother to 2020 Arc winner Sottsaas who also used the Irish Champion as prep race to the Arc, running 4th and again doing it's best work in the closing stages. Postmark figures have Shin Emperor as within 2lbs of his Arc winning brother and the ground was heavy when Sottsaas won the Arc, so the currently Very Soft conditions should not bother Shin Emperor.
Obviously the main difference between the brothers is Shin Emperor has done almost all his racing in Japan where as Sottsaas ran in France for the vast majority of races. SE ran on well to get 3rd on fast ground in the Japanese Derby over 1m 4f so he gets the trip in top company. That was back in May so the run in Sept at Leopardstown was probably needed.
Los Angeles also ran an excellent race over the shorter trip in the Irish Champion having run over 1m 4f on his previous 3 runs. The Irish Derby win doesn't look anything special on paper but the horse has gone on and delivered where expected to.
Look De Vega won his 3rd start in the French Derby and did it very nicely by 2 lengths at 5/1. The horse was then rested and by all accounts let down putting on a lot of weight. Connections have said they expect him to improve a lot as he is back to his racing weight and has been working very well. They also said making the running last time was not the plan and he didn't have a hard race.
I see these as the main contenders. My order of ranking would be Look De Vega, Shin Emperor and then Los Angeles and I'm going to backing all 3 in a book, but a book that is weighted towards Look De Vega winning more than SE and SE more than LA. I prefer this type of outcome, presuming one of them wins of course, so that my preferred choices collect the lion's share rather than equal payouts all 3.
On past history trends, you'd have to Look De Vega has the best profile, but Shin Emperor may have the Japan challenger hoodoo to contend with but he was actually bred in France and is a full brother to a heavy ground recent Arc winner. Probably Japan's best chance in years I'd say given the opposition.
Shin Emperor ran an excellent race at Leopardstown last time when 3rd in the Irish Champion over 1m 2f, doing his best work in the closing stages. Los Angeles likewise in 4th. This horse is a full brother to 2020 Arc winner Sottsaas who also used the Irish Champion as prep race to the Arc, running 4th and again doing it's best work in the closing stages. Postmark figures have Shin Emperor as within 2lbs of his Arc winning brother and the ground was heavy when Sottsaas won the Arc, so the currently Very Soft conditions should not bother Shin Emperor.
Obviously the main difference between the brothers is Shin Emperor has done almost all his racing in Japan where as Sottsaas ran in France for the vast majority of races. SE ran on well to get 3rd on fast ground in the Japanese Derby over 1m 4f so he gets the trip in top company. That was back in May so the run in Sept at Leopardstown was probably needed.
Los Angeles also ran an excellent race over the shorter trip in the Irish Champion having run over 1m 4f on his previous 3 runs. The Irish Derby win doesn't look anything special on paper but the horse has gone on and delivered where expected to.
Look De Vega won his 3rd start in the French Derby and did it very nicely by 2 lengths at 5/1. The horse was then rested and by all accounts let down putting on a lot of weight. Connections have said they expect him to improve a lot as he is back to his racing weight and has been working very well. They also said making the running last time was not the plan and he didn't have a hard race.
I see these as the main contenders. My order of ranking would be Look De Vega, Shin Emperor and then Los Angeles and I'm going to backing all 3 in a book, but a book that is weighted towards Look De Vega winning more than SE and SE more than LA. I prefer this type of outcome, presuming one of them wins of course, so that my preferred choices collect the lion's share rather than equal payouts all 3.
On past history trends, you'd have to Look De Vega has the best profile, but Shin Emperor may have the Japan challenger hoodoo to contend with but he was actually bred in France and is a full brother to a heavy ground recent Arc winner. Probably Japan's best chance in years I'd say given the opposition.